[CT27]

I was thinking about one of the underlying notions of Blue Planet.

The question I had was:  if the events of AoA hadn't happened, would any conflict between the GTVA and UEF really been as short as people seem to think?  It's been a while since I read the Blue Planet fiction, but IIRC the original goal of the 14th Battlegroup was to pretend to want peace and then park itself over Earth and demand surrender/integration at gunpoint (and since the UEF fleet wouldn't be in a militarized posture against the GTVA it's been argued they would surrender quickly and any 'war' would be over in minutes).

However, even without AoA happening, would the 14th's people really have been willing to do this?  Would they really obey orders to basically nuke parts of Earth, especially after the common soldier has been told they're trying for peace?  If the UEF didn't surrender immediately, they would have to otherwise it would just be a bluff and they wouldn't be taken seriously any more. .  In other words, what would happen if the UEF at this point said "No, we don't surrender"?


Basically, even if without the AoA experience, would the 14th really have been willing to strike Earth (especially under false pretenses)?

[Herra Tohtori]

The crews of the ships follow orders from their captains and officers. Officers enforce their captain's authority, and captains follow the orders of the commander of the fleet. The orders to begin occupation/subjugation of Sol were not widely known; if they had been, much of the crews probably would have been highly uneasy with the mission to begin with, rather than being excited and hopeful to see the Earth again. I don't think even the ship captains were privy to the orders - I would think only Admiral Bei and perhaps his immediate staff were aware of the true orders.

As it were, the effects of Age of Aquarius probably had a highly personal effect on the commander of the 14th Battle Group - Admiral Bei. My interpretation is that the only reason why much of the 14th BG refused to follow GTVA high command's orders was because Admiral Bei refused to follow those orders, and that set off the effect of individual captains of the fleet having to choose their allegiance - to their immediate commanding officer (and possibly the call of their ethics) or to their commission as an officer in the GTVA. Many of them chose to follow Admiral Bei and defect from the GTVA - or, as the case may be, refuse to execute orders that they considered either illegal, or just going against GTVA's principles. Considering the ease at which human beings follow authority, I doubt any mass defection and dereliction of duty would have happened without Admiral Bei's actions working as a catalyst.


So, I don't think the events in AoA were that big of a change for the majority of the 14th BG - aside from being rather distressing and probably traumatic for some - but for some key personnel, it may have made them see things from a different perspective. Instead of asking would the *entire battle group* abandoned their task, a better question is would Admiral Bei have refused the orders without the events of Age of Aquarius?


It's certainly possible, but unlikely. At the beginning of the campaign, he is portrayed as a focused, detached, even bitter, career officer. At the end of the campaign, he's in a completely different mental state and probably has a lot of new, different motivators affecting his decision-making.


As for why so many of the captains chose to follow Bei rather than remain with the GTVA, there are many reasons why that may be the case. One of which would be that when a group of people goes through a traumatic experience, such as mortal danger in battle, they tend to form rather strong bonds. Maybe many of the battle group's captains had a sense of loyalty to Admiral Bei as a result of that type of bond?

Or maybe 14th BG just happened to have statistically unusual amount of officers with high morals and they just felt the orders were wrong, and when Bei refused the orders it gave them an "out" by following his example?

Or maybe they *were* changed by the events of the AoA. Who knows? What do you think?

[headdie]

I think there is something to be said for the shared experience explanation offered by Herra Tohtorio.

On arriving in Sol, Admiral Bei had just lead his command through a harrowing experience with the majority of his command in tact and without making decisions with unpleasant repercussions .  as Herra says, this builds up a bond of respect and loyalty like no other indeed some of the officers may have even felt honor bound to follow Bei as a result.

As for who knew, I think the ship captains and airwing commanders would have to had been in the loop on the outline of the plan and at least their specific bits in order to ensure everyone was in the needed places to provide maximum threat when the threat was made and to ensure the crews followed their orders when the move was made.

[Lowane]

I think that if the original GTVA plan had proceeded as planned, there would not have been much hesitation, yet alone a mass defection, simply because there isn't much time to think in the heat of battle. Look at how much hesitation the 14th showed when they blew up the Renjian. Namely, zero.

The majority probably wouldn't have liked what they were doing, but given the fact most of those were veterans, I cannot see mass defections or abandoning of posts in the middle of a combat situation.

[CT27]

Herro brings up a good point that Admiral Bei may have been the catalyst for mass defections.

Let me phrase the question a slightly different way then:  would Bei have defected without the events of AoA?  Since it's probable he was one of the few who knew the 'real' orders, would he have carried out the original plan without AoA happening?  Would he have been willing to attack Earth or would he have refused anyways?

[AdmiralRalwood]

Since it's probable he was one of the few who knew the 'real' orders,

It's not just probable; it's explicitly stated.

I think it's highly likely Bei would have carried out his orders if the Vishnans hadn't interfered; all of his orders.

[Luis Dias]

I think it's highly likely there were computer models that assessed the likelihood of the 14th to follow all the orders and they predicted they would be obeyed regardless of the moral situation. Alas, the whole reason they went to war was precisely because of social computer models that predicted a horrible indictment with this reunion with Sol. It would be silly for them then not to use similar models to predict their own crews' reaction to this controversial mission.

It's a good question, because it doesn't feel completely right. You tellin me that a pilot, upon seeing the beauty that Earth is for the first time in their lives (for many at least), would then not hesitate to fire upon Terran ships? Threaten them with nukes and so on and so forth? At least some bewilderment would definitely occur. Nevertheless, this was the designed plan, and so it was bound to be successful at least in its attempted execution.

[headdie]

Here is something else to consider.  We know who the UEF are, the 14th didnt, the GTVA had very tight control on the data coming from Sol and the 14th had no way to verify what they were told.  Tell those ships crews that the local government is corrupt and regularly engages in acts criminalized under BETAC and suddenly in their eyes this is the act of a swift blow designed to minimize the impact of the confrontation on the civilian population while rescuing them from an evil regime.

[Luis Dias]

Oh sure, complete propaganda could be a useful tool. But then why wasn't it used beforehand as a briefing mechanism to control expectations? Clearly they didn't trust their own propagandist abilities.

[headdie]

We enter at the point where all preparations have been made, we have no idea what the battle group has been briefed regarding the operation in the run up

[The E]

Here is something else to consider.  We know who the UEF are, the 14th didnt, the GTVA had very tight control on the data coming from Sol and the 14th had no way to verify what they were told.  Tell those ships crews that the local government is corrupt and regularly engages in acts criminalized under BETAC and suddenly in their eyes this is the act of a swift blow designed to minimize the impact of the confrontation on the civilian population while rescuing them from an evil regime.

The big lie doesn't work that well unless you can kill anyone who can contradict you.

[headdie]

Here is something else to consider.  We know who the UEF are, the 14th didnt, the GTVA had very tight control on the data coming from Sol and the 14th had no way to verify what they were told.  Tell those ships crews that the local government is corrupt and regularly engages in acts criminalized under BETAC and suddenly in their eyes this is the act of a swift blow designed to minimize the impact of the confrontation on the civilian population while rescuing them from an evil regime.

The big lie doesn't work that well unless you can kill anyone who can contradict you.

But who can contradict you? whistle blowers? discredit them and put them on trial, who else if there?  anyway, how long does the ruse need to hold up for, couple of days, a week perhaps from briefing to execution? before it is too late to do anything about it

[Luis Dias]

We enter at the point where all preparations have been made, we have no idea what the battle group has been briefed regarding the operation in the run up

Yep, well at least we know that the pilots didn't have a clue, and these could be a major source of problems. Ship captains, for instance, we have no idea.

[CT27]

I think it's highly likely Bei would have carried out his orders if the Vishnans hadn't interfered; all of his orders.

I guess I'm having a slight bit of trouble seeing it with Admiral Bei then.  I'm not sure how he'd have been willing to attack Earth before all this happened.  If he was willing to defect after AoA, I'm guessing he would have at least questioned the orders to commit deceit and attack Earth beforehand.

[Luis Dias]

I actually believe the opposite. There's an obvious arc about Bei himself, who is basically playing "Steele" at the get go, armoring himself against his own family that he feels has let him down, emotions and all kinds of these thoughts are probably just a problem to be ignored. At the end, he makes amends with his son and deflects. He's a completely different person. Because the story doesn't focus on the Admiral, perhaps it's not as obvious for us to see, but given all we know, it's clear there's a sharp emotional arc happening in Bei's mind, and if so, hell yes, he would have followed every single order before. The Vishnans have clearly tackled his spirit.

[General Battuta]

As a direct follow-up to that point, how well would Lopez have handled the events of AoA?

[The E]

I think it's highly likely Bei would have carried out his orders if the Vishnans hadn't interfered; all of his orders.

I guess I'm having a slight bit of trouble seeing it with Admiral Bei then.  I'm not sure how he'd have been willing to attack Earth before all this happened.  If he was willing to defect after AoA, I'm guessing he would have at least questioned the orders to commit deceit and attack Earth beforehand.

Look at it another way: Would the GTVA, as depicted in BP, give this job to an Admiral who they cannot trust to execute the plan? Bei would have been involved in planning this operation from very early on, with multiple vetting passes before he was actually chosen to lead it.

[Phantom Hoover]

Presumably, though, GTVA command (and our absent friends at Blackbird Village) would have noticed in screening that Admiral Bei's estranged son was a senior fighter pilot in his command. Was it just not a big enough deal to knock him from first choice?

[The E]

Presumably, though, GTVA command (and our absent friends at Blackbird Village) would have noticed in screening that Admiral Bei's estranged son was a senior fighter pilot in his command. Was it just not a big enough deal to knock him from first choice?

I think so. I guess they figured that whatever went on between them personally didn't impact their professional relationship.

Also, it may have come down to either using Orestes and Temeraire and their command crews, or sending in Steele, who would undoubtedly be as capable as Bei in a tactical sense, but who would probably **** up the political side of it all in some unpredictable way due to him not being able to build a rapport with the UEF authorities (Not saying he's incompetent as a politician, just that Bei is much better at it than he is).

[General Battuta]

The question for me is what would've happened to Steele's command in the alternate universe once they ended up scattered — or if in fact they would've ended up scattered at all. So much of the 14th's success depended on the confident, independent, aggressive action of its constituent elements even under some really unexpected circumstances.