Author Topic: Trumpety Nuttery Trumpety Trumps  (Read 52828 times)

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Offline watsisname

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Re: Trumpety Nuttery Trumpety Trumps
Surface temperatures right now:


Departure of current surface temperatures from climatology:



Yeah, some places are momentarily much colder than normal.  It is not unusual to see -10C or even -20C anomalies.  However, for every bit of area that is below normal, I guarantee there is almost always enough area that is above normal enough to make up for it.  I guarantee that if you do the math and integrate the temperature anomaly over the whole surface, especially over a period of at least a week or two (the global atmospheric circulation time, thereabouts), you'll end up with a positive anomaly of about a degree Celsius.  But hey, you don't have to take my word for that.  Let's try it, right now:

Current global anomaly:


Global anomaly averaged over 5 day interval:


Global anomaly averaged over 1-month interval:



Notice the variations become smoother and smaller in magnitude.  Notice also that they average out to a positive anomaly.   This is how the global warming signal becomes apparent.  This is the difference between local weather and global climate.  This is why I cringe every time someone uses the former to make an argument about the latter, and want to smack them with a textbook on atmospheric science.

NOAA does this sort of analysis regularly, too, by the month and by the year.
« Last Edit: January 25, 2016, 11:57:03 pm by watsisname »
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Offline karajorma

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Re: Trumpety Nuttery Trumpety Trumps
That's why Climate Change is now the preferred term for many people. To many don't have a ****ing clue that Global Warming != no winter.
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Offline -Joshua-

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Re: Trumpety Nuttery Trumpety Trumps
XKCD has a decent short version (Although I was under the impression that the difference was closer to six degrees).

Global warming (or anthropogenic climate change) is not only about the increase of the temperature (although there is a global increase), but also about that global increase of temperature causing a bunch of knock-on effects where our ecologies are not adapted to yet. The acidification of the ocean has some serious effects on marine ecosystems, which is important because we eat that stuff. The rising of the oceans has effects on island nations right now. That sorta thing. Less snowballs to throw at one another each year is the least of our worries.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2016, 07:20:02 am by -Joshua- »

 

Offline watsisname

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Re: Trumpety Nuttery Trumpety Trumps
XKCD has a decent short version (Although I was under the impression that the difference was closer to six degrees).

Yeah, the exact number depends on the datasets and how you analyze them.  It's straightforward to determine the localized change in temperature from ice cores (which show ΔT of 6C or even 9C), but then it takes some work to derive the change in global average from these and other paleoclimate data.  What we find is that the difference in global average is a bit less than what you see in the ice cores (mainly because the sea surface temps don't change as much), and it's closer to 4 or 5C.

It is pretty amazing that such small changes in global average temperature equate to profound changes in the climate, but that's how planetary climate works. :)  What's really interesting is that throughout Earth history, the climate seems to have equilibrium states.  The global temperatures doesn't just fluctuate randomly, but prefers to oscillate between certain values.  If you think of graphs of potentials, it's just like the planetary temperature function has a bunch of hills and valleys, and a particular perturbation can shift you over to an entirely new equilibrium.  The ice age cycles are a well understood part of this, but we are only just beginning to understand what kind of states lie in the opposite direction, for rapid changes in temperature.  We've never encountered 3, 4, 5, 6... 7(?!) degree Celsius increases from current temperature over hundred year timescales before.  To see one or two "Ice Age Units" in the positive sense is really strange to contemplate.
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Offline Dragon

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Re: Trumpety Nuttery Trumpety Trumps
Let me try to bring this thread back on topic with another ridiculous statement of Trump's. Supposedly, Mexico can afford to spend billions on building a wall because it has a trade deficit:
http://www.politifact.com/florida/statements/2016/jan/26/donald-trump/donald-trump-says-course-mexico-can-pay-wall-becau/
Now, how did Trump become rich again? He's now proven that not only he doesn't understand climatology, he also fails at economics.

Hmm, that reminds me of some other guy from the first half of 20th century. Huge, controversial ideology, scores of die-hard supporters, megalomaniac, narcissist and completely, utterly incompetent at actually running the show once he got into power. Hitler comparisons are all the rage these days, but we should remember that atrocities he committed were only one problem with him. The other problem was his monumental incompetence, which drove Nazi Germany into ground. He could get people to follow him, but what he couldn't do was to go and lead them someplace sensible (instead proudly marching his nation straight into a dumpster). If elected, I'm pretty sure Trump would be the same thing, and the more I read about him, the stronger that impression becomes. With no prior experience with governing, poor business record (someone already mentioned he's gone bankrupt more than once) and a way of thinking unsuited for a position of power, all he can do is make a horrible mess that the next five presidents will be working hard to undo.

 

Offline Galemp

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Re: Trumpety Nuttery Trumpety Trumps
...next presidents? Ha! Good one.
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Offline Bobboau

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Re: Trumpety Nuttery Trumpety Trumps
b...but it's Obama that's gonna enact martial law and suspend elections!
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Offline Galemp

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Re: Trumpety Nuttery Trumpety Trumps
The Republicans better do that preemptively and make sure the Democrats can't!
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Offline BTA

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Re: Trumpety Nuttery Trumpety Trumps
Quote
while Americans are freezing their butts off (undoubtedly to their chagrin).

American here,

It was in the 60s F in December, I saw squirrels out and roaming Christmas week. Because of the El Nino we're having an abnormally warm winter in New England, although IIRC there are parts of Western US that are having a colder winter, but don't quote me on that.

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Offline Bobboau

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Re: Trumpety Nuttery Trumpety Trumps
it was actually more than 70F on christmas in New York City. this broke the previous temperature by like 10 degrees or something.
keep that little anecdote in mind next time you encounter a climate change denialist who throws a snowball at you as proof there is no global warming.
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Offline Dragon

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Re: Trumpety Nuttery Trumpety Trumps
I probably shouldn't used a blanket statement "Americans", since this country happens to span such a wide range of latitudes that any such statement is going to be inaccurate somewhere. :) Also, keep in mind that I mean "current" weather. Winters getting colder don't preclude summers getting warmer (you can very well have a the warmest summer and the coldest winter in the same year, which has happened in some places). The point was, climate is going out of whack, it's not as simple as a 1 degree increase across the board.

I heard a lot of news about this winter being really hard on the US, or at least the part that has a meaningful winter (Florida, for example, is pretty balmy for the entire year). On the other hand, Eastern Europe has been getting light winters for the last few years. I wanted to illustrate that there is a plainly visible change in climate, even if it's indicated by lower temperatures in some areas.

 

Offline Bobboau

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Re: Trumpety Nuttery Trumpety Trumps
we just had a major snow storm, but aside from that so far this winter has been rather mild.
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Offline Luis Dias

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Re: Trumpety Nuttery Trumpety Trumps
Climate Change is a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese in order for americans to accept giving money to Africa.

I mean, it's obvious.

 

Offline Galemp

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Re: Trumpety Nuttery Trumpety Trumps
we just had a major snow storm, but aside from that so far this winter has been rather mild.

Remember the water cycle? Snow comes from clouds, which come from water vapor, which come from... warm oceans. Warmer water means MORE precipitation. Thinking that more snow comes from colder temperatures makes about as much sense as saying you don't need sunglasses in the winter.
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Offline Dragon

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Re: Trumpety Nuttery Trumpety Trumps
As a matter of fact, very cold winters tend to have little in terms of snow, at least in Poland. All that moisture freezes out of the air and there's nothing left to form snow. The coldest weather we get is usually (quite ironically) accompanied by a bright and sunny sky (the sun helps surprisingly little, though it does. Nights are when it gets truly horrible), as well as the air being extremely dry.

That said, from what I know about weather in US, in at least a few places, it's the fact that there is snow (as opposed to rain) that is the big deal. Thanks to the Gulfstream, the US weather is warmer than Europe at an equivalent latitude. I heard reports that it's getting messed up by the climate change and could even reverse its flow at some point, causing a radical shift in climate.

 

Offline watsisname

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Re: Trumpety Nuttery Trumpety Trumps
Quote
As a matter of fact, very cold winters tend to have little in terms of snow, at least in Poland. All that moisture freezes out of the air and there's nothing left to form snow. The coldest weather we get is usually (quite ironically) accompanied by a bright and sunny sky (the sun helps surprisingly little, though it does. Nights are when it gets truly horrible), as well as the air being extremely dry.

I get the same kind of thing here in western Washington.  Our coldest days come when we have modified Arctic airmass flow in from the northeast through a gap in the mountains, something that happens maybe once or twice a winter.  It's an amazing thing to experience, because the weather will suddenly shift from calm, overcast, and mild (like 40s F) to temperatures in the teens or single digits, 60 to 100mph winds, and the most crystal clear blue sky you've ever seen.  Not even a hint of haze in the air.  Mountains 50+ miles away seem as if they're next door.  It's beautiful if you can stand the windchill. :)

Anyway, yeah.  Temperature of an airmass is very well correlated to its precipitable water content.  Cold air tends to be dry, and significant snowfall tends to happen with temperatures closer to freezing.  So some places can be expected to get more snowfall as the climate warms.  That said, it's still pretty complicated because one also has to consider regional changes in seasonal precipitation, which is hard.  Only in the last few years has computational power advanced enough for high resolution regional climate modelling to see these kinds of changes.

Quote
I heard reports that it's getting messed up by the climate change and could even reverse its flow at some point, causing a radical shift in climate.

The Gulf Stream?  That would surprise me -- my understanding was that ocean circulation takes a long time to respond to these changes, and I can't imagine how it would reverse, since the circulation is essentially governed by pole-ward heat flow and the Earth's rotation.  But I could be wrong.  I haven't been keeping up with the literature as well now that I don't have free access to all the journals. :(  Would you happen to have any good links handy?  I'd love to read up on it.
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Offline -Joshua-

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Re: Trumpety Nuttery Trumpety Trumps
Dragon, are you sure these are not the so called jet streams that are being affected?

 

Offline karajorma

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Re: Trumpety Nuttery Trumpety Trumps
The Gulf Stream?  That would surprise me -- my understanding was that ocean circulation takes a long time to respond to these changes, and I can't imagine how it would reverse, since the circulation is essentially governed by pole-ward heat flow and the Earth's rotation.  But I could be wrong.  I haven't been keeping up with the literature as well now that I don't have free access to all the journals. :(  Would you happen to have any good links handy?  I'd love to read up on it.

The gulf stream slowdown is definitely a thing. It's already down by 15% in fact. It's pretty famous in the UK cause we're going to be the most strongly affected by it.

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/gulf-stream-is-slowing-down-faster-than-ever-scientists-say-10128700.html

Dragon is wrong about the direction though. It's actually Europe that is warmer because of it. Especially the UK (compare the amount of snow in the London vs somewhere far south of it like New York).
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Offline Luis Dias

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Re: Trumpety Nuttery Trumpety Trumps
Portugal has relatively the same latitude as New York. Bright, sunny Portugal.

 

Offline Luis Dias

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Re: Trumpety Nuttery Trumpety Trumps
Trump has just retweeted this pic. The circus train never ends.