Author Topic: Of motivations and Shivans  (Read 28722 times)

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Offline General Battuta

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Re: Of motivations and Shivans
Merlin is a very smart product of experience with turbopumps. The design process is faster and more field-iterative than is conventional for rockets, but it's closer to classically human problem-solving than to something like a neural net, because the bulk of the computation is performed in models rather than in praxis. They started with a lot of memory about past designs, and their design lineage is basically, well, a line — they don't mutate and radiate, they pick optimae and go for them. The system also has global memory (in the form of the humans running it), which many alternate algorithms neglect or actively avoid.

e: the key distinction Phoover is making is that SpaceX has a drawing board, whereas something like an ant hive or a market solves problems without any individual component even knowing there is a problem or that it's working for a solution.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2015, 10:59:23 am by General Battuta »

 

Offline Goober5000

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Re: Of motivations and Shivans
e: the key distinction Phoover is making is that SpaceX has a drawing board, whereas something like an ant hive or a market solves problems without any individual component even knowing there is a problem or that it's working for a solution.

Now that I will concede.  The point I wanted to make about SpaceX is that they aren't afraid to try completely new approaches or jettison existing paradigms, and they disdain a lot of the stovepiping that you see in traditional manufacturing.  They certainly aren't a neural network or an ant colony, but on the spectrum of organization, they are closer than their competitors.  Only by trying radical approaches can you manufacture a $5000 part that used to cost $100,000.

Also, I think we've hijacked Kestrellius's thread.

 
Re: Of motivations and Shivans
Yes, you absolutely have.
The good Christian should beware of mathematicians, and all those who make empty prophecies. The danger already exists that the mathematicians have made a covenant with the devil to darken the spirit and to confine man in the bonds of Hell.

 

Offline NGTM-1R

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Re: Of motivations and Shivans
If you aren't up to speed you should swing by the BP forum and ask the analysts to fill you in, I think you'd like a lot of the stuff they're finding (and I'd be very happy to have your reaction.)

With some regret, no. I still entertain ideas on the subject; I'm concerned they remain my own ideas, if that makes sense.
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Offline General Battuta

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Re: Of motivations and Shivans
It doesn't make much sense to me, but I can respect it.

 

Offline qwadtep

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Re: Of motivations and Shivans
I'm going to be the odd one out and say that Shivan behavior has never struck me as random trial-and-error. There's a clear pattern of escalation: Bosch sends a cruiser and the Shivans send a stronger cruiser; the GTVA responds with corvettes and the Shivans escalate with a destroyer; the GTVA sorties several destroyers and the Shivans call in a juggernaut; the GTVA holds the line with its own juggernaut and the Shivans flood the system with a fleet of juggernauts. It's always a proportional response, never a "let's swarm the Colossus with strike craft and divine its weaknesses by their success or failure" type of thing.

I find, rather, that the Shivans behave reminiscent of an immune system. On a skirmish level, the Shivan response is largely reflexive and disorganized, comparable to coughing or sneezing. As damage accrues, the larger body takes notice and begins an inflammatory response, increasing asset flow to the affected area. If a pathogen is found, it is either immediately identified if previously encountered, or analyzed for its antigenic properties (numbers, tactics, technological level, and other strategic information) according to which a response is formulated. The supernova of Capella may have been no different than the draining of a pustule.

Which raises a question I find more horrifying than anything the Shivans can do themselves--if a species of genocidal, star-destroying aliens is just an immune system, what the hell is the full organism?

 

Offline General Battuta

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Re: Of motivations and Shivans
I don't think Shivan behavior has ever seemed like random trial-and-error either.

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NEMESIS NOW Integrated Outcomes Report

Introduction

If you're reading this you are part of the select Upsilon-plus group cleared for NEMESIS NOW. The intelligence community has spent a decade wailing over the explosive complexity of joint analysis on Shivan behavior during the Second Incursion. After ten years of listening to jumped-up experts on the effect of Sirius tax structures in Regulan election outcomes bleating about Vasudan psycholinguistic techniques and suggesting that Shivan behavior might be 'genuinely alien', our task force coalesced out of the collective resentment and irritation of people whose thoughts actually matter.

Wise figures in our leadership structure empowered NEMESIS NOW to traverse the entire alphabet of acronyms, callsigns, stacks, matrices, workflows, and footprints devoted to Shivan analysis. From this journey we return with several transparently exploitative gems of existential horror designed to scare you away and let us get back to work. This is one of them.

Looking Back

Most of you pretend to understand the differences in Shivan behavior between the Great War and the Second Incursion. The core fact you must grasp about the Second Incursion is that Shivan behavior was tactically diffuse, initially much like a set of agents with no global control, but later developed strategic direction. In the opening stages of the encounter, the Shivans reacted sluggishly, executing what we term an 'inflammatory response' to Bosch's incursion. As Allied presence in the nebula escalated, the Shivans began to emit a wide spectrum of behaviors, including a stereotyped recapitulation of Great War strategy that culminated in the GTD Phoenicia's bearbaiting operation and the famous 'High Noon' engagement in Capella. During this strategic epoch, Allied forces fought against a blind algorithm.

We cracked the Shivan behavioral code when we abandoned top-down, teleological analysis and trusted our models to identify patterns. When we extract a pattern from noise, we call it a signal. All Shivan behavior during these opening stages fits within one broad, chaotic signal.

As the Incursion proceeds, we begin to detect a second signal in the Shivan behavioral model. Here and there, strategic elements and tactical assets suddenly depart from the inflammatory response. Yet there is no clear phase transition, as we observed during the Great War after the destruction of the Lucifer. Instead, this signal operates within the inflammatory ladder, redirecting and manipulating elements already in play. For the sake of your limited imaginations we will risk anthropomorphizing and suggest its behavior is almost covert.

Something within the Shivan behavioral system began goal-directed behavior. The result was the detonation of the Capella star. What other outcomes can we attribute to this second signal, this specter in the demon apparatus? We can immediately extract one actionable piece of intelligence: if any of your colleagues or subordinates suggest the action of a 'Shivan queen' or 'hive mind', you can safely have them fired.

By altering the parameters of Shivan behavior across a range of possible (and some contrafactually impossible) states, we can bootstrap models of Shivan cognition. When these models predict Shivan behavior that resembles actual recorded encounters, we gain confidence in the underlying assumptions. In several scenarios, we used Great War behavioral patterns to operate Shivan forces during the Second Incursion. Allied casualties approached or equaled the ceiling value.

In some scenarios, the model of best fit incorporates a third force in play. We can observe this third force only by its interactions with the Shivan behavioral parameters. In many of these models, the Shivan 'second signal' is oriented partly or even wholly in response to the third player.

Beyond a three-player game, diminishing fit returns set in. In this respect our work probably resembles your sex life.

 
Re: Of motivations and Shivans
Okay seriously, what are you guys talking about? You keep making all these apparently disconnected posts with grandiose explanations of things that don't seem to have anything to do with anything. I'm guessing it's about Shivan organization, and there was some big conversation about that at some point that I don't know about, and you're referring to that, but all this seems to just come out of nowhere.

And I hate being confused.  :(

 

Offline qwadtep

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Re: Of motivations and Shivans
You draw a line between the world of fighters and armor and briefings, and the world of dreams and portents, but this dreamscape, this forum thread, is a glimpse into a world just as real and deadly; a place of stratagems and treachery and power that seems as strange to you as a briefing would seem to an ape.

(In all seriousness: we're trying to use Shivan tactics to divine Shivan behavior, and thus figure out Shivan motives. It's a a conversation that's probably been going on since the game was released, but the "big conversation" you feel like you're missing is probably Blue Planet.)

 

Offline Goober5000

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Re: Of motivations and Shivans
Okay seriously, what are you guys talking about? You keep making all these apparently disconnected posts with grandiose explanations of things that don't seem to have anything to do with anything. I'm guessing it's about Shivan organization, and there was some big conversation about that at some point that I don't know about, and you're referring to that, but all this seems to just come out of nowhere.

And I hate being confused.  :(

Sorry, there is a large amount of institutional folklore here that you may not be privy to.  In the first place, you have 17 years of speculation on the origin, motives, and abilities of the Shivans.  In the second place, you have a particularly imaginative campaign (sc. Blue Planet) which has, as one of its primary purposes, an extremely deep investigation of the various mysteries of the FreeSpace universe, particularly the Shivans.  In the third place, you have Battuta, who being a writer by trade, is in the habit of producing voluminous quantities of speculative text on just about any canonical or fanonical subject you can think of.

You may want to read the first few posts of this thread.  Despite its length, it is actually the Cliff's Notes version of the history of FreeSpace campaigns.

 

Offline General Battuta

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Re: Of motivations and Shivans
We're talking about possible, uh, structures of Shivan cognition and thought that could explain how they act in FS1/FS2. We're asking: what kind of algorithm are they?

I mean 'algorithm' in a really simple sense. As a species or a civilization, how do they transform things they find into behavior? What's their map from 'this happened' to 'this is how we act?'

Let's talk a familiar algorithm: people!

We're each self-aware individuals. We can only directly experience our own life, so we don't want it to end. We have an array of instincts and a lot of learned behavior. We communicate by linking symbols to concepts, then arranging those symbols into language. We build social rules to teach each other to defer our own personal needs in favor of cooperation. When we encounter problems, we make a model of the problem in our heads, then we push the model around to see how we can apply our energy to solve it. This is called cognition. To build our models, we use both rules of thumb (called heuristics) and a volume of past experience, both direct (memory) and indirect (things we've been taught).

This is a really good system for us. We can pass information between each other with symbols. We can develop technology.

Most of us never really have to think about anything else. But there are other algorithms out there!

A rock, for instance, can accept energy and transform in response to the rules of physics and chemistry. It can 'remember' past experiences by changing its shape. But it can't do much else. It doesn't seek out energy and metabolize it. It can't assign symbols or build mental models of problems.

A simple worm can accept input and use rules of thumb, its instincts, to behave in a useful way. But it can't come up with new heuristics. To 'learn', it has to produce mutant offspring, some of whom may develop better instincts by chance. So the worm algorithm for problem-solving is evolutionary.

An ant colony has a set of genetic rules, called eusociality, which conspire to make each individual ant very interested in helping out its sisters. Each individual ant is quite stupid and limited. It has only basic rules, coded into its genes. But the interaction of many ants can produce collective behavior, like foragers calling for workers to plunder a dead beetle,or hundreds of workers linking together into a raft to cross a river. The ants even have very basic symbols: scent markers that can trigger behavior in other ants. So the ant algorithm is hive-based, and arguably a little cognitive, because it can take a problem and 'model' a solution out of collective behavior. But it's the hive doing the thinking, not the individual ant.

Another algorithm is the market. In a market, like the hive, individual actors have wants and resources. They spend resources to get what they want — trading things that are easy for them to find in order to get things that are scarce. Each one's acting locally, using only the information they have. But collectively, the market may figure things out that the individual actors don't know.

Another algorithm, seen a lot in machine learning these days, is the neural net. I wrote a bunch about neural nets but now I am deleting it because this post is too long already.

We're talking about what kind of algorithm the Shivans might be! Does an individual Shivan experience self-awareness? Does it possess 'qualia' (the internal experience of existing)? Do Shivans have the ability to create a model of a problem, solve it cognitively, and then move towards this optimal solution? Are Shivans aware that they exist, and that they're shooting spaceships? Do the Shivans care about local optimization the way we do — getting things done fast, with an economical use of resources and little risk of life?

 
Re: Of motivations and Shivans
Alright, yeah. I guess...well, it's not exactly going over my head, but...

To put it bluntly, I'm accustomed to being by far the smartest person in the room, particularly when it comes to philosophy, or anything related to fiction. So I'm a bit taken aback when people are discussing such high-end concepts in such depth and with such efficiency. Although it's not as though these are things I never consider. I've spent quite a bit of time examining these concepts. Maybe I'll be able to contribute once I'm up to speed.

 

Offline General Battuta

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Re: Of motivations and Shivans
A very important thing to consider in problem-solving is local vs. global.

When your algorithm is a local optimizer, it's really good at finding an immediate solution. A tiger might say 'I need meat! I will hunt.' But it can't sacrifice short-term gains in favor of long-term plans. It doesn't know how to say 'There are only ten cows left. I should should stop eating them, and switch to eating fish, so the cows can repopulate. That way my cubs will have more to eat.'

When your algorithm is a global optimizer, it can step back and look at the bigger picture. A tiger might say 'All the cows in Tigerworld are dying of plague. We should build a Tigership and fly to a new planet.' It can sacrifice short-term power for long-term good. But it risks being beaten in the short term by a local optimizer, another tiger who says 'if I eat ten cows, I will be strong and fast, and I can kill that Tigership jerk!"

If you think about the tension between these two, you can gain insight into a lot of problems in the world!

 

Offline karajorma

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Re: Of motivations and Shivans
Yeah I much prefer Bosch being right the whole time. For some reason it's just very compelling to think that we were on the wrong side for the entirety of FS2.

To be honest, I prefer the "Bosch was wrong, but the GTVA used him" answer. It fits with the whole "I could live with being a pawn if the game makes sense" feeling you have throughout FS2.

It's not particularly hard to believe that someone with an incomplete understanding of what the Shivans were could go off in completely the wrong direction. It would also explain why the GTVA kept helping Bosch with his plans. If you take the simpler "Bosch was right all along" approach you basically make them out to be idiots who simply didn't think things through.
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Offline Luis Dias

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Re: Of motivations and Shivans
If you think about the tension between these two, you can gain insight into a lot of problems in the world!

Of course, it gets worse when you realise that much of the things that happen in the world are done by agents who do not behave rationally, but with other drivers in their minds and hearts. So it's not just "local vs global", and it gets even worse when you add up all the natural selection shenanigans that will find solutions that would be totally alien to this dichotomy you presented, as if they solved their problems in perpendicular, weird, astonishing ways.

 

Offline General Battuta

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Re: Of motivations and Shivans
It's not particularly hard to believe that someone with an incomplete understanding of what the Shivans were could go off in completely the wrong direction. It would also explain why the GTVA kept helping Bosch with his plans. If you take the simpler "Bosch was right all along" approach you basically make them out to be idiots who simply didn't think things through.

Why?

Of course, it gets worse when you realise that much of the things that happen in the world are done by agents who do not behave rationally, but with other drivers in their minds and hearts. So it's not just "local vs global", and it gets even worse when you add up all the natural selection shenanigans that will find solutions that would be totally alien to this dichotomy you presented, as if they solved their problems in perpendicular, weird, astonishing ways.

I think what you're describing is the central consequence of the local vs. global problem!

 

Offline Snarks

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Re: Of motivations and Shivans
Of course, it gets worse when you realise that much of the things that happen in the world are done by agents who do not behave rationally, but with other drivers in their minds and hearts. So it's not just "local vs global", and it gets even worse when you add up all the natural selection shenanigans that will find solutions that would be totally alien to this dichotomy you presented, as if they solved their problems in perpendicular, weird, astonishing ways.
I think what you're describing is the central consequence of the local vs. global problem!

This is where introducing the concept of stability might be in order. Solutions for both local and global problems can be either stable or unstable. A solution is unstable if some slight deviation can force the system away from its current solution. A solution is stable if some slight deviation will end up pulling back to the point (or location of stability.) Obviously this is a simplification as solutions may be stable in one vector but not in another (i.e. saddlepoints), and of course, existing has many dimensions to it which means many different directions for it to change (culture, technology, government, etc.) Typically speaking, the more dimensions a system has, the less likely it will be stable because there are more possibilities for it to deviate.

We could say Shivans as a species are both a global solution and a stable solution to the long running game of existence; they're ancient and existed longer than anything else. (I wouldn't be surprised if certain Shivan ships are older than our own Sun!) Meanwhile, the GTVA is a local solution but perhaps also an unstable solution. Bosch's defection changes the GTVA. He creates a splinter group in the form of the NTF, and it is unlikely that the post-war GTVA is same as pre-war GTVA. By comparison, the Shivans have probably been doing what they've been doing for an inconceivable amount of time.

So we could perhaps extrapolate a few details about the Shivans vs Terrans/Vasudans.

Shivans as a species probably have fewer dimensions to them. This means we might not expect things such as culture or even a system of governance. Terrans and Vasudans have not shown any ability to remain in any one form for long. The entire history of the two species are constant wars, changing government types, and cultural development. To use the terminology, each era is a local solution. The Shivans probably do away with any notion of governments and culture because as a species they probably don't have that extra layer of complexity. Their solution to things such as culture is that they have none, and this contributes to their ability to have a stable global solution.

In interpreting Shivans, I like to think of them as a force of nature, as if they themselves were the universe. And not only is the universe immensely vast, but it naturally wants to kill us. For me, that is a pretty terrifying thought.

 
Re: Of motivations and Shivans
Interestingly the BP Shivans seem to have an incredible amount of internal complexity and activity, it's just not globally directed or even consistent.
The good Christian should beware of mathematicians, and all those who make empty prophecies. The danger already exists that the mathematicians have made a covenant with the devil to darken the spirit and to confine man in the bonds of Hell.

 

Offline General Battuta

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Re: Of motivations and Shivans
The stability post is really good. And Phantom's observation ties into the presence of internal mechanisms designed to disrupt stable solutions in the name of totipotency and holocide.

 

Offline Luis Dias

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Re: Of motivations and Shivans
I'm saying that the very framing of the "problem" as being "local vs global" is already problematic in itself, for it pressuposes that all the agents are behaving in a rational, optimal, strategic manner, constantly trying to get into a Nash equilibrium state. But all evidence shows that at least, we humans, actually do not behave like this. In recent studies it was shown that only two groups of people actually behaved like that, economists and psychopaths - which makes a lot of sense if you think about it, and it would explain a lot of our intellectual fascination with psychopaths in the first place but that's a different topic.

Now we can double down in the mental process and declare that, in some weird, obscure manner, our psyches are actually tuned to work in a much deeper Nash-like rational equilibrium that hasn't just been understood and modeled yet, but once such models were done, we would actually see how perfectly rational and strategic all of us really are. And in that sense, terms like "solution" and so on would make sense again. But all of this is entirely teleological. There's no "solution" here to be had, because all we have in our genes and culture is mostly the past and our drives, not any purpose or reasoned demanded output for our existence.

If we are to look at mankind's "solution" to the shivan problem, we might even run to several philosophical problems before even correctly defining what exactly the "problem" is, but if we handwavely and generally define it as "surviving" the shivans, then I'd venture that a lot of adaptation would need to occur, for all our past, both culturally and genetically, are just not sufficient tools to deal with this kind of stuff. Natural selection was great, but it deals terribly with new original problems of their own that have the capacity to instagib the entire genepool / civilization. Our famed intelligence is little better than that, most of our thoughts are incredibly stupid and incoherent, science, as the other writer said some time ago, is a human achievement, not a "human trait". Will all the social and scientific processes that the GTVA produced be enough to deal with a deep-time deep-space challenge? My guess is 100% no. The only way it works in BP is because it is written with a non-desperation feel-good ending in mind, so it creates this idea that we are somewhat special (unlike all those other 99% of species that were wiped out, ala Mass Effect style), and it is this grace of specialness that saves our asses (we can sugarcoat it with "moral" decisions all we like, but still), where in reality there's no indication of this being the case at all.