Author Topic: [Spoilers] What would happen after a GEF Victory in "One future"?  (Read 1848 times)

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Offline DefCynodont119

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[Spoilers] What would happen after a GEF Victory in "One future"?
In the same vain as the "Would Severanti's strategy eventually have worked?" thread, I wonder: how would the GTVA react once they found out Earth got hit with a rock 14-km in size? And yes, I measured it in FRED
(By comparison, the Chicxulub impactor had an estimated diameter of 10-km) Yikes Macduff, you really outdid yourself.



Steele already got flamed by high command for "Underestimating" the GEFs, when the Vasuden convoy was "Destroyed by Gain Effort forces"
So he might get everything short of execution for letting Earth drop of the map, His fault or not.


The public's opinion on the matter would be, uh. . . Bad.  If the UEF-GTVA war put the Tevs on shaky ground with each other before. . . This disaster could set the GTVA on fire.


How would it affect MORPHEUS? With the Elders gone that's a +1. and judging by the original plan I know they accounted for the loss of at least a few major cities, but, the whole planet?
(Remember, this rock is almost certainty bigger then the one that took out the non-avian dinosaurs, There won't be much left)


And if somehow there is anything left, talk about a refugee crisis. Granted, the Vasuda Prime exodus was handed mostly well, but still.


TL;DR: It's hard to fight over who owns earth if earth is uninhabitable.



So, those are my ideas, what do you think?
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Offline Snarks

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Re: [Spoilers] What would happen after a GEF Victory in "One future"?
It would be a huge blow to the Terrans, as the entire point of their war would have been lost. Sure, the non-Earth colonies would probably amount to one or even two populated GTVA system's worth of resources/production/population, but losing Earth would be like losing one half of the GTVA's worth of resources/production/population. It would be a minor victory for the Terrans, as they would probably get something out of it. But it would also be like getting a consolation prize.

On a different note, I thought the Gef asteroid subplot felt a bit silly. There's already so much stuff going on that throwing another catastrophic event into the mix just felt unnecessary, and in a lot of ways, diminishes the competence of a LOT of people in the Blue Planet universe. It's a nice touch that both Fedayeen and SOC react to the asteroid, but with so much riding on the line, you'd think there'd be contingencies for it.

I would have been fine with the SOC fixing everything should the player lose. Maybe to force a failure condition, Laporte and her crew would be KIA from SOC through FRED magic.

 

Offline The E

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Re: [Spoilers] What would happen after a GEF Victory in "One future"?
On a different note, I thought the Gef asteroid subplot felt a bit silly. There's already so much stuff going on that throwing another catastrophic event into the mix just felt unnecessary, and in a lot of ways, diminishes the competence of a LOT of people in the Blue Planet universe. It's a nice touch that both Fedayeen and SOC react to the asteroid, but with so much riding on the line, you'd think there'd be contingencies for it.

The GEF (specifically, that particular cell) aren't exactly characterized by their rational approach to strategy.
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Offline General Battuta

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Re: [Spoilers] What would happen after a GEF Victory in "One future"?
Historically arming the local insurgency to fight a guerilla war on your behalf has often gone badly awry.

 
Re: [Spoilers] What would happen after a GEF Victory in "One future"?
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Offline Damage

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Re: [Spoilers] What would happen after a GEF Victory in "One future"?
From a story point, I always felt like the MacDuff/Gaian Effort mission was kind of a neat subplot that *could* have been left out without really detracting anything from the main story.  It demonstrates a bit how much other stuff is going on in this war without getting too distracting with dialogue and background info.  (Though there's some of that, too.)  As Battuta said, arming the local, err...."freedom fighters."

It's kind of like the first chunk of Return of the Jedi, wherein the main characters are NOT actively helping the Rebellion for a couple days, but are instead on a side-quest.  "Yes, there's a war on, but this is important too, and it may help advance the plot tomorrow."

Moreover, from a technical point, it's a nice little "concept mission" like the Blade Itself.

Out of curiosity, if this mission hadn't been in place, what might've replaced it?
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Offline General Battuta

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Re: [Spoilers] What would happen after a GEF Victory in "One future"?
I dunno, it was always pretty firmly there. The Gef/Macduff story had been simmering in the background since very early in Act 1 - it was time for a huge outside context problem to leap up and smack you. There's a reason we had the Gefs going after subspace components in 'For the Wrong Reasons'.

After both sides of the war had been arming and trying to manipulate the Gefs, the Gefs demonstrated why post-subspace war is so high stakes: there's a lot of potential planetkillers out there. It's as crazy, unexpected, and outside the narrative as a bunch of jets slamming into your buildings one morning.

Spoilers for current science fiction book/tv series
Spoiler:
We ended up rather presciently forecasting the way the same conflict went in the Expanse books!
« Last Edit: April 27, 2017, 02:34:54 pm by General Battuta »

 

Offline DefCynodont119

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Re: [Spoilers] What would happen after a GEF Victory in "One future"?
Hey, Awesome posts so far. I would argue that Macduff was really good at tactical planing. (no where near as good as steele but closer than most would want to admit)

You don't build a subspace drive big enough to move an asteroid bigger than the K-T one overnight. It's clear that Macduff was using GTVI bribes/arms to fund his project from day one. The GTVA never stopped to think, "hey, you think that those guy are completely insane? Maybe we should stick some agents in their station? Just in case they do something completely insane? Naw. . It's cool bro."


If anything, Framing the GEFs for attacking the zods was the worst thing that happened to the GEFs.



Going back to things I asked in the OP and other post-impact effects; what do you think would happen to steele? The finger would almost surely be pointed at him.


Also, is there any chance of the GEFs becoming active outside Sol once earth is gone? Like, Hammer of Light levels of active? and Is that a good idea for a spin-off mission?

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Offline -Norbert-

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Re: [Spoilers] What would happen after a GEF Victory in "One future"?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't it the nuclear winter that was caused by the meteor that slowly killed off the dinosaurs and not the impact itself?

So yeah, a lot of people would be killed on the impact site and more by possible tsunamis if the meteor impacted in or close to the ocean, but on a planetary scale I think the meteor would have wiped out a comparetively small number of citizens of Earth.

Both the UEF and GTVA have terraformign equipment so it stands to reason that they could greatly shorten the length of the nuclear winter or maybe even outright prevent it. And even if they can't, Humans still have the necessary technology to survive in such an enviroment or alternatively evacuate to other habitats, like Mars, some moons or hollowed out asteroids like the Gefs use.

Of course a flood of billions of refugees would cause a whole lot of new problems all over the Solar System, but also opportunities.

In an extreme case it could even lead to peace, if the GTVA were to agree to a cease fire and delivered disaster relief... or it could mean that Steele would use the ensuing Chaos to make a decisive strike against Earth or Mars. Of course the political fallout of letting Earth be so badly mauled might still cost him his career, but by the time he get's withdrawn the strike would have already happened.

 

Offline DefCynodont119

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Re: [Spoilers] What would happen after a GEF Victory in "One future"?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't it the nuclear winter that was caused by the meteor that slowly killed off the dinosaurs and not the impact itself?


You're not wrong :) but if I may:

*PUTS ON PITH HELMET*   ;)


Depends on where you are and your definition of slowly.

Nuclear winter was the final killer yes, but there were some other nasty effects too, one worth noting is the firestorm wave. Basically, if you ever had to look up/study nuke tests, you know that super-heated air can travel much farther than the part of the shockwave that smashes stuff. A super-heated air wave may only hit you for a second or two if you are a few miles, (or hundred miles if we are talking big space rocks) from the explosion. And be only a little hotter than an oven, but this is enough to start combustion.

As far as we can estimate, the K-E impact's firestorm could have reached half the planet- exposure to oven like temps for 1-2 secs probably won't kill you directly, but it could start forest fires in areas located on the same hemisphere FIGGEN' EVERYWHERE relative to the impact site.


And the extra ash/soot from the worldwide fires does not make the nuclear/volcanic winter any shorter. For the other side of the planet thing take longer, + you have the tsunamis, the earthquakes, large amounts of super-heated ocean surface could make really really really really really bad storms. also ash kills ozone. not to mention that- I'm, trailing off now, sorry, Paleontology gets me excited.  :cool:


One last thing to remember: Macduff's rock is 40% bigger; I can't say how much worse that would make it. but the PVN and GTA did get a few hundred million out of Vasuda Prime, and the GTVA got most of everyone out of Capella, so mass exoduses are nothing new and may have contingencies.


and as you said:
Both the UEF and GTVA have terraformation equipment so it stands to reason that they could greatly shorten the length of the nuclear winter or maybe even outright prevent it. And even if they can't, Humans still have the necessary technology to survive in such an environment or alternatively evacuate to other habitats, like Mars, some moons or hollowed out asteroids like the Gefs use.

Of course a flood of billions of refugees would cause a whole lot of new problems all over the Solar System, but also opportunities.

So, the only question at that point is how many people could they get off Earth and how long do they have to do so.



( DefCynodont119 is NOT a professional Paleontologist/Geologist/Planetary Physicist. [yet] So take everything I say with a grain of Salt/Halite/Sodium Chloride. )
« Last Edit: April 28, 2017, 11:57:37 pm by DefCynodont119 »
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Re: [Spoilers] What would happen after a GEF Victory in "One future"?
One last thing to remember: Macduff's rock is 40% bigger; I can't say how much worse that would make it. but the PVN and GTA did get a few hundred million out of Vasuda Prime, and the GTVA got most of everyone out of Capella, so mass exoduses are nothing new and may have contingencies.
There's quite a difference right here. Both Vasuda Prime and Capella evacuations had the time to react to the threat. Vasudans probably started evacuating as soon as the word arrived that the Lucifer is headed for their homeworld - that gives us... how much? I'd say that at least a couple dozen hours or more.
And Capella - GTVA had noticed the threat at least quite a few days before the star was detonated.
UEF in this situation wouldn't have nearly as much time to react. If we assume that the asteroid can jump all the way from Kuiper Belt to a place, let's say, closer to Earth than Luna is... An hour before it impacts? I think the assumption of subspace capabilities of the drive core is fairly accurate, since you fail the mission if asteroid jumps. It might emerge from subspace a bit further away from Earth though, which can give some more time to the UEF.
Excuse me for any spelling errors I make - I'm still learning English :P

 

Offline General Battuta

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Re: [Spoilers] What would happen after a GEF Victory in "One future"?
The asteroid breaks apart on jump which makes it way harder to intercept. (Also shows that MacDuff did not magically engineer a subspace drive for a giant-size ship.)

 

Offline CT27

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Re: [Spoilers] What would happen after a GEF Victory in "One future"?
It'd certainly be a morale hit for the GTVA Terrans since reclaiming Earth was one of their goals.

 

Offline -Norbert-

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Re: [Spoilers] What would happen after a GEF Victory in "One future"?
I guess one more factor is how well Steele could keep his involvement with the Kostadin Cell secret.

As long as all the blame falls on the Gef alone, it might even help the GTVA politically if they use it right.

"Just like we said all along, the Sol government is incapable of protecting their citizens in the face of real danger. If they can't even guard against mere terrorists, how can they ever hope to resist the Shivans? We need to liberate the citizens of Sol from this flawed government that is so obssessed with spiritual matters that they don't notice the physical reality right under their noses."

Sounds pretty good to get the people on your side after the news hits. Hell, that might even convince quite a few of the shaken Federation citizens to go over.

But if ever Steele's backroom-deals with the Gef come to light... I guess there'll be rioting in the streets. He can be happy if it's only his career that's finished.

 
Re: [Spoilers] What would happen after a GEF Victory in "One future"?
The GTVA would exterminate every Gef cells in Sol, partly as retribution (you don't get away with basically destroying one's homeworld), and partly as cover-ups.

 
Re: [Spoilers] What would happen after a GEF Victory in "One future"?
Nah. In the long run, humanity is exterminated by Shivans - Vishnans ordered a cull, and Ken doesn't have any reason to force Shivans to stop the killing spree.

Or does he...? Maybe if Shambala goes down (or isn't ever finished in the first place) Ken accomplishes his goals and humanity is spared.
Excuse me for any spelling errors I make - I'm still learning English :P

 
Re: [Spoilers] What would happen after a GEF Victory in "One future"?
There is one other piece to this equation: Impact velocity.

The Gef habitat is basically a kuiper belt object. Because those orbit so much further away from the sun, their orbital speeds are much slower. Pluto, for example, orbits at 4.7 km/sec.

Contrast with Earth, which has a much higher orbital speed, of 30 km/sec.

It's completely possible that if the Gef habitat retains its velocity through subspace transit, it could slam into Earth at 25+ km/sec.

Heaven forbid that Earth and the Gef habitat were on opposite sides of the sun during their orbits. Because then any retained velocity would be ADDITIVE. Which means impact velocity would be between 30-35 km/sec.

But wait, there's more! Order now, and I'll super-size your apocalypse!

Ships in FS2 and BP do zoom into and out of subspace much faster than they usually move (DIVE, DIVE, DIVE, HIT YOUR BURNERS PILOT!). If you fail the mission, the Gef habitat doesn't just lazily glide into subspace, it hauls butt at a few km/sec. It does not have thrusters like a ship does.

...Which means when it pops back out of subspace and fractures into a bunch of pieces, it's unlikely that they will decelerate. This cometary debris could have been moving with a relative velocity of 40 or 45 km/sec - before Earth's gravity began accelerating it.

Contrast with most near-earth asteroids, which start with velocities rather closely matched with Earth's, and you have a recipe for the biggest catastrophe in all of Earth's history. This thing would completely wreck the planet. There would still be a ball of rock that used to be Earth...but not much else.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2017, 01:01:53 am by Erebus Alpha »
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Offline DefCynodont119

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Re: [Spoilers] What would happen after a GEF Victory in "One future"?
There is one other piece to this equation: Impact velocity.

The Gef habitat is basically a kuiper belt object. Because those orbit so much further away from the sun, their orbital speeds are much slower. Pluto, for example, orbits at 4.7 km/sec.

Contrast with Earth, which has a much higher orbital speed, of 30 km/sec.

It's completely possible that if the Gef habitat retains its velocity through subspace transit, it could slam into Earth at 25+ km/sec.

Heaven forbid that Earth and the Gef habitat were on opposite sides of the sun during their orbits. Because then any retained velocity would be ADDITIVE. Which means impact velocity would be between 30-35 km/sec.

But wait, there's more! Order now, and I'll super-size your apocalypse!

Ships in FS2 and BP do zoom into and out of subspace much faster than they usually move (DIVE, DIVE, DIVE, HIT YOUR BURNERS PILOT!). If you fail the mission, the Gef habitat doesn't just lazily glide into subspace, it hauls butt at a few km/sec. It does not have thrusters like a ship does.

...Which means when it pops back out of subspace and fractures into a bunch of pieces, it's unlikely that they will decelerate. This cometary debris could have been moving with a relative velocity of 40 or 45 km/sec - before Earth's gravity began accelerating it.

Contrast with most near-earth asteroids, which start with velocities rather closely matched with Earth's, and you have a recipe for the biggest catastrophe in all of Earth's history. This thing would completely wreck the planet. There would still be a ball of rock that used to be Earth...but not much else.



First off, this is a great post,  :yes:
2nd, I wish I could do the math on this, but at that point we are going into Late Heavy Bombardment / Major Hadean-Archean impact events Territory.  0_0

Not the worst earth has seen tho, unless you're not counting Thea. But dang close if you are.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2017, 02:53:30 am by DefCynodont119 »
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Re: [Spoilers] What would happen after a GEF Victory in "One future"?
This is where Freespace's FTL idea gets blurry. If subspace jumps would retain the speed, vector and momentum of a jumping object, well... The Imperiuse in Delenda Est would have to either decelerate in the Belt (with 1G=10m/s^2, a deceleration of 1km/s would take 100 seconds of full 1G thrust slowing down in relation to asteroids) or would have buzzed by Wargods with a speed of several km/s.

But if subspace jump is preserving only the speed relative to the environment (i.e. these several hundred m/s of a destroyer jumping out), then we've got only a few km/s plus what Earth could accelerate with its gravity underway. For reference, the Chelabinsk meteor had a speed of 19 km/s before the impact. I'm not sure what to really think about it.

But I recall there being a very good read about subspace drives in Shetland/Ephesus fiction, also involving some info on how to crash at a planet with ludicrous speeds.
Excuse me for any spelling errors I make - I'm still learning English :P

 
Re: [Spoilers] What would happen after a GEF Victory in "One future"?
Yeah, the physics is awfully blurry here. I mean, why does magical space drag affect spaceships, but not planets, asteroids, satellites, etc. The reasons are for game play and fun. So, in that spirit, I think it is more interesting to consider the political and social effects of the cataclysmic destruction of the vast majority of Earth's population and non-space infrastructure instead of trying to figure out exactly how quickly the aforementioned population and infrastructure get destroyed.