[Aesaar]

This might be the first actual NATO - Russian aircraft engagement since the Korean War.  If the Russians retaliate, this could escalate fast.

[NGTM-1R]

Turkey is betting that Russian's ability to engage in military adventurism ends at the borders of a NATO country.

They are probably correct in their assessment of Russian operational capability. But it will be very exciting to be the duty Black Sea AEGIS BMD ship for the next few days.

[Aesaar]

Turkey is betting that Russian's ability to engage in military adventurism ends at the borders of a NATO country.

Yeah, IDK if that's going to work out if Turkey starts shooting down Russian planes.  If this happens again, I can't see the Russians not retaliating.  And that won't end well for anyone involved.

[NGTM-1R]

Yeah, IDK if that's going to work out if NATO starts shooting down Russian planes.

You're assuming the question is political will, rather than operational ability. The Russian military is better than it used to be, but it still hasn't come back from the '90s crashes entirely, much less achieved the parity with the West it had during the late '70s.

Putin's built his image as a strong man, but the lesson of Saddam lurks for the astute: nothing is more dangerous to a strong man than a losing war.

[Col.Hornet]

I don't expect Russian response to spectacular. They already have much problems. Ukraine, involvement in Syria, energetic sabotage on Crimea, jet liner shot down. Somebody is clearly giving them a signal to "know their place". We will see within next few days. I guess that right now they are thinking what to say. But one thing is very clear.... Turkey doesn't give a f***. They warned them what will happen. Maybe they got pissed for that demolished "pipeline on wheels" with IS oil xD

[Aesaar]

Yeah, IDK if that's going to work out if NATO starts shooting down Russian planes.

You're assuming the question is political will, rather than operational ability. The Russian military is better than it used to be, but it still hasn't come back from the '90s crashes entirely, much less achieved the parity with the West it had during the late '70s.

They don't need parity with NATO.  NATO doesn't have the political will for a war with Russia, especially not if they're being dragged into it because the Turks are being hotheads and decide to start shooting down Russian planes that might or might not have entered their airspace for a few seconds.  And Turkey most certainly can't fight Russia alone.  They'd lose.  Badly.

Doesn't help Turkey's case that the Americans are already annoyed at them because the Turks are bombing the Kurds.

If they're gambling that being a NATO member means they can attack Russian planes without consequence, I don't think that's gonna work out.  I don't see NATO tolerating that, much less the Russians.  If this happens again, I can't imagine the Russians won't retaliate.  Putin couldn't afford not to.

[Scotty]

NATO won't be dragged into a war with Russia if Turkey provides Russia with a good casus belli.  Shooting down their aircraft unprovoked definitely qualifies.  If Russia retaliates, Turkey is an island, and I don't think they quite realize that yet.

[Dragon]

Exactly. NATO is obliged to come to defend its members from an attack, not jump in when one of the NATO countries attacks someone. This was done precisely do avoid another WWI. Europe doesn't want a war with Russia, nor do they care much for Turkey lately. I'd say, the Turks just invited the Russians in with that plane. That was a very shortsighted thing to do, given everything. Dunno if this was planned or not, but if Putin intended to bait them into giving him a casus belli that way (definitely wouldn't put it past him), then they took it hook, line and sinker. And even if he didn't plan for that, it's still playing right into his hands. Russia is bombing ISIS now, so they're "good guys" in that region, at least. TBH, I'm looking forward to hearing what Russians have to say about that.

[NGTM-1R]

They don't need parity with NATO.  NATO doesn't have the political will for a war with Russia, especially not if they're being dragged into it because the Turks are being hotheads and decide to start shooting down Russian planes that might or might not have entered their airspace for a few seconds.  And Turkey most certainly can't fight Russia alone.  They'd lose.  Badly.

The thing is...this is wrong. What can Russia force on the Turks? The air campaign might be impressive, but that holds problems of its own. Especially given the decayed state of the Russian Air Force. Turkey is on the upswing; Russia took months to assemble the sortie they did earlier, getting aircraft into shape. Russia does not have the ability to invade and win; they had extreme difficulty with Chechnya, and they remember it. And the moment they tried, the arguments about political will go out the window. Even an extensive bombing campaign will change that very quickly.

Your estimations are all wrong, because you're assuming that this is comparable to any number of third-world military-adventurism things that superpowers have done. It isn't. Russia has gotten away with Ukraine thanks to plausible deniability and the fact that relatively few people have been impacted directly; the major cities of Ukraine are untouched for good reason. Turkey's first step was to make deniability impossible, and the country is either empty or populous with little middle ground. Similarly, this is a country that is more European than it is Third World, and the moment you show the people of Europe a country much like their own being bombed and invaded by what can only be Russians, the shift will be seismic. This isn't the third world. This isn't a territorial dispute. This is naked, highly escalatory aggression. If they do anything besides kill exactly one Turk in response, it's become punitive, and that's not going to be a casus belli the rest of the world will accept for very long.

Add to that the fact that far too many European gas pipelines run through Turkey right now.

The Turks are far more shrewd than you seem to realize, and Russia's position is weaker as well.

[666maslo666]

Similarly, this is a country that is more European than it is Third World, and the moment you show the people of Europe a country much like their own being bombed and invaded by what can only be Russians, the shift will be seismic.

Turkey is European-influenced but hardly anyone considers them to be European. For most people it will mentally be yet another middle eastern muslim country at war.

The attitude of the people of Europe will depend on how harsh the Russian response is. Outright invasion of Turkey? Yeah, that is going to look like Russia is the aggressor. A retaliatory bombing or two? Many people will think Turkey merely got what they deserved.

But I think the most sensible course of action for all parties involved would be deescalation. Lets hope Putin is rational enough to realize that.

[Aesaar]

They don't need parity with NATO.  NATO doesn't have the political will for a war with Russia, especially not if they're being dragged into it because the Turks are being hotheads and decide to start shooting down Russian planes that might or might not have entered their airspace for a few seconds.  And Turkey most certainly can't fight Russia alone.  They'd lose.  Badly.

The thing is...this is wrong. What can Russia force on the Turks? The air campaign might be impressive, but that holds problems of its own. Especially given the decayed state of the Russian Air Force. Turkey is on the upswing; Russia took months to assemble the sortie they did earlier, getting aircraft into shape. Russia does not have the ability to invade and win; they had extreme difficulty with Chechnya, and they remember it. And the moment they tried, the arguments about political will go out the window. Even an extensive bombing campaign will change that very quickly.

Your estimations are all wrong, because you're assuming that this is comparable to any number of third-world military-adventurism things that superpowers have done. It isn't. Russia has gotten away with Ukraine thanks to plausible deniability and the fact that relatively few people have been impacted directly; the major cities of Ukraine are untouched for good reason. Turkey's first step was to make deniability impossible, and the country is either empty or populous with little middle ground. Similarly, this is a country that is more European than it is Third World, and the moment you show the people of Europe a country much like their own being bombed and invaded by what can only be Russians, the shift will be seismic. This isn't the third world. This isn't a territorial dispute. This is naked, highly escalatory aggression. If they do anything besides kill exactly one Turk in response, it's become punitive, and that's not going to be a casus belli the rest of the world will accept for very long.

Add to that the fact that far too many European gas pipelines run through Turkey right now.

The Turks are far more shrewd than you seem to realize, and Russia's position is weaker as well.

The Russian Air Force is larger, better trained, and more sophisticated than the Turkish one.  No, it it isn't the equal of the US Air Force or the US Navy, but it's a match for any other air force on the planet.  They don't need to invade Turkey.  They can destroy the Turkish Air Force and the Turkish Navy with trivial ease.  They can finance and arm Turkey's Kurdish insurgency.  Russia is the undisputed dominant power of the Black Sea, and they can **** Turkey over without putting one tank on Turkish soil.  An invasion would be moronic anyway simply because Anatolia is way too easy to defend, being mostly covered in mountains.

Chechnya was 20 years ago.  It is in no way representative of the modern Russian military.  Hell, even Georgia in 2008 paints an outdated picture.  The Russian military is nowhere near what it was in the 1990s.  It's gone through extensive reforms and it's much, much better financed.  Nowadays it's easily comparable to any Western European one.

Russia has gotten away with Ukraine because no one gives enough of a **** about Ukraine to go to war with Russia over it.  I wouldn't bet that Europe would leap into war with Russia over a war Turkey started.  Especially since the Russians wouldn't even invade, both because they don't have the means to and because they don't need to.  This isn't Germany or Poland.  Turkey isn't even an EU member.  I think you drastically overestimate how much westerners care about Turkey.

Chances are what'll happen here is absolutely nothing.  The Russians will start putting more fighters in the air, they'll fly their bombers a bit further away from the Turkish border, and everyone will continue posturing for the sake of the cameras.

[Bobboau]

Turkey has been a pain in America's ass the last few years so I don't think we are itching to get into a war with Russia over them even if they are NATO (which only matters if they didn't provoke an attack which is debatable at best)

[Col.Hornet]

Russia's response so far will be placement of S-400 SAM batteries in Syria. Well.... Turkish Air Force will have a problem. Good deal for the Syrians though.  One potential threat of violating their airspace <for example to bombard Kurds> less.


http://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-s400-surface-to-air-missiles-syria-turkey-fighter-jet-nato/

#Edit:



Range radius of a single battery equipped with 40N6 missiles. Did anybody mention something about lack of capabilities of Russian military?

[NGTM-1R]

Range radius of a single battery equipped with 40N6 missiles. Did anybody mention something about lack of capabilities of Russian military?

The Flying Telephone Pole could do that too, but nobody respects the SA-2 anymore. They're actually making a relative mistake exposing that system; the West knows little about it, so thanks for letting us watch how it works?

They can destroy the Turkish Air Force and the Turkish Navy with trivial ease. 

Actually extremely doubtful. Russian operational readiness and flying hours rates are in the toilet and getting worse, as they have been for the last three years. Turkey by contrast is doing well in terms of having new aircraft and more capable available air defense systems; the difference now is a lot smaller than it would have been in the '80s or even the '90s, as weird as that sounds.

More to the point, doing so would be politically disastrous. Your argument here is based on two contradictory precepts; what will not draw a reaction and breathless doomsday predictions of mass devastation. Any kind of large campaign isn't something Russian can afford. The most they could get away with would be one concerted retaliatory strike on a relatively small scale, against a single target. (This is also likely all they could operationally support without significantly biasing their operations against the rebels or their harassment of NATO's northern flank as well.)

[Col.Hornet]

Range radius of a single battery equipped with 40N6 missiles. Did anybody mention something about lack of capabilities of Russian military?

The Flying Telephone Pole could do that too, but nobody respects the SA-2 anymore. They're actually making a relative mistake exposing that system; the West knows little about it, so thanks for letting us watch how it works?

That's Russia's problem, not mine xD If they use it, good for us <NATO>. We will gather data and get the chance to counter that threat in the future. Russians have a tendency to demonstrate their military might every time they can <often with exaggerated megalomania>. That move is no exception.

[Bobboau]

Yeah, for anyone predicting Russia obliterating Turkey I would just like to point out one little thing.
Russia: 0
Turkey: 1

[Dragon]

Well, we'll see how long it stays that way when those S-400s get there. I suppose the Turks won't mess with Russian bombers again. The S-400 is a modern SAM system, superior to pretty much everything NATO has. An F-16 doesn't really have much chance against those beyond staying out of range.

Open war with Russia doesn't seem to be a threat for Turkey (yet...), but I'd expect the Kurds to find themselves much better supplied really soon. Remember that in Ukraine, Russians didn't really barge in until the country has already gone to hell. If Turkey became destabilized, Russians would surely be the first in line for the sending a "peacekeeping mission".

[StarSlayer]

I don't know if deploying 400km active radar fire and forget surface to air missiles isn't a recipe for accidentally shooting down the wrong poor bastard.

[Bobboau]

yeah, fun fact: The US is flying planes in that red circle

[Dragon]

There's such a thing as IFF, you know? Also, I suspect that there is some datalink system in place. There are so many NATO planes flying around there that Russians won't be firing the missiles blindly. They'll probably be available on call for the bombers and their escorts. Seeing as they generally have the same purpose as NATO in the region (that is, reducing the entirety of Syria to smoking ruins and hopefully a bunch of ISIS fighters with it), trying to keep them out would be as counterproductive as Turkey trying to chase Russians away.