Author Topic: Obama is visibly frustated over yet another shooting in the US.  (Read 23237 times)

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Offline karajorma

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Re: Obama is visibly frustated over yet another shooting in the US.
It implicitly makes that claim because it ignores every single other contributing factor. Would you compare anyone of British decent with people from the UK and expect them to be similar? Without making any sort of argument how similar Japanese-Americans are to Japanese the entire statistic is worthless.

The source material on the other hand explicitly states that any such comparison is crude at best. Of course the source material is comparing figures from 1976-1978 but quite frankly if I try to argue why this is a bad idea, or how it is inherently deceitful to present such old data as if it were current, they'll just cherry pick some other data.

But even if you don't believe the argument is racist. It fails on so many other levels. We are talking about murder rates. Has there been any attempt to correct for factors such as organised crime? After all it's fairly likely that the Yakuza are more established in Japan than in they are in the US (where they are mostly limited to Hawaii). I mean, it seems reasonable to expect that a fair percentage of the homicide rate in Japan would come from that. Given that in America they'd face strong competition from non-Japanese cartels, couldn't that alone account for some or all of the difference?

Is there any correction for the fact that immigrants are already a non-representative sample? (as I stated above).

There's just so much wrong with any kind of comparison between the two that I find it laughable that anyone would try. I'm just waiting for a Japanese member of HLP to turn up and tell you to also leave them the **** out of it.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2015, 04:47:36 am by karajorma »
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Offline z64555

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Re: Obama is visibly frustated over yet another shooting in the US.
So, we can pretty much throw out jr2's statistics that he linked, since it's got some glaring issues with how it went about achieving its topic statement.

To reiterate, race should not be brought up as a factor in this discussion, due to the simple fact that it alone has no solid ground to stand on, and is most likely a distraction from the main topic.

Going back to the mental health subtopic, I'm now thinking that the psych screening would be a waste of resources, considering that there are other factors that have a much higher weight, most notably stress.
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Offline Goober5000

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Re: Obama is visibly frustated over yet another shooting in the US.
This, right here, is what I'm on about:

So, we can pretty much throw out jr2's statistics that he linked, since it's got some glaring issues with how it went about achieving its topic statement.

Several posters in this thread, particularly karajorma, are far more concerned about slandering jr2's argument as racist than about actually reading it.  Calling it "racist" allows you to dismiss the whole post without allowing it to challenge your thinking.

Never mind that the Japanese comparison was only one small section of the statistics, and the author even admitted it was a "crude and partial" solution.  Talking about "cherry-picked nonsense", karajorma -- your last several posts have been fixated on the Japanese/Japanese-American argument, while ignoring every other statistic in jr2's post and the linked article.

That's why, I say again, jr2 cites statistics and you call it racist.  And yet you accuse your opponents of shouting rhetoric?

 
Re: Obama is visibly frustated over yet another shooting in the US.
the rest of jr2's statistics are just as bad though
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Offline z64555

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Re: Obama is visibly frustated over yet another shooting in the US.
Well, no, jr2 didn't cite statistics, he cited an article that cited statistics, of which appears to be the source of karajorma's ire.

I still need to go through the Harvard study and compare it against the article to see where the journalist's biases and summaries might have come in.
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Re: Obama is visibly frustated over yet another shooting in the US.
This, right here, is what I'm on about:

So, we can pretty much throw out jr2's statistics that he linked, since it's got some glaring issues with how it went about achieving its topic statement.

Several posters in this thread, particularly karajorma, are far more concerned about slandering jr2's argument as racist than about actually reading it.  Calling it "racist" allows you to dismiss the whole post without allowing it to challenge your thinking.

Never mind that the Japanese comparison was only one small section of the statistics, and the author even admitted it was a "crude and partial" solution.  Talking about "cherry-picked nonsense", karajorma -- your last several posts have been fixated on the Japanese/Japanese-American argument,

Because your earlier post fixated the discussion on that.

 

Offline karajorma

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Re: Obama is visibly frustated over yet another shooting in the US.
Several posters in this thread, particularly karajorma, are far more concerned about slandering jr2's argument as racist than about actually reading it.  Calling it "racist" allows you to dismiss the whole post without allowing it to challenge your thinking.

Never mind that the Japanese comparison was only one small section of the statistics, and the author even admitted it was a "crude and partial" solution.  Talking about "cherry-picked nonsense", karajorma -- your last several posts have been fixated on the Japanese/Japanese-American argument, while ignoring every other statistic in jr2's post and the linked article

I pointed out what utter bull**** the UK part of the argument was too. And that was completely ignored, presumably cause everyone realised what bull**** it was. I have only replied to the parts that other people have attempted to argue with me about. My last posts have only been about that part of the argument because that has been the only thing anyone has cared to talk about.

Quote
Never mind that the Japanese comparison was only one small section of the statistics, and the author even admitted it was a "crude and partial" solution. 

No. The source pointed out that it was crude and partial. The author of the argument jr2 posted completely ignored that fact (and the fact that it was an argument based on data that is 37 ****ing years old!) and presented it as a relevant argument why Japan's current crime rate is nothing to do with their gun ban. The source then goes on to argue that you should not use data in exactly the way that jr2's article uses it. It argues that comparing the difference between two countries in such a crude fashion should not be used to buttress pro or anti gun control arguments. Having read that, the author of jr2's article used it to buttress a pro-gun argument. That's why it is not only cherry-picked, but downright disgustingly deceitful.

The article that jr2 post is just as bad in its entirety. We could go through it line by line and dissect it. I've done that sort of thing several times before and seen others do it too, but I'm not going to do that not because I can't but because of a much more important reason.

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That's why, I say again, jr2 cites statistics and you call it racist.  And yet you accuse your opponents of shouting rhetoric?

Yes. Did you fail to read my earlier posts on this thread? At no point during this thread have I attempted to put forwards a pro-gun control argument. I may have called jr2's argument bull**** but I'd have done exactly the same had someone posted a similar pro-gun control post. Did you fail to notice that I have repeatedly said that using bull**** statistics about the UK to advance either side of the argument is stupid?

My feeling on this subject is that Americans will never solve the gun crime debate in any meaningful way because they prefer to shout pro and anti gun control arguments at each other rather than actually try to compromise on a solution. That is why I have no interest in taking apart the entirety of jr2's post. Because by doing so I would be continuing the fine tradition of arguing about minutia while the body count builds up.

If you want to argue pro vs anti gun control, go to it. Hell, I might even join in whenever they start bull****ting about the UK. If that's the attitude of your country, fine. It merely proved my first post on the subject was spot on about what the rest of the world should think on this issue. "It's not the people of my country dying by the bucket load, **** it!"

But if you want to actually try to suggest a compromise that might work like other people on this thread including myself have done, if you actually want to try to improve matters rather than spitting rhetoric and bull**** statistics at each other, that would be a better way to continue this thread. But given that this is not the first time I've suggested you do that, I very much doubt that's what you want.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2015, 09:14:44 am by karajorma »
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Offline Luis Dias

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Re: Obama is visibly frustated over yet another shooting in the US.
I see the tone keeps very much the same in this thread... but here's something I heard Sanders say in an interview that sounded very... moderate for a hard-line socialist. I was intrigued:


edit: time stamps don't seem to work. Check 14 minutes and 50 seconds in.

 
Re: Obama is visibly frustated over yet another shooting in the US.
@headdie:
I don't remember if John Oliver included the statistics of crime by persons who were suspected of mental illnesses, I'll try going through video again with some notepaper or something later on.

It should be worth noting that John Oliver's vid was not primarely about gun control, but that people need to get off their asses and fix the damn mental health issues if they say they care about it so much (instead of using it as a rhetorical device see also OP).

 

Offline karajorma

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Re: Obama is visibly frustated over yet another shooting in the US.
here's something I heard Sanders say in an interview that sounded very... moderate for a hard-line socialist. I was intrigued

YouTube isn't going to work here in China without a lot of effort on my part, so summarise please.
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Offline Luis Dias

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Re: Obama is visibly frustated over yet another shooting in the US.
I'll try to use the transcript function with some (a lot of) corrections:

Quote
Let's talk about the gun issue, you called for and we we've been we've been through this a lot with you so I don't want to get into the details of it but you've called for moderation in this saying you know what you think you can bring both sides together

I wouldn't use the word moderation, not quite the right word... this is what I do believe: I come from a state that has virtually no gun control and yet at political peril I voted for an instant background check which I wanna see strengthened and expanded. I voted to ban certain types of assault weapons which are designed only to kill people, I voted to end the so-called gun show loophole. What I did say is that we can keep shouting at each other which is what's been going on here for 20 years and going nowhere and kids on campuses and children in schools are being slaughtered.  What I think that needs to be is a dialogue and here's what I do believe, I believe what I would call common-sense gun reform plus a revolution in mental health making sure that our people having a nervous breakdown, suicidal or homicidal they get the care they need when they need it. I think  there are vast majority of the american people can support an agenda composed of those features.

 

Offline karajorma

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Re: Obama is visibly frustated over yet another shooting in the US.
So he's basically saying what both of us have been saying on this thread? Yeah, he's not getting elected. :p
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Offline jr2

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Re: Obama is visibly frustated over yet another shooting in the US.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the whole point of mentioning the Japanese in the article I linked to debunk the other side's claim that the low crime rates in Japan were due to their not having firearms??  And wasn't it also mentioned that it's not lots of guns or gun control laws that are the primary factor in the number of mass murder incidents?

I'm usually pretty good at reading comprehension, so if I could get a couple of verification passes on that I'd appreciate it.  Good articles aren't just a string of connected ideas supporting a main point placed next to each other; the statements are supposed to be parsed in context...

Quote
And while gun-control zealots portray the United States as a wild west of murder and mayhem, our nation actually ranks only 98th in homicide rate on a list of 194 countries — in the bottom 50 percent. Of course, it’s true that the U.K., often cited by gun-grabbers, has an even lower rate (note: this doesn’t contradict the Harvard study; Britain’s murder rate is lower, but its overall level of violence isn’t). It’s seldom pointed out, however, that New Hampshire has both a far higher gun-ownership rate than the U.K. but a lower murder rate. Explanation?

Demographics. As Dr. Thomas Sowell put it in 2012, “Neither guns nor gun control is the reason for the difference in murder rates. People [are] the difference.”

A major factor in the U.S. murder rate having dropped during the last few decades is that the proportion of young people — the age demographic with the highest crime rate — has dropped as our society has grayed. There are other demographic correlations, too. As Sowell wrote, “The rate of gun ownership is higher in rural areas than in urban areas, but the murder rate is higher in urban areas. The rate of gun ownership is higher among whites than among blacks, but the murder rate is higher among blacks.”

Then there’s an even more striking example. Japan, which has strict gun control, “technically” has the world’s fifth-lowest homicide rate (critics point out that, due to the application of different criteria, that nation’s actual rate is twice the reported one). Yet Japanese-descent Americans living in the United States — under our relatively lenient gun-control laws — have a murder rate half that of Japanese living in Japan.

 

Offline The E

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Re: Obama is visibly frustated over yet another shooting in the US.
Yes, people are the difference -- but the article you cited explicitly makes a connection between the murder rate in Japan, the murder rate among US citizens of japanese descent, and the murder rate of the US as a whole. That sort of comparison is utter bull****. You can either compare two countries against each other, or compare the statistics for the various ethnicities inside a single one, but combining both into a single statement as the author of that article did is plainly bogus.

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Offline 666maslo666

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Re: Obama is visibly frustated over yet another shooting in the US.
Yes, people are the difference -- but the article you cited explicitly makes a connection between the murder rate in Japan, the murder rate among US citizens of japanese descent, and the murder rate of the US as a whole. That sort of comparison is utter bull****.

I would not go as far as to say that it is utter bull****. There could be a connection. Then again, there could be not.
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Offline karajorma

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Re: Obama is visibly frustated over yet another shooting in the US.
The point is that comparing them in the way that jr2's article does is bull****. This is something that the source of jr2's article makes explicitly clear. The author of jr2's article then ignored that and used the data to make exactly the sort of argument his own source said not to make using that data.

So not only is it bull****, it's highly dishonest bull****.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the whole point of mentioning the Japanese in the article I linked to debunk the other side's claim that the low crime rates in Japan were due to their not having firearms??  And wasn't it also mentioned that it's not lots of guns or gun control laws that are the primary factor in the number of mass murder incidents?
 

No it wasn't. If that was the reason, then they would have paraphrased the sources argument about how such comparisons are stupid. They would have explained how you can easily distort statistics in this fashion. Instead they deliberately presented a flawed argument as if it was a good one in order to mislead people. Nor would the author have quoted this particular section


Quote
When Kates and Mauser compared England with the United States, they found “’a negative correlation,’ that is, ‘where firearms are most dense violent crime rates are lowest, and where guns are least dense, violent crime rates are highest.’ There is no consistent significant positive association between gun ownership levels and violence rates.”

Since once again this is the kind of bull**** their own source warned against.
« Last Edit: October 21, 2015, 09:51:55 am by karajorma »
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Offline z64555

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Re: Obama is visibly frustated over yet another shooting in the US.
Just because it dosnt happen often dosnt mean it dosnt happen.  Also cant watch the video due to region locking but is there any mention of instances where suspected mental health issues with no formal diagnosis?

Mr. Oliver's segment didn't mention any instances where perpetrators were suspected of mental illness without a formal diagnosis, here's a link to the article he probably cited: Community Violence Perpetration and Victimization Among Adults with Mental Illnesses

Unfortunately the publisher's website requires users to have an account to actually view it.  :banghead:
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Offline Dragon

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Re: Obama is visibly frustated over yet another shooting in the US.
Dunno if it's been posted before, but I found a nice analysis of one of Obama's statements on gun laws:
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/oct/06/barack-obama/obama-more-gun-laws-means-fewer-gun-deaths/
It highlights (and backs with numbers) a few interesting correlations between gun ownership, gun laws and gun deaths.

 
Re: Obama is visibly frustated over yet another shooting in the US.
About gun laws. Looks like recent events made it "hot topic" among EU officials.

http://www.firearms-united.eu/firearms-united-articles

I have a strange feeling that terrorists in Europe may have another goal. Topic of gun ownership is raised every time something tragic happens and some people always try to force more restricted laws that will strike only law-obeying citizens. So it means that with every attack they are closer to completely disarm Europeans. Which is pretty possible in my opinion, knowing the "wise" decisions of which European Commission is capable. 
 
As a person who plans to obtain a gun licence for sport purposes and is an active Airsoft player this is unacceptable. I can understand some fear about firearms but dragging "replicas" or deactivated guns into that is just pure bull****.  What will be next? Pepper spray, knives, axes? Reckless, hectic move made under influence of boiling emotions.
Anyway. I hope that this idea will die soon and not proceed any further. Bad guy will always get a gun if he wants to. legally or not.

 

Offline zookeeper

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Re: Obama is visibly frustated over yet another shooting in the US.
I have a strange feeling that terrorists in Europe may have another goal. Topic of gun ownership is raised every time something tragic happens and some people always try to force more restricted laws that will strike only law-obeying citizens. So it means that with every attack they are closer to completely disarm Europeans.

How would that help them? I don't think there's much likelihood even now that upon a terrorist attack, a private citizen runs home, gets their gun out of a cabinet and runs back to the scene of the attack to shoot the terrorist. I'm pretty sure that in no european country is concealed carry a thing like it is in for example the US.


Bad guy will always get a gun if he wants to. legally or not.

Really? If I turned a bad guy tomorrow, I'd have no idea where and how to get a gun illegally. It'd take quite some time to figure out, with presumably a very uncertain outcome. I might make educated guesses about where some hunting rifles could be found, but stealing those would incur its own risk of getting caught.

If I was a career criminal, part of a terrorist organization or just otherwise happened to have particularly shady acquiantances? Sure, then I probably could. But bad guys connected to a network of other bad guys from whom to acquire guns is just a subset of all bad guys (and if that's all that you meant, then fair enough).

Of course, stricter gun legislation probably doesn't make it any harder to obtain a gun illegally, which I suppose was your point. I'm just saying that it's not something anyone can just automatically accomplish (especially on short notice) if they want.