[The E]

Jesus Christ, 2016, could you chill it with the large, tragic news events?

In any case, a couple hours ago, the military seized control of Istanbul and the turkish government. Martial law has been declared, the social internet has been largely shut down, and President Erdogan is calling for the populace to rise up in resistance.

[Mikes]

... this may get ugly.

[NGTM-1R]

On one hand, we have a large, anti-democratic, strongman-theory governmental organization who will only use this incident to cement their own powerbase.

On the other, we have the Turkish military.

To misquote Ken White from Popehat: "The best way not to feel nauseated when you analyze a...issue is to assume everyone involved is going to be an asshole." Right now I'm not sure there is a clearly lesser evil in play in this situation.

[An4ximandros]

About time, Edrogan is a pro-Shaira asshole, nice to see the army step in on Ataturk's side.

EDIT: before anyone is angry at me: Yes, I know the military does not have a nice record of running things smoothly, but the alternative with Edrogan in charge is much worse.

[Dragon]

Why is it that everyone is recently ending up with having to chose between a rock and a hard place? Really, if it keeps going like that, people will be reading The Witcher stories, see all the dilemmas about choosing lesser evil and the like, then wonder what options there used to be besides greater and lesser evil.

TBH, I'm not sure about on that one. Probably with the military, funnily enough, juntas have proven themselves decent at keeping religious nuts at bay (in Egypt, for instance). So this might be just what Turkey needs. On the other hand, given what's happening at its borders, internal discord is just about the last thing it needs. For all we know, this whole mess might end with Russians moving in (they're not exactly on good terms with Turkey right now). Or with ISIS moving in. Or both moving in and turning the country into a wasteland. I don't know who will win this, but I'm sure that, as always, ordinary Turks will lose, no matter what.

Either way, it's not gonna be over anytime soon. It's another one of those events which create fallout that we'll have to deal with for the next decade or so.

Jesus Christ, 2016, could you chill it with the large, tragic news events?

There's more of that where what came from, I'm afraid. It seems that the post-Cold War order of the world from the early 2000s is crumbling and we're headed straight for an event that will later mark a boundary of the current historical period. It's still a bit early to speculate, but I'm more and more certain we're at the end of an era. Shame, for a while it seemed that all that idealism could have worked.

[qwadtep]

The Turkish military has a long history of kicking Islamists out of office to preserve Ataturk's reforms.

Also, shame on Erdogan for goading civilians into getting involved in a military confrontation.

[Mikes]

Worst case scenario: Erdogan - who has been ever so *rational* lately - remains in power and somehow gets the idea that powers abroad (Germany, Russia, EU, your pick) were *really* behind the coup. Then sh** really hits the fan.

[qwadtep]

I think he already blamed America earlier.

Soldiers who are surrendering rather than fire on civilians are being murdered by said civilians. It's not looking good for the coup.

[X3N0-Life-Form]

Well, with the terror attack in France and now this, it's been a rather "interesting" week...

[Dragon]

The Turkish military has a long history of kicking Islamists out of office to preserve Ataturk's reforms.

Indeed, which is why this isn't too much of a concern. I'm more worried about the implications for the conflict in Syria. It doesn't seem that all of the military is onboard with the coup. I hope it won't end up evolving into a civil war. That said, now that I look at it, there's a (however slim) chance that it'll end up handled in a "civilized" way, with relatively little disruption. Turkish military had managed that in the past.

Of course, if Erdogan manages to survive that... all bets are off. I don't think he will, though.

[NGTM-1R]

The Turkish military has a long history of kicking Islamists out of office to preserve Ataturk's reforms.

The fact they did it more than once and are attempting to do it again kind of argues that the problem is beyond one they're able to solve simply by changing the government. The military doesn't seem to have changed or accomplished anything if they just have to keep doing it; apparently people are still electing them to public office. Or worse the people the military installs are also on the Islamic supremacy train.

Besides, as we've recently seen with Egypt, the military's intervention against Islamic supremacist governments has not necessarily been helpful to the country. Egypt's not really better off at the moment for its own coup.

[The E]

And by all indications, the coup has failed: Erdogan and his loyalists have taken back Istanbul, and they're busy purging the state of disloyal elements; the military and judiciary are being decimated, and they're making noises about reintroducing the death penalty. Meanwhile, a group of soldiers took a Blackhawk to Greece and have asked for asylum there; that is surely going to be good news for Greece/Turkey relations.

As much bad news as a military coup usually is, the fact that it failed will make the situation in Turkey even more troubling for the people living there.

[Luis Dias]

Somewhat romantic about military coups myself, because my country benefited from the last one immensely.

But that is totally not the norm.

It appears however that, on the long run, this will probably be seen as the last gasp of secularist intervention on what is increasingly an full islamisation of Turkey, which in one decade or so will probably look a lot more like Iran than anything else.

Which is disturbing in itself, this notion that europe will soon share borders with a theocratic authoritarian insane government.

Autocracy is winning around the world. And I can't see the west doing anything about it. It's as if the so-called Western Empire no longer cares about being able to deal the cards. And while some anarchists might cheer at this, when they realise what will substitute this Pax Americana, they will ask themselves "What the hell has happened to the world?".

[Grizzly]

Autocracy is winning around the world. And I can't see the west doing anything about it. It's as if the so-called Western Empire no longer cares about being able to deal the cards. And while some anarchists might cheer at this, when they realise what will substitute this Pax Americana, they will ask themselves "What the hell has happened to the world?".

"But we did stop the flow of refugees!"

[Grizzly]

Although, to be fair, I don't really see what the european powers *can* do that Erdogan's regime will not take as an excuse to escalate the situation further. Aside from that appalling refugee deal (Which has done nothing to stop the rising death toll in the mediterenean crossings) Turkey is already going further and further away from EU acceptance.

[FrikgFeek]

Well, gather the bricks, it's time to build a GREAT WALL. That will surely solve all our problems.

[Dragon]

Autocracy is winning around the world. And I can't see the west doing anything about it. It's as if the so-called Western Empire no longer cares about being able to deal the cards. And while some anarchists might cheer at this, when they realise what will substitute this Pax Americana, they will ask themselves "What the hell has happened to the world?".

Well, I've got an answer to that. One that I've been preaching for the last few years or so. People in the West got so used to being able to deal cards that they now take it for granted. The "Western Empire" only lasted as long as it did with its democratic ideas because it was backed by the US, united by the fear of Soviet Union. After USSR fell, this pressure was gone. European countries are too weak and indecisive to stand on their own, and too bogged down in arguments and nationalism to stand together. These are though times and people aren't smart enough to recognize harsh measures that might be needed (they never were, to be fair), while democratic politicians are unwilling to take those measures, because it'd decrease their chance at staying in power. Autocratic regimes are in a position of advantage in such cases, which is really showing now (why do you think I keep saying that a return to monarchy would be great?). And this will only get worse from here.

The way I see it, the Western countries are trying to lead the world with all carrot and no stick, while simultaneously being increasingly short on vegetables in general. If European countries are to remain relevant, they needs to stop treating everything with kid gloves and realize that sometimes, war might be preferable to what kind of peace you're going to get if you don't fight. Sadly, it might have been too long since Europeans had to fight for their values, their freedom and countries. I won't be the slightest bit surprised if they end up giving them up without much of a fight. The worst thing is, Democracy is such a buzzword now that even if someone does fight back and win, they'll put up a democratic system again and we'll be back to the square one.

Although, to be fair, I don't really see what the european powers *can* do that Erdogan's regime will not take as an excuse to escalate the situation further. Aside from that appalling refugee deal (Which has done nothing to stop the rising death toll in the mediterenean crossings) Turkey is already going further and further away from EU acceptance.

By now? Certainly not much, short of invading, occupying the country (which would be as likely as not to backfire anyway, but I don't know what's worse, really) and shooting Erdogan and his goons in the back of the head. I don't know if something could have been done before, but it's likely that it could.

[qwadtep]

The fact they did it more than once and are attempting to do it again kind of argues that the problem is beyond one they're able to solve simply by changing the government.

This goes all the way back to Ataturk. Laicism never had popular support, but Ataturk had enough influence after rebuilding the army and raising the country from the ashes of the Ottomans that he was able to drag them kicking and screaming to a modern standard of living. Every twenty years or so Islamists like Erdogan take power in the government, and the military ends up invoking the Constitution to overthrow them.

Unfortunately this was an extremely poorly executed coup (regardless of whether it was secular Kemalist, or if it was Gulenist as Erdogan claims) that has only given Erdogan an excuse to purge the military and turn it into one that's entirely loyal to him. I guess he gets to become Sultan just like he wants.

[NGTM-1R]

You seem to have missed the point, which was that any system dependent on the military overthrowing the government on a regular basis is A: not sustainable and B: would seem to not reflect the desires of the Turkish people.

I suppose you could argue they don't know what's good for them, but that really only answers one of those points.

[Dragon]

You seem to have missed the point, which was that any system dependent on the military overthrowing the government on a regular basis is A: not sustainable and B: would seem to not reflect the desires of the Turkish people.

Well, I suppose that if you codified the coups into a law, Discworld style, this could become an... interesting form of government. They could probably even sell tickets for them. However, you're right that the current system is actually kind of nuts. It seems like they'd really like to have a democracy, but those religious morons keep ruining everything by electing undemocratic candidates, so it needs an occasional coup to keep it democratic. If that's not crazy, I don't know what is.

The problem is that anything that would "reflect the desires of (the majority of) Turkish people" would not be a secular government. It would seem that they really don't know what's good for them. Erdogan is an example of a leader that they elected in a democratic way (at least the first time around) and look how he turned out. Ataturk understood the idea that Turkey needs to be dragged kicking and screaming into the modern age. They need a Sultan more than a president. More specifically, a Sultan who would continue what Ataturk started, despite initial popular resistance.

The above could be said of many Middle Eastern "democracies" (in monarchies, the royal family is usually progressive already. Depressingly enough, this includes Saudi Arabia), but Turkey is a strange example in which the progressive elements of the society, despite not having autocratic power, actually managed (at least until now) to keep things under control. This sounds like it could be a really good system in principle (democracy "moderated" by intellectuals), if it wasn't for the fact that it involves regular military coups...