[Woolie Wool]

The story indicates that political support for the war within the GTVA is far from a sure thing and continuously waning, and that's what really matters to an attacker (especially an ostensibly democratic state) in an invasion. If the UEF can hold on long enough to make the Tev civilians get fed up with the war and its costs, they win no matter how much damage the GTVA has done to them. Also the conclusion of conventional military operations does not preclude the formation of a successful resistance movement; the Ubuntu Party has more than enough popular support and ideological zeal to function effectively as a guerilla/terrorist organization after its military has been destroyed.  They may have to compromise on some of their lofty principles, but they could continue the fight long after the war is "won".

Don't count the UEF out yet.

[qwadtep]

unless there were no nuclear weapons involved and the "nuking" was only a figure of speech by Kassim).

The command briefing says "nuclear detonations at several domes." 'Twas bombers.

[Drogoth]

The story indicates that political support for the war within the GTVA is far from a sure thing and continuously waning, and that's what really matters to an attacker (especially an ostensibly democratic state) in an invasion. If the UEF can hold on long enough to make the Tev civilians get fed up with the war and its costs, they win no matter how much damage the GTVA has done to them. Also the conclusion of conventional military operations does not preclude the formation of a successful resistance movement; the Ubuntu Party has more than enough popular support and ideological zeal to function effectively as a guerilla/terrorist organization after its military has been destroyed.  They may have to compromise on some of their lofty principles, but they could continue the fight long after the war is "won".

Don't count the UEF out yet.

I expect the destruction of the Arethusa, or rather the circumstances of its destruction will reinforce support throughout the GTVA three fold.

[redsniper]

Magical Nagari Girl Laporte

This is the name of Act 5, btw.

[crizza]

unless there were no nuclear weapons involved and the "nuking" was only a figure of speech by Kassim).

The command briefing says "nuclear detonations at several domes." 'Twas bombers.

Jupp, there is even a snippet where Tev bomber jockeys are being briefed about bombing undefended targets.

[Colonol Dekker]

I always liked to imagine they were hitting orphanage ships

[Mars]

The story indicates that political support for the war within the GTVA is far from a sure thing and continuously waning, and that's what really matters to an attacker (especially an ostensibly democratic state) in an invasion. If the UEF can hold on long enough to make the Tev civilians get fed up with the war and its costs, they win no matter how much damage the GTVA has done to them. Also the conclusion of conventional military operations does not preclude the formation of a successful resistance movement; the Ubuntu Party has more than enough popular support and ideological zeal to function effectively as a guerilla/terrorist organization after its military has been destroyed.  They may have to compromise on some of their lofty principles, but they could continue the fight long after the war is "won".

Don't count the UEF out yet.

I expect the destruction of the Arethusa, or rather the circumstances of its destruction will reinforce support throughout the GTVA three fold.

You mean the Atreus?

[QuakeIV]

Well the Atreus wasn't destroyed so I would guess not?

[Mars]

Nor was the Arethusa

[QuakeIV]

Eh, who knows. 

[Drogoth]

Nor was the Arethusa

GTCv Arethusa destroyed under flag of truce by the UEFg Hesperia while assisting the Vasudan Logistics Ship Psedjet

[Woolie Wool]

The story indicates that political support for the war within the GTVA is far from a sure thing and continuously waning, and that's what really matters to an attacker (especially an ostensibly democratic state) in an invasion. If the UEF can hold on long enough to make the Tev civilians get fed up with the war and its costs, they win no matter how much damage the GTVA has done to them. Also the conclusion of conventional military operations does not preclude the formation of a successful resistance movement; the Ubuntu Party has more than enough popular support and ideological zeal to function effectively as a guerilla/terrorist organization after its military has been destroyed.  They may have to compromise on some of their lofty principles, but they could continue the fight long after the war is "won".

Don't count the UEF out yet.

I expect the destruction of the Arethusa, or rather the circumstances of its destruction will reinforce support throughout the GTVA three fold.

Not necessarily. War crimes just as often have no effect or even negative effect on enemy morale. See how al-Qaeda's terrorist attack in Madrid in 2004, killing nearly 200 Spanish civilians (a far more heinous act than destroying a military vessel, under flag of truce or not), weakened Spanish support for American military adventurism in the Middle East to the point where Spain withdrew from the "War on Terror". The UEF does not pose a threat to the survival of the GTVA; they only threaten the GTVA's violation of the UEF's sovereignty. The Feds just want to be left alone. The deaths of GTVA servicemembers and civlians are far more likely to sap morale than bolster it.

See also: Vietnam. The NVA and Viet Cong freely violated the laws and customs of war and committed atrocities against Vietnamese civilians and American soldiers, but support for the war steadily declined until the political case for further US involvement was completely untenable. Despite what some right-wing "domino theory" extremists may have said at the time, the United States had little to lose but face from withdrawing from Vietnam, and much more to lose (thousands more American lives, millions upon millions of taxpayer dollars) by staying there.

[Drogoth]

The GTVA has a lot more to lose then face if it withdraws from Sol. Viet Nam and WiH aren't comparable. If the American populace had spent the decades prior to Viet Nam being sold the idea that it was a 'promised land' that their government would open up for them, then it would. The GTVA, (or at least its Terran Arm) has staked its very existence on capturing Sol. Mix in that the Americans were LOSING Viet Nam, and had no right to be there. The GTVA has some thin veil of law that they have staked their war on, and their winning.. handily.

Madrid isn't comparable either. Because that is Person C being harmed by Person B in response to the actions of Person A.

Al Quaeda directly attacked the United States on 9/11, in what was a blatant massacre and war crime. Support for going over seas to bring the perpetrators to justice was ridiculously high. When a definable enemy commits and atrocity against you, it ups the motivation to get vengeance. It only lowers support for vengeance when the victim is just collateral of other people's conflict.

Case in point, the GEF's may view the GTVA's incursion positively, but if the UEF military were to start cruising around the Kuiper belt (i know they don't have the assets for it, but just a what if) destroying GEF bases and colonies, support for the Tevs among the GEFs would drop dramatically, as the Tev incursion would be increasing Ubuntu militarism and spilling over onto the GEF's.

[Woolie Wool]

The UEF never directly attacked the GTVA! They have engaged in military operations on their own territory, which the GTVA have no legitimate claim to whatsoever, whatever bull**** legal smokescreen they might try to put up. The crew of the Arethusa were military, not civilian. Even if they approached under a flag of truce they were still not civilians and killing them was not even half the atrocity that killing civilians is. The GTVA's war in Sol is naked imperialism, they have no legitimate justification, and sooner or later people are going to ask awkward questions about why their boys and girls are dying. "Because BETAC" will not be a satisfactory answer.

Again, the UEF do not have to military defeat the GTVA. The GTVA can utterly destroy the UEF's military and the UEF can still win. All the UEF have to do is to make the costs and consequences of the war sufficiently unpalatable to the GTVA.

Also keep in mind that the Afghanistan war might have been popular in November '01, but it is not very popular now, after years of insurgents slowly bleeding the US occupation forces of men and money. Every dead American soldier is a blow to popular support of the war. That, the continuous bleeding and attrition of US forces, not a terrorist attack on American civilians on American soil, is a reasonable analogue for the destruction of the Arethusa. The Taliban have never been a match for the American military. Not even close. But they have never had to be.

[Drogoth]

My point wasn't to equate 9/11 with WiH tactics on either side, my point was to illustrate the rage that a war crime would engender, at least in the short term. As I said, I still believe the circumstances around the Arethusa's destruction will reinforce popular support for the war, not weaken it.

[-Norbert-]

That depends on how accurate the reports sent back home are. If they tell about the cooperation between the Indus and Arethusa to save the Presejet, before telling about the destruction of the Deimos, then I doubt it will have any negative impact.
And with the Vasudans watching and recording the whole thing, I don't think the Terran Assembly can get away with an outright lie in this instance.

On that topic: Does anyone know what happened to the Argo that surrendered? Where they taken prisoner, or where they allowed to hitch a ride back home on the Presedjet?

[qwadtep]

The Vasudans at this point think that the attack on the Pesedjet was part of a Fed ploy to divide the GTVA, remember? Steele hooked them with a lie that damns the UEF even more than the destruction of the Arethusa. It's why there's a Vasudan destroyer camped out at the node now.

[CT27]

On that topic: Does anyone know what happened to the Argo that surrendered? Where they taken prisoner, or where they allowed to hitch a ride back home on the Presedjet?

They were on there at the request of the Vasudans correct?  So would that mean the Vasudans have a say in what happens to them?  (If so, I don't imagine the Vasudans would willingly hand over them to the UEF)

[Drogoth]

That depends on how accurate the reports sent back home are. If they tell about the cooperation between the Indus and Arethusa to save the Presejet, before telling about the destruction of the Deimos, then I doubt it will have any negative impact.
And with the Vasudans watching and recording the whole thing, I don't think the Terran Assembly can get away with an outright lie in this instance.

On that topic: Does anyone know what happened to the Argo that surrendered? Where they taken prisoner, or where they allowed to hitch a ride back home on the Presedjet?

Negative for who?

It would have a MASSIVELY negative effect for the UEF, and  positive one for the GTVA

"Captain Price and his crew valiantly worked to save the Psedjet, but were to zealous in their concern for their allied Vasudans. They agreed to a truce with UEF forces that offered to help the Vasudans as well - Before the UEF ambushed and destroyed them on their humanitarian mission."

^ GTVA public now has a tangible reason to hate the UEF. They are turncoats. They ambush under flag of truce. True or not, the GTVA can spin it as the UEF are evil, evil people who massacred an innocent crew. Remember the tevs have complete and total control of information dissemination outside of Sol. No one would ever know it was an accident.

[Woolie Wool]

My point wasn't to equate 9/11 with WiH tactics on either side, my point was to illustrate the rage that a war crime would engender, at least in the short term. As I said, I still believe the circumstances around the Arethusa's destruction will reinforce popular support for the war, not weaken it.

Most of the opponents the US has fought since World War I committed war crimes constantly. Do you see mass outpourings of rage every time they kill a journalist or medic?

"Turncoats" doesn't even begin to make sense. Even under a flag of truce the UEF are still enemies to the GTVA, even if they've supposedly put aside their arms for a meeting. Enemy combatants doing dirty business isn't going to seriously shock anyone. It happens in every war, on every side.

"Complete control of information dissemination" is pretty lol too. You do realize that the servicemembers who have served there, as well as the civilian contractors who tag along on every expeditionary force doing jobs that the GTVA would rather not waste military personnel on, would be perfectly capable of making their own views heard, right? They have their own brains and their own eyes, and some of them might not agree with the official propaganda. Even if people risk going to prison for it, other perspectives of the war will leak out. If any sympathetic Tevs end up speaking with UEF prisoners, people in the GTVA could end up hearing some of the UEF's side as well. Wars are not laboratory experiments; there are many things that happen that you cannot control.