Author Topic: Coronavirus Outbreak  (Read 83378 times)

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Offline Colonol Dekker

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Double post update.

So who's got two thumbs and covid?
👍😂👍

 
Double post update.

So who's got two thumbs and covid?
👍😂👍

atleast your survival chances should be significantly higher now  :(

  

Offline Sandwich

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CDC data and anti-vax claims
There was a 45 min video posted to social media recently that made various claims typically found among the anti-vaccination populace. One of the more interesting points in the video claimed that the media reporting that hospital beds and/or ICUs were overflowing and had no spare room was utterly false, and that the CDC website confirms this.

Naturally, I wanted to investigate further.

First, here's an article on CNN about ICU beds at capacity in Clifton, Texas: https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/19/us/texas-covid-icu-beds-mask-mandate/index.html

Quote
At Goodall Witcher Hospital in the central Texas town of Clifton, officials are finding it difficult to transfer Covid-19 patients in need of ICU care to other hospitals since they are at capacity, they say.

According to Google Maps, "Clifton is the largest city in Bosque County, in Central Texas."

Now, on to the CDC website. Specifically, here: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view

In the State and Country dropdowns, I select Texas and Bosque County, respectively. Then in the map just beneath that, I choose Hospital Utilization, and "% staffed ICU beds used for COVID-19". In the map, most of Texas' counties (incl. Bosque) seem to have no data, but the few that do are in the 20%-30% range.

Over in Florida, the situation is similar.

Am I misunderstanding something here? Where among this data interface would I see these overflowing hospitals?
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"...The quintessential quality of our age is that of dreams coming true. Just think of it. For centuries we have dreamt of flying; recently we made that come true: we have always hankered for speed; now we have speeds greater than we can stand: we wanted to speak to far parts of the Earth; we can: we wanted to explore the sea bottom; we have: and so  on, and so on: and, too, we wanted the power to smash our enemies utterly; we have it. If we had truly wanted peace, we should have had that as well. But true peace has never been one of the genuine dreams - we have got little further than preaching against war in order to appease our consciences. The truly wishful dreams, the many-minded dreams are now irresistible - they become facts." - 'The Outward Urge' by John Wyndham

"The very essence of tolerance rests on the fact that we have to be intolerant of intolerance. Stretching right back to Kant, through the Frankfurt School and up to today, liberalism means that we can do anything we like as long as we don't hurt others. This means that if we are tolerant of others' intolerance - especially when that intolerance is a call for genocide - then all we are doing is allowing that intolerance to flourish, and allowing the violence that will spring from that intolerance to continue unabated." - Bren Carlill

 
Re: CDC data and anti-vax claims
One thing to remember is that Texas and Florida are HUGE. One hospital might be utterly packed, and the next nearest hospital might have plenty of spare beds, but be 100 miles away.

Another thing to note: I'm reading an article about that hospital, and they apparently have three ventilators. In that same article is this quote: “When you go to the state website and it shows ICU beds available. Those numbers are horribly incorrect,” Squyres explained.

So long story short, unless you can look at all the hospitals, or call them all, it could be very easy to assume that the one you checked isn't full and is therefore typical of the rest.

Where's this coming from, Sandwich?

EDIT: Here's the article: https://www.kwtx.com/2021/08/18/rural-hospital-says-state-numbers-are-wrong-no-icu-beds-available-hundreds-miles/
« Last Edit: August 20, 2021, 09:47:18 pm by Scourge of Ages »

 

Offline EatThePath

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Re: CDC data and anti-vax claims
Clifton texas has a population of about 4000. Even the whole county it's in is 18k. It's a tiny speck in the 29 million people of texas, I'm not sure how you can conclude anything about the state of anywhere from looking at it.

But okay, 30% of the beds occupied at max. That uh actually seems kind of bad? How many free ICU beds does a hospital usually have? How many free beds in general? An empty bed doesn't make money so I would assume not that much. 30% extra load might be catastrophic for all I know, or it could be nothing.

How about Dallas county? Close to 35% and on a terrifying slope. Tarrant county(the FW part of DFW)? 43%. Adjacent Denton county is showing fifty ****ing seven percent.

Again, this isn't beds used, it's beds used for covid only. Unless the ICU is always at least half empty, then yeah it's overflowing right now.
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Re: CDC data and anti-vax claims
In the State and Country dropdowns, I select Texas and Bosque County, respectively. Then in the map just beneath that, I choose Hospital Utilization, and "% staffed ICU beds used for COVID-19". In the map, most of Texas' counties (incl. Bosque) seem to have no data, but the few that do are in the 20%-30% range.

Am I misunderstanding something here?

Yes. Because the percentage of ICU beds used for Covid19 is only counting the ICU beds that are used for Covid19. There's a lot of other reasons why people want to use ICU beds. If 10 ICU beds are in use and 3 are in use by covid patients, then the statistic is going to say that 30% of the beds are used for COVID-19.

But okay, 30% of the beds occupied at max. That uh actually seems kind of bad? How many free ICU beds does a hospital usually have?

Here in the Netherlands, the ICU beds tend to be calculated in such a way that they are operating at max capacity as much as possible for effeciency reasons (yay profit driven healthcare system!). The dutch hospitals had to send covid patients to Germany to save them, and we only just averted a situation like happened in Italy.

But ya know, I guess it's easier to believe that there's a grand conspiracy of medical personell conspiring with the media to make things look worse then they actually are rather then believe that medical systems can just be overwhelmed.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2021, 04:22:26 am by -Joshua- »

 

Offline Sandwich

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Re: CDC data and anti-vax claims
In that same article is this quote: “When you go to the state website and it shows ICU beds available. Those numbers are horribly incorrect,” Squyres explained.

Ahh, that's very interesting, not all that surprising, and annoying, all at the same time.  :ick: So if the state websites have outdated information, it stand to reason that the CDC website could also have outdated information. I guess it depends on where the breakdown in the flow of information is happening.

Where's this coming from, Sandwich?

You mean, link? Or, why am I asking these questions? ;)

If it's the latter, I have friends and relatives who are heavily into the conspiracy theory side of things. I myself, while conservative Messianic Jewish (i.e. Christian of Jewish background) and typically Republican (pre-Trump, at least), am pretty solidly on the pro-vaccination side of this FUBAR, and have been holding a thankfully friendly debate with "the other side" on Facebook for months. Yet because many people I know and usually trust have entirely different thoughts on the matter, I want to consider everything carefully, not just disregard it without a second glance.

So in this case, there was supposed hard data from the CDC itself that at first glance seemed to contradict what the media has been saying about the severity of the pandemic. I wanted to do my due diligence and get to the bottom of the issue.

More ammo for the quiver. :D

Clifton texas has a population of about 4000. Even the whole county it's in is 18k. It's a tiny speck in the 29 million people of texas, I'm not sure how you can conclude anything about the state of anywhere from looking at it.

I only picked that city/county because that was the city mentioned in the CNN article. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

But okay, 30% of the beds occupied at max. That uh actually seems kind of bad? How many free ICU beds does a hospital usually have? How many free beds in general? An empty bed doesn't make money so I would assume not that much. 30% extra load might be catastrophic for all I know, or it could be nothing.

How about Dallas county? Close to 35% and on a terrifying slope. Tarrant county(the FW part of DFW)? 43%. Adjacent Denton county is showing fifty ****ing seven percent.

Again, this isn't beds used, it's beds used for covid only. Unless the ICU is always at least half empty, then yeah it's overflowing right now.

Yes. Because the percentage of ICU beds used for Covid19 is only counting the ICU beds that are used for Covid19. There's a lot of other reasons why people want to use ICU beds. If 10 ICU beds are in use and 3 are in use by covid patients, then the statistic is going to say that 30% of the beds are used for COVID-19.

Very good points, you're right.  :yes: My only defense as to why I didn't pick up on that is that it was 4am.  :o
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"...The quintessential quality of our age is that of dreams coming true. Just think of it. For centuries we have dreamt of flying; recently we made that come true: we have always hankered for speed; now we have speeds greater than we can stand: we wanted to speak to far parts of the Earth; we can: we wanted to explore the sea bottom; we have: and so  on, and so on: and, too, we wanted the power to smash our enemies utterly; we have it. If we had truly wanted peace, we should have had that as well. But true peace has never been one of the genuine dreams - we have got little further than preaching against war in order to appease our consciences. The truly wishful dreams, the many-minded dreams are now irresistible - they become facts." - 'The Outward Urge' by John Wyndham

"The very essence of tolerance rests on the fact that we have to be intolerant of intolerance. Stretching right back to Kant, through the Frankfurt School and up to today, liberalism means that we can do anything we like as long as we don't hurt others. This means that if we are tolerant of others' intolerance - especially when that intolerance is a call for genocide - then all we are doing is allowing that intolerance to flourish, and allowing the violence that will spring from that intolerance to continue unabated." - Bren Carlill

 

Offline Colonol Dekker

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I'll take it as it comes.   👍

 

Offline Dilmah G

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Jesus man, real sorry to hear that. I'm sure you'll make it fight for every inch!

 
Re: CDC data and anti-vax claims
Or, why am I asking these questions? ;)
Maybe it was just an anticipation of yet another antivaxxer surfacing, so they could unanimously exclude you from the public discourse, high-five over saving the world once again and move on with their day.


Onto the topic: what I am seeing here is at best a misrepresentation of the data, or a deliberate manipulation. Obviously to know how much of an issue are these people facing, you need to know both the total hospital capacity used and how much of this is covid load (preferably also ventilator usage). Anything less is bull****. Also to paint a reasonable picture of the situation at hand, the questions by EatThePath also need answering.
Also,
Quote
Then in the map just beneath that, I choose Hospital Utilization, and "% staffed ICU beds used for COVID-19".
Let's just stress the "staffed" word. It's a yet another variable.



Beyond that, a purely housekeeping question: shouldn't this be in the actual covid thread?
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Offline MP-Ryan

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Re: CDC data and anti-vax claims
Maybe it was just an anticipation of yet another antivaxxer surfacing, so they could unanimously exclude you from the public discourse, high-five over saving the world once again and move on with their day.

Mito, if you cannot refrain from personal sniping at people on the COVID topics and continue to proceed after being spoken to by the moderators about it multiple times, you will find yourself unable to post in them for a while.  This will be the last informal warning you receive of this nature.


Quote
Beyond that, a purely housekeeping question: shouldn't this be in the actual covid thread?

It definitely should, so I've merged it with other moderator concurrence.

Note to all participants:  Sandwich's small tangent here has the potential to become political and/or heated very quickly.  Please think before you post and assume good faith.  We'll keep an eye on it; report any issues.  If it becomes quite political, it and its associated discussion will be bumped to PolDisc.
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Offline karajorma

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Well, it's nice to see that Texas has finally found the reason why Covid is spreading. Black people


HINT: It's not black people.
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Offline Colonol Dekker

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Jesus man, real sorry to hear that. I'm sure you'll make it fight for every inch!


Paracetamol, lucozade,  free weights at home.   Steak and eggs.

🍖🍳💪💪

 
 

Offline Sandwich

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Note to all participants:  Sandwich's small tangent here has the potential to become political and/or heated very quickly.  Please think before you post and assume good faith.  We'll keep an eye on it; report any issues.  If it becomes quite political, it and its associated discussion will be bumped to PolDisc.

…which is exactly why I didn't post it in here to begin with. :rolleyes: Well, that, and I didn't care to get involved in a 65-page discussion. :sigh:
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"...The quintessential quality of our age is that of dreams coming true. Just think of it. For centuries we have dreamt of flying; recently we made that come true: we have always hankered for speed; now we have speeds greater than we can stand: we wanted to speak to far parts of the Earth; we can: we wanted to explore the sea bottom; we have: and so  on, and so on: and, too, we wanted the power to smash our enemies utterly; we have it. If we had truly wanted peace, we should have had that as well. But true peace has never been one of the genuine dreams - we have got little further than preaching against war in order to appease our consciences. The truly wishful dreams, the many-minded dreams are now irresistible - they become facts." - 'The Outward Urge' by John Wyndham

"The very essence of tolerance rests on the fact that we have to be intolerant of intolerance. Stretching right back to Kant, through the Frankfurt School and up to today, liberalism means that we can do anything we like as long as we don't hurt others. This means that if we are tolerant of others' intolerance - especially when that intolerance is a call for genocide - then all we are doing is allowing that intolerance to flourish, and allowing the violence that will spring from that intolerance to continue unabated." - Bren Carlill

 
That's fair, no worries. Was your question answered sufficiently, or did you need more?

 

Offline Sandwich

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That's fair, no worries. Was your question answered sufficiently, or did you need more?

It was, yep. I think it's idiotic that a thread about a global pandemic could be considered a political discussion, but that's an American thing, not an HLP thing. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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"...The quintessential quality of our age is that of dreams coming true. Just think of it. For centuries we have dreamt of flying; recently we made that come true: we have always hankered for speed; now we have speeds greater than we can stand: we wanted to speak to far parts of the Earth; we can: we wanted to explore the sea bottom; we have: and so  on, and so on: and, too, we wanted the power to smash our enemies utterly; we have it. If we had truly wanted peace, we should have had that as well. But true peace has never been one of the genuine dreams - we have got little further than preaching against war in order to appease our consciences. The truly wishful dreams, the many-minded dreams are now irresistible - they become facts." - 'The Outward Urge' by John Wyndham

"The very essence of tolerance rests on the fact that we have to be intolerant of intolerance. Stretching right back to Kant, through the Frankfurt School and up to today, liberalism means that we can do anything we like as long as we don't hurt others. This means that if we are tolerant of others' intolerance - especially when that intolerance is a call for genocide - then all we are doing is allowing that intolerance to flourish, and allowing the violence that will spring from that intolerance to continue unabated." - Bren Carlill

 

Offline MP-Ryan

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It was, yep. I think it's idiotic that a thread about a global pandemic could be considered a political discussion

You and me both, buddy, you and me both.
"In the beginning, the Universe was created.  This made a lot of people very angry and has widely been regarded as a bad move."  [Douglas Adams]

 
A lot of what was said in this thread, even when it wasn't adressing the rambling of conspiracy nuts, was still quite political though. Since, well, a lot of this is about how our respective governments are (failing) handling it.

 

Offline Colonol Dekker

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So my horrendous chest pain is lessened.  Foggy head and chills have subsided.   I think I'm getting the better of this.

My wife (currently and luckily down south with out kids visiting her parents due to a pre booked holiday, worked out nicely) has berates me for being nonchalant about my falling prey to infection.   I reminded her thst my job to date has been to get within kissing distance of bombs and explosives designed to kill people who find bombs.   I've had sit down chats with 17 year old boys about will writing and the high risks of death in our game, so the whole mortality thing is something I came to terms with over 20 years ago. And I'm only just noticing the difference between my professional circle and those not in it regarding "signing off".


I'm not saying I'm not respecting the lethality of covid,  my wife an do have both lost a friend each to it.   I just never see the sense in panic and letting it "kill my spirit" 😂
« Last Edit: August 24, 2021, 05:17:23 pm by Colonol Dekker »