[CT27]

When the GTVA sees tactical successes by Durgas and Vajra bombers, would that cause them (whether during or after the war) to reform their own bomber doctrine?

Would a new generation of GTVA superbombers be successful against the Shivans or should they stick to the direction they're going now?

[An4ximandros]

We have yet to see how many new exhaust ports shivans can tear into UEF bombers, I doubt the GTVA would care.
At best, they will adopt UEF tactics, but using their own tech. The most the GTVA is going to take from the UEF is those anti-matter famrs... to make their own rockets, not the UEFs.

[Mars]

I think that the Tevs would lose a lot of resources producing flights of super-bombers.

They would necessitate perhaps only a little research (years) into buntu technology as frankly we haven't seen anything that makes Buntu bombers superior-tech, only different tech, with lots of access to anti-matter.  Once some probably designs are selected, there's the matter of what infrastructure to retool and which factories to take off of Perseus spamming in order to produce this super bomber. They most likely take up a lot of space in the Tevs ultra-dense hangers, meaning that a Vaj sized bomber potentially eliminates the possibility of an entire wing of lighter combatants. All of this to fill a role that the Tevs have an arguably more elegant solution for.

Perhaps if Shivan warships that we've seen so far were a little better defended from air attacks, tougher combatants would be called for. Maybe if Tev beam tech hadn't reached the point of destroying ANYTHING with a few good hits, bombers could reasonably compete with corvettes in an anti-capital role. Hypothetically if the Shivan's solution to a wing of bombers wasn't a massive hoard of cheap interceptors, and was instead a wing of super-Dragons turreted tank-like bombers would make more sense. The GTVA being what it is, and the situation they're in being what it is, it doesn't make sense for them to make that transition. Not unless you count their new escorts.

[Celendil]

True, but remember that the Shivans, technologically speaking, aren't static, and I don't believe we've seen their full capabilities by any means.

If they can extrapolate that post-Capella GTVA research would focus on strong beam weaponry, it would make sense for the next response to include deploying powerful AWACS and neutralising the advantage the GTVA thinks they have. If someone in the GTVA has predicted that as a possible scenario, then the goal for preventing that next step in the game is developing a strike package powerful enough to get into a heavy fire pocket and destroy/eliminate the AWACS to allow the GTVA Corvettes and Destroyers to bring their main weaponry to bear. Current gen strike fighters don't have enough survivability, and the GTVA hasn't anything like the Uriel, so I think they'd need to look at bombers for that role.

[Aesaar]

If they can extrapolate that post-Capella GTVA research would focus on strong beam weaponry, it would make sense for the next response to include deploying powerful AWACS and neutralising the advantage the GTVA thinks they have.

This isn't how Shivan adaptation works.  It's completely reactive, not proactive.

[Celendil]

If they can extrapolate that post-Capella GTVA research would focus on strong beam weaponry, it would make sense for the next response to include deploying powerful AWACS and neutralising the advantage the GTVA thinks they have.

This isn't how Shivan adaptation works.  It's completely reactive, not proactive.

So the upgrade in beam tech shown by the GTVA initially in the Deimos class and the Colossus wouldn't be enough to trigger a counter from the Shivans, given that the second Sathanas encounter ended the Colossus threat?

[crizza]

The shivan beams would simply become evem more powerfull

[Phantom Hoover]

I wouldn't say it's completely reactive. The Shivans had shields and beams in FS1, after all.

[Aesaar]

So the upgrade in beam tech shown by the GTVA initially in the Deimos class and the Colossus wouldn't be enough to trigger a counter from the Shivans, given that the second Sathanas encounter ended the Colossus threat?

The whole Sathanas swarm thing was the counter to the Colossus and other advances made by the GTVA in the interwar years.

In the event of a third incursion, chances are the GTVA would be fairly successful in the initial stages, then the Shivans would counter.  Maybe that would be enough, maybe not.

[AdmiralRalwood]

I wouldn't say it's completely reactive. The Shivans had shields and beams in FS1, after all.

And how do we know those weren't "leftover" reactions to the Ancients?

[Luis Dias]

This is a Blue Planet thread. It assumes BP canon. We basically know as a fact that they were effectively leftover from the Ancients war.

[Phantom Hoover]

The Ancients were completely unable to pierce the Lucifer's shielding, so they a) still weren't at true parity and b) were arguably unlikely to have had beams of their own.

The nebular Shivans were also probably around for the Ancient holocide. To paraphrase Ben Goldacre, it's a bit more complicated than you think.

[AdmiralRalwood]

The ancients could have had no shield or beam technology and Shivan shields and beams could still be purely reactive developments.

[Phantom Hoover]

The broader argument against Shivan capabilities being 'purely reactive' is that it's way too predictable and so in some sense controllable. They don't work in terms of 'counters' formulated in response to observations of the enemy; that's too analytical and mindful. I suppose it's true that they mirrored GTVA actions in the nebula, but remember that that only represents the default threat response. Their anima-oriented behaviour is quite different: the Sathanas swarm, for instance, wasn't a response to the Colossus but the first move of the apatic anima that took Bosch.

[AdmiralRalwood]

The broader argument against Shivan capabilities being 'purely reactive' is that it's way too predictable and so in some sense controllable. They don't work in terms of 'counters' formulated in response to observations of the enemy; that's too analytical and mindful. I suppose it's true that they mirrored GTVA actions in the nebula, but remember that that only represents the default threat response. Their anima-oriented behaviour is quite different: the Sathanas swarm, for instance, wasn't a response to the Colossus but the first move of the apatic anima that took Bosch.

How do we know it wasn't purely a reaction to Bosch's input?

[Phantom Hoover]

I suppose it's a semantic distinction. But there's a very, very abrupt change from tit-for-tat trading of blows to an overwhelming, apparently goal-oriented surge literally minutes after that Azrael leaves, one which is explicitly noted in the GH leaks. The input just doesn't match the response the way it did in the first half of the incursion.

We also know that SJ Sathanas 01 contained some sort of horrifically destructive ecosystem and that this is apparently used as an input into general Shivan behaviour, which suggests a sort of directionless initiative to their actions rather than direct reaction.

[AdmiralRalwood]

I suppose it's a semantic distinction. But there's a very, very abrupt change from tit-for-tat trading of blows to an overwhelming, apparently goal-oriented surge literally minutes after that Azrael leaves, one which is explicitly noted in the GH leaks. The input just doesn't match the response the way it did in the first half of the incursion.

Without actually knowing what the input was, exactly, or the... "decision-making", for lack of a better term, that led to the response, we can't know that the response didn't match it.

(Not that I think it's likely that the juggernaut fleet was a simple response heuristic; just saying that we don't actually know.)

We also know that SJ Sathanas 01 contained some sort of horrifically destructive ecosystem and that this is apparently used as an input into general Shivan behaviour, which suggests a sort of directionless initiative to their actions rather than direct reaction.

Similarly, the purpose of the "Nightmare Furnace" is only guessed at by Terran (and possibly Vasudan) analysts. Whether or not their guesses match reality is an open question.

[CT27]

Maybe I've been using wrong terminology here.

Perhaps the GTVA won't try to jury-rig UEF technology onto their stuff but maybe a better term would be how would the GTVA incorporate lessons learned in the UEF war into their own stuff?

[Phantom Hoover]

They wouldn't be as direct as you imagine. The war in Sol is profoundly different to the Shivan incursion scenarios that the GTVA fleet is built around, and the GTVA's analysts know this: for instance, the old Narayana easter egg seems to be framed as one of them arguing that Steele's tactics would founder quickly if used against Shivans. The doctrine of the TEI is very clear-cut, and I really doubt the war would affect it at all. The Terran fleet would become a lot larger and perhaps better-equipped with the economic juggernaut of Sol behind it. There'd be a lot more antimatter warheads around. Some bits of UEF bomber doctrines might get incorporated. I can't see of any of the UEF's characteristic quirks like gauss cannons or really buff gunships being adopted, though.

[Bobboau]

I could see it possibly being incorporated for elite squadrons. There are missions where UEF doctrines are flat out better, they just are not war winning against the Shivans, but they could be battle winning.