No, sure, I agree that the analogy is lost in the middle of the war, and is blown to shreds in Delenda Est. Your point about they being interstellar territories is irrelevant for this point, for it is an analogy, not a direct translation. And I'm sure that historians would slap you too if you deflated WW2 as a "we sail here and put flag".
I'm certain that the GTVA is the dormant bear
Yes, that's right, in terms of actual firepower. My point was an economical one. In WW2, when japan attacked the US, their naval fleet was also superior to the american one. What made the difference was the relative economics between those countries (given they had time to make up for the difference in firepower).
If the UEF has been fighting for (I don't remember how many months), why haven't they won, forcing the GTVA back into the node and spreading Ubuntu throughout the GTVA and causing a massive civil war? Because it's the fact that the GTVA can win a war of attrition, and the UEF can't.
This is a non-sequitor. The UEF cannot win the war due to various factors, one of which is the lack of willingness to do so, and another one is the lack of defensive confidence to back up such an attack. The GTVA fleet is a pure attacking one, resting in a system where they have to defend nothing but themselves. The UEF has to defend their own industries, their planets, their base stations. This assymetry causes one fleet to be defensive and the other to attack. But this is
perpendicular to the attrition issue. The GTVA also has "attrition issues", since they are fighting "their own people" in a shameless war without too much of a justification. People back on the other systems may start not to like it that much.
I mean, just witness what the shebang it was in the war on iraq, and that was a war against a very lunatic, mad, egomaniacal, criminous douchebag. How can you maintain the support for a war against
pacifists without political backslash in GTVA territories for so long? Propaganda, sure, but even that has its own limits.
So in terms of "attrition", I'd say that both teams have their own issues. The GTVA might not hold public approval for too long, and the UEF might just not hold on in terms of actual logistics and army maintenance due to actual
physical attrition.
Who will get to that cracking point before? The "logical bets" would be on UEF just going down now pretty fast, but this is a novel, a fantasy, a good adventure, and the hero is in the UEF. So my actual bet is that the UEF will win with a ****ing bit twist, and hopefully not a deus ex machina (surely, the writers are good).
I mean, if Sheppard alone can destroy a whole fleet of reapers all by him/herself, why the **** not?