Well when half of your population is too dumb or easily manipulated to take the vaccine, yes, the effectiveness of the vaccine is pretty effectively compromised. It's like the antibiotic apocalypse. The virus is getting exposed to vaccine-boosted immune systems. So selection pressure drives the virus in the direction of mutations that can evade the vaccine. If everyone had the vaccine, there would be precious few places for the virus to breed and mutate, so it might actually be possible to kill it off. But with half the population in utter denial, they are perfect breeding ground while the virus plays out random permutations to break through the vaccine barrier.
As long as this situation remains unchanged, it seems pretty obvious to me how it will play out. The virus isn't going to stop, and we don't have the collective will power to do what it takes to stop it. In the meantime, my governor not only will not reinstate a mask mandate even as cases skyrocket, he has made it illegal for local city government (including school districts) from requiring masks to be worn.
School just started again, and my kids are nearly the only ones wearing masks there, and I just got emails informing me that 2 students in my daughter's class have been infected, and she's been exposed. She's vaccinated, and again, she wears her mask. But by now, how many other kids have been infected, even if she has not? I'm right on the ragged edge of hitting my panic button and pulling them out of school.