[headdie]

Ultimately the established order is the elders, as the heads of government and not the admirals in charge, and the elders are ordering a defensive posture while they continue to explore diplomatic routes.  For the 2nd and 3rd to go on the offensive they had to declare autonomy from the established chain of command, the 1st remains utterly loyal to the elders and will not go against their wishes and so the first fleet will only act to protect Earth, the moon and associated trade routes.

[CT27]

It's been said the "middle ground" needs to be reached, what exactly would that be?

Since the UEF wants independence, wouldn't "middle ground" involve lessening that independence?  What would be acceptable to both the UEF and GTVA?

[headdie]

It's been said the "middle ground" needs to be reached, what exactly would that be?

Since the UEF wants independence, wouldn't "middle ground" involve lessening that independence?  What would be acceptable to both the UEF and GTVA?

perhaps membership as an equal standing to the Terrans and Vasudans, so instead of Sol being part of the Terran element of the alliance they stand as a separate, independent voice so the UEF becomes a semi-autonomous element like the Vasudan Imperium, part of the alliance but a distinct element and cohesive government

[BlasterNT]

That still wouldn't fix the GTVA's chief reason for going to war, which was to prevent the Ubuntu doctrine from spreading

[headdie]

very true, but then the UEF dont care about that

[CT27]

So is there any way WIH could end without being at either extreme end of the possible ending spectrum (GTVA civil war due to civil unrest...........total subjugation of Sol) since it appears both sides don't want to budge (GTVA doesn't want Ubuntu to survive and UEF wants to stay independent)?

[headdie]

tbh even if the GTVA wins totally It could still end up failing to squash Ubuntu.  In this case the UEF fail as a government and a military, but win ideologically which in some respects is the preferable way for the Elders as it fuels the rebirth of the ideology to take hold in a non military fashion, which is a worse case scenario for the GTVA as without an armed resistance they have little they can fight back with.  Also history is on their side in this, look at my own country, England, in our attempts to wipe out the Scottish and Welsh Celts, not to mention the disaster that is Ireland.  And it is a pattern that is repeated throughout history, while a population continues to exist even after being conquered, their ideology, their identity will invariably carry on and at some point will start regaining gaining momentum, often not only in the conquered people but also in the people of the conquers.

Beyond this the only chance the UEF realistically have is to either force a diplomatic solution and/or reseal the node.

[mormon_boy]

the UEF do have one other option. they could appeal to a higher power be it vishnans, shivans, or those mystic gods that they go on about assuming they actually exist. simply put if they can throw a powerful 3rd faction into the mix that is either on thier side or against everyone the out come of the wars could be very different

[BlasterNT]

That's hinted at with Laporte's Nagari sensitivity, and the whole deal with the secret package received in One Perfect Moment. 

IIRC, the GTVA plans to implement some of what it views as the less detrimental to shivan resistance portions of Ubuntu, probably including some of its economic thought and strategy. 

[SaltyWaffles]

That still wouldn't fix the GTVA's chief reason for going to war, which was to prevent the Ubuntu doctrine from spreading

That's my point, though: the spread of Ubuntu culture has clearly been proven to not be a significant threat to GTVA security. Period.

The UEF is not the pacifist, anti-military culture that it was initially perceived as. The UEF has continually demonstrated that they are competent and rational enough to hold their own in the military arena, and they certainly kept a very powerful military force despite being completely isolated and having no enemies more threatening than the Gaian Effort.

Further, the Second Incursion is an invincible political point--being anti-military and irrationally pacifistic would only invite certain annihiliation. And since the UEF is definitely not anti-military, even when the threat of a Shivan invasion wasn't present, this really shouldn't be much of a problem.

But further, the spread of Ubuntu would actually improve the GTVA's security: a more united and happier people means less worry/effort about insurgencies and civil wars, much better morale, improving a weak economy, and giving the terran side of the GTVA something to believe in about themselves for the first time in decades.

While I'm sure there'd be some disagreement about the naunces of military spending, it's not worth going to war over, and it can be pretty easily resolved peacefully, at least to a degree that is acceptable to both sides.

Further, though, is that the Vishnans change the dynamic: they're an entity capable of matching the Shivans, and they're at least somewhat benevolent. They've already helped the GTVA out significantly (in AoA), defended their better qualities and potential in an argument with the Shivans, and expressed hope that the 14th BG would bring the rest of its race to enlightenment. Having them on your side and invested in your safety and development (at least culturally) is a MUCH more comforting measure of security against the Shivans than a slightly better military.

Not to mention that the GTVA should know quite well that maintaining a healthy economy always results in a much better military in the long run, and drastically reduces the threats of insurgency, civil war, and disunity.

The GTVA High Command should KNOW, at this point, that they can't achieve a true victory. Even if they win militarily, and the Ubuntu parties are outlawed and Council of Elders disbanded, the entire population of Sol will not forget, and they will have a very hard time forgiving. Attempting to keep its population bottled up in Sol will further fuel discontent by the terran population, and keeping the rest of the terran population from entering Sol will have a similar effect. If Sol's citizens don't actively resist the GTVA's oppressive rule, they'll make their discontent well known and highly durable.

The end result is that, no matter what, some kind of ideology will spread from Sol into the rest of the GTVA. The longer this war goes on, and the worse it gets, the worse that spreading ideology will be. Worst case scenario is open rebellion/defiance/breaking away from the GTVA because of what it did in the war. Its worst mistake was its gambit to assassinate an Elder on a diplomatic mission and frame the UEF for it. If one went into it with an open mind, the evidence is overwhelming and widespread (or it will be soon enough)...and when it gets out, the consequences will be severe. Laporte was right when she said it was going too far--not because it killed one person (or any one person), but what it meant: assassinating a friendly, well-intentioned diplomat on a diplomatic mission to achieve a peace beneficial to all factions, and framing the UEF for the act (or rather, claiming the entire setup was faked by the UEF and the Elder was never killed). That's lying to your allies in the worst way possible, and adding fuel to the potential firestorm is that the Vasudans went out on a limb by trusting their allies' word immediately in spite of the evidence, and openly proclaiming that trust.

I don't know why the GTVA HighComm is so suspicious and hostile towards the Vishnans--the Vishnans represent their best hope for survival and growth as a species, and they at least have an idea of how to strengthen the likelihood of Vishnan protection in case of Shivan attack. The UEF Council of Elders (and others, like Nagari-sensitives) seem to know what's going on and what the stakes are, which makes you wonder why they haven't tried to explain this to the GTVA High Command yet.

[An4ximandros]

I am under the assumption (given the references I found in BP) that the Vishnans are manipulating events to subvert humanity and the Vasudans, and that Nagari sensitive GTVA officers may be aware of it in some form, given the dialogue on the fourth mission (I saw what you did there!) you hear from GTVA characters, from that same mission, I am also inclined to believe that the vish and shivs are afraid of the Humans becoming the new "Ancients."

Which leads me to Ubuntu, this is exactly what they want, to reduce the power to wage war on the GTVA and make them weaker, easier to manipulate, enthrall or destroy, the GTVA is aware of this and it's why they are so fearful of Ubuntu, they see it as the end of the Human race, so long as the Shivans (and Vishnans) exist the GTVA will never be safe, lower guard for one moment and it's over.

Also I do believe the Byrne's super awesome project is a device to communicate with the Shivans/Vishnans (given  the Cargo container & the GTVA retrieval squad on "For the Wrong Reasons")

[mormon_boy]

i was under the impression the BP vishnans and shivans were trying to cultivate an advanced spieces not prevent its creation (but to achieve their goal there would have to be some moments where they beat thier target down so their target can build itsself back up)

[Black_Yoshi1230]

i was under the impression the BP vishnans and shivans were trying to cultivate an advanced spieces not prevent its creation (but to achieve their goal there would have to be some moments where they beat thier target down so their target can build itsself back up)

Something doesn't add up... it's something about the Vishnans and Shivans being sort of... a Great Council (that is of course, paying attention to the dialogue in Universal Truth, not knowing if there were/are other races in the Council), and the "you failed Good Luck" side's PVE dead as sand... With the Shivans banished from that side of space, heaven knows if they're going to ransack some other dimension (I'm not going to go to the damn Fringe Effect, because that doesn't apply here and I fell for that by Journey's End).

Besides, isn't humanity typically the wild card of the galaxy?

[headdie]

@SaltyWaffles

firstly the UEF is anti-military.  The key is the difference in how the 3 regions develop both prior to and after the original node collapse upto the start of the war.  With iirc the 2nd and 3rd having to deal more with GEFs, pirates an the like they have become the kind of followers that attends the temple when required, they pay it lip service when needed, but dont really live the faith like they should.  The first on the other hand due to having an easier time of it in general and their proximity to the Elders are the loyal followers both of the elders and and the  Ubuntu Ideology.  The fleet in general is there as a necessity for maintaining social order rather than to defend against external threats, hence the controversy of building the Solaris class in the first place, indeed much of WiH is riddled with Lapore trying to reconcile Ubuntu's pacifist nature with the slaughter of war she is taking part in.

The Vishans vs Shivans are a bit too much of an unknown to properly judge, they seem to be a benevolent entity trying to develop the Terrans and Vasudans through encouragement, but AoA gives us little evidence either way.  They along with the Shivans seem to be part of a master plan to develop the Terrans, Vasudans and possibly others to fill a certain role in the universe but what that is remains to be seen.  As for the Shivans the last mission before the player returns to their proper universe would indicate that the Shivans are also trying to shape the Terrans and Vasudans but by testing them in war.

It will be interesting to see if either show up in ptII and what roll they play if they do

[redsniper]

I think now is a good time to remind you all that what we saw and heard about the Vishnans in AoA was all just how they portrayed themselves to Sam. It might not be wise to take them at face value or trust them so readily....

[mormon_boy]

even if the vishnans are in this for some nefarious plot to harvest the physic essence of man or some other plot all the UEF need is to get either the vishnans or the shivans to generally attack the sol system or the next system over so they can get in on the gtva's mutual enemy relationship between the the terrans and the vasudans

[SaltyWaffles]

I think now is a good time to remind you all that what we saw and heard about the Vishnans in AoA was all just how they portrayed themselves to Sam. It might not be wise to take them at face value or trust them so readily....

Considering how powerful the Shivans are, how extant they are, and how vulnerable the GTVA would still remain well into the future, I'd definitely put my lot in with the guys who by and large helped us out many times in a row in big ways, and went through a lot of effort to act largely benevolently for a bunch of relative strangers. They even defended terrans and vasudans (morally/politically/militarily) in a direct and pivotal confrontation with the Shivans. And they seem to be the only race capable of fully matching the Shivans.

So sure, I don't exactly trust them all that much, but given the situation, being a valuable pawn with the protection of several queens is much more preferable to being a lone knight against several queens. While it's technically possible that the Vishnans were deceiving us all along, all consequences and direct evidence be damned, I still rather doubt that the Vishnans have particularly bad and strict goals in mind for the terran and vasudan races.

Maybe the Vishnans have an Assimilation Plot in mind for the allied races--making them into a new, non-artificial subspace stack entity to fulfill the role of the Brahmans of old. Assuming that this is not a desirable outcome, it seems like it would still be dependent on the GTVA population being willing and ready for the process in the first place. I obviously don't know with any kind of certainty, but the Vishnans don't seem to be the type to force "enlightenment" on a race that believes itself to not be "ready" for something like that.

Besides, if the GTVA/Tev leadership believes itself incapable of checking the potential spread and growth of Ubuntu culture, even with the invincible and overt points of the Second Shivan Incursion/Capella and whatever evidence the Tev government has on the dangers of "enlightenment"/being highly obedient to the Vishnans, then Tev culture absolutely sucks, along with its seeming lack of adaptability, common sense (Let relations between terrans and vasudans whither to cold, barely friendly levels--even in the joint government? Great idea! Mutual defense, technology/expertise collaboration, and economic aid are totally useless anyway!), and political competence.

Oh, and if the Vasudan culture is quite similar to Ubuntu culture, wouldn't it give the Tev leadership pause about beliefs of pacifism/fragility regarding Ubuntu culture? Seeing as vasudan culture is evidently very durable and still quite good on defense?

It's been said the "middle ground" needs to be reached, what exactly would that be?

Since the UEF wants independence, wouldn't "middle ground" involve lessening that independence?  What would be acceptable to both the UEF and GTVA?

It's entirely up to the GTVA leadership at this point, which is the problem. They seem to be hell-bent on utterly decimating the UEF's governments, culture, political systems, and any kind of independence. That's kind of approaching unconditional surrender. In other words, the GTVA high command won't settle for anything that's even remotely "middle ground", and to top it all off, they're the total, sole, and unfettered aggressor in this conflict.

Which kind of infuriates me a bit; this goes beyond ends justifying means, it's downright impractical and immoral. For one, if Tev culture and political capability is really that bad, then what makes them think they can wipe out Ubuntu culture and secure the loyalty--politically, culturally, economically, and militarily--after giving every reason for Sol's population to hate the Tevs? The NTF Rebellion would be nothing compared to this; if the Fedayeen are any indication, the GTVA can't succeed in truly containing any influence from Sol, and the cause for this rebellion/dissent is vastly more potent and relatable than NTF ideals. Combine that with the assassination incident, and you've got a potential catastrophe that the Tev leadership seems (or believes itself to be) incapable of effectively preventing.

[An4ximandros]

I personally think that given the amount of work that the writer(s) put into blue planet, the wording in the Nebula mission from hell might imply that it's possible that someone who has achieved full Nagari potential could work like a singularity and "absorb" the rest of a species and keep them bound into the union sought after by the Vishnans. 

I believe Laporte can do this to the human race and the Jester might be able to do so as well for the Vasudans.

It's possible the Shivans DON'T want them to replace the Brahmans since given the Great War and the Capellan incident the "ascended" Humans and Vasudans might replace them with something else and destroy them, though they might see the Ubuntu Humans as someone they could work with.

I think the Vishnans are trying to force the issue (given the comments on the developers commentary) because whatever the "Deepness that stalks the cold roads" is, It's become a significant threat to to them and/or life in the Universe(s.)

And maybe the Deepness is the Ancients.