[The E]

I don't claim to be an intellectual or whatever, but there's 1 thing I've learned for sure: It doesn't matter how much thought, abstraction and what else you put into your awnser - if the awnser is just rude... it's just rude.

There is a time for civility and trying to bridge gaps and make compromises, and a time for telling people with patently wrong and harmful opinions to **** off and get a grip on reality.

4 million cases (That's more than 1 in a hundred US citizens; the chances of an american being infected themself or someone in their extended social circle having been infected is rapidly approaching certainty) and 140000 deaths in, all largely attributable to people who were aggressively downplaying the severity of the virus or who are insisting on making others around them unsafe through their ignorance and behaviour, the time for civility and "being nice" is past (And that's before we even get to topics like Goober's support for Trump "to make the liberals mad" being in a tiny little way responsible for outbreaks of actual government terror campaigns!).

[Mito [PL]]

Firstly

Are you and your family ok

Out of everything that the US is doing, I don't really understand opening up public schools. Not only they're the most prevalent "petri dishes" in the society, but also don't they just not profit anyone?

[X3N0-Life-Form]

Does it not strike anyone else as bat-**** insane that we have to move a thread about a deadly viral pandemic into the Politics category? This should not be political.

Relevant thing I posted to Twitter on Feb 28.

Easily the scariest thing about the Coronavirus is that @realDonaldTrump and his administration have made it political. Now it's about saving Trump instead of saving lives.

Yeah, that's kinda sad.

That being said, as rude as Battuta comes off in a vacuum, I can't say I can blame him for refusing to work with Goober and being vocal about it, especially after living splat-bang in the middle of the US corona ****-storm for the past few months.


What I find especially sad, is that the US seems to have just ... given up trying the control the pandemic at all. I mean I know that they're used to sacrificing people on the altar of the almighty $ or for political gain, but it's still shocking to see it on such a large scale.

[Luis Dias]

Arguing with MAGAworld reveals a lot how they're processing the idea that this virus is actually to be taken seriously after all.

They have two major angles, as far as I can tell. The first is to deny Trump has been doing anything remotely incompetent. "What has he done that anyone else hasn't, or what hasn't he done? He's just the president, he can't force the states to follow the guidelines", etc. The gaslighting on this front end is incredible, but it is helped by the second angle, which has been to follow the first up with "For instance, NY has ignored the guidelines, and look what happened", and they follow this argument up with statistics on how the virus majorly spread to the rest of the country fromNew York.

This is how they'll defend it. They'll both tell you that Trump isn't to be responsible for what happens in the US soil, but will readibly blame Cuomo (conveniently democrat) or someone else for what happens in their territory.

It's maddening, but I am afraid it will be marginally successful. The thing that brings me hope is the daily polls between Biden and Trump that place the former at 10, 15 points ahead of Orange Man.

[GhylTarvoke]

Dude, do not ****ing lump Fauci in with Trump.  He's literally the sole voice of reason and science right now.

Um, what? I completely agree with you. Fauci is almost the only person I trust.

I'd suggest that Fauci didn't underestimate the virus so much as he completely underestimated just how much of a goddamn moron Trump is.

THIS.

Everything Fauci said was scientifically correct. We know it's correct because it was correct in South Korea. It was correct in Taiwan. It was correct in Vietnam. Even the stuff about masks. We STILL don't know if that helped or not.

Read my wall of quotes again and tell me that Fauci didn't underestimate the virus. The mask thing is debatable, but to the best of my knowledge, none of Fauci's pre-Italy statements conveyed the (in hindsight) appropriate level of urgency.

Why didn't America's top infectious disease expert foresee the worst global crisis since WWII? Because he was simply working with the data available to him at the time. He couldn't know how contagious the virus was, or how much it was driven by asymptomatic carriers, or how serious a threat it posed, until it started hitting countries that actually shared their data.

Of course, the U.S. has long passed the point when it could blame China. My only comfort is that the Trump administration will probably burn for this.

[GhylTarvoke]

The thing that brings me hope is the daily polls between Biden and Trump that place the former at 10, 15 points ahead of Orange Man.

I think Trump is toast. Every poll gives Biden a big lead. With the virus hitting red states that reopened hastily, approval ratings of most GOP governors are falling. In the month of June alone, Gallup recorded an eight-point shift in party affiliation. And I can't see the virus situation improving by November.

[mjn.mixael]

Out of everything that the US is doing, I don't really understand opening up public schools. Not only they're the most prevalent "petri dishes" in the society, but also don't they just not profit anyone?

It's part of a larger trend that the White House is working on... and it all has to do with the election in November. The goal is to get people to forget about the pandemic entirely rather than deal with it. Let's not forget that the White House has ordered all Covid data be sent to the Administration and specifically not to the CDC.

[BlueFlames]

Out of everything that the US is doing, I don't really understand opening up public schools. Not only they're the most prevalent "petri dishes" in the society, but also don't they just not profit anyone?

Can't have both parents working, if they don't have anywhere to put the children for the day.

Decisions that will cost lives are never more than a single step removed from money.

[mjn.mixael]

To clarify, the trend is as follows...

1) Stop testing. Trump is telling officials to slow down testing. Here we have an example of a testing site doing just that. Gotta keep those numbers down for Step 3.

2) Next hospitals are ordered to send Covid data to the White House and not the CDC. Gotta stop people from getting an accurate picture of just how bad it is. As a bonus the White House can send out any chart it wants. Do you think this administration will be truthful?

3) Now we send the kids back to school so the parents can get back to work. It's all about normalcy. The pandemic murdered Trump's re-election bid. This is a bold attempt to get it back.

4) Announce the pandemic is under control.

5) Hope it's enough to get re-elected.

Of course this is all superficial and people will still get Covid. They will still get potentially permanent heart, lung, or brain damage. People will still be dying from the disease. (Important side-note here: The death count is a big deal. But it's only a part of the picture. The permanent health effects are also very, very important to track and we just aren't doing that.) We just won't be able to see just how bad it is. It's unfathomably dangerous that Trump is actually in the process of this. Mark my words.. this is going to get far worse before it gets better.

[perihelion]

As I watch the body count go higher, wondering what could possibly be going through that man's head, suddenly I recall the first few seconds of this scene from Babylon 5.  And then suddenly it starts to click. 

Now, is this just me indulging in my inner melodrama?  I wish I could say "yes."  But I honestly don't know if I'm being paranoid enough where this administration is concerned.  Cutting off the CDC at the knees in the height of a pandemic?  Under what set of goals could that possibly make sense?  Only if "winning" does NOT include minimizing the death of your citizens.

[karajorma]

Read my wall of quotes again and tell me that Fauci didn't underestimate the virus.

Okay. Reread.

He didn't underestimate the virus. What he underestimated is how dumb Trump would be about the virus. Taiwan has 7 deaths and less than 500 cases. Vietnam has NO deaths. Both countries have lots of connections to China.

But this is not a major threat to the people of Taiwan and this is not something that the citizens of Taiwan right now should be worried about.

The Vietnamese people should not be worried or frightened by this. It%u2019s a very, very low risk to Vietnam, but it%u2019s something we, as public health officials, need to take very seriously.

Are those statements suddenly untrue when the country they were about is changed? So why should they be untrue about America?

But the one thing historically people need to realize, that even if there is some asymptomatic transmission, in all the history of respiratory-borne illnesses of any type, asymptomatic transmission has never been the driver of outbreaks. The driver of outbreaks is always a symptomatic person, even if there's a rare asymptomatic person that might transmit, an epidemic is not driven by asymptomatic carriers.

How is this one wrong? There is some asymptomatic spread but there is a LOT more from people who are or who become symptomatic.

One, they should realize at this point, it is a low risk. And two, that risk can change, so pay attention to what%u2019s going on... So the question is, should we do anything different from what we%u2019re already doing? No. Should we all be wearing a mask? Absolutely not.

This statement is completely different depending on whether by "we" he meant the American people or the American government. It sounds suspiciously like he meant the former.

So although we don't want people to be worried now, I think we need to realize that this could change. So right now, don't worry about it. Be more concerned about influenza, which is going into a second peak for the season, than coronavirus.

If influenza has killed only one person in Vietnam, that's absolutely true for them. And again, it only needs to kill 8 in Taiwan.

So, anecdotally, it%u2019s clear that there are people who would judge to be asymptomatic when questioned, who very likely transmitted infection during the period of time that they were in the asymptomatic state. The question is, is that a predominant modality of transmission, what we call a driver of an outbreak, or is it one that%u2019s minor? From talking to people who are over there now, and we%u2019re getting more and more information as papers come in to look at to review, it looks like A, it does occur, but B, it is not something that is the predominant way that it%u2019s transmitted.

Even if Fauci was wrong about this one, the information that he was wrong came in WAY after the outbreak in Italy.

Why didn't America's top infectious disease expert foresee the worst global crisis since WWII? Because he was simply working with the data available to him at the time. He couldn't know how contagious the virus was, or how much it was driven by asymptomatic carriers, or how serious a threat it posed, until it started hitting countries that actually shared their data.

And yet the top infection disease experts in Taiwan and Vietnam DID foresee it. Are you claiming that they are clairvoyant? And you're still ignoring the point I made earlier. China shut down the entire country for 2000 cases. That's zombie plague level infectious! If you need more data than that, you're an idiot.

Fauci is not an idiot. Fauci works with someone who absolutely is and knew that if he said anything the idiot didn't like he would be replaced by an idiot. It's pretty clear that Fauci was taking the disease seriously right from the start. But he had to say it in a way that the idiot wouldn't pick up on it.



EDIT: Let me put things more simply. Italy didn't change the scientific evidence available. We already had those warnings. Italy changed the public perception from "This could never happen here" to "Oh ****! This could happen here!" You've just got things the wrong way round and assumed that because the public perception changed at that time, the perception of the scientists also must have changed. The very quotes you gave show that is nonsense. Fauci stated time after time that things could very easily change.

[GhylTarvoke]

He didn't underestimate the virus. What he underestimated is how dumb Trump would be about the virus.

And how dumb the UK, Ireland, Italy, Spain, France, Sweden, Belgium, Brazil, Mexico, and many other countries would be, apparently.

But this is not a major threat to the people of Taiwan and this is not something that the citizens of Taiwan right now should be worried about.

The Vietnamese people should not be worried or frightened by this. It%u2019s a very, very low risk to Vietnam, but it%u2019s something we, as public health officials, need to take very seriously.

Are those statements suddenly untrue when the country they were about is changed? So why should they be untrue about America?

Why are you doctoring Fauci's statements? I have no idea what you're babbling about. In hindsight, the virus was not a "very, very low risk" to any country in the world; places like Taiwan and Vietnam weathered the storm precisely because they took strong and early measures.

America's top infectious disease expert seriously underestimated the risk, even after seeing what happened in Wuhan. Wuhan was not the glaringly obvious harbinger of doom that you make it out to be, with your 20/20 hindsight. Fauci himself said that China did the world a disservice by withholding crucial data.

Why didn't America's top infectious disease expert foresee the worst global crisis since WWII? Because he was simply working with the data available to him at the time. He couldn't know how contagious the virus was, or how much it was driven by asymptomatic carriers, or how serious a threat it posed, until it started hitting countries that actually shared their data.

And yet the top infection disease experts in Taiwan and Vietnam DID foresee it. Are you claiming that they are clairvoyant? And you're still ignoring the point I made earlier. China shut down the entire country for 2000 cases. That's zombie plague level infectious! If you need more data than that, you're an idiot.

Fauci is not an idiot. Fauci works with someone who absolutely is and knew that if he said anything the idiot didn't like he would be replaced by an idiot. It's pretty clear that Fauci was taking the disease seriously right from the start. But he had to say it in a way that the idiot wouldn't pick up on it.



EDIT: Let me put things more simply. Italy didn't change the scientific evidence available. We already had those warnings. Italy changed the public perception from "This could never happen here" to "Oh ****! This could happen here!" You've just got things the wrong way round and assumed that because the public perception changed at that time, the perception of the scientists also must have changed. The very quotes you gave show that is nonsense. Fauci stated time after time that things could very easily change.

There are many possible explanations for Taiwan's and Vietnam's strong and early measures, not including "clairvoyance". Perhaps they were simply paranoid (rightly so, as it turned out); perhaps they were hypersensitive to danger from China (being under constant threat and/or being next door); perhaps they were burned once by SARS; perhaps they were advised by people more competent and informed than Fauci.

More importantly, of course, they were not hobbled by governments that ignored and undercut their scientists. But the Fauci-sidelining only began sometime in March; before then, he wasn't publicly doomsaying or advocating measures that the U.S. government disagreed with.

You seem to be painting Fauci as someone who always knew how dangerous the virus was, who always knew that it would cause the worst global crisis since WWII, but kept his mouth shut until New Yorkers started dying in droves, while covering his ass by repeatedly saying that things could very easily change. This is not only wild speculation, it's distasteful. Fauci tries to be diplomatic, but he has a reputation for not sugar-coating the truth.

[GhylTarvoke]

I don't think you understand Fauci at all. He'll avoid confrontations, but he won't knowingly mislead the public or offer false reassurances.

[X3N0-Life-Form]

He didn't underestimate the virus. What he underestimated is how dumb Trump would be about the virus.

And how dumb the UK, Ireland, Italy, Spain, France, Sweden, Belgium, Brazil, Mexico, and many other countries would be, apparently.

To be fair, outside of Brazil and possibly the UK, none of these countries have been nearly as dumb as the US for nearly as long.

[Grizzly]

But only a few of them have been as smart as Germany or Norway, which is very important.

[The E]

But only a few of them have been as smart as Germany or Norway, which is very important.

Germany wasn't "smart". Nothing my government did was "smart" in the sense of being innovative or unprecedented; everything that the RKI was recommending was textbook "This is how you fight a pandemic" stuff. I'm not going to go back and check, but I am pretty sure that the RKI's guidance on all matters COVID was, in many ways, similar to what Fauci was saying at the time -- The difference being that, while official statements were made to reassure people that there's no need to panic and COVID not being that big a risk overall, there was a lot of behind-the-scenes prepwork being done in case things went south, lots of labs getting early warnings to prep for massive sample testing in the future, hospitals starting to stock supplies and making plans for containment and such. And still: We were probably one or two weeks late with doing major shutdowns.

[karajorma]

And how dumb the UK, Ireland, Italy, Spain, France, Sweden, Belgium, Brazil, Mexico, and many other countries would be, apparently.

Are you really going to claim the UK wasn't dumb? That Brazil wasn't dumb? That Sweden wasn't dumb?

Why are you doctoring Fauci's statements?

You made the claim that Fauci's statements were wrong. You further claimed that it was scientific evidence from Italy which caused a change in his attitude to the virus. I think that's bull****. I'm pointing out that if you make the same statements about Vietnam and Taiwan which you claim undersold the danger of the virus they suddenly become true. Which shows that it wasn't the virus which was the problem, it was the reaction to it from the government.

In hindsight, the virus was not a "very, very low risk" to any country in the world; places like Taiwan and Vietnam weathered the storm precisely because they took strong and early measures.

Except that Fauci wasn't saying the virus was a very low risk to America. He was saying that it was a low risk to Americans. Had the American government reacted with strong and early measures Fauci's predictions would all have been true. In fact, I suspect people would be blaming scientists for overreacting to how dangerous the virus was when in the end next to no one died.

America's top infectious disease expert seriously underestimated the risk

You are the one using hindsight to make that claim. At the time most people listening to Fauci said he was pushing for stronger measures than the ones the government was taking. You are taking his comments with the benefit of hindsight and saying "No! That's not what he was saying!" Even though lots of people at the time understood full well that it was exactly what he was saying.

There are many possible explanations for Taiwan's and Vietnam's strong and early measures, not including "clairvoyance". Perhaps they were simply paranoid (rightly so, as it turned out); perhaps they were hypersensitive to danger from China (being under constant threat and/or being next door); perhaps they were burned once by SARS; perhaps they were advised by people more competent and informed than Fauci.

So you are now claiming that it was possible to make sensible decisions about coronavirus based on the science in January and February when Taiwan and Vietnam did it? Cause I take exception to your argument that Taiwan and Vietnam were right for the wrong reasons. That's the kind of dumb racist thinking that got the West into this mess in the first place.

[SilverAngelX]

Germany wasn't "smart". Nothing my government did was "smart" in the sense of being innovative or unprecedented; everything that the RKI was recommending was textbook "This is how you fight a pandemic" stuff.

It was at least smart in the sense that following proven procedures and listening to experts can help you through such a situation. You don't always have to reinvent the wheel, sometimes being smart just means using the right tools as described in the textbook. As we can all unfortunately witness right now, that's not the case everywhere...

That being said, neither the RKI nor Fauci were always right from the start. But that should be no surprise, since we had a new virus and new information came in all the time. So, it's only natural for scientists to evolve their position when new data becomes available. Unfortunately, this led to some people propagating the narrative that "those experts don't know what they say, either"...

[Grizzly]

Germany wasn't "smart". Nothing my government did was "smart" in the sense of being innovative or unprecedented;

I agree with you and concede that my wording could be better. Arguably, Germany was merely competent in an area where most people were not. Germany was well prepared enough to the point that Germany is the only reason the Netherlands didn't end up looking like Italy.

The Netherlands relied entirely on it's "infectious disease early warning system" and that one utterly failed. So there was no big preperation attempt, no stocking up on supplies, hardly any increase in ICU capacity. Nothing.

Speaking of the Netherlands: Our Rt went up to 1.29, first time since march it was above 1. Becuase lockdowns had been lifted under the condition that people kept 1.5 meters distance, and it for the past few weeks felt like I was the only guy bothering with that... So now we pay the price.

[Nightmare]

There are many possible explanations for Taiwan's and Vietnam's strong and early measures, not including "clairvoyance". Perhaps they were simply paranoid (rightly so, as it turned out); perhaps they were hypersensitive to danger from China (being under constant threat and/or being next door); perhaps they were burned once by SARS; perhaps they were advised by people more competent and informed than Fauci.

So you are now claiming that it was possible to make sensible decisions about coronavirus based on the science in January and February when Taiwan and Vietnam did it? Cause I take exception to your argument that Taiwan and Vietnam were right for the wrong reasons. That's the kind of dumb racist thinking that got the West into this mess in the first place.

The region has been affected by various virus outbreaks in the past, most prominent before was SARS, so it's nothing new to them. Taiwan isn't part of the WHO and has no direct access to their information so they have to rely on their own sources; IIRC their Intel told them that there's a new virus in the PRC and they acted accordingly.