[-Norbert-]

I just let the end of AoA pass through my head again and let my mind wander a bit.
Could it be that the apperent failure of the 14th battlegroup, to stick to the plan was actually a good thing for the GTVA?

I mean their plan was to go in, jump into Earth and Mars orbit and then demand the surrender, right?
But the Renjian was there almost immediately, so they'd have to either ignore it's demands and jump as soon as they were ready or destroy it. Both would have asured that the UEF puts their ships in alert.
Let's assume they split into two groups, one destroyer and two/three corvettes each.

From the backstory we know that the Calder alone had several Frigates at the ready, but held them back, because of the speed with which the Renjian was dealt with, but if the enemy splits up, he would surely have bounced and fallen into the back of one of the groups. And a couple of Karunas isn't something a GTVA fleet wants to have at their backside, where they have the fewest weapons (especially anti-capships beams). With all the sensors the UEF had in place before the GTVA started blowing them up, a pinpoint jump right behind their backs is almost asured.

With the way the martian mindset was portraited, we can assume the Netrebas 2nd fleet had a similar amount of ships ready to deal with the second group.

So if the 14th hadn't gone to the parallel universe, they might have all been destroyed or captured by the UEF and thus given Sol the chance to put up a serious blockade at the node, which might have ended the war, before it really began.

[Dragon]

Note, UEF were clueless about true power of GTVA, at least at first. Their ships also were weaker, by the time of WiH UEF technology improved greatly.
If it wasn't for Renjian, UEF wouldn't even know how fast a GTVA ship can deal with a Karuna. Also, if a fleet of ships threatened to nuke Mars and Earth into oblivion, UEF would've most likely surrendered. How do you deal with a foe that can obliterate over 10 billion people if you don't agree to their terms?

[crizza]

Plus, there was a backup force in Delta Serpentis, so the 14th at full power could've obliterate the Renijan, jump into position while the backup started to jump in.

[Deadly in a Shadow]

Even if the full-powered 14th would have failed, the Tevs just would have send
So if the 14th hadn't gone to the parallel universe, they might have all been destroyed or captured by the UEF and thus given Sol the chance to put up a serious blockade at the node, which might have ended the war, before it really began.

That's a point I don't understand. The full-powered 14th, not being weakened by shivans, tiredness and material shortage, would be able to deal a serious blow. There would be some defections, but Admiral Bei, for example, only changed his mind after visiting that alternate universe. On the other side, even the 14th wouldn't be strong enough to destroy the UEF in one strike. The tevs would have sent more ships anyway, therefore preventing the UEF from establishing a blockade.

Captain Leicester was foolish enough to attack a battlegroup full of really big ships. Did he REALLY thought that the GTVA didn't developed some serious weaponry over time?

[-Norbert-]

Even if the full-powered 14th would have failed, the Tevs just would have send
So if the 14th hadn't gone to the parallel universe, they might have all been destroyed or captured by the UEF and thus given Sol the chance to put up a serious blockade at the node, which might have ended the war, before it really began.

Hm... where did the first line come from? Not from my post....

That's a point I don't understand. The full-powered 14th, not being weakened by shivans, tiredness and material shortage, would be able to deal a serious blow. There would be some defections, but Admiral Bei, for example, only changed his mind after visiting that alternate universe. On the other side, even the 14th wouldn't be strong enough to destroy the UEF in one strike. The tevs would have sent more ships anyway, therefore preventing the UEF from establishing a blockade.

The 14th was able to take the Renjian down in a single salvo, because it was right in front of them (because the Shivans attacked from the side and behind, the forward firepower was pretty much fully intact). If they split in two and jump through the UEFs sensor net, the UEF can jump right into their backs and attack them before they have a chance to fire at the planets. As far as I know you can't jump right into firing range of the planet, due to the gravity involved.
Also the GTVA wasn't yet aware of the UEFs superiour strikecraft. Remember the articles about the horrendous losses among strikecraft for the GTVA, till they adapted their strategy (though they still lose plenty of them during the campaign).

With the 14th staying at the node, the UEF Elders had the leverage to keep the military at bay. If they were inbound on Earth and Mars, the military would have been forced to intervene immediately, even if they didn't want to.

Captain Leicester was foolish enough to attack a battlegroup full of really big ships. Did he REALLY thought that the GTVA didn't developed some serious weaponry over time?

Not really foolish, he just didn't have another choice.
Because he just jumped in, the jumpdrives were not ready, so he couldn't retreat. He go an ultimatum "Surrender or die". If he hadn't opened fire first, the GTVA would have gotting the first shot in. If battle is unavoidable I'd rather be the one to shoot first, especially if I have weapons that are good at taking out enemy turrets and thus have a chance of weakening the enemies opening salvo.
So it came down to surrender, letting them have the first shots, or shooting first. And from what I saw of the Jovians, they rather die than surrender.
On top of that he knew about the rest of Calders forces, that were ready to jump in at a moments notice.

[NGTM-1R]

they might have all been destroyed or captured by the UEF

This statement is utterly ridiculous.

[-Norbert-]

It is utterly ridiculous that one destroyer, two corvettes and two cruisers might lose, when attacked by five Karunas from behind, which are supported by strikecraft vastly superiour to their own?

[Dragon]

And why would UEF know to attack these ships from behind? I don't think they'd take such precautions on their first attack, or even be able to jump so precisely. Also, their armament and fighters would be much weaker than at the time of WiH. Not to mention nobody would risk sending frigates when GTVA could launch a volley of missiles at key cities on Mars and Earth the second a subspace vortex started to open.

[headdie]

It is utterly ridiculous that one destroyer, two corvettes and two cruisers might lose, when attacked by five Karunas from behind, which are supported by strikecraft vastly superiour to their own?

they would have to know to attack from range to make it work as the GTVA warships would easily manoeuvre to bring their beams in full view.  Problem is the UEF don't know about that weakness at the point of the initial invasion. 

OK the GTVA would loose a bucket load of fighters but the UEF will bleed capships which is a lot more costly from a moral standpoint

[-Norbert-]

And why would UEF know to attack these ships from behind?

Are you serious?
From the destruction of whatever ship they send as first reaction (like the Renjian) they'd know that the front is bristling with weapons. If you can't get them from the front, try the other side, especially when that other side houses such massive engines that there is almost no room to put turrets on.

I don't think they'd take such precautions on their first attack, or even be able to jump so precisely.

They did with the two Narayana that attacked the Atreus in Darkest Hour.

Also, their armament and fighters would be much weaker than at the time of WiH.

The Renjian was fully armed, the same way the ships in the campaign where, right when the first shot of the war was made.

Not to mention nobody would risk sending frigates when GTVA could launch a volley of missiles at key cities on Mars and Earth the second a subspace vortex started to open.

If we take the way ships act ingame as canon for what they can and can't do, they can't launch missiles from that far away. And even if they did, those torpedoes are so damn slow they can easily be shot down in time before they reach the atmosphere.

It is utterly ridiculous that one destroyer, two corvettes and two cruisers might lose, when attacked by five Karunas from behind, which are supported by strikecraft vastly superiour to their own?

they would have to know to attack from range to make it work as the GTVA warships would easily manoeuvre to bring their beams in full view.

Actually they don't. I just tried a little experiment in FRED with a Raynor, Bellerophon, Chimera and Hyperion against five Karunas from behind. The GTVA had three fighter and two bomber wings (all with 3 waves and 4 ships each), the UEF had one Uriel wing (4 fighters 1 wave.... actually only 3 combatants, since I was sitting back watching), one Uhlan, one Kentauroi wing (with 4 ships and 2 waves) and a wing of three Durga (with 2 waves).
The GTVA strike craft where armed with Balor, Prom S (Kayser for wing leader) and Maxim according to their role as primaries and Harpoon/Tornado for fighters, Tornato/Cyclops/Helios for Boanerges, Helios/Stiletto for Rhea (orderd to disarm Karunas) as secondaries.
UEF fighters were default equiped for the most part, except the Uriels, who'm I gave Javelin/Hellfire/Jackhammer (in anticipation of me ordering them around to fill what role needed filling... which I neglected in favour of watching). All ships had BP-Captain as AI profile and the difficulty was set to medium.

So even with the GTVA having top equipment on their fighters and having more fighters, the GTVA lost three out of three times. Twice two Karunas survived, once it was three survivors.
The battles were over before they degenerated into a circling match, but the mass drivers, gauss cannons and torpedoes made such short work of the frontal beams, that the GTVA only got off two salvoes of beamfire.

I know this doesn't proof that the UEF always wins such a fight, but it shows that it is at least a real possibility, or maybe even likely, even though they were well within beam range right from the start.

[MatthTheGeek]

And why would UEF know to attack these ships from behind?

Are you serious?
From the destruction of whatever ship they send as first reaction (like the Renjian) they'd know that the front is bristling with weapons. If you can't get them from the front, try the other side, especially when that other side houses such massive engines that there is almost no room to put turrets on.

Problem, they don't have any of that info. Re-read the material on BP's site, Calder had no idea what he was going into when he sent his fleet against the 14th shortly after the Renjian. They just lost contact with the ship and don't know how it was obliterated. And I don't expect the Tevs to give them the time to recon and analyse their ships before they move into bombardment position. At which point, they're the ones dictating the conditions.

Also, their armament and fighters would be much weaker than at the time of WiH.

The Renjian was fully armed, the same way the ships in the campaign where, right when the first shot of the war was made.

Yeah, right. You can totally draw conclusions about three whole fleets and their fighter complement from a single ship appearing in one mission for a few seconds.

Actually they don't. I just tried a little experiment in FRED with a Raynor, Bellerophon, Chimera and Hyperion against five Karunas from behind.
<snip>
So even with the GTVA having top equipment on their fighters and having more fighters, the GTVA lost three out of three times. Twice two Karunas survived, once it was three survivors.
The battles were over before they degenerated into a circling match, but the mass drivers, gauss cannons and torpedoes made such short work of the frontal beams, that the GTVA only got off two salvoes of beamfire.

I know this doesn't proof that the UEF always wins such a fight, but it shows that it is at least a real possibility, or maybe even likely, even though they were well within beam range right from the start.

Not surprising. the BP team mentioned several time that they had to guardian the Imperieuse's frontal BBlues in Delenda Est because 90% of the time, the Wargods would just kill the dishes and slowly pound the Titan to death instead of being obliterated as the mission script expected them to. UEF ships are very, very good at disarming tev capships, and that's without any help from the mission designer (actually quite the opposite).

Conclusion: don't give too much importance to the ingame stats, as they are just guidelines that the BP team itself isn't afraid to turn around when they see fit.

[crizza]

The gauss cannons and massdrivers target turrets and the like while beams just fire away or am I mistaken?
What would happen if the Tevs would've sniping beams, which would take out subsystems and the like?

[-Norbert-]

Yeah, right. You can totally draw conclusions about three whole fleets and their fighter complement from a single ship appearing in one mission for a few seconds.

I didn't say all ships in all three fleets were fully armed. But I think that the emergency response teams of 2nd and 3rd fleet were.

The gauss cannons and massdrivers target turrets and the like while beams just fire away or am I mistaken?
What would happen if the Tevs would've sniping beams, which would take out subsystems and the like?

With beams you could very reliably one-shot the enemy turrets. The downside is that the beams need very long before they can fire again (compared to UEF weapons). Slasher and AAA beams seem to lack in terms of subsystem damage, judging from what I've seen ingame (no idea about their stats in the files).

[Dragon]

Actually, slashers are more like dedicated anti-subsystem beams, trading overall damage for being able to strip several subsystems at once.

If we take the way ships act ingame as canon for what they can and can't do, they can't launch missiles from that far away. And even if they did, those torpedoes are so damn slow they can easily be shot down in time before they reach the atmosphere.

GTVA can do orbital bombardment, you'll see it in R2. They also bombed Luna City, which is already in R1. And though GTVA torpedoes are slow, UEF wouldn't know it. They wouldn't put so many lives at stake, gambling that they'd be able to shot down th torps in space. As mentioned, Calder had no idea of GTVA ships capabilities, even details on their shape were sketchy. And precise jumping, Narayana artillery and plenty of fighter weapons were, IIRC, wartime inventions. Naras were rather pathetic in combat before the refit, and antimatter stocks being made into torpedoes was also really done after the war started. So, your mission would need to have the fighters not equipped with torpedoes and torps on Karunas weakened (AM torps were only produced after the war started). Renjian had the same armament as later Karunas only because it'd take too much table space to make special weapons for it, and it doesn't kill anything anyway.

[Woolie Wool]

The events of Age of Aquarius were a tactical and strategic disaster of monumental proportions for the GTVA. The GTVA's whole strategy in Sol relied on using overwhelming force to break the UEF's back before they can get together any sort of significant resistance. Asymmetrical warfare against the UEF is a losing game; the UEF have a far more politically unified body politic and the home-turf advantage, they can disperse their assets and bleed the GTVA's political will dry using insurgent tactics.  The GTVA did not want to wage this kind of war, and were not suited for it.

If the Sol Gate had worked as intended, the GTVA would have been able to bring the overwhelming force to bear immediately, which would have been multiplied by the element of surprise. Faced with a technologically, militarily, and numerically superior enemy whose capabilities aren't even known, the UEF could well have caved within a week or two.

AoA eliminated the surprise advantage, derailed the plan for the campaign, destroyed the inexorable momentum the Tevs were counting on, left the 14th battle group exhausted and understrength, and worst of all, gave the UEF time to adapt/regroup and comprehensive intel on pretty much everything related to the GTVA as well as a great deal of Tev materiel, technology, and resources from the defectors!

AoA was pretty much the worst thing that could have possibly happened under the circumstances. If Admiral Bei's battle group had been stuck in the other universe and never returned, it still probably wouldn't have been as big a setback as what actually happened. In fact from a storytelling perspective it's suspiciously convenient considering how many advantages it gives the UEF and handicaps it gives the GTVA.

And no, the Feds would not be able to use the tricks they use in WiH to defeat GTVA capital ships. They wouldn't know of the weaknesses, they wouldn't have formulated any of the tricks, and they'd be in no position to use them anyway. When surprise attacked by a superior opponent, you do not choose the terms under which you fight, the enemy does. The GTVA would pick their fights to maximize their own strengths and the UEF would be forced to fight on the Tevs' terms. In a blitzkrieg-style advance, the attackers act, and the defenders can only react.

[crizza]

So...would it be a Pearl Harbour style thing if AoA didn't happen?
Would be rather funny to see GTVA ship blowing off whole Fed formations^^

[-Norbert-]

Actually, slashers are more like dedicated anti-subsystem beams, trading overall damage for being able to strip several subsystems at once.

If the pathing would be chosen in a way to specifically hit an area with many subsystems and the beam is sweeped more slowly, then maybe. In my experience, the way the slashers work right now, they usually don't contact any subsystem long enough to destroy them outright, if they hit any in the first place.

GTVA can do orbital bombardment, you'll see it in R2. They also bombed Luna City, which is already in R1.

The question wasn't wether the GTVA can do orbital bombardments, but wether they can do so 3 seconds after coming out of subspace. And with the Moon haveing much less gravity than Earth and Mars, you can jump much closer to it than you could to those planets.
From the moon attack we pretty much only know it happened. We don't know how long they needed from their jump-in point to the bombardment station. We don't even know if it was the capital ships that fired, or if they sent bombers out to do the bombing (considering Hecate and Deimos have no torpedo launchers, bombing runs with Cyclops and Helios fired by bombers are actually the most likely way in which the Luna bombing happened - unless there were no nuclear weapons involved and the "nuking" was only a figure of speech by Kassim).

[MatthTheGeek]

GTVA can do orbital bombardment, you'll see it in R2. They also bombed Luna City, which is already in R1.

The GTVA didn't do orbital bombardment on Luna. They used bombers to do the job "manually". The Meridian's fleet had no ship capable of long-range torpedo launching, and the Meridian was loading and unloading bombers at a fast rate when the task forced kicked its ass.

[Woolie Wool]

So...would it be a Pearl Harbour style thing if AoA didn't happen?
Would be rather funny to see GTVA ship blowing off whole Fed formations^^

Pearl Harbor wasn't an invasion, it was a desperation attack to try to discourage the US (whom they thought were cowardly, unwarlike mercantilists who weren't willing to fight. They were wrong) from interfering with their plans for the "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere", and possibly get them to lift sanctions. They miscalculated severely, however, both on the disposition of the American people and on the ability of America to replace the forces lost in Pearl Harbor (Japan thought it would take several years, it actually took around a year and a half even though most of our shipyards were building transport vessels to supply the UK and other remaining Allies).

The scenario would be more like Germany's Fall Rot operation against France, when they circumvented the Maginot Line by sending their forces through the Ardennes forest, which was believed to be impossible. By doing so they seized the advantages of initiative and surprised and with the overwhelming momentum of their blitzkrieg strategy they were able to dictate the nature of the battle much like the GTVA would. The French were unable to adapt or keep up with the German advance and could not prevent their critical assets from being quickly overrun. The  French had a strong military that was not as good as the Wehrmacht but pretty respectable. If Germany had botched the initial offensive and allowed the French to regroup and prepare adequate defenses, they would have had to commit to a much slower-paced slugging war that would have likely ended in defeat as conquering France would have been more trouble than it was worth.

AoA's events changed the circumstances of the conflict to one where the GTVA had insurmountable advantages that would have lead to almost certain victory, to stacking the deck strongly in the UEF's favor to the point where victory is increasingly unlikely even with the technological, resource, and numerical superiority of the GTVA and Steele's superior command of tactics compared to the UEF admirals.

[SpardaSon21]

I thought that thanks to the events in WiH the GTVA was almost certainly going to end up on top unless Magical Nagari Girl Laporte intervenes.  Jupiter and all of its infrastructure has fallen to the Tevs and the UEF subspace tracking net is in shambles.  UEF Third Fleet is almost completely gone, the Wargods got crushed at Neptune, Earth's orbital infrastructure got hammered in the Blitz, Luna got nuked by Severanti, the Imperieuse, Atreus, Hood, and Carthage are still in Sol and still able to perform offensive operations, and Steele has logistical and rear-lines support from the Vasudan Imperium.  Aside from Byrne's secret project, what offensive assets can the UEF deploy that will let them win this war?