Author Topic: Would Severanti's strategy eventually have worked?  (Read 21501 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: Would Severanti's strategy eventually have worked?
It's very hard to translate "somewhere in Earth proximity" and "somewhere in Mars proximity" to the 4-8km radius sphere you'd need to jump into. On a map of Earth and its surrounding space 4-8km would be less than a single pixel so you'd need very precise information. You can do that for orbital stations since you can calculate their position in advance but with ships you either have to spot them with another vessel or make them come to you by baiting them out.
[19:31] <MatthTheGeek> you all high up on your mointain looking down at everyone who doesn't beam everything on insane blindfolded

 

Offline -Norbert-

  • 211
Re: Would Severanti's strategy eventually have worked?
It might well be that Severanti wasn't supposed to lead the invasion for long, since originally Admiral Bei was the one sent into Sol first. If he hadn't defected, I strongly suspect that he would have had overall command of the theatre (if the UEF had somehow managed to fend of the surprise attack at any rate).

So Severanti was likely the replacement for the actual commander.

But what I wonder about most is what Steele was doing prior to him being sent to Sol. Why wasn't he the first choice to replace Bei after the defection, or the first choice for being sent in with the 14th BG to begin with? His dossier made it clear that he was highly regarded pretty much from the beginning of his military career and everyone know how ruthlessly effective he was. That initial surprise attack is something that would fit in perfectly with his usual style, so why was Bei chosen over him?

Did the GTVA think he was too reckless to unleash right away and they only turned to him when it became clear that the less risky approach didn't work (or at least didn't work fast enough to their liking)?

 

Offline The E

  • He's Ebeneezer Goode
  • 213
  • Nothing personal, just tech support.
    • Steam
    • Twitter
Re: Would Severanti's strategy eventually have worked?
It might well be that Severanti wasn't supposed to lead the invasion for long, since originally Admiral Bei was the one sent into Sol first. If he hadn't defected, I strongly suspect that he would have had overall command of the theatre (if the UEF had somehow managed to fend of the surprise attack at any rate).

So Severanti was likely the replacement for the actual commander.

Severanti was the second in command of the Sol Expeditionary Force (of which Bei and the 14th BG were the vanguard). The original invasion plan had the 14th establish space superiority very quickly, with the rest of the force coming in to reinforce and actually hold Sol.

Quote
But what I wonder about most is what Steele was doing prior to him being sent to Sol. Why wasn't he the first choice to replace Bei after the defection, or the first choice for being sent in with the 14th BG to begin with? His dossier made it clear that he was highly regarded pretty much from the beginning of his military career and everyone know how ruthlessly effective he was. That initial surprise attack is something that would fit in perfectly with his usual style, so why was Bei chosen over him?

Did the GTVA think he was too reckless to unleash right away and they only turned to him when it became clear that the less risky approach didn't work (or at least didn't work fast enough to their liking)?

There are factions within the Security Council. Steele, while undoubtedly effective as a military commander, has deficiencies when it comes to the political or diplomatic side of the business of fleet command. It was thought that, while he would undoubtedly strengthen the invasion force, his lack of diplomatic ability would make the business of holding Sol much more difficult than it needed to be. Severanti, as a member of the GTVA's "old guard", was chosen as a backup for Bei because there was no risk of him doing something that would make Bei's job harder.
If I'm just aching this can't go on
I came from chasing dreams to feel alone
There must be changes, miss to feel strong
I really need lifе to touch me
--Evergrey, Where August Mourns

 
Re: Would Severanti's strategy eventually have worked?
Is Severanti's strategy acting under the notion that there is no Shambala, no Morpheus contingency?

I can't imagine that Severanti is completely unaware of Shambala's existence; that could be pieced together from all sorts of intelligence readily available to a theater commander. I mean, even low level pilots in the UEF know that Byrne has a mystery project.

On the other hand, he may be vastly mis-estimating the scope/timeline of Shambala, and he is definitely incorrectly estimating the priorities encompassing MORPHEUS. My guess is that he doesn't know about MORPHEUS. Severanti appears to still be working under the impression that the end goal is the incorporation of Sol's resources into the GTVA, and as such the destruction of their infrastructure and population are unwanted and the removal of UEF leadership can be taken care of after the UEF surrender.

 

Offline Aesaar

  • 210
Re: Would Severanti's strategy eventually have worked?
On the other hand, he may be vastly mis-estimating the scope/timeline of Shambala, and he is definitely incorrectly estimating the priorities encompassing MORPHEUS. My guess is that he doesn't know about MORPHEUS.
As the theater commander, Severanti almost certainly knows about MORPHEUS because it's one of the big reasons why the GTVA went to war and is therefore information critical for him to do his job properly.  Just because we never get to see Severanti implement his plans for dealing with Shambhala doesn't mean he didn't have any.  GTVI and SOC were in Sol long before Steele was.

Quote
Severanti appears to still be working under the impression that the end goal is the incorporation of Sol's resources into the GTVA, and as such the destruction of their infrastructure and population are unwanted and the removal of UEF leadership can be taken care of after the UEF surrender.
He's probably under this impression because both of these things are true.  MORPHEUS precludes neither.
« Last Edit: April 15, 2017, 06:52:39 pm by Aesaar »

 

Offline CT27

  • 211
Re: Would Severanti's strategy eventually have worked?
To put this question another way:  if you were a UEF military commander and you heard Steele replaced Severanti, would you be happy or disappointed?

 

Offline Snarks

  • 27
Re: Would Severanti's strategy eventually have worked?
To put this question another way:  if you were a UEF military commander and you heard Steele replaced Severanti, would you be happy or disappointed?

Depends on the commander no? Calder certainly doesn't think so, but Byrne and possibly Netreba seem to think removing Severanti was a good thing. The difference being that Calder bore the brunt of the assault from Steele's blitz.

 
Re: Would Severanti's strategy eventually have worked?
Well, canonically... Telfer was quite excited in the debrief of Post Meridian, which gives us some insight into how Home Fleet viewed it. (I'm actually not sure why Telfer regarded the GTVA switching commanders such a victory - enemy disorganization? morale? But whatever.) At the same time, Calder warned that Steele was a bigger threat than Severanti, and in The Intervention Simms was pretty aware that giving Steele more latitude was a bad thing.

If I were a UEF commander, my response would probably likewise vary depending on where I was and how much I knew of Steele's style.



Aesaar: Are you speaking as an Official Blue Planet Team Member with Badges, or are you also speculating?

 
Re: Would Severanti's strategy eventually have worked?
I mean as a Very Definitely Not Team Member I can say that everything he said about MORPHEUS is exactly what I'd say based on released material.
The good Christian should beware of mathematicians, and all those who make empty prophecies. The danger already exists that the mathematicians have made a covenant with the devil to darken the spirit and to confine man in the bonds of Hell.

 

Offline AdmiralRalwood

  • 211
  • The Cthulhu programmer himself!
    • Skype
    • Steam
    • Twitter
Re: Would Severanti's strategy eventually have worked?
I mean as a Very Definitely Not Team Member I can say that everything he said about MORPHEUS is exactly what I'd say based on released material.
ditto
Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Codethulhu GitHub wgah'nagl fhtagn.

schrödinbug (noun) - a bug that manifests itself in running software after a programmer notices that the code should never have worked in the first place.

When you gaze long into BMPMAN, BMPMAN also gazes into you.

"I am one of the best FREDders on Earth" -General Battuta

<Aesaar> literary criticism is vladimir putin

<MageKing17> "There's probably a reason the code is the way it is" is a very dangerous line of thought. :P
<MageKing17> Because the "reason" often turns out to be "nobody noticed it was wrong".
(the very next day)
<MageKing17> this ****ing code did it to me again
<MageKing17> "That doesn't really make sense to me, but I'll assume it was being done for a reason."
<MageKing17> **** ME
<MageKing17> THE REASON IS PEOPLE ARE STUPID
<MageKing17> ESPECIALLY ME

<MageKing17> God damn, I do not understand how this is breaking.
<MageKing17> Everything points to "this should work fine", and yet it's clearly not working.
<MjnMixael> 2 hours later... "God damn, how did this ever work at all?!"
(...)
<MageKing17> so
<MageKing17> more than two hours
<MageKing17> but once again we have reached the inevitable conclusion
<MageKing17> How did this code ever work in the first place!?

<@The_E> Welcome to OpenGL, where standards compliance is optional, and error reporting inconsistent

<MageKing17> It was all working perfectly until I actually tried it on an actual mission.

<IronWorks> I am useful for FSO stuff again. This is a red-letter day!
* z64555 erases "Thursday" and rewrites it in red ink

<MageKing17> TIL the entire homing code is held up by shoestrings and duct tape, basically.

 

Offline The E

  • He's Ebeneezer Goode
  • 213
  • Nothing personal, just tech support.
    • Steam
    • Twitter
Re: Would Severanti's strategy eventually have worked?
Severanti was fully briefed on Morpheus.
If I'm just aching this can't go on
I came from chasing dreams to feel alone
There must be changes, miss to feel strong
I really need lifе to touch me
--Evergrey, Where August Mourns

 
Re: Would Severanti's strategy eventually have worked?
Not that it really matters what a team member says or thinks unless it's part of the canon. And canon material would suggest that anyone operating as commander in the sol Theatre would be fully briefed. Bei knew about it and so did Steele, there would be no reason for Severanti, Bei's 1st backup, to not be fully briefed about it.
[19:31] <MatthTheGeek> you all high up on your mointain looking down at everyone who doesn't beam everything on insane blindfolded

 
Re: Would Severanti's strategy eventually have worked?
You're right, I forgot that Bei, Sr. knew about it.

 

Offline CT27

  • 211
Re: Would Severanti's strategy eventually have worked?
How do you think Severanti views the state of the war now? 

Do you think he thinks he was wrong and Steele's strategy is better or is he thinking "If they would have listened to me, we'd be doing better now"?

 

Offline -Norbert-

  • 211
Re: Would Severanti's strategy eventually have worked?
My guess would be "Sure this is effective, but is this really worth the cost it's exacting? We were supposed to conquer that infrastructure and not destroy it."

 

Offline Snarks

  • 27
Re: Would Severanti's strategy eventually have worked?
My guess would be "Sure this is effective, but is this really worth the cost it's exacting? We were supposed to conquer that infrastructure and not destroy it."

This sounds about right, not to mention the amount of pilots KIA because of Steele's aggressiveness. Carthage's entire air wing was virtually wiped out.

 

Offline CT27

  • 211
Re: Would Severanti's strategy eventually have worked?
Comparing the two admirals to real life generals, would these comparisons be accurate?

Severanti-George McClellan
Steele-Ulysses Grant

 

Offline Snarks

  • 27
Re: Would Severanti's strategy eventually have worked?
Comparing the two admirals to real life generals, would these comparisons be accurate?

Severanti-George McClellan
Steele-Ulysses Grant

A better pairing IMO would be:

Severanti - Bernard Montgomery
Steele - George S. Patton

Montgomery was infamous for being overly cautious, with emphasize on minimizing damage and losses, famously only attacking when the odds were highly stacked in his favor. Operation Market Garden (Montgomery's plan after being urged to end the war by Christmas) was pretty much the equivalent to Severanti's follow-up after the Blitz. Patton and Steele both exhibit a very aggressive command style, and both began as a subordinate commander to the overall theater command.

Of course, Montgomery didn't get dismissed after Market Garden and Patton didn't get promoted, so you can only go so far with parallels.

 

Offline The E

  • He's Ebeneezer Goode
  • 213
  • Nothing personal, just tech support.
    • Steam
    • Twitter
Re: Would Severanti's strategy eventually have worked?
I think both parallels have merit. The dynamic in play between Severanti and Steele and their respective approaches to warfare are certainly something that repeats itself in large and small throughout history.
If I'm just aching this can't go on
I came from chasing dreams to feel alone
There must be changes, miss to feel strong
I really need lifе to touch me
--Evergrey, Where August Mourns

 

Offline Trivial Psychic

  • 212
  • Snoop Junkie
Re: Would Severanti's strategy eventually have worked?
I'm also guessing that Steele has more political sway than Patton did.  After the loss of the Carthage, he managed to get an escalation of the GTVA's war commitments, rather than dismissed from his position.
The Trivial Psychic Strikes Again!