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Off-Topic Discussion => General Discussion => Topic started by: Bobboau on November 20, 2004, 10:49:25 am

Title: fixing Iraq
Post by: Bobboau on November 20, 2004, 10:49:25 am: ok, so, it's broken, so lets try to think about how to fix it, rather than just stewing over how ****ed up it is.

so, first off lets try to get a solid idea of what a 'victory' would be. obviusly this would be followed by us leaveing, and that's ultimately what everyone wants. haveing Iraq a quasi-stable nation capable of running it's self, and people able to go out at night without haveing to fear for there lives (via semi-native threats or us) is also a requierment.

well a total withdrawal from us would lead to utter chaos, we'd probly see 20,000 dead in a mater of a day or two, anyone who was ever so slightly not anti-american would be rounded up and killed, they'd be dead. a band of 20-40 thousand would take over the nation and impose a theocracy. this would be the same as if our religious nuts came to power... more than they have. this would be a failure for both us and Iraq. but our presence is a destabliseing force, so what I beleve to be the only answer is we need to do a much better job of getting the Iraqis to defend themselves, as we slowly pull back, only staying around enough to act as a last option.
we need to plan on and make it aparent that we are going to be gone within a year or so.

stop the damned bombing already, if we know of a 'millitent safe house' we need to raid it on foot, actualy we need to get the Iraqi force to raid it, but at the moment that might be a bit much to ask. dropping a bomb powerfull enough to blow up everything in a 400 foot radius in a city were the average house is probly about 20 feet wide, even if it hits the right building to within half a centemeter your still going to cause a lot of unnesisary colateral damage.

the most important thing I think we need to do is make good examples, a lot of the country is peaceful and yet everywere has the same problems of poor public services, poor security, a non-exsistint economy. Cities like Baserah and (up untill recently) Mozul should have had us lavishing them with reconstruction, useing local workers and local companies (get halaburton the hell out) there are huge fortunes of funding that have been sitting and doing nothing, these need to go into the hands of Iraqi workers being paid to rebuild the country.

so, any better ideas.
Title: fixing Iraq
Post by: aldo_14 on November 20, 2004, 11:02:56 am: (this will probably mirror some of Bobs' stuff)

Firstly, there's no way you can withdraw troops with the current situation. Forget the bull**** causes of the war, at the moment the US/UK/etc troops are the only decently manned security force. My preference would be an increasing Arab presence (i.e. from the League of Arab nations), until some form of properly trained Iraqi force is available. If this requires big offers of aid (i.e. bribes) to said Arab countries by the US, so be it. UN peacekeepers could be handy, too.

Victory, I think, would be a properly democratic Iraq. To have this - and make it legitimate - the US will have to bite the bullet and ask troops from other Arab countries to assist, and crucially ask for UN inspectors to verify the legitimacy of elections. It will also require the toleration of an anti-US goverment should it be elected, and the withdrawal of all rebuilding contracts (but not finances), in order to allow the democratically elected government to properly allocate them.

In order to remove the insurgency, the US will have to open a political discussion with the key Islamic clerics who drive the religious side of it. It's absolutely essential - in order to remove any religious or jihad basis as well as ensure legit elections - to make sure that the clerics are allowed to be represented within elections.

In dealing with the foreign insurgents / die-hard Ba'athists / other groups determined to fight, the question has to be of minimal force. Like Bob said, no more bombings or excessive shelling. If this means higher losses, it'll have to be done. Civillian casualties do more to hurt the future prospects of Iraq than any military victory can help them.

And make sure all the infrastructure is rebuilt ASAP. Make loud, vocal promises that the people will be employed to rapidly rebuild power and water supplies, and make sure these promises are followed up.

I doubt a 'victory' in Iraq is now possible, however. Regardless of tactical changes, etc, there's not the goodwill required for a completely legitimate occupation & democracy.
Title: fixing Iraq
Post by: Annihilation on November 20, 2004, 11:09:56 am: With tens of thousands of women and children killed I don't think Iraqis are exactly happy and willing to help. Besides that the fact that this administration don't cares about fixing the mess and don't have the competence to do that makes me think that there will be no fixing. Iraq will be the next afeghanistan. Maybe alone without Saddam and US marines, iraqis will fix the country for themselves but civil war is more probable. What a mess...
Title: fixing Iraq
Post by: Singh on November 20, 2004, 11:10:16 am: You see, thats the ironic thing; nothing can save Iraq now.

1.) Any money that you send them is going to be intercepted one way or the other, and used back against you. It may not be much, but you don't need much to take down buildings.

2.) Due to the simple nature of human beings, you're going to see fighting break out immediately after troops pull out. In fact, judging from the scenario now - I'd say DONT pull them out. It may result in several hundred dead bodies, but compared to the several thousand that might occur should the Iraqis should they leave now. I hate suggesting this, but the US should send in everything - and i mean everything it has and prepare for a long, hard fight and secure at least 90% of iraq and destroy a majority of the jihadi forces within months. Cripple them, keep them down for the moment. All the while, prepare a government that is reliable and made of the people as opposed to the politicians. Once the coast seems to be clear, bring in a few thousand foriegn troops (preferably muslim) from elsewhere, hand over power and the weapons back to the government and THEN get the hell out of there. That way you leave a basically stable government in Iraq, pre-empt any attempts at overthrowing it (since the major threats are gone) and then have foriegn troops that are less likely to piss htem off and keep the peace more easily.

3.) After 2 is complete, pump cash into Iraq's industries and help them become first local powerhouses before cutting off help and letting them grow on their own. After that, disconnect from Iraq and leave them alone.

Sounds insane, but you got a better idea? :P
Title: fixing Iraq
Post by: Flipside on November 20, 2004, 11:38:04 am: What America needs right now is backup. The failure in Iraq is not so much based on the people of Iraq turning against them as the simple fact they can't be everywhere guarding everyone.

Most Iraqis don't know what to think anymore, they are beng fed propoganda from all sides. They just want to get on in peace.

But how do we create that peace when we feel like the very people we are trying to help hate us?

Maybe, rather than look for the source of the Insurgence, we should look for the source of this belief that every Arab in the world hates Christians and Americans in particular. Not to mention the assumption that every single Foreigner in Iraq has been secretely briefed on some plan to rape the country dry.

At the end of the day 'people' don't give a monkeys who's in charge as long as there is work, food, water and other basic amenities each day, you cannot eat the promise of a better future.

I actually disagree with the UN's continued reluctance to help out. Iraq is a disaster zone, it you want to thumb your nose at America rather than get stuck in and help out the Iraqis, then all you achieve is to harm the Iraqis, besides, it's a pretty infantile way to behave really, we are supposed to be 'mature' nations. So America gets itself in a mess, well, sometimes everyone needs a little help from those who claim to be friends.

As far the insurgents, well, possibly invading Saudi-Arabia would help reduce that, other than this, all you can do is so obviously be the 'good guys' that the insurgents automatically become the 'bad guys' from the Iraqi point of view.

It's not an easy solution, but it's not an easy problem.
Title: fixing Iraq
Post by: aldo_14 on November 20, 2004, 11:46:01 am: I always thought Afghanistan & later Iraq should be used as test cases for the 'West hates Islam' theory... do it right, and you can disprove that theory.

But, we did it wrong.
Title: fixing Iraq
Post by: Janos on November 20, 2004, 12:02:59 pm: Quote
Originally posted by Flipside
What America needs right now is backup. The failure in Iraq is not so much based on the people of Iraq turning against them as the simple fact they can't be everywhere guarding everyone.

[snip]

I actually disagree with the UN's continued reluctance to help out. Iraq is a disaster zone, it you want to thumb your nose at America rather than get stuck in and help out the Iraqis, then all you achieve is to harm the Iraqis, besides, it's a pretty infantile way to behave really, we are supposed to be 'mature' nations. So America gets itself in a mess, well, sometimes everyone needs a little help from those who claim to be friends.
[snip]

"You broke it, you own it."

1. Bush administration was really arrogant, infantile and stupid while pushing their case for war and managed to alienate pretty much everyone.
2. They bypassed the UN.
3. Most of the big contracts have been already grabbed. No big monetary gains there.
4. Iraq is a ****hole now.
5. The case for war was false.
6. People tend to not like Iraq war.
7. Iraq is a ****hole and trying to help it now will propably result in casualties. For no gain. HELL YEAH

Overall: Many important countries don't want to help you to get out of the ****hole you created, while you were doing your best at being dick-waving jingoist imbeciles about it. We didn't want it to happen and we are definately not going to sacrifice our own troops for no gain whatsoever.
Clear your own ****ing mess.

Spoiler:
SPOILER TAG!!! I might have exaggerated a bit.

edit: I think that I should maybe say once more that Iraq is, in fact, a ****hole.
Title: fixing Iraq
Post by: Corsair on November 20, 2004, 12:04:43 pm: victory = democracy
Title: fixing Iraq
Post by: Rictor on November 20, 2004, 12:38:45 pm: Alright, first of all I don't think you guys are giving the Iraqis enough credit. We, and I include myself here, all talk of the Iraqis as if though they were sheep, with a singular will and a simple mind. I don't think any of us can speak for the Iraqis, because we are simply not there. We're not living with the bombings, the occupation, and we're certaily not tuned in to Iraqi sentiment. That said, some assumptions and generalizations must be made if this discussion is to proceed, but try to keep in mind the inherent bias persent. First thing that we have to aknowledge is that an occup[ied people have every right to fight back, with whatever means are at their disposale. This has been the case everywhere, not just Iraq, so trying to find some unique reason for the insurgency is absurd, the occupation is the reason for the insurgency. Simple. We can try to mask it any way be like, hell, even the Iraqis can try to mask it, but the way I see it, the occupation breeds resistance.

So, basically, the occupation needs to end. Not right away mind you, though I don't agree with some of your apocolyptic predictions, but the important thing is that there needs to be a clear date, beyond a shadow of a doubt, by which that the US forces will withdraw from Iraq. Set and date and stick to it.

At the risk of speaking for a people I know very little about, I would say that most Iraqis are not really fundamentalists or overly zealous religious types. The reason that the insurgency is made up in part by jihadists (and before I forget, thanks aldo for recommeding Power fo Nightmares, I've watched 2 of 3 parts so far) is that these people are organized and well funded, which means that they are in a position to field a capable fighting force. I don't think it necessarily reflects the Iraqi people's views. Similarly to Hamas in the occupied territories, the fact that they are overtly religious is secondary to the fact that they are insurgents fighting an occupation. I doubt that Iraqis would elect a fundamentalist leadership without the fear and hatred of the Americans being used to coax them. Much (most?) of the rank-and-file insurgents are ordinary Iraqis, and I defy any of you to tell me that you wouldn't do the same under the circumstances.

So, set a clear date for the withdrawl of troops. But you still need elections, which means bringing in someone more credible than the Americans to supervise them. The UN might not cut it by itself, which means enlisting the aid of Arab groups to help monitor the ballots. Whoever is elected, the Americans have to leave. Nope, doesn't matter if they elect Osama bin freaking Laden, America has to stick by the withdrawl date. And this means the military bases, this means the "advisors" within Iraqi ministries, and this also means scaling back the American embassy to normal propartions. Having the world's largest embassy, staffed by 3000 people doesn't exactly instill a sense of trust.

Basically, the point is not to try to fight the wishes of the Iraqis. You can't win that way. I don't think that Iraqis are naturally aligned with some of the more fundamentalist elements within Iraq. There is an alliance because both are opposed to the ooccupation. Without that, I doubt that after 25 years of dictatorship they're just going to piss away their freedom.

--will post more later probably.--
Title: fixing Iraq
Post by: ChronoReverse on November 20, 2004, 12:39:37 pm: Quote
7. Iraq is a ****hole and trying to help it now will propably result in casualties. For no gain. HELL YEAH

Very good. Seriously the world doesn't need people like that.

As for the topic, I have to agree that it doesn't matter the reason for (and whether they were correct) the war at this point.

The troops cannot pull out since that will make the situation much worse than it already is.

What Flipside suggest is harsh, but it's most likely the only solution that will actually work and last. Unfortunately (fortunately?) I find that it's unlikely to happen.

Alternatively, Rictor's suggestion would be good IF there is some way to actually go about winning the Iraqis over. Frankly, simply setting a withdrawal date and elections isn't going to work at this point.

However, I do hope they try something like that.
Title: fixing Iraq
Post by: Janos on November 20, 2004, 12:44:06 pm: Quote
Originally posted by ChronoReverse

Very good. Seriously the world doesn't need people like that.

That kind of people - selfish, that is - run the world. It sounds a bit harsh, but after everything the US did to go to war - plus the unpopularity of the Iraq war, and the current situation there - people are do not want to send their troops to die for them or invest their more or less limited resources in fixing a problem they did not create.

In an ideal world, of course, everyone would help, but the sad fact is that we are not living in one.
Title: fixing Iraq
Post by: Bobboau on November 20, 2004, 01:05:57 pm: what better way to give us the finger than to prove we couldn't fix the problem but you could?
Title: fixing Iraq
Post by: Janos on November 20, 2004, 01:11:15 pm: Quote
Originally posted by Bobboau
what better way to give us the finger than to prove we couldn't fix the problem but you could?

Perhaps we can't. We - ok, I admit that I used the term "we" pretty stupidly, but let's stick with it then - on the other hand are pretty reluctant to find it out. See it below:
Success: 10% chance, VICTORY SHALL BE OURS!. Failure: 75% chance, oh noes body bags grrrrr, TO THE BARRICADES BROTHERS! Something inbetween: 15% chance, :confused:, drunk.
Title: fixing Iraq
Post by: Flipside on November 20, 2004, 01:13:23 pm: Maybe if we all got our national pride out of our arses and stopped pointing fingers at each other, something would actually get done?

If Europe is waiting for America to turn around and say 'Gee, we're so sorry, we'll listen to whatever you say from now on' it aint gonna happen, and just as well, we aren't the fount of all wisdom.

That said, if the first step of finding the Oklahoma bomber had been to cluster-bomb towns till they could be sure they got him, what would your opinion of the American government be right now?
Title: fixing Iraq
Post by: Janos on November 20, 2004, 01:51:04 pm: Quote
Originally posted by Flipside
Maybe if we all got our national pride out of our arses and stopped pointing fingers at each other, something would actually get done?
[/b]

:doubt:

Quote

If Europe is waiting for America to turn around and say 'Gee, we're so sorry, we'll listen to whatever you say from now on' it aint gonna happen, and just as well, we aren't the fount of all wisdom.
[/b]
"Europeans" are not going to trust USA for a while after the entire post-911 cluster****, whatever the case.

Quote

That said, if the first step of finding the Oklahoma bomber had been to cluster-bomb towns till they could be sure they got him, what would your opinin of the American government be right now? [/B]

LOLOLOLOLOL :lol:

And now I shall get drunk.
Title: fixing Iraq
Post by: Flipside on November 20, 2004, 01:57:46 pm: It IS a question of National pride, nothing else. Let's face it, when 'not helping America coz they shouted' is more important than the possibility of saving thousands of lives, something stinks ;)

And by the way, I'm English, and I think the Iraq war was a terrible idea, but I'm certainly not going to let more people die so that I can stick my tongue out at the US.
Title: fixing Iraq
Post by: Mongoose on November 20, 2004, 08:11:37 pm: Thank you, Flipside. If more nations shared your view, whether or not they agreed with the war in the first place, the "mess" in Iraq would be much less. Instead, we've got countries like France and Germany who *still* refuse to commit any military forces. Must be nice sitting on the sidelines and criticizing the game, I guess. :rolleyes:
Title: fixing Iraq
Post by: Rictor on November 20, 2004, 08:29:50 pm: They refuse to commit militry forces because they realize the very, very obvious. And that is that America's job is not to bring freedom and self-determination to Iraq, but to occupy it.

Its very simple. If I don't agree with what you are doing, I'm not going to help you. What this whole thread is about is the theoretical "if it was America's mission to bring freedom and peace to the poor Iraqis" scenario. Thats the reason that none of what is talked about here will be implemented, because withdrawing troops is a very ineffecitve way to occupy a country. Hence, troops will not be withdrawn any time soon. Hence, "Old Europe" does not want to help with the repression of an entire nation.

Notice however, that they are taking actions to help the Iraqis themselves, such as erasing Iraq's national debt and so forth.
Title: fixing Iraq
Post by: Flipside on November 20, 2004, 08:33:12 pm: Well, Military forces may not be the only help that these countries can give. Iraq needs shelter, food, clothing, basic neccesities. Whilst there are people suffering without these, America will never be able to even start to repair the damage that they, admittedly, started, but that the Insurgents are consolidating upon.

Maybe if the UN took on the humanitarian role of providing basic needs to the Iraqi people, not only would it free up American troops to be a little more selective, no offence intended, but with everyone watching everyone else, hopefully greed or trigger happiness can be reduced to a minimum :)

The really really hard part is to stop shooting people. Even if they are shooting at you. As long as the American military continues to attack the Insurgents through the Iraqi people instead of via them, theres never going to be a trust built. That was why I made my comment about the Oklahoma bomber, do it abroad as you would at home, and you'll get similar results ;)

Edit : The fact is, I'm working on an 'Ideal world' scenario here, one-upmanship and powerplays mean these things would never come to pass, but then, that's the whole problem isn't it, us and them :(
Title: fixing Iraq
Post by: .::Tin Can::. on November 20, 2004, 08:33:33 pm: I got a better idea...

Let's go to war with Canada!
Title: fixing Iraq
Post by: Flipside on November 20, 2004, 09:03:35 pm: hehehe

Tell you what, the Americans can pretend Europe is paying them back for turning up in 1942
Europe can pretend they are making up for America not turning up in 1939.
And then we can, as Kalfireth would put it, go back to being nasty to each other in our own forums ;)
Title: fixing Iraq
Post by: .::Tin Can::. on November 20, 2004, 09:07:18 pm: Or we could invade CANADA!
Title: fixing Iraq
Post by: Flipside on November 20, 2004, 09:08:46 pm: But then we'd have to deal with that bear with laser beam eyes and his horde of killer monkeys...... :nervous:
Title: fixing Iraq
Post by: .::Tin Can::. on November 20, 2004, 09:15:57 pm: True... even a massive US armada is no match for laser beam bears...
Title: fixing Iraq
Post by: Gank on November 21, 2004, 11:18:16 am: Its long gone past the stage where it could be salvaged Bobboau.
Title: fixing Iraq
Post by: Flipside on November 21, 2004, 11:27:16 am: At least by the Western powers, and the West doesn't trust the East enough to let them do it.
Title: fixing Iraq
Post by: Gank on November 21, 2004, 12:00:14 pm: Eh, eastern powers havent exactly got a great reputation as far as occupations go, not that they'd want to go in there anyways.

The main thing thats needed right now in Iraq is troops, bout 3 or 4 times what in there now. Only way they'll get that is the draft and that brings its own problems.
Title: fixing Iraq
Post by: Flipside on November 21, 2004, 12:11:01 pm: Heh, didn't say that mistrust was unjustified ;)

Yes, alas, now that it's begun that's the only course is to push on to the bitter end. It's looking pretty grim no matter what happens :(