Hard Light Productions Forums
Off-Topic Discussion => General Discussion => Topic started by: Tiara on January 02, 2005, 06:12:58 pm
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I just saw a very disturbing documentary about a mega-tsunami that will destroy everything on the US eastern seaboard from New york all the way down to Miami.
According to scientists, when the island of LaPalma (near the African coast) collapses, it will form a mega-tsunami that can be as big as 650 meters (!!!) and over hundreds of kilometers long (!!!). It would wipe out anything within 20 kilometers of the eastern coast.
Brace yourselves, it gets worse.
The vulcano on LaPalma, which will cause the landslide, is predicted to erupt within the next century. It could happen tommorrow or in 50 to 100 years. Or it could take more then that, but they say it will happen.
These mega tsunamis have occured throughout the history of the world. The last major one was ~4000 years ago off the coast of Australia. But they also occured in a bay in Alaska only 50 years ago.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/2000/mega_tsunami.shtml
What will happen when the volcano on La Palma collapses? Scientists predict that it will generate a wave that will be almost inconceivably destructive, far bigger than anything ever witnessed in modern times. It will surge across the entire Atlantic in a matter of hours, engulfing the whole US east coast, sweeping away everything in its path up to 20km inland. Boston would be hit first, followed by New York, then all the way down the coast to Miami and the Caribbean.
http://www.benfieldhrc.org/CentreNews/press%20releases/tsunami.htm
'Eruptions of Cumbre Vieja occur at intervals of decades to a century or so and there may be a number of eruptions before its collapse. Although the year to year probability of a collapse is therefore low, the resulting tsunami would be a major disaster with indirect effects around the world. Cumbre Vieja needs to monitored closely for any signs of impending volcanic activity and for the deformation that would precede collapse.'
This documentary seriously scared me :shaking: It's not some fairy tale or sci-fi movie like Deep impact. No, it's something based on cold, hard scientific facts.
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Woohoo! More bonage for the world!
And I feel great to be living on a low-lying island in the carribbean!
Anyway, are they monitoring the volcano? Any activity lately?
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a) it would also wipe out western europe (EDIT: I believe; it's alluded to in the 2nd link, but they don't state the exact threat there)
b) there's a debate whether it can happen in this way; i.e. if the entire landslide would impact in one single massive event, or break up and make numerous smaller waves (chucking a brick into a bath vs breaking up a brick then chucking it)
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Originally posted by Unknown Target
Anyway, are they monitoring the volcano? Any activity lately?
It's always active, but no major eruptions seem to be predicted for the next few years at least. (They can only predict that much)
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Being 30 Miles north of Boston, I think i'll go buy a life jacket now...
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Originally posted by aldo_14
a) it would also wipe out western europe
But to a FAR lesser extend. And hardly wipe out. The waves go west and only a small fraction of the force is directed towards Europe. Though Brittain would be hit hardest of Europe.
b) there's a debate whether it can happen in this way; i.e. if the entire landslide would impact in one single massive event, or break up and make numerous smaller waves (chucking a brick into a bath vs breaking up a brick then chucking it)
The water that has been building up inside the vulcano has reached such a volume that one big landslide is the most likely outcome of a major eruption.
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Well...any plans on how to stop it?
Drill holes in it to relieve the pressure, then remove the cap? (There's a big rock plugging it, right?)
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Originally posted by Unknown Target
Well...any plans on how to stop it?
Drill holes in it to relieve the pressure, then remove the cap? (There's a big rock plugging it, right?)
Eh, drilling into an active vulcano? That and the already unstable rock formation would even make the collapse MORE likely.
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Dril + Unstable = BAD
Slight correction... I'm off to build an Ark :p ...
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Originally posted by Tiara
But to a FAR lesser extend. And hardly wipe out. The waves go west and only a small fraction of the force is directed towards Europe. Though Brittain would be hit hardest of Europe.
The water that has been building up inside the vulcano has reached such a volume that one big landslide is the most likely outcome of a major eruption.
1) edited above; I remeber the BBc documentary alluding to it destroying most of Britain in particular
2) http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3963563.stm
As I said, there's a debate.
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that's scary
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So what the hell are we gonna do?
Just wait until it becomes a problem?
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Hm... I recall a really old childrens movie involving a Train, a lighthouse, a large amount of water, some cute bears, a whole lot of sponges, a boulder, a mountain, and a bunch of evil trains as well... (It was a weird movie...)
So... I have no clue...
OT: what ever happened to Mt St. Hellans? Did it erupt again?
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How would Britain get hit hardest in europe if it has 3 whole countries in between it and La Palma? :confused:
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Originally posted by aldo_14
2) http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3963563.stm
As I said, there's a debate.
Ok, assume it breaks into 10 pieces, then you have 10 WAVES OF 52 METERS!
thats roughly 4 and a half times as high as the tsunami in asia AND that ten times in a row. Sorry, I really don't see that as a 'better' option. It would still destroy all coast cities.
hell, if it breaks into 20 pieces you'd still have a Tsunami twice as high as the highest normal tsunami.
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Originally posted by Unknown Target
So what the hell are we gonna do?
Just wait until it becomes a problem?
It would cost hundreds of millions of dollars to prepare for it even slightly.
It costs money -> government will ignore it if it isn't needed within the term of the current president.
:ick:
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Originally posted by Tiara
Ok, assume it breaks into 10 pieces, then you have 10 WAVES OF 52 METERS!
thats roughly 4 and a half times as high as the tsunami in asia AND that ten times in a row. Sorry, I really don't see that as a 'better' option. It would still destroy all coast cities.
hell, if it breaks into 20 pieces you'd still have a Tsunami twice as high as the highest normal tsunami.
I believe there's an exponential increase in effect as mass (and force due to gravity * mass) increases. So it wouldn't be a straight division of height........plus those waves would have less initial speed & height and would presumably lose their power more rapidly than the larger wave....
put it this way, there wouldn't be a bunch of marine geologists saying "it's not as likely as was made out" and saying the threat is lower if the scenario was worse, would there?
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Actually, Tiara, I'm pretty sure some of the waves would cancel each other out, so you'd have less and smaller waves.
Still though, it'd be a lot of devastation.
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I don't understand how Britain would be affected in any signifcant fashion. The majority of the wave would be headed across the Atlantic...heading north, passing through Spain, and then hitting England seems difficult to me.
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W00t! for living 30 miles from Manhattan! And one block from the Hudson River! :blah:
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it's all predictions, nothing more. i wouldn't get too worried.
still, it's pretty disturbing to think about.
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I saw a documentory about this about 5 years ago, but I forget which island it was talking about.
With this particular island, they found that there were lots of vertical layers of porous and igneous rock and the water pressure building up in the porous rock could trigger a slide.
They were supposed to drill some holes into that part to relieve the pressure but I never heard anything else about that.
The island was volcanic, but the volcano itself it was supposed to be dormant.
The thing about stuff like this, is that nobody gives a crap until it's too late. The asian tsunami was a normal one, albeit caused by a massive earthquake.
Earthquake-generated tsunami's are relatively limited in their maximum size, but these so-called mega-tsunami' are a **** lot more scary - If you consider the damage and loss of life caused by this recent one, and then compare it to a worst-case 'mega-tsunami', well... it don't bear thinking about...
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This was posted a few days ago in the asian tsunami thread.
I live far enough inland not to have to worry about it.
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Out of interest - did knowledge of this threat become known just after the Asian disaster - or has it been known for some time and is only being talked about now because it's happened to someone other than America?
It just seems a bit... stupid to worry about it now. I mean, the next time a volcano erupts - are we going to hear about how half a dozen countries could be blown to dust if certain volcanos erupted?
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Some time, like, in 2000 (5 years ago now!)
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T probably just noticed it while reading about Tsunamis because of the Asian diaster -- my guess.
And err, how exactly does an island "colapsing" create a tidal wave that distructive over that large a coastline? Also, why just the U.S. What about Africa and Spain?
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Ahh, I see. So - now that its happened for real - people are finally taking notice of just how screwed they are if things went tits up.
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Hehe, tits. ;7
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Shuddup you :p
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Originally posted by Unknown Target
Well...any plans on how to stop it?
Drill holes in it to relieve the pressure, then remove the cap?
Release of pressure in a volcanic system is called an erruption ;). In this case, what you've basically got is this;
(http://nodewar.penguinbomb.com/saab/images/Volcano!.jpg)
The whole system is being heated from underneath, so the trapped water expands. As one layer breaks off and slides in to the sea, the pressure is further released and more rock is broken off - and you got yourself a nice chain reaction. Bye bye eastern sea board
[EDIT]I've known about this for years. That's why my sense of superiority towards merkins is justified - I know they'll all be dead soon :nod:
__________________
Diamond Geezer studied geology for four years and knows what he's going on about
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Originally posted by Unknown Target
Woohoo! More bonage for the world!
And I feel great to be living on a low-lying island in the carribbean!
Anyway, are they monitoring the volcano? Any activity lately?
that blows dude i live in NYC.
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Originally posted by Knight Templar
T probably just noticed it while reading about Tsunamis because of the Asian diaster -- my guess.
And err, how exactly does an island "colapsing" create a tidal wave that distructive over that large a coastline? Also, why just the U.S. What about Africa and Spain?
The whole island is one big volcano (it's one of the Canaries, off western Africa). There's a big crack down the side of the volcano, and the next big eruption will cause the whole western side of the island to slide into the sea. That's 500 billion tonnes of rock - it'll make a BIG splash, and the ripple will travel across the Atlantic. When it hits shallow water (off the US coast) it'll break as a very, very big wave. Then it's bye bye to all the cities along the eastern seaboard.
There was an episode of Horizon about this a few years back. Also one about the Yellowstone mega-volcano that's going to blow sky-high and cause a mass extinction...
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I'd be protected by the aging mountain range between me and the coast. Of course, there are other fun natural disasters waiting to happen, from volcanoes in Washington, earthquakes in the Great Plains, and Yellowstone blowing it's top....
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You realise that NY will take the global economy down with it, right?
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Diamond Geezer is always right
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But that's nothing. US people have much worse than that hanging over their heads :p
Google "Yellow Stone super volcano", and fear :p
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Of course. I was referring to the immediate effect, as in I wouldn't die, as opposed to the long term effect of global depression.
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I think the current administration is too worried about terrorists and Iraq to spend time on something that's not a national issue - like the East Coast being wiped out.
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England and Ireland would be hit by a 10 meter or less wave which although relatively substantial would not be the devastation wrecked by a 20-60 meter wave all across the east coast of North America.
Plus I'd give Ireland a good chance of getting away fairly decently in some areas. I've seen the maps and the terrain...some of that stuff is solid rock that rises from the sea...not a low lying beach with no elevation. It'll be a heck of a crash...
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Im glad I live in Texas.
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If the Carribean gets hit, so will Texas.
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Lucky for them, though, most of it would be blocked by the larger islands and Florida.
Still, makes you wonder: if any of this happened (like this or the Yellowstone volcano as quoted by Nico), it would change the entire world...in a lot of ways, both bad and good.
Bad:
Cools the climate
Kills thousands
Destroys ecosystems
Possibly destroys the economies of the world
Good:
Cools the world, and provides a layer of protection against solar rays to hopefully make up for our ozone layer (at least that's what I'm gathering).
Hopefully stop all these ridiculus wars.
Whoo...we're still boned though.
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Let me re-state that for ya ;).
Bad for us:
Cools the climate
Kills thousands
Possibly destroys the economies of the world
Good for earth:
Cools the climate
Kills thousands
Possibly destroys the economies of the world
I, personally am for global genocide over global catastrophe.
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I live well north of New York. I wonder if that means we'll only be partially raped.
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well I've got a bout a thousand miles of buffer between me and the coast so I'm ok.
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For the first time in my life I'm glad I live on the west coast.
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To be honest, the Japanese have been working on ways to combat this for years, they specifically dig trenches for the lava to follow which reduces heat erosion, and with one volcano they actually sealed up the crack in the side of the volcano with high density concrete so that the lava would be released from the top rather than the side.
Also, if La Palma collapses, it depends heavily on the depth of the water it collapses into, if it falls into 2 feet of water over a sandbank, you're just going to get a big pile of rubble.
Look at it this way, when Krakatoa exploded, it should have had much the same effect, but theres a sandbank about two miles off the coast which dulled the effects (the tidal wave only went twice round the globe, but was only about 1/10 the size it would have been if not for that sandbank).
So obviously reason for concern, but this, I feel, is a worst-case scenario.
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Originally posted by Flipside
To be honest, the Japanese have been working on ways to combat this for years, they specifically dig trenches for the lava to follow which reduces heat erosion, and with one volcano they actually sealed up the crack in the side of the volcano with high density concrete so that the lava would be released from the top rather than the side.
Eh, that doesn't matter. The lava will still heat up the water and make it expand. And once the water expands to such a degree, it will split apart the island.
Also, if La Palma collapses, it depends heavily on the depth of the water it collapses into, if it falls into 2 feet of water over a sandbank, you're just going to get a big pile of rubble.
Eh, no. In Lituya bay in Alaska, where this already happened, the lake was only a few meters deep on the shore. Yet it created a mega-tsunami.
And that was in a very small BAY. Not even an ocean.
Look at it this way, when Krakatoa exploded, it should have had much the same effect, but theres a sandbank about two miles off the coast which dulled the effects (the tidal wave only went twice round the globe, but was only about 1/10 the size it would have been if not for that sandbank).
It doesn't work that way. A landslide Tsunami doesn't work like an Earthquake Tsunami. A normal Tsunami dulls out and can break. But mega-tsunamis don't since ALL the water is moved. From the bottom of the ocean to the surface.
The only thing that will happen if it hits a sandbank is that the front will rise up (it gets higher) but it will remain at the same speeds. That's why such a tsunami can wipe out anything withing 20 kilometers of the coast instead of just the actual coast line.
So obviously reason for concern, but this, I feel, is a worst-case scenario.
Nope. In the documentary I saw they explained precisely how it would happen. Hell, they even showed experiments they've been conducting for years now.
They also said it was a worst-case-scenario, but also the most likely scenario since the instbility of the island is quite bad.
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In Lituya bay, it created a localised Tsunami, not a globe spanning one. As far as the displacement of water is concerned, once again, this is based on theories and assumptions, I'm not saying it won't happen, I'm saying that to say it certainly will is not very scientific. We are back to making theories into fact again. Not good.
What concerns me is, in what way is predictions like this any different to 'The end of the world is Nigh convert or burn in hell!!1!'. It's scaremongering as much as anything else.
Yes, a Tsunami such as this is a threat, I'm not saying it's not, but to say we know the exact behaviour of tectonics, lava, water pressure, all combined together when we can't even tell with more than very poor accuracy how any volcano or tectonic activity is really going to occur or what effect it will have is somewhat jumping the gun.
I'm not saying ignore it, I'm saying do something about it, but I get worried when science starts making biblical irreversible facts and throws them at people who are often not aware enough of the variables involved to realise that, like all of science, it's a theory.
Our own ignorance and lack of knowledge caught us unaware with this Tsunami, let's not let Tsunami become yet another 'Huge Asteroid in Space!!!' ;)
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Actually, there is one even worst hipotetical disaster, just waiting to happen, in the western seaboard. The State of California is sitting on a massive fault, the San Andreas fault, that could break if a big enough quake hits the area. Now imagine the whole state diving into the Pacific, and you get a wave 1000 times bigger than anything La Palma can create...
All it takes is a big enough quake, in the right spot. And we all know how common quakes are in that area, precisely because of the fault.
How´s that for alarmist?
Still, the chances of either of those events happening as doomsayers predict, is smaller than the chance we get hit by a space rock. Currently Mankind has plotted and mapped about 2% of the sky, meaning there are virtually millions of rocks out there, just waiting for Earth to get in the way...
But even if it happens, we won´t know it untill it´s over anyway, so why bother? The chances of a global killer are still way smaller than the chances that some nutt pushes the proverbial button, deep in some underground bunker. And guess what? We have a complete nutter in the White House now, so...
Feeling happier now, folks?
:lol:
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Originally posted by Kalfireth
Out of interest - did knowledge of this threat become known just after the Asian disaster - or has it been known for some time and is only being talked about now because it's happened to someone other than America?
It's a few years old. People are hearing about it now cause everyone is thinking "Could that happen to us?"
Originally posted by Kalfireth
It just seems a bit... stupid to worry about it now. I mean, the next time a volcano erupts - are we going to hear about how half a dozen countries could be blown to dust if certain volcanos erupted?
I'm not going to get worried about it much but if I hear about an eruption in La Palma I'm certainly going to tell my friends in NY and Philly to consider moving inland.
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Originally posted by karajorma
I'm not going to get worried about it much but if I hear about an eruption in La Palma I'm certainly going to tell my friends in NY and Philly to consider moving inland.
The tidal wave would cross the atlantic in less then 8 hours :p They'd better move fast :blah:
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They wouldn't really be able to get out. If this sort of thing happened, people would panic. If they paniced, the roads would be a giant traffic jam, and no one would get out.
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Isn't that the normal phycological/traffic status of New York anyway?
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Oh, you've heard about this mega-tsunami years ago, and I anin't pulling the 'well I am much smarter than you' thing. [POLITICS]A thing you need to ask yourself, what has the US government done about this?[/POLITICS]
Oh and for those that feel this is scare mongering, how about: A massivly well organised terrorist group has billions os sleeper cells, ready to buthcer all your family at a moments notice. Just vote for us and we can make you safe.
Nuts, that should have been in politics too.
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Originally posted by Fergus
[POLITICS]A thing you need to ask yourself, what has the US government done about this?[/POLITICS]
Yeah, they should have have moved everybody from coasts and built 5km deep, 100 meters tall walls on the shores. Or poured lots of ice in the volcano, to, you know, cool it down.
:doubt:
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Well, I'm not a geologist or anything, so I've no idea how to deal with it, I suppose the best way is to try and find some way to make a controlled release of the pressure, but unless someone here is some kind of high-level engineer/geologist anything said here would be theory only.
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Originally posted by Fergus
Oh, you've heard about this mega-tsunami years ago, and I anin't pulling the 'well I am much smarter than you' thing. [POLITICS]A thing you need to ask yourself, what has the US government done about this?[/POLITICS]
Oh and for those that feel this is scare mongering, how about: A massivly well organised terrorist group has billions os sleeper cells, ready to buthcer all your family at a moments notice. Just vote for us and we can make you safe.
Nuts, that should have been in politics too.
:wtf:
Some of the dumber politics posts just amuse me so.
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West coast warning system and public information could help.... they have the east coasts warning system already, but I'n not sure if they bother to give out people information on how to react in an emergency or hold drills.
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Switzerland will save you, mortal sinners.
Seriously tough, no need to panic before it's time :)
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But when it's time, it's too late to panic :D
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Better start panicing now.
omigod, omigod, omigod! Its coming!
AAAAAAAAARGHH!
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Originally posted by Grey Wolf 2009
They wouldn't really be able to get out. If this sort of thing happened, people would panic. If they paniced, the roads would be a giant traffic jam, and no one would get out.
Just like in ID4 or Deep Impact, right?
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Originally posted by Flipside
...phycological/traffic status...
:lol: