Hard Light Productions Forums

Off-Topic Discussion => General Discussion => Topic started by: Gank on January 27, 2005, 01:49:52 pm

Title: More on Iran
Post by: Gank on January 27, 2005, 01:49:52 pm
http://www.globalsecurity.org/org/news/2005/050126-iran-game.htm

Some more from Hersch too:
http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=05/01/26/1450204
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Unknown Target on January 27, 2005, 01:53:19 pm
Fart?
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Zarax on January 27, 2005, 02:00:51 pm
Useless sabre rattling, and they know it.
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Gank on January 27, 2005, 02:50:05 pm
No, its not, if you read through it again they'res named sources like "former CIA counterterrorism chief, Vince Cannistraro" confirming that the US is actually running ops inside Iran.
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Black Wolf on January 27, 2005, 02:51:12 pm
The Hersch one is a good read - long, but worth it.
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Swamp_Thing on January 27, 2005, 03:22:22 pm
Quote
Originally posted by Gank
No, its not, if you read through it again they'res named sources like "former CIA counterterrorism chief, Vince Cannistraro" confirming that the US is actually running ops inside Iran.


So? It´s nothing new. Tony Blair has already come forward and publicly reafirming his support for any US intervention in Iran.
The only thing preventing Bush from going after Iran today is the fact that Iraq is a sinkhole of manpower. As soon as they train a couple hundred iraqi "pseudo-soldiers", they will pull out of Iraq. Right into Iran, that is.


So, if you are a US soldier and you are currently eating dust in Iraq, don´t expect to see home soon. Your village idiot of a president is already cooking up new and improved ways for you to die 10.000 miles from home.
And if you are ripe and in the right age group, you better run for Canada, because there is an army letter with your name on it, coming to claim your arse for the "fight on terror". The draft is just months away.
:ha:
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Moonsword on January 27, 2005, 03:52:18 pm
I take it you're Canadian, then?

And Swamp_Thing, they don't want me.  Trust me on this one.  I'd fail the health test in at least one way and the psych test probably isn't going their way either...
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Grey Wolf on January 27, 2005, 04:42:10 pm
After doing a bit of research, it seems that college deferments are quite a bit less useful now than before, as they only last until the end of the semester.
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Gank on January 27, 2005, 04:54:32 pm
I wouldnt get me knickers in a twist just yet, they're talking about airstrikes, not an invasion. They have to find something worthwhile to bomb first too, though they'll probably get fed up after a while and hit something out of fustration.
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Moonsword on January 27, 2005, 04:58:06 pm
Like Iran?  Or maybe North Korea?
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Gank on January 27, 2005, 05:09:30 pm
I meant find something worthwhile to bomb IN Iran.
Title: More on Iran
Post by: vyper on January 27, 2005, 05:34:19 pm
Blair has said he supports action but never endorsed invasion, certainly made clear we aren't gonna be involved  this time.
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Bobboau on January 27, 2005, 05:47:11 pm
did that stop us in Iraq or afghanistan?
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Rictor on January 27, 2005, 05:50:24 pm
Different circumstance. In Afghanistan, most of the West was on your side, both politically and militarilly. In Iraq, at least the American population strongly supported the war, and at least you had 1 major ally that is a world power. For Iran, there would be little domestic support, and absolutely no foreign support, neither political nor military.
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Zarax on January 27, 2005, 05:51:34 pm
Domestic support seems less of an issue if some other communities can give a measure of it...
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Gank on January 27, 2005, 05:54:00 pm
Supporting action mighn't be bright with all those british troops in and around Basra.
Title: More on Iran
Post by: IceFire on January 27, 2005, 06:30:53 pm
I figure if they went after Iran it'd be a more 1991 Gulf War style thing with lots of bombing and taking out of military targets (since Iran does have a functioning army to fight).  Probably they'd go after those nuclear sites.  But I remain hopeful...could be just sabre rattling....the diplomatic process goes on.
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Swamp_Thing on January 27, 2005, 11:02:12 pm
Sabre rattling, uh? Everybody thought that too, when Bush started making threats at Saddam. And now look at it...
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Zarax on January 28, 2005, 02:43:20 am
With a small difference: He had (barely) the manpower to back ot up.
Title: More on Iran
Post by: NGTM-1R on January 28, 2005, 03:01:37 am
Let the Israelis handle it. They've dealt with the atomic-bomb programs of their neighbors before.
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Splinter on January 28, 2005, 03:46:56 am
Quote
Originally posted by ngtm1r
Let the Israelis handle it. They've dealt with the atomic-bomb programs of their neighbors before.


Unfortunatly the Iranians realise this as well and have dispersed thier nuclear sites across the country instead of one active plant... :doubt:
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Bobboau on January 28, 2005, 05:19:24 am
I was refering to the "we'll have to find something worht bombing first"

I'd take anything Bush says seriosly, realy I didn't think he'd be stupid enough to bomb a country (Iraq) for something they didn't actualy do (makeing weapons of mass distraction, er distruction) and look were that ended up. he went from a 90% aproval rateing to like 50.001%, only our opposition party's sheer and awsome incompetence allowed him to retain power.
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Clave on January 28, 2005, 10:39:01 am
Yes, let's bomb Iran before they do something dramatic like engrave another vase!

(http://www.salamiran.org/IranInfo/Culture/Arts/engraving/engrav5_large.jpg)
Title: More on Iran
Post by: vyper on January 28, 2005, 10:51:17 am
My God that's hideous! BEGIN THE ASSAULT! :p
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Clave on January 28, 2005, 11:19:15 am
:lol:

I found some Iranian art while looking for something else - the paintings can go straight in the bin, but the stuff they do engraving metal is just awesome....
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Gank on January 28, 2005, 11:50:38 am
Quote
Originally posted by ngtm1r
Let the Israelis handle it. They've dealt with the atomic-bomb programs of their neighbors before.


Actually the raid on Iraq didnt do anything to stop the Iraqi nuclear weapons program, in fact according to Israeli, US and IEIA (sp) reports it accelerated. Apparently the Iraqis were cunning enough to keep the weapons part of the program seperate from the reactor everybody knew they had. Who'd have thought.

Quote
Originally posted by Zarax
With a small difference: He had (barely) the manpower to back ot up.


How many times does it have to be said, they're planning airstrikes not an invasion.
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Zarax on January 28, 2005, 11:59:14 am
Airstrikes alone doesn't mean jack, doing anything without ground support means the iranian army going to make an unfriendly visit to the american troops stationed in iraq or afghanistan.
Title: More on Iran
Post by: NGTM-1R on January 28, 2005, 03:51:24 pm
Quote
Originally posted by Zarax
Airstrikes alone doesn't mean jack, doing anything without ground support means the iranian army going to make an unfriendly visit to the american troops stationed in iraq or afghanistan.


And get themselves slaughtered. If they want to throw away their troops, bring it on.
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Zarax on January 28, 2005, 03:56:49 pm
You are overoptimistic my friend, overstretched as they are US troops right now are much easier pickings than usual.
Plus they don't have to mount a full scale offensive, just send a few platoons here and there so that air superiority won't  make too much trouble...
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Clave on January 28, 2005, 04:38:18 pm
I think they proved in the Iran/Iraq war that they are prepared to spend troops recklessly.  Many countries in that region have fanatical and unpredictable forces - whatever action is taken will result in more mess and chaos....
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Rictor on January 28, 2005, 04:47:36 pm
But even airstrikes would clearly be considred by Iran, and probably most of the world, as a declaration of war. The US can't handle a ground-war with Iran, regardless of whether the US invades Iran or if Iran decides to protect itself and goes after the US forces conveniently stations across the border. You don't believe that Iran is just going to sit there and take it, do you? In the case of bombing, they would have world opinion squarely on their side (or rather not on their side, but opposed to their enemy which is pretty much the same thing), not to mention Russia and China having a significant stake in contidued stability in Iran, as well as their own AA defences which are probably significant (dunno about that, pulling stuff out of my ass, but its not unlikely.)
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Bobboau on January 28, 2005, 10:37:55 pm
were overextended to the point that we can't open a new front, I think the biggest impedement to us bombing Iran is not military.
Title: More on Iran
Post by: .::Tin Can::. on January 28, 2005, 11:18:31 pm
Global Security.org, for all your In-Depth news coverage...
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Flipside on January 28, 2005, 11:24:56 pm
And we'll have fun fun fun till Daddy takes the H-Bomb away.....

:nervous:
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Gank on January 29, 2005, 07:57:01 am
Iran wont attack the US overtly, they'll just send revolutionary guards into Iraq disguised as insurgents. US would slaughter an Iranian ground attack.
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Rictor on January 29, 2005, 10:16:05 am
If you think that the US doesn't have sufficient manpower to stage a ground invasion of Iran, why do you think they would have sufficient manpower to destroy an Iranian invasion? In both cases, the players and armies are more or less the same.

Though I think the prospect of Iran attacking is even more far-fetched than the US invading Iran.
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Gank on January 29, 2005, 12:34:30 pm
Because machine gunning down people running at you and running into someone elses machineguns are two entirely different things. Over simplified but thats the basic difference between attacking and defending.
Title: More on Iran
Post by: vyper on January 29, 2005, 12:36:01 pm
https://freeinternetpress.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=2841
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Zarax on January 29, 2005, 12:39:00 pm
404
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Janos on January 29, 2005, 01:13:50 pm
Quote
Originally posted by Rictor
If you think that the US doesn't have sufficient manpower to stage a ground invasion of Iran, why do you think they would have sufficient manpower to destroy an Iranian invasion? In both cases, the players and armies are more or less the same.

Though I think the prospect of Iran attacking is even more far-fetched than the US invading Iran.


Iran is much bigger and mountaineus than Iraq. It has an army which, though outdated when compared to 1st world armies, is still much stronger than Iraq's ruined wanna-be army before GW2 - though it wouldn't stand a chance against USA without some miracles, it's a fact worth considering. It is also very tribal area, and invasion of Iran would propably have some longterm political effects in Iraq - namely the Shiites becoming more hostile towards USA, and more destabilization of Afghanistan-Iran-Iraq axis would flame up the "Arab street" (Iranians are not arabs, btw) even more.

The manpower issue is also worth considering. Without some pretty big-scale redeployments the US doesn't have sufficient infantry forces for full-scale war and more importantly the propable insurgency problem afterwards. Air strikes are an option, but would propably just enforce the negative image of US round the world and could actually make the Iranians pursue nuclear weapons even more vigorously.

Draft? Not a chance - no one wants it. Military doesn't want it, those who want to continue their political career oppose it, population would quickly become more against the wars.

Of course neo-cons are complete ****heads and the truth has never stopped them from chasing their ideals.
Title: More on Iran
Post by: IceFire on January 29, 2005, 03:08:10 pm
Quote
Originally posted by Zarax
You are overoptimistic my friend, overstretched as they are US troops right now are much easier pickings than usual.
Plus they don't have to mount a full scale offensive, just send a few platoons here and there so that air superiority won't  make too much trouble...

Still, if the Iranian army tried to move tanks and vehicles across the border in any sort of combined force you'd be sure that there would be a line of Abrams tanks and A-10s ready to take them out wholesale...such is the disparity of technology.  In the original gulf war an American tank group which I think was outnumbered 2:1 was able to successfully engage an Iraqi platoon and emerged with no losses.  I can't remember the details, only the fact that the Abrams was able to engage the enemy well outside of their range.

Plus, in terms of manpower, the MBTs like the Abrams aren't much use in cities anyways so they aren't going to be depleting that type of force.

Not that im arguing for any sort of action either way....just that if it was a conventional battle it could be won even "against the odds".  But in all likelyhood it would not be a conventional one...
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Zarax on January 29, 2005, 03:10:04 pm
Yep, but you should assume that the iranians knows that too...
If i was in them i'd just have sent saboteur teams around, something that's quite difficult to counter.
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Gank on January 29, 2005, 05:25:49 pm
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20041129/news_1n29bombers.html
Title: More on Iran
Post by: vyper on January 29, 2005, 10:18:55 pm
Meh, the Yanks are training folk to follow their ideology, the Arabs are doing the same.

I just wish we (UK) could stay out of it. Meh.
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Gank on January 30, 2005, 06:39:04 pm
http://www.globalsecurity.org/org/news/2005/050129-iran-targets.htm

Love the last quote
Title: More on Iran
Post by: vyper on January 30, 2005, 06:44:02 pm
heh.
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Rictor on January 30, 2005, 11:51:21 pm
woah, their reasoning skills just blow me away. Truly, this is ironclad proof that Hersh was making it all up.

edit: you know it just occured to me that even if Hersh was pulling it out of his ass, the Pentagon will be so scared to try anything now, cause everyone would be like "nya nya, see, he was totally right". This story has raised quite a little ****storm, due to Hersh's prior record for being right about these sorts of things.
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Gank on January 31, 2005, 01:18:25 am
I dont think the hawks in the US administration are going to call off bombing Iran just to prove Hersch wrong :doubt:
Title: More on Iran
Post by: 01010 on January 31, 2005, 06:20:50 am
I'd like to see Iran take the initiative and bomb the Whitehouse.
Title: More on Iran
Post by: Zarax on January 31, 2005, 06:24:33 am
I'd expect more Bush having CIA or NSA putting a bomb there and then blaming Iran.
They will make such a move sooner or later,,,