Hard Light Productions Forums
Off-Topic Discussion => General Discussion => Topic started by: Carl on August 07, 2001, 11:41:00 pm
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we can calculate it! computers reached 1 gigahert in 2000 A.D. and they double in power every 18 months, so how powerful will they be in 2365 A.D. ? can anyone figure it out?
[This message has been edited by Carl (edited 08-07-2001).]
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They would have either hit the physical size limits of current computers, or else be using something totally different. (like quantum computers, etc)
Basically, they'd be really powerful. How powerful? Insuficient data.
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Well, if there were no physical limits, a computer the size of a calculator would probably run an Orion (http://dynamic.gamespy.com/~freespace/ubb/noncgi/smile.gif)
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well, given the data i have just provided then.
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Let's see..
18 months = One and a half years.
Number of years between here and GTVA time = 2365 - 2000 = 365 years
365 years / 1.5 = 243
Therefore, speed of GTVA computers would be something like this:
243 * 2 = 486 gigabytes.
Which maybe faster than a human brain I think.
Man, I hate Mathematics.
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figured it out. it is approximately 1.5X 10^73rd power, or
15,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 gigahertz (http://dynamic.gamespy.com/~freespace/ubb/noncgi/eek.gif) (http://dynamic.gamespy.com/~freespace/ubb/noncgi/eek.gif) (http://dynamic.gamespy.com/~freespace/ubb/noncgi/eek.gif) (http://dynamic.gamespy.com/~freespace/ubb/noncgi/eek.gif) (http://dynamic.gamespy.com/~freespace/ubb/noncgi/eek.gif) (http://dynamic.gamespy.com/~freespace/ubb/noncgi/eek.gif)
[This message has been edited by Carl (edited 08-07-2001).]
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Huh?! Are you sure?!
Oh well, Mathematics was never my strong point. (http://dynamic.gamespy.com/~freespace/ubb/noncgi/smile.gif)
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NeoHunter< [b][email protected][/b] >
Not to mention a FREDder! :)
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1) It's measures in Hertz, not bytes.
2) You cannot simply extrapolate forward, as eventually, sooner rather than later, you will be running into materiel and physical limits on computing power.
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Originally posted by Shrike:
2) You cannot simply extrapolate forward, as eventually, sooner rather than later, you will be running into materiel and physical limits on computing power.
Uh.I wouldn't be so quick to say that. 365 years is a lot of time for technology to advance.
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NeoHunter< [b][email protected][/b] >
Not to mention a FREDder! :)
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Originally posted by NeoHunter:
Uh.I wouldn't be so quick to say that. 365 years is a lot of time for technology to advance.
Exactly. 365 years is too long to extrapolate modern technology. If computer power advanced at the current rate, every ship in the GTVA would be automated drones capable of split-second reaction time. But they're not, so obviously computers haven't gotten that powerful.
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It doubles every 18 months, so it'd be 1 GHz * 2^243 (http://dynamic.gamespy.com/~freespace/ubb/noncgi/smile.gif)
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Originally posted by Shrike:
as eventually, sooner rather than later, you will be running into materiel and physical limits on computing power.
Actually, they're already hitting those limits now. They count the spaces between transistors in atoms right now, and you can't get much smaller than that without a buttload of quantum mechanics on your side.
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I know there is a method, but all I see is madness.
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Pretty much what I meant, although it's nice to see someone who knows what I mean. At the moment they're still pushing them smaller, but sometime soon they'll have to find a different way of doing it.
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Originally posted by QXMX:
It doubles every 18 months, so it'd be 1 GHz * 2^243 (http://dynamic.gamespy.com/~freespace/ubb/noncgi/smile.gif)
Like I said in my eariler reply:
Let's see..
18 months = One and a half years.
Number of years between here and GTVA time = 2365 - 2000 = 365 years
365 years / 1.5 = 243
Therefore, speed of GTVA computers would be something like this:
243 * 2 = 486 GHz.
But somehow, Carl had a different answer. Wonder why.....*scratches head*
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I want a better title!!! (http://freespace.volitionwatch.com/excellence/Crazy.gif)
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NeoHunter< [b][email protected][/b] >
Not to mention a FREDder! (http://dynamic.gamespy.com/~freespace/ubb/noncgi/smile.gif)
[This message has been edited by NeoHunter (edited 08-08-2001).]
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Originally posted by NeoHunter:
243 * 2 = 486 GHz.
So they're back to using 486s, eh? Figures. (http://dynamic.gamespy.com/~freespace/ubb/noncgi/tongue.gif)
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I want to wring your neck, Shrike. (http://dynamic.gamespy.com/~freespace/ubb/noncgi/biggrin.gif)
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I want a better title!!! (http://freespace.volitionwatch.com/excellence/Crazy.gif)
GTD Excellence ("http://freespace.volitionwatch.com/excellence") Webmaster
NeoHunter< [b][email protected][/b] >
Not to mention a FREDder! :)
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I hope in 365 years windows 2365 wont crash anymore (in fact I hope MS won't exist anymore (http://dynamic.gamespy.com/~freespace/ubb/noncgi/devil.gif) )
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venom2506 (http://terra.sourceforge.net/images/xanim05.gif)
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Originally posted by Shrike:
1) It's measures in Hertz, not bytes.
2) You cannot simply extrapolate forward, as eventually, sooner rather than later, you will be running into materiel and physical limits on computing power.
*cough* http://www.cs.strath.ac.uk/~paddy/CompSys/future.htm#top ("http://www.cs.strath.ac.uk/~paddy/CompSys/future.htm#top")
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I'll tell you how powerful their computers are... they're powerful enough to translate the very complex Vasudan language on the fly... and they're powerful enough to fire all your ship's thrusters so that you feel like you're flying an airplane rather than a spacecraft.
(http://dynamic.gamespy.com/~freespace/ubb/noncgi/biggrin.gif) Joe.
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Originally posted by Shrike:
it's nice to see someone who knows what I mean.
i knew what you meant. but you obviously didn't know what i meant. so let me say it once again: AT THE CURRENT RATE!!!!
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The clock frequency is no measure of computer power, it's just to please the masses, so in the current rates computers could still be crap by the time the Shivans invaded our systems.
And indeed the physical limits for standard transistor-based processor manufacturing are real close. Next generation computers (and by next-generation I really mean next generation, and not the next frequency level) will probably use Single Electron Transistors, while the next generations to come will probably evolve to multi-level logic, non-deterministic analogic processing, and quantum computing, in this order. And you don't get any faster than a quantum computer (as soon as you have the problem modelled on it, the answer will be instantaneous).
So, there you have an idea. The terrans could quite possibly be using quantum computers, but may have not been able to model a truly AI program, and hence the pilots are still needed. Or they may have stuck on the standard transistors and have the same computing power as today's processors, who knows...
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Or possibly a whole different concept of computing would be used....
or maybe 'wetware', bio-organic components attempting to mimic the functions of the human brain (which is, after all, the mosrt powerful computing system on earth).
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Originally posted by aldo_14:
Or possibly a whole different concept of computing would be used....
or maybe 'wetware', bio-organic components attempting to mimic the functions of the human brain (which is, after all, the mosrt powerful computing system on earth).
? really? tell me what 3343435x435.464648² is, in less than one second...
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Really high... muahaa
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If I could go into the future, I would steal a computer from the GTVA time and come back before those damn Shivans come. Then I wouldn't have to keep upgrading my computer for every high-requirement game comes along! (http://dynamic.gamespy.com/~freespace/ubb/noncgi/smile.gif) (http://dynamic.gamespy.com/~freespace/ubb/noncgi/biggrin.gif) (http://dynamic.gamespy.com/~freespace/ubb/noncgi/smile.gif)
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NeoHunter< [b][email protected][/b] >
Not to mention a FREDder! :)
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truly AI program, and hence the pilots are still needed.
In FS1 it is mentioned that the Tsunami space bomb does use an on-board quasi-AI system for tracking.
Overall, any AI system would be inherintly limited by it's creators by a set of rules or as Asimov wrote: "The laws of robotics."
A human is not bound by these rules and can adapt to situations to do what is right.
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Ace
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http://freespace.volitionwatch.com/ ("http://freespace.volitionwatch.com/")
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Originally posted by NeoHunter:
Like I said in my eariler reply:
Let's see..
18 months = One and a half years.
Number of years between here and GTVA time = 2365 - 2000 = 365 years
365 years / 1.5 = 243
Therefore, speed of GTVA computers would be something like this:
243 * 2 = 486 GHz.
But somehow, Carl had a different answer. Wonder why.....*scratches head*
365 years has 365*12 = 4380 months
4380/18 = 243 times comp speed will double barring physical limits
now take how many flops per second (calculations per second) the newest Cray can do and multiply it by 243.
its a simple geometric progression
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Stop it! Now you are confusing me!
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I want a better title!!! (http://freespace.volitionwatch.com/excellence/Crazy.gif)
GTD Excellence ("http://freespace.volitionwatch.com/excellence") Webmaster
NeoHunter< [b][email protected][/b] >
Not to mention a FREDder! :)
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Originally posted by venom2506:
? really? tell me what 3343435x435.464648² is, in less than one second...
..... you try storing over 20 years of full quality video, sound, smell and taste in an area the size of a small melon... plus able to monitor a complex biological system with billions of parts (cells).... and able to create truly immmersive lifelike artificial environments - aka dreams.
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Originally posted by aldo_14:
..... you try storing over 20 years of full quality video, sound, smell and taste in an area the size of a small melon... plus able to monitor a complex biological system with billions of parts (cells).... and able to create truly immmersive lifelike artificial environments - aka dreams.
for my part, I can't (http://dynamic.gamespy.com/~freespace/ubb/noncgi/biggrin.gif) I can't even remember what I did yesterday afternoon (http://dynamic.gamespy.com/~freespace/ubb/noncgi/lol.gif)
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As realistic as dreams may be, none of mine have ever been true to life enough. There is always something wrong with something in them. (i.e. My car will have different color seats, or my stereo will be made by a different company) I think my CPU is busted. (http://dynamic.gamespy.com/~freespace/ubb/noncgi/wink.gif)
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but do you notes it and does that make you think you are in a dream.
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...I notice it, but I don't think I am dreaming...... (http://dynamic.gamespy.com/~freespace/ubb/noncgi/spineyes.gif)
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Originally posted by Shrike:
Exactly. 365 years is too long to extrapolate modern technology. If computer power advanced at the current rate, every ship in the GTVA would be automated drones capable of split-second reaction time. But they're not, so obviously computers haven't gotten that powerful.
Exactly my thoughts!