Hard Light Productions Forums
Off-Topic Discussion => General Discussion => Topic started by: castor on October 18, 2005, 03:56:25 pm
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Nobody wants to touch this topic? No wonder, its damn scary.
So here's some pointers to get on with it: Tamiflu, Relenza, hypercytokinemia, Osterholm
As for how I see it, if the human-to-human mutation won't be heavily 'diluted', we're fu.. ehem, in trouble.
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Umm... what??!?
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Bird flu. European/Asian problem, at least potentially.
Fear is that avian flu infecting humans could mutate with carried human flu genes, become human-human transmissable and thus cause a new global pandemic (some estimates are as high as 150m deaths ala the 1919 Spanish flu pandemic which killed 20-40m).
Human infections are mostly within the Asian regions; the likes of Thailand, China, etc. However, migrating wild birds with the virus have led to cases detected in Turkey and Greece.
The estimated death toll in the UK from an outbreak is, IIRC, 50,000.
However, all that is dependent upon a mutation into a human transmissable disease; that may happen tomorrow, or never. As it stands, the lack of such a mutation has the side-effect of making it impossible to develop a vaccine.
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So far, 60 people have been killed by it. It's not exactly the Black Plague as these things go.
I'm not too worried; the pharmaceutical industry, however, must be wiping their assess with $100 bills about now.
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To be precise, Roche (the producer of Tamiflu) is making a fortune.
And the press is going completely bonkers with hadlines like "Don't panic!!" , just to go on over 10 pages how lethal it could be.
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Originally posted by Rictor
So far, 60 people have been killed by it. It's not exactly the Black Plague as these things go.
I'm not too worried; the pharmaceutical industry, however, must be wiping their assess with $100 bills about now.
Well, as is it's pretty hard to catch because it's avian-human and AFAIK that requires pretty close proximity.
It's not the panic state the newspapers like to put out, of course.
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Originally posted by Rictor
So far, 60 people have been killed by it. It's not exactly the Black Plague as these things go.
While it's only transmittable by bird-human contact. If this thing ever does mutate to human-human contact (and lets face it, it's only a matter of time) then those 60 deaths will be a drop in the ocean when you consider that flu is currently a pretty big killer even now with relatively mild strains.
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Pretty scarry...I'll definately be wanting to hide away if this thing goes nuts.
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Originally posted by karajorma
While it's only transmittable by bird-human contact. If this thing ever does mutate to human-human contact (and lets face it, it's only a matter of time) then those 60 deaths will be a drop in the ocean when you consider that flu is currently a pretty big killer even now with relatively mild strains.
Why has this only become a big issue now? If it could mutate at any time, why weren't we living in fear 10 years ago? Given that's it Europe and Asia's ass on the line, and they have more than their fair share of Smart Guys, I'm betting on a vaccine sooner or later, if the thing ever becomes a danger at all. Worse comes to worse, you just have the army quarantine the area.
Now, it would be a different situation in Third World countries, but I think that the relevant UN agency would lend a hand if anything happened, since everyone is at risk if it spread.
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You aren't afraid of a situtation like the flu of 1918, Rictor? Antivirus production has not increased that much.
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I admit, my lack of fear may be due to ignorance. But surely things have improved in medicine since 1918, and not only in medicine but in areas of information, distribution, response and so on. If an outbreak were to occur, I'm pretty sure that it would be considered an international problem and treated with adequate resources.
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Medicine has improved, especially in the antibacterial area. Antiviral agents, however, are still a very new and untested field, and given the fact that the world is far more connected than it has been in the past and the increased population, a pandemic would likely cause even more deaths.
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Who is it here that keeps on saying the world is shaking of the human virus?
Anyway, It'll probably happen considering we haven't had a major pandemic lately and well the world is starting to get a bit "cramped" I guess.
Now I'm glad I live in the middle of nowhere where everything is seperated by mountains and such. :p
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You know, what with all the natural disasters and potential epidemics and so forth, those survivalists up in the woods of Montana with their rifles and cans of beef are starting to look sensible.
But not to worry, JC Denton shows up and all the people get their Amrosia in the end.
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Originally posted by Rictor
I admit, my lack of fear may be due to ignorance. But surely things have improved in medicine since 1918, and not only in medicine but in areas of information, distribution, response and so on. If an outbreak were to occur, I'm pretty sure that it would be considered an international problem and treated with adequate resources.
We also have a larger international problem and more transmission vectors (specifically air travel) than 1918. In the issue of medicine, it's a red-queen type situation; with a mutation you'd probably need to be developing a specific cure or immunisation after the first human-human strain, and mass manufacturing would be as much of a problem as distribution.
The reason this is a present concern, rather than 10 years ago, is because of a pandemic type situation of avian flu in 2003-04 in Asia. With the first avian-human transmission in 1997, a large avian infection would be of concern in this regard. 10 years ago, we 9more correctly, the likes of the WHO) probably didn't know this was possible or feasible.
Of 3 (20th century) flu pandemics, there's been a high likelihood of an avian factor. The 1918 virus has been linked with an avian origin. The 1957-58 pandemic (killed 70,000 in US, originated from asia) and the 1968-69 pandemic (originated Hong Kong, killed 34,000 US) both contained a combination of genes from human and avian flu.
It's simple prudence to keep an eye on this and overestimate the measures needed to prevent/combat the risk. That doesn't imply I or anyone else need go running away screaming when they see a pigeon.
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Originally posted by Grey Wolf
You aren't afraid of a situtation like the flu of 1918, Rictor? Antivirus production has not increased that much.
Plus any treatment would so horrifically expensive that most people couldn't dream of having it. Just look at the AIDS pandemic.
But not to worry, JC Denton shows up and all the people get their Amrosia in the end.
After many hundreds of millions of people die from pandemics.
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Originally posted by Rictor
You know, what with all the natural disasters and potential epidemics and so forth, those survivalists up in the woods of Montana with their rifles and cans of beef are starting to look sensible.
Not when they die of BSE (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/4349916.stm), they won't. :p
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Originally posted by Rictor
Given that's it Europe and Asia's ass on the line, and they have more than their fair share of Smart Guys, I'm betting on a vaccine sooner or later, if the thing ever becomes a danger at all.
You obviously don't understand the problem. Where birds in nature who have the disease have spread to is not the problem. Even if bird flu reaches the UK it doesn't really mean any extra danger to the average UK citizen as we only come across birds once they're cooked and on a dinner plate.
The danger from the spread of the virus is agricultural at the moment. The real danger is a mutation that becomes tranmissable from human to human. That has already happened in the past and it killed ~40 million people in 1918. If that happens it's not just Europe and Asia's problem. The entire world stands a good chance of being hit due to the ready availability of air travel.
After SARS I would have thought someone living in Canada would have realised exactly how big the danger of a disease spreading from Asia to there was.
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Easy solution: kill all birds. Everything tastes like chicken anyway, so it's not like it would be a big loss. :p
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And if that didn't make you feel uneasy yet, this certainly will..
(http://www.geo.arizona.edu/Antevs/nats104/spanishflu.gif)
Hopefully there won't be agressive mutations within the coming few years, to give some time for preparations. Now that it seems the seriousness of the issue has been widely acknowledged.
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Notice how the life expectancy dropped sharply about the time the US entered WW1
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Originally posted by Kosh
Notice how the life expectancy dropped sharply about the time the US entered WW1
The US had a fairly minimal role in WW1 compared to the other nations; they entered very late into the war (1917; largescale deployment in summer 1918) and the casualties (official deaths from the US, as set in 1920, were 30,000 officially and estimated IIRC nowadays at something like 120,000 - compared to,say, an estimated 400,000 for Serbia) were insignificant in terms of population percentage and thus unlikely to cause a stastical skew.
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Originally posted by karajorma
You obviously don't understand the problem. Where birds in nature who have the disease have spread to is not the problem. Even if bird flu reaches the UK it doesn't really mean any extra danger to the average UK citizen as we only come across birds once they're cooked and on a dinner plate.
The danger from the spread of the virus is agricultural at the moment. The real danger is a mutation that becomes tranmissable from human to human. That has already happened in the past and it killed ~40 million people in 1918. If that happens it's not just Europe and Asia's problem. The entire world stands a good chance of being hit due to the ready availability of air travel.
After SARS I would have thought someone living in Canada would have realised exactly how big the danger of a disease spreading from Asia to there was.
But see, I thought the SARS thing was blown way out of proportion too. How many deaths did it cause? I can't exactly recall, but it was AFAIK under a thousand. And people were walking around the streets of Toronto with masks on their faces.
I don't worry about this for the reason I don't worry about a nuclear holocaust. Because, first of all there's nothing I can do about it, secondly because I have been lead to believe that relatively competent men are in charge of the situation (and I'm reffering to scientist not politicians) and lastly because it benefits no one to let disaster happen.
If it can be prevented or minimized, it will be prevented or minimized. If it can't, then why worry anyway? It's in no one's interests to see millions die, because those millions likely won't be geographically constrained.
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You know, I'm not much worrying about a mutation in this particular strain of Flu as a mutation in one of the thousands of other non human-communicable flu's that could mutate, personally, I think that, at only 60 deaths so far, that this flu has quite possibly been contagious from bird-human for a long long time, and we've only just found out, it doesn't neccesarily mean that this flu is the next 'super-bug'. As far as I know, there is actually no physical evidence to say it has mutated recently or will mutate in the near future other than those deaths recorded from an area which, until recently, were famous for being tight lipped.
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But see, I thought the SARS thing was blown way out of proportion too. How many deaths did it cause? I can't exactly recall, but it was AFAIK under a thousand. And people were walking around the streets of Toronto with masks on their faces
Perhaps, but if they did nothing then the disease could have been a lot worse than it really was. You have to stop things like this early.
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Originally posted by Rictor
But see, I thought the SARS thing was blown way out of proportion too. How many deaths did it cause? I can't exactly recall, but it was AFAIK under a thousand. And people were walking around the streets of Toronto with masks on their faces.
I thought the AIDS thing was blown way out of proportion too. How many deaths did it cause? I can't exactly recall, but it was AFAIK under a thousand gay men in San Fransisco. And people were f**king around the bedrooms of Toronto with condoms on their penises.
See?
SARS wasn't a problem precisely because it was handled correctly. Yes there were people talking action that really had no major cause to worry about it but the fact is that by reacting as quickly and as drastically to it we stopped it. Hell we might have even killed it forever.
Had people reacted with the same fear to AIDS we might have been able to dead end it too. Probably not as easily because of the long incubation period but it certainly would have reduced the transmission rate.
Originally posted by Rictor
I don't worry about this for the reason I don't worry about a nuclear holocaust. Because, first of all there's nothing I can do about it, secondly because I have been lead to believe that relatively competent men are in charge of the situation (and I'm reffering to scientist not politicians) and lastly because it benefits no one to let disaster happen.
It benifited no one to let mad cows disease run rampant through British dairy herds either. I would have thought that you would be well aware of the fact that governments attempt to do nothing if they think they can get away with it. I'm very glad that people are scared of bird flu. It means that the governments of the world have to do something about it. If people weren't scared could you see the same British governments who let both BSE and foot and mouth run out of control before reacting doing something as drastic as instituting hugely unpopular quarantines over something as trivial as the flu?
Originally posted by Rictor
If it can be prevented or minimized, it will be prevented or minimized. If it can't, then why worry anyway? It's in no one's interests to see millions die, because those millions likely won't be geographically constrained.
Yes it can be prevented but only by those governments spending time and money on preparedness measures. It's not like the scientists can wave a magic wand and the disease will go away. Scientists have been warning about H5N1 for years and very few people have listened (except in the far east thankfully where it's most important).
This isn't a black and white situation. What will minimize the effects of a pandemic is swift response, good quarantine measures etc. These aren't things that are down to the scientists. These are down to the politicians.
Do you seriously believe that the other governments of the world would actually listen to scientists unless they were scared? I certainly can't see the British government doing it and seeing as how Bush virtually ignores his own scientific advisors I can't see the US doing it either.
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Better to overreact and stop something dead in its tracks and wonder at what might be instead of just facing inevitability without at least trying to stand against it.
SARS was pretty scarry around here (Toronto area) and although the number of deaths was low...it was every day people who live and work around these parts. I remember there being a very healthy amount of fear...and you know what...they got a grip on that pretty quickly.
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Sorry, couldn't resist :D
(http://www.vgcats.com/comics/images/030622.jpg) (http://www.vgcats.com/comics/?strip_id=57)
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LOL :)
Originally posted by Rictor
I don't worry about this for the reason I don't worry about a nuclear holocaust.
Because, first of all there's nothing I can do about it, secondly because I have been lead to believe that relatively competent men are in charge of the situation
(and I'm reffering to scientist not politicians) and lastly because it benefits no one to let disaster happen.
True, worrying and panicking won't help a bit.
Still, I think it wouldn't hurt if the general awareness regarding this was a bit better; if it gets loose before we are ready, it will be the job of every Jack and jill to try and slow it down.
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The world needs another plague. Something needs to reduce the human population, and I don't see any giant meteors heading our way at the moment.
Although an Ice Age is quite likely in the near (<500 years) future.
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WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE
[I touched a Siberian bird two weeks ago. Not in THAT way you sick filthy pervert you.]
DIE I SAY
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Originally posted by Descenterace
The world needs another plague. Something needs to reduce the human population, and I don't see any giant meteors heading our way at the moment.
Although an Ice Age is quite likely in the near (<500 years) future.
I have no doubt that someone is hard at work creating one. :p
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Originally posted by Descenterace
The world needs another plague. Something needs to reduce the human population.
I always suggest getting people who bang on about reducing the worlds population by plague, war or famine to commit suicide is the best idea.
Funny how they're never willing to go first isn't it :p
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Originally posted by Janos
WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE
[I touched a Siberian bird two weeks ago. Not in THAT way you sick filthy pervert you.]
DIE I SAY
What does that have to do with anything?:wtf:
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Originally posted by Swantz
What does that have to do with anything?:wtf:
Silence heathen.
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A customer enters a pet shop.
Customer: 'Ello, I wish to register a complaint.
(The owner does not respond.)
C: 'Ello, Miss?
Owner: What do you mean "miss"?
C: I'm sorry, I have a cold. I wish to make a complaint!
O: We're closin' for lunch.
C: Never mind that, my lad. I wish to complain about this parrot what I purchased not half an hour ago from this very boutique.
O: Oh yes, the, uh, the Norwegian Blue...What's,uh...What's wrong with it?
C: I'll tell you what's wrong with it, my lad. 'E's dead, that's what's wrong with it! (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4365956.stm)
O: No, no, 'e's uh,...he's resting.
C: Look, matey, I know a dead parrot when I see one, and I'm looking at one right now.
O: No no he's not dead, he's, he's restin'! Remarkable bird, the Norwegian Blue, idn'it, ay? Beautiful plumage!
C: The plumage don't enter into it. It's stone dead.
O: Nononono, no, no! 'E's resting!
C: All right then, if he's restin', I'll wake him up!
(shouting at the cage)
'Ello, Mister Polly Parrot! I've got a lovely fresh cuttle fish for you if you show...(owner hits the cage)
O: There, he moved!
C: No, he didn't, that was you hitting the cage!
O: I never!!
C: Yes, you did!
O: I never, never did anything...
C: (yelling and hitting the cage repeatedly) 'ELLO POLLY!!!!!
Testing! Testing! Testing! Testing! This is your nine o'clock alarm call!
(Takes parrot out of the cage and thumps its head on the counter. Throws it up in the air and watches it plummet to the floor.)
C: Now that's what I call a dead parrot.
O: No, no.....No, 'e's stunned!
C: STUNNED?!?
O: Yeah! You stunned him, just as he was wakin' up! Norwegian Blues stun easily, major.
C: Um...now look...now look, mate, I've definitely 'ad enough of this. That parrot is definitely deceased, and when I purchased it not 'alf an hour ago, you assured me that its total lack of movement was due to it bein' tired and shagged out following a prolonged squawk.
O: Well, he's...he's, ah...probably pining for the fjords.
C: PININ' for the FJORDS?!?!?!? What kind of talk is that?, look, why did he fall flat on his back the moment I got 'im home?
O: The Norwegian Blue prefers kippin' on it's back! Remarkable bird, id'nit, squire? Lovely plumage!
C: Look, I took the liberty of examining that parrot when I got it home, and I discovered the only reason that it had been sitting on its perch in the first place was that it had been NAILED there.
(pause)
O: Well, o'course it was nailed there! If I hadn't nailed that bird down, it would have nuzzled up to those bars, bent 'em apart with its beak, and VOOM! Feeweeweewee!
C: "VOOM"?!? Mate, this bird wouldn't "voom" if you put four million volts through it! 'E's bleedin' demised!
O: No no! 'E's pining!
C: 'E's not pinin'! 'E's passed on! This parrot is no more! He has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker!
'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! If you hadn't nailed 'im to the perch 'e'd be pushing up the daisies!
'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig!
'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisibile!!
THIS IS AN EX-PARROT!!
(pause)
O: Well, I'd better replace it, then.
(he takes a quick peek behind the counter)
O: Sorry squire, I've had a look 'round the back of the shop, and uh, we're right out of parrots.
C: I see. I see, I get the picture.
O: I got a slug.
(pause)
C: (sweet as sugar) Pray, does it talk?
O: Nnnnot really.
C: WELL IT'S HARDLY A BLOODY REPLACEMENT, IS IT?!!???!!?
O: Look, if you go to my brother's pet shop in Bolton, he'll replace the parrot for you.
C: Bolton, eh? Very well.
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And now for something completely different.