Hard Light Productions Forums
Off-Topic Discussion => General Discussion => Topic started by: WeatherOp on October 18, 2005, 06:55:47 pm
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Hurricane Wilma is undergoing Rapid intensfication, and looks to reach Major hurricane status in the next few hours.
Then it will head towards Florida possibly as a Major hurricane. With very favorable conditions, it is likely the Wilma will countinue to strengthen. Allthough sheer is in the forecast later, and that should eventully weaken Wilma.
(http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg)
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I laughed at the title, and hurrah another hurricane heading for Florida! :doubt:
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God ****!
When will it end?
OH LORD, PLEASE STOP SHOOTING THESE WHIRLY SPINNY THINGS OF DOOM AT US!
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Hmm. The lord is doing it? Why, oh why, would the lord be constantly pummelling the south, (aka Bible Belt) with such a punishment? :rolleyes:
/troublemaking
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You think Florida is part of "the south"?
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It's part of the North now? Wow, no wonder I failed Geography...
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Originally posted by ZylonBane
You think Florida is part of "the south"?
It's south of the Mason-Dixon line, and was the third state to defect from the Union.
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If there's still a "southerner" living in the state of Florida, I'd be very much suprised. Geographically Southern, yes, but culturally it's nothing close.
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Originally posted by Raa
Hmm. The lord is doing it? Why, oh why, would the lord be constantly pummelling the south, (aka Bible Belt) with such a punishment? :rolleyes:
/troublemaking
More than likely, after it hits Florida, it be combine with a northern storm and become a Horrific Nor'Easter,and cause all kinds of problems for the North.
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Originally posted by WeatherOp
More than likely, after it hits Florida, it be combine with a northern storm and become a Horrific Nor'Easter,and cause all kinds of problems for the North.
Then it'll decide to ignore the North as it is relatively unoffensive. Sip a cup of Tea with John Forbes Kerry, and then turn its wrathful eye upon Alabama.
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Virtually impossible due to physics :p
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4355622.stm
It's now a cat 5 hurricane and it could hit the Southeast part of the US.
I wonder if it will hit N.O.
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Wilma reaches impossible strength, becomes the most powerful hurricane in Atlantic history with a pressure of 882millabars.!!:eek2:
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This is becoming so common it's starting to just mix into everyrday life.
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This is getting to be like time warp episodes on Star Trek.
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:eek2: The eye has contracted overnight to an incredible 2-4 miles wide, just for reference Kat's eye was 28 miles wide and Rita's was 25 miles.
So, Wilma's core is like a 8 milewide F-3 tornado.
(http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/RGB/20.jpg)
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Jeez! Hopefully it will leak a lot of power before it hits Florida.
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Hehe.... floate.
Wait.
I've done that one, haven't I?
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Originally posted by aldo_14
Hehe.... floate.
Wait.
I've done that one, haven't I?
Yeah, back on Kat.:p
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Originally posted by Dark RevenantX
Jeez! Hopefully it will leak a lot of power before it hits Florida.
Don't count on that too much. It probably will weaken somewhat when it hits the Yucetan, but it goes back over warm water after that. It probably will get it's strength back.
I do think it would be ironic if it turned an smacked New Orleans.
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Originally posted by Kosh
I do think it would be ironic if it turned an smacked New Orleans.
Alanis' work here is done.
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Originally posted by Kosh
Don't count on that too much. It probably will weaken somewhat when it hits the Yucetan, but it goes back over warm water after that. It probably will get it's strength back.
I do think it would be ironic if it turned an smacked New Orleans.
Yes, it should weaken before it hits Florida, not because of the Yucetan, but because of the high level Sheer that is suposed to come down with a cold front, if it don't, Florida is in deep trouble.
And no, it will not hit NO, the same front will sweep it out across Florida, and then, maybe curve it back up the US coast hitting New England.
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I have a question, are you a meteorologist or something? :p
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Originally posted by Kosh
I have a question, are you a meteorologist or something? :p
No, not yet anyways.:p
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She's moving reaaally slowly...what would be a normal speed for such a hurricane?
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Originally posted by General Freak
She's moving reaaally slowly...what would be a normal speed for such a hurricane?
It can depend, Strength has very little to do with speed, it can range from stationary to 60mph, Allthough you want find many Cat.5s doin more than 20mph, Allthough Andrew was the exception.
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From what I've heard, it's supposed to drop to a Cat. 2 before hitting Flordia. Still, long-range reports are inaccurate, and in any case, this thing is still bad news. I just can't believe how quickly it intensified.
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Do you still say there is nothing to global warming? :p
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Originally posted by Kosh
Do you still say there is nothing to global warming? :p
No, in fact I never said that, What I said is that you can't get me to belive the "Ooo no, the whole Earth is warming so quick, and it's gonna cause all these bad things, so everyone get Bush cause it's his fault" mess the media is saying. Could the Earth be warming, yes, but I take a neutral stand on it right now.
Did GB cause this year's and last year's hurricane action? No, even right now Wilma is sitting over warm water that is average for this time of year.
Then what caused these 3 Cat.5s this year? Simple, it was a mixture of things. Normal water temps, maybe above avg in some places, but that didn't cause it.
No, sheer, normally where Wilma is sitting, strong westerlies would tear everything apart, however none is present.
And no dry air, probley the most dangrous thing a Hurricane can encounter, in fact it stripped Hurricane Lili a few years back, from a Cat.4 to a Cat.1 in 3 or 4 hours. Also got Frances last years from a Cat.4 to a Weak Cat.2 in under 6 hours.
All the Cat.5s we have had this year, has had perfect conditions to be what they became. Even with the warmest water, a Tropical Depression won't form if High level sheer is strong, alot of Dry air is present, or the Tropical Heat potential of the water is low.
The water maybe over 90 degrees, but if Tropical Heat potential is low, the storm will weaken once it tapps that shallow water, thats how Rita weakened, it ran over and tapped the warm, but shallow water of the GOM and ran out of fuel.
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Originally posted by Kosh
Do you still say there is nothing to global warming? :p
As many experts have said, one or two active hurricane seasons do not provide any quantitiative evidence for how pervasive global warming is. Hurricanes tend to occur in cycles; a few very active seasons can be followed by a few that have much lower activity than average. I believe I heard something about a 30-year cycle once, but don't quote me on that. At any rate, the fact that we've had a few monster hurricanes this year shouldn't cause you to immediately start screaming "Global warming!!1!1" As WeatherOp said, each of these storms came about by the perfect combination of all of the necessary elements, and this combination occurring all at once is really nothing more than random chance. Real science isn't based on coincidences; it stems from verifiable observations over significant periods of time. Now, if we see hurricane seasons like this one for the next ten or fifteen years in a row, I'd have to say that that would be some pretty damning evidence that something's up with the Earth's climate, but the fact remains that we haven't seen that yet. This season could easily be a fluke and nothing more.
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That's the most arrogant statement I've seen in a while. While I do agree that an active hurricane season in and of itself is not conclusive evidence of global warming, that doesn't mean that the overwhelming wealth of information we have supporting a warming trend is invalid. This is just one piece of the puzzle, so to speak. It also doesn't mean that other weather pattern changes resulting from global warming were not factors in making the conditions more favorable to these storms forming. Are humans directly responsible for the changes we're seeing in our weather? Absolutely. How much is still being debated in scientific circles (the increase in the sun's temperature may be effecting global temperatures by as much as 30% of what we're observing overall, for example) the fact of the matter is human interaction with the environment is producing some extremely serious effects.
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Originally posted by Mongoose
As many experts have said, one or two active hurricane seasons do not provide any quantitiative evidence for how pervasive global warming is. Hurricanes tend to occur in cycles; a few very active seasons can be followed by a few that have much lower activity than average. I believe I heard something about a 30-year cycle once, but don't quote me on that. At any rate, the fact that we've had a few monster hurricanes this year shouldn't cause you to immediately start screaming "Global warming!!1!1" As WeatherOp said, each of these storms came about by the perfect combination of all of the necessary elements, and this combination occurring all at once is really nothing more than random chance. Real science isn't based on coincidences; it stems from verifiable observations over significant periods of time. Now, if we see hurricane seasons like this one for the next ten or fifteen years in a row, I'd have to say that that would be some pretty damning evidence that something's up with the Earth's climate, but the fact remains that we haven't seen that yet. This season could easily be a fluke and nothing more.
uum, Mongoose, were gonna see another 15-20 years of these types of Hurricane seasons, they said we have just entered the cycle the past few years. And then we will see 15-30 years of very little activity.
The reason these years have seams so odd, is that like I said before in another thread, we've just discovered the tech 30-40 years ago, so anything before 1961, they have to guess at how many hurricanes there was and the intensity, the record we tied this year, was set in 1931, so we have no information to confirm or disprove that.
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Appearently nobody seemed to notice the ":p", indicating sarcasm.
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Originally posted by Mongoose
As many experts have said, one or two active hurricane seasons do not provide any quantitiative evidence for how pervasive global warming is. Hurricanes tend to occur in cycles; a few very active seasons can be followed by a few that have much lower activity than average. I believe I heard something about a 30-year cycle once, but don't quote me on that. At any rate, the fact that we've had a few monster hurricanes this year shouldn't cause you to immediately start screaming "Global warming!!1!1" As WeatherOp said, each of these storms came about by the perfect combination of all of the necessary elements, and this combination occurring all at once is really nothing more than random chance. Real science isn't based on coincidences; it stems from verifiable observations over significant periods of time. Now, if we see hurricane seasons like this one for the next ten or fifteen years in a row, I'd have to say that that would be some pretty damning evidence that something's up with the Earth's climate, but the fact remains that we haven't seen that yet. This season could easily be a fluke and nothing more.
From what I recall, the theory being made RE: cycles was that frequency of hurricanes was cyclical, but it was an increasing average strength that could be linked (potentially; this is still a developing theory of course) to the warming of the ocean surface.
In terms of overally climatology; to put it simply, if you wait 10-15 years to see if somethings wrong, and there is something wrong, by that stage we are all, deeply, deeply ****ed. And there is strong evidence, even excluding hurricanes of ecological damage and growing temperatures (such as melting permafrost in Siberia).
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i have an uneducated guess........
The earth's climate has always been somewhat fragile. i do believe that global warming happens, but not that ti alone can account for what we are seeing. Remember last december? the earth took such a hit (earthquake) that we now wobble? Has anyone considered the possibility that the wobble could partiallyaccount for some of this? it would seem to me that ANY shift in the earth's tilt would raise some havoc with weather patterns, and when we couple this with global warming....we see the kinds of killer storms that we are seeing now.
Not really even a guess, but something worth thinking about.
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Originally posted by ShadowWolf_IH
i have an uneducated guess........
The earth's climate has always been somewhat fragile. i do believe that global warming happens, but not that ti alone can account for what we are seeing. Remember last december? the earth took such a hit (earthquake) that we now wobble? Has anyone considered the possibility that the wobble could partiallyaccount for some of this? it would seem to me that ANY shift in the earth's tilt would raise some havoc with weather patterns, and when we couple this with global warming....we see the kinds of killer storms that we are seeing now.
Not really even a guess, but something worth thinking about.
Umm, I really would doubt that a single earthquake could cause a tilt in the Earth.:p
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Well, he DID say it was an uneducated guess.
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The earthquake in december that caused the massive tsunami did in fact cause a wobble in the earth's tilt.
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It didn't exactly tilt, but it altered the secondary tilt slightly. You know how when you spin something and the axis of rotation is itself rotating or wobbling? The earthquake altered that slightly, as well as speeding up the earth's rotation a few miliseconds. Who knows if that means anything climate wise, as there have been worse geologic disturbances in the past that have no doubt had similar effects. We don't have anything to compare it to.
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.........
I'm still a little skeptical. Any links to that?
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Ok, back to Wilma, winds are down to 160mph, but it still has an amazing pressure of 892mbs. Wilma is also not weakening, but is in the middle of an ERC"Eyewall replacement cycle" So it will likely strengthen latter on again.
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Google is my friend:
http://www.newton.dep.anl.gov/askasci/env99/env275.htm
http://slate.msn.com/id/2111443/
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thanks fenrir, i was trying to find the thread that linked to it.
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i am hoping that it is down to a cat 2 or 3 by the time it its miami.....then all we will get is rain and some killer surf here in north florida.
The weather channel (i know i know) was saying that once it enters the jet stream it will make the turn to florida but will also weaken due to shear.
what are your thoughts op?
oops...sorry for the double post
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Originally posted by ShadowWolf_IH
i am hoping that it is down to a cat 2 or 3 by the time it its miami.....then all we will get is rain and some killer surf here in north florida.
The weather channel (i know i know) was saying that once it enters the jet stream it will make the turn to florida but will also weaken due to shear.
what are your thoughts op?
oops...sorry for the double post
As, with alot of other people, I have hardly a clue where this is going.
But, if I would go with my gut feeling, whitch can ofter be wrong, thank goodness, is it heading towards Florida, but the front will stall, and be just enough to push it.
The sheer will stay up north, and this will not weaken, I'm more worried about this storm than Kat or Rita. The US has been spared two direct hits from Cat.5 hurricanes this year, Something tells me, we will not be as lucky this time.:sigh:
Worse case senario, Hits Florida as a Cat.5 hurricane, turns up the east coast and barrels into NY city or Boston, bringing a incredible storm surge.
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please tell me that wasn't the sugar coated version of how you could have put it.
Maybe i should move to kansas.
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Originally posted by ShadowWolf_IH
please tell me that wasn't the sugar coated version of how you could have put it.
Maybe i should move to kansas.
How far are you down, if you're up around Daytona, or Jacksonville I think you're fine, you will probley get some rain, some wind that might knock out your power. However if you are below Orlando, even on the other side of Florida you need to pay great attention.
And once again they scarey part is the strength, this is at Super Typhoon levels, we has no idea how this is gonna act. This thing broke the record with no effort.
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half hour south of Jax, in St Augustine.
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Originally posted by ShadowWolf_IH
half hour south of Jax, in St Augustine.
Well you look to be in good shape ;), just watch it, and makes sure it doesn't decide to come up that way.Since no body, including the NHC has a clue.
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Originally posted by Mongoose
Real science isn't based on coincidences; it stems from verifiable observations over significant periods of time.
It's really ironic you should say that seeing as how the only evidence for the 30 year cycle you mentioned is 2 points on a graph.
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I do not understand why people choose to live in Florida. I lived there for 10 years, and I still don't get it. It's hot. It's humid. It's flat. And it's God's Bowling Alley. Seriously, folks, why?
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Originally posted by karajorma
It's really ironic you should say that seeing as how the only evidence for the 30 year cycle you mentioned is 2 points on a graph.
I had no idea about the legitimacy of the 30-year claim; I was just throwing it out there as something I had heard about. If that really is the only evidence, then I'll agree that it's not too much more than speculation. I also think that a lot of people mistook the meaning behind my post. I'm by no means saying that global warming is a myth, or that there's no evidence to support it other than what the hurricane season can show. What I am saying is that one or two hurricane seasons with higher-than-normal activity cannot immediately be taken as an indicator for how prevalent global warming is. It's simply not enough data.
About the "ten years being too late" claim: I hate to say it, but even if the human race were to completely cease all CO2 production as of this moment, the global temperature would still continue to climb due to what's already in the atmosphere. In that respect, finding a correlation after ten years wouldn't really make that much of a difference.
Sandwich, I'll agree with you about not wanting to live in Florida. I like winter far too much to move somewhere that rarely/never gets any snow. :p
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Hey, let's not go THAT far - I think there's a place in Northern Florida that got snow. Once. In recorded history... :doubt:
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Wilma has weakened to a Strong Cat.4 hurricane with winds of 155mph but stll with a very low pressure of 894mbs, and is expected to restrengthen tommorow.
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Originally posted by Mongoose
I had no idea about the legitimacy of the 30-year claim; I was just throwing it out there as something I had heard about. If that really is the only evidence, then I'll agree that it's not too much more than speculation. I also think that a lot of people mistook the meaning behind my post. I'm by no means saying that global warming is a myth, or that there's no evidence to support it other than what the hurricane season can show. What I am saying is that one or two hurricane seasons with higher-than-normal activity cannot immediately be taken as an indicator for how prevalent global warming is. It's simply not enough data.
About the "ten years being too late" claim: I hate to say it, but even if the human race were to completely cease all CO2 production as of this moment, the global temperature would still continue to climb due to what's already in the atmosphere. In that respect, finding a correlation after ten years wouldn't really make that much of a difference.
Um... the whole point is stopping would be to prevent an irreversible (in our lifetimes) climatic change. I believe it's been predicted that could occur within 10-15 years, even assuming other contributing events (release of gas from frozen peat) don't happen.
Besides which, what you're implying is that it's not even worth bothering taking precautions or considering it, because we're all doomed anyway. Which, to me, is a mite daft and short-sighted.
Oh, and Wilma from space (ISS)
(http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/10/20/wilma_from_space.jpg)
Originally posted by ShadowWolf_IH
i have an uneducated guess........
The earth's climate has always been somewhat fragile. i do believe that global warming happens, but not that ti alone can account for what we are seeing. Remember last december? the earth took such a hit (earthquake) that we now wobble? Has anyone considered the possibility that the wobble could partiallyaccount for some of this? it would seem to me that ANY shift in the earth's tilt would raise some havoc with weather patterns, and when we couple this with global warming....we see the kinds of killer storms that we are seeing now.
Not really even a guess, but something worth thinking about.
We don't wobble. The earth wobbled; about 2.5-6cm. But this impact (I think lengthening a day by about 3 millionths of a second) would be pretty swiftly overridden by the tidal effects of the moon.
Also, the Earth has a natural wobble owing to it's tilt (trying to 'right' itself), and also the 'Chandler wobble', which occurs as the earth is not rotating around it's centre of inertia. AFAIK the Chandler wobble also is affected by inputs of energy like asteroid impact or quake.
So the tsunami quake is scarcely a unique event and, AFAIK, none of these wobbles has even been linked to climatological change (particularly in the case of warming the planet, and especially with regards to the known causes of a greenhouse effect).
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Possible the worse thing that could happen, is happening. Wilma's 2 mile wide eye has fell apart over night in the ERC, but no it appears to be getting ready to end that cycle.
The new eye is over 45 miles wide, and even tho Wilma has weakened down 145mph, it's wind field has doubled or tripled. Once it's new eye forms completly, instead of have a 7 mile wide path of destuction, you are gonna have a 50-70 mile wide one. And it is expected to strenthen today.
Also, Wilma is also changing it's form into what is called an "annular" hurricane, these types of hurricanes keep their strength far longer than normal hurricanes, and rarely have ERCs.
Also on top of that, with an huge eye, Wilma will also bring a huge storm surge over 20 feet high.
This could spell distaster for Southern Florida.:sigh:
(http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/RGB/20.jpg)
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Sucks to be in Florida right now.
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When is it expected to hit?
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Sunday, give or take.
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Crikey.
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It's possiblity that it hits Mexico and weakens alot before hitting Florida, however I'm not convinced, it looks as tho it's turned north and will is Mexico.
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Originally posted by aldo_14
Um... the whole point is stopping would be to prevent an irreversible (in our lifetimes) climatic change. I believe it's been predicted that could occur within 10-15 years, even assuming other contributing events (release of gas from frozen peat) don't happen.
Besides which, what you're implying is that it's not even worth bothering taking precautions or considering it, because we're all doomed anyway. Which, to me, is a mite daft and short-sighted.
That's not what I was implying at all. In fact, I think we're far from doomed. I just don't buy the whole "irreversible change" theory. I believe that the Earth's overall temperature has increased over the last 150 years, I believe that this increase has accelerated over the past 30, and I believe that human activities make, at the very least, a small contribution to this change, but what I don't believe is that global warming is the doomsday scenario that some very vocal people are saying it will be. I sense more than a little media sensationalism and not a lot of hard science in claims like that. That 10-15 years figure is definitely greatly exaggerated; my thermodynamics professor just did a presentation on the CO2 cycle, and the expected rise in global temperature over the next 50 years or so isn't any more than 2 degrees Celsius. I'd hardly call that "irreversible." As a comparison point to human activity, consider the fact that a large-scale volcanic eruption releases more CO2 into the atmosphere than human activity has ever managed. Last time I checked, though, we're all still here. That's all I wanted to say about this, seeing as how there was a recent discussion about it, and I'd rather not start a flamewar in an unrelated thread.
To anyone out there in the Yucatan/southern Florida, good luck, and stay safe.
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Your thermodynamics professor is obviously not current in his climatology. Did he include the effects of methane hydrate in his explaination? Did he take global dimming into account?
As for the volcanic erruption claim, if he said that disregard everything he ever says about climatology ever again as it's quite clear he doesn't know jack **** about it.
1) While volcanoes do release massive amounts of CO2 they also release massive amounts of sulphur dioxide which have a cooling effect which more than cancels out the effect of CO2
2) Recent studies (http://www.greenhouse.crc.org.au/crc/ecarbon/media_28Mar03.htm) have shown that the sulphur aerosols actually increase the intake of CO2 by plants worldwide.
3) Most importantly though the claim that volcanoes release more CO2 than humans could do is bollocks of the higest order.
Volcanoes release 130 - 230 million tonnes of CO2 a year into the atmosphere on average. Emissions by human sources amount to 22 billion tonnes. [ Source (http://lift.wvlc.lib.wv.us/wvfema/Library/Volcano/Volcanic%20Hazards%20Gases.htm) ]
Any fool can see which number is bigger so quite why people keep claiming that volcanoes put out more CO2 without bothering to do some basic research on the net is quite beyond me.
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Hmmmm maybe it's time to leave Port Charlotte....
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Originally posted by Falcon
Hmmmm maybe it's time to leave Port Charlotte....
YA THINK??? JK, just pay attention to your local EMA, and hurrciane advisories. They predict that Wilma will move into Mexico and weaken alot, but with all the other predictions about this storm, take with some salt.:nod:
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Just one last post to set the record straight, and then I'm dropping the subject. My thermodynamics professor didn't mention volcanoes at all; what I said was a statistic that I had heard referenced elsewhere. For all I know, they were talking about a certain super-eruption in the past, like the event that created the Yellowstone calderra; I don't really have any information. If it was incorrect, then I apologize for using it. He also didn't mention global dimming or methane hydrate in his discussion; it was was more of a cursory overview of the global carbon dioxide cycle and recent climactic changes that wasn't part of the actual curriculum of the class. From what I understand, global dimming really isn't widely understood as of right now, and we're not sure of all of the specifics about how/when methane hydrate could be released; his talk was based on statistics relating to climactic data. (Interestingly enough, when Googling about for information on methane hydrate, I found several sources suggesting that there are some who are trying to determine how it could possibly be mined as an energy source.) At any rate, that's the last word for me on the matter.
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I actually recognized the reference of this thread.
I'm getting old.
Damn. I just said 'I'm getting old'.
I'm getting old... :p
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Originally posted by Mongoose
Just one last post to set the record straight, and then I'm dropping the subject. My thermodynamics professor didn't mention volcanoes at all; what I said was a statistic that I had heard referenced elsewhere. For all I know, they were talking about a certain super-eruption in the past, like the event that created the Yellowstone calderra; I don't really have any information. If it was incorrect, then I apologize for using it.
It's incorrect. The last supervolcanic erruption actually did come quite close to wiping us out but it was because the world got too cold not too warm.
It's basically the same thing that causes a nuclear winter. Clouds of soot block out the sun and everything gets colder as a result.
Originally posted by Mongoose
He also didn't mention global dimming or methane hydrate in his discussion; it was was more of a cursory overview of the global carbon dioxide cycle and recent climactic changes that wasn't part of the actual curriculum of the class.
Then he's missing a rather major part of the equation there. Global dimming is the main reason why we haven't seen much sharper temperature rises.
Originally posted by Mongoose
From what I understand, global dimming really isn't widely understood as of right now, and we're not sure of all of the specifics about how/when methane hydrate could be released; his talk was based on statistics relating to climactic data.
Global dimming is relatively new as a term but the science behind it is pretty old. We've known for ages that particulate matter could block out the sun and make the world colder. It's simply that no one had realised how big an effect this was still having now.
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Mexico is getting shreaded right now, as Wilma has stalled of shore, but it is close enough to put half of it's eyewall on shore. Those poor people.:sigh:
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Originally posted by karajorma
It's incorrect. The last supervolcanic erruption actually did come quite close to wiping us out but it was because the world got too cold not too warm.
It's basically the same thing that causes a nuclear winter. Clouds of soot block out the sun and everything gets colder as a result.
Yeah, the Toba supervolcano 74,000 years ago in Sumatra. It's believed it wiped out all but a few thousand people; it's believed to have caused between 3-4C cooling. Apparently, Toba was IE7 on the 0-8 eruption scale. Yellowstones last eruption, 2.1 million years ago is classed as an IE8 - ten times that of Toba.
Scary stuff, especially as it's been calculated Yellowstone erupts in 600,000 year cycles and thus could be 'due' (in a geological timescale, which could mean decades, centuries or longer from now). Assuming the cycle is a constant one.
Originally posted by karajorma
Then he's missing a rather major part of the equation there. Global dimming is the main reason why we haven't seen much sharper temperature rises.
Global dimming is relatively new as a term but the science behind it is pretty old. We've known for ages that particulate matter could block out the sun and make the world colder. It's simply that no one had realised how big an effect this was still having now.
Just an example of global dimmings effects, IIRc the trails of air traffic have a measurable affect. When all air traffic was grounded at 9/11 - the only time this experiment could be carried out - and air contrails dissappeared, the average cold/hot variation in temperature in the US rose by 1.1C. (I've read 5 degrees in heavy air traffic regions, but that didn't have F/C given)
Global dimming is, I think, something that has been neglected in media and educational coverage; I only read of (the details of) it fairly recently. From what I know, the rate of increase in global temperature is less than expected from the rise in greenhouse gases - global dimming is the explanation, and it means we (well, some people) probably have been underestimating the problem significantly.
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Originally posted by WeatherOp
Mexico is getting shreaded right now, as Wilma has stalled of shore, but it is close enough to put half of it's eyewall on shore. Those poor people.:sigh:
Wow, you just put a fairy-tale spin on everything, don't ya :p.
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Well, they said it's expected to get fairly small when it gets there, the only problem being that it is just too damn slow, so it'll sit over land longer than normal hurricanes.
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Just heard about a ranger telling people in a trailer park in the Florida Keys to evacuate, but they refused. So then he told them fine, but go get a permanent marker and write your name and social security number on your forehead, arm, and leg, so that we can identify your bodies when this is over.
They left.
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fear is a potent weapon.....
EDIT:
while it's is unclear exactly at what point things would become irreversalbe (technology has gone a lonbg way and humanity might be capable of cooling the Earth a bit), but the problem is by the time the damage is repaired (IF it can be repaired at all that is) thousands and thousands of people will die due to more violent climate changes...not to mention entire plant and animal species will be gone forever - and that's something you can't repair.
the problem is that the consuquences and damage a global climate change and pollution can do are fa bigger and broader than most people think.
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By irreversable they simply mean that cutting man made CO2 releases would do nothing to stop the rise in temperature because other natural processes (methane hydrate release, less reflection from the polar ice caps etc) would already be large enough to continue the global warming trend.
Of course mankind can take steps to cancel out global warming even after that point has been reached. Planting enormous numbers of trees and then burying the ful grown ones would remove huge quanities of greenhouse gases. Building a giant mirror in space to make sure less light reached Earth is another.
The problem is that no one thinks that it's economical to do that now. Once the trend has become irreversable they'll be even more greenhouses gases to remove so it will be harder.
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Wilma has now moved into the GOM, serveral sources say, that alot of villages are gone, and Cozumel is heavily damaged.
Wilma will countinue to move over water, and most likely will restrengthen, possibly reaching Cat.4 status, before possibly weakening to Cat.2 or Cat.3 before landfall in Florida.
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GOM?
*should probably Google it*
EDIT: Duh. Gulf of Mexico. :D
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Wilma is heading towards Florida at over 15mph. It's winds have rose to 110mph, making Wilma a Strong Cat.2 hurricane. It is expected for Wilma to easily become a Cat.3, or possibly more. Before it slams Florida.:sigh:
As I have been afaid of, the sheer that hey forecasted never did come to pass. And acording to sources, only 20% of the keys 78,000 residents have evacuated. This has the makings of another Disaster.:(
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Wilma slams into Florida as a strong Ca.t3 hurricane with winds over 125mph. They are reporting alot of damage in eastern Florida, and alot of power outages. More into soon.
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Originally posted by WeatherOp
And acording to sources, only 20% of the keys 78,000 residents have evacuated. This has the makings of another Disaster.:(
Have to say,those who wilfully ignored mandatory evacuation notices (rather than those who for various reasons were unable to evacuate, etc) were kind of asking for it.
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Besides losing my power for a few hours, it was nice and breezy in Port Charlotte...
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Wilma regains Cat.3 status as it speeds away, winds 120mph, moving at 37mph. It is epected to stay over water, but still help bring rain to the NorthEast. The it will turn extratropical, and we can say goodbye.
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Wilma strengthens more as it races off, now with winds of 125mph, racing Northeast at 38mph. And acording to satelitte, it is slowly becoming Extratropical.
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Great, more rain... As if we don't have enough of it already. It has been rain rain rain for almost a goddamn month now. <<;
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Seriously. I can't wait to see how much snow we're going to get this winter up here in the northeast. :doubt: :sigh:
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Originally posted by Raa
Seriously. I can't wait to see how much snow we're going to get this winter up here in the northeast. :doubt: :sigh:
I want it, send it down here.:D
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Originally posted by Raa
Seriously. I can't wait to see how much snow we're going to get this winter up here in the northeast. :doubt: :sigh:
Pansy.
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Ah. I'm reminded again why I stopped visiting here so frequently. :doubt:
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Originally posted by Raa
Seriously. I can't wait to see how much snow we're going to get this winter up here in the northeast. :doubt: :sigh:
Throw some o' that stuff my way too:D
I like snow.
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While you're giving it away, I'll take 6 inches at least three times this winter. Preferably all between November and early January.
:D
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For me, there is nothing darker, nothing bleaker, nothing more conducive to wrist-slitting than a New England winter. Ice, ice, and more ice. Everything looks like the end of a nuclear war. Dig stuff out of the ice, oh hey, guess what: Gotta do it again the next morning. And then later comes the slush. Puddle after puddle of brown, muddy, slushy water with soggy pieces of paper floating in it. My blood circulation dies as soon as it drops to 50 degrees, and my hands are purple from November until late May. I just lie comatose next to the window in the evening and set my Gregorian chants on repeat while the sun sets at frigging FOUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
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Originally posted by Raa
Ah. I'm reminded again why I stopped visiting here so frequently. :doubt:
I was kidding. Did the lack of smiley throw you off?
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Originally posted by Ford Prefect
For me, there is nothing darker, nothing bleaker, nothing more conducive to wrist-slitting than a New England winter. Ice, ice, and more ice. Everything looks like the end of a nuclear war. Dig stuff out of the ice, oh hey, guess what: Gotta do it again the next morning. And then later comes the slush. Puddle after puddle of brown, muddy, slushy water with soggy pieces of paper floating in it. My blood circulation dies as soon as it drops to 50 degrees, and my hands are purple from November until late May. I just lie comatose next to the window in the evening and set my Gregorian chants on repeat while the sun sets at frigging FOUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
Sounds like July in Dundee.
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And shes gone, Wilma is turning Exratropical over the north atlantic, however attention turns to the Carribean again as a TD could form over the next day or so.
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For me, there is nothing darker, nothing bleaker, nothing more conducive to wrist-slitting than a New England winter. Ice, ice, and more ice. Everything looks like the end of a nuclear war. Dig stuff out of the ice, oh hey, guess what: Gotta do it again the next morning. And then later comes the slush. Puddle after puddle of brown, muddy, slushy water with soggy pieces of paper floating in it. My blood circulation dies as soon as it drops to 50 degrees, and my hands are purple from November until late May. I just lie comatose next to the window in the evening and set my Gregorian chants on repeat while the sun sets at frigging FOUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
I love exactly that kind of weather. :D It's not like that very often here though. :(
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Originally posted by WeatherOp
And shes gone, Wilma is turning Exratropical over the north atlantic, however attention turns to the Carribean again as a TD could form over the next day or so.
Kerry and his swift boat have saved us!
Or is this Bush's evil fundie-powers preparing to strike a blow against the Blue states?
Stay tuned!
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Originally posted by StratComm
While you're giving it away, I'll take 6 inches at least three times this winter. Preferably all between November and early January.
:D
One way of passing those cold winter months....
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Ooh, matron!
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Originally posted by Shrike
Kerry and his swift boat have saved us!
Or is this Bush's evil fundie-powers preparing to strike a blow against the Blue states?
Stay tuned!
You pop up for the weirdest things...
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I have 27 relatives living near Fort Lauderdale, and I just talked to them all. Seems they all won't have power for 4 weeks, are stuck eating Chinese every freakin' night, and none of their houses escaped damage. It's not that serious, and they are all alright :), although I can't imagine what the rest of the area must be like :(. Hopefully things have some degree of normality by the time I get there after Christmas.
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Originally posted by Trayus
I have 27 relatives living near Fort Lauderdale, and I just talked to them all. Seems they all won't have power for 4 weeks, are stuck eating Chinese every freakin' night, and none of their houses escaped damage. It's not that serious, and they are all alright :), although I can't imagine what the rest of the area must be like :(. Hopefully things have some degree of normality by the time I get there after Christmas.
Yes that is some of the good news I've herd, what damage I have herd of is Minor-to moderate, as in no cleaned off houses like in Charly.
Also they was only 4 deaths in Florida, that could have been massive is the storm had reached Cat.4 strength and ran over the keys.
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I don't know, the keys are pretty hardened against hurricanes as far as coastal regions go. Some deaths are of course inevitable when the population disregards the evacuation order, but all places are not equal in terms of disaster preparedness. A concrete and steel condo building isn't going to fare as poorly against Hurricane-forced winds and flooding as a 50+ year old brick building or a mobile home. And as much as I hate to say it, the deep South, gulf coast area (Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana) are at about the bottom of the list when it comes to that. That's why where a Hurricane hits has as much bearing on how costly it is in terms of human life as how strong it is.
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Originally posted by Flipside
One way of passing those cold winter months....
:wakka:
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Yeah, board maturity levels have plummited in recent days :rolleyes:
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Originally posted by StratComm
I don't know, the keys are pretty hardened against hurricanes as far as coastal regions go. Some deaths are of course inevitable when the population disregards the evacuation order, but all places are not equal in terms of disaster preparedness. A concrete and steel condo building isn't going to fare as poorly against Hurricane-forced winds and flooding as a 50+ year old brick building or a mobile home. And as much as I hate to say it, the deep South, gulf coast area (Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana) are at about the bottom of the list when it comes to that. That's why where a Hurricane hits has as much bearing on how costly it is in terms of human life as how strong it is.
I agree with you fully, thats the reason I noted the keys, as I posted before Wilma hit Florida, get this, over 80% of the keys 78,000 people stayed put. Stupid or what.
I think the highest point there is just over 11 feet. And no matter what a 20 foot surge is gonna obliterate all but the strongest structures.
But, about the South you are correct, southern Florida will take the strongest hurricanes since their houses are built to code atleast 120mph winds, and thats why damage wasn't extreme in Wilma.
Charly hit farther north, and why regular houses got damaged, moblie homes were just cleaned off.
And, in turn put Wilma into Georgia or Alabama, moving at over 30mph, and your gonna have a disaster.
Hurricanes cause the damage, people cause the disaster. As in Kat, nearly all of those people cold have got out, but they stayed put, and it got e'm.
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Originally posted by Sandwich
You pop up for the weirdest things...
Bah. You have no music in your soul. :p
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I.... I have no comeback to that. :o
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Originally posted by StratComm
Yeah, board maturity levels have plummited in recent days :rolleyes:
Oh come on :rolleyes: you say you want 6 inches 3 times in 4 months and don't expect a response?
Personally, I'd say the maturity hasn't plummeted, it's simply that far too many people on this board take themselves far far too seriously :P
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Since the post it was responding to was talking about snow, why on earth would it merit such a response? I mean, once you've seen one sex joke you've seen them all, and that was CLEARLY not what I was refering to.
Thus yeah, I consider this tangent to be very much along the lines of the "it looks like a dick" comments that crop up without merit in the modding forum.
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Possibly because people with a sense of humour would see the funny side of it, and possess enough savvy to realise that I knew exactly what I was talking about and realise it was a joke.
And I didn't mention penises or dicks, you've added them with your own imagination.
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I'm saddened to say that as one of the more hornier, perverts here, I didn't catch that joke. :(
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I'm not saying anything. :shaking:
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He's a Heretic!!!!!