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Off-Topic Discussion => General Discussion => Topic started by: Kosh on May 01, 2008, 08:41:45 pm

Title: Innovation coming to an end?
Post by: Kosh on May 01, 2008, 08:41:45 pm
No, that's not what I believe, but this is something I found on another forum and I'm interested in some different perspectives:

Quote
Even the net was developed way back in the 1960s. And 95% of it today is used for porn. So I can't say even the net is really a shining example of technological innovation.

You should read these articles, particularly the first. A Pentagon physicist did a very thorough study that shows tech innovation peaked a long time ago. Most of the recent developments either:

A) don't contribute very much to human well-being or

B) are glorified distractions (IPODs and such) or

C) so expensive they may as well not exist as they are beyond the reach of all but maybe 1/10th of 1% of the world's population:

http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn7616
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,1997287,00.html


Personally, I this isn't really accurate, but am I alone in thinking that?
Title: Re: Innovation coming to an end?
Post by: blowfish on May 01, 2008, 08:55:39 pm
B) Glorified distractions, or "entertainment" is a very important part of technology and innovation.

C) Stuff comes down in price over time.

I really just don't think we've stopped innovating.  Granted, there hasn't been as much research into emerging technology as many of us would like, but we are still innovating.
Title: Re: Innovation coming to an end?
Post by: Mefustae on May 01, 2008, 08:58:22 pm
It's not innovation coming to an end, but merely a society that tends to stunt innovation. I mean, the bureaucracy involved in any major endeavor these days is staggering, the patent system alone is doing some pretty heavy damage to any form of free invention and discovery.

Anyway, the post there is complete bull****. Bloke's completely back-asswards in more ways than one. The articles make for interesting reads, but the poster is a ****ing chimp.
Title: Re: Innovation coming to an end?
Post by: S-99 on May 02, 2008, 08:55:00 am
innovation has lead to bigwetasses.
It's one of the wierdest addresses i've seen on the net. There's others, most likely sitting in your block banner/ads settings. There's also another innovation of the net. Photoshop/gimping attractive celebrities heads into porn photos.

You should all do yourself a favor and have a great laugh at the last innovation by googling "fart hammer". Talk about odd. There's also googling "blumpkin" and "ballcuzi".

The net will only get worse :yes:
Title: Re: Innovation coming to an end?
Post by: castor on May 02, 2008, 11:36:39 am
Well, we have about 100 000 years of history and a few billion human lives behind us. Maybe its not so easy to come up with fresh _grand_ ideas anymore?
I think the advancements in future will be less and less by individual people, and more and more due to large scale efforts put forward by big communities (on which we are not too good at this time, even though there are heaps of people around).

I mean, what would you need to "invent" today to have an effect of similar scale than Edison (or whoever it was) had with his light bulb? The unified field theory? Tough, tough...
Title: Re: Innovation coming to an end?
Post by: Kosh on May 02, 2008, 12:31:02 pm
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I mean, what would you need to "invent" today to have an effect of similar scale than Edison (or whoever it was) had with his light bulb? The unified field theory? Tough, tough...


Indeed, but I but is what happens when your technology level is higher and devices keep getting more and more sophisticated. I liken to comparing the days when one person to write an entire game engine or OS to now, where everything requires teams working together (or on individual sections).
Title: Re: Innovation coming to an end?
Post by: Flipside on May 02, 2008, 01:42:30 pm
Thing is, there are no 'obvious' things to achieve any more, the basic human needs for light, heat and food are pretty much met in the West, the scientific knowledge of things such as astronomy and physics have advanced to the point where the layman can barely understand them, thus they lose interest.

There is still plenty of innovation going on, but people are looking in the wrong places, innovation always happens where it is needed, these days a lot of innovation is taking place in third world countries with regards to water reclamation, plant cross-breeding etc.

Europe is about to launch an Ion-Jet driven satellite that will actually orbit low enough to experience a minute degree of atmospheric drag, it's job is to create a gravitic map of the planet. That's pretty spectacular but it'll pass un-noticed by most of us unless something unfortunate happens to it, these days it's the only time half the public pay attention.

So, in my opinion, innovation is alive and kicking, not at Microsoft, where people go home to their air-conditioning, ready meals and armchair, but either in areas that the layman cannot understand what the innovation is, or in areas where it's a question of being creative or starving to death.
Title: Re: Innovation coming to an end?
Post by: castor on May 02, 2008, 01:51:29 pm
Indeed, but I but is what happens when your technology level is higher and devices keep getting more and more sophisticated.
Yes, its like trying to approach the speed of light, always getting harder and harder...
But will it too, eventually, become impossible, i.e. is there going to be a certain level of abstraction beyond which no human mind may reach its grasp  :nervous:
Title: Re: Innovation coming to an end?
Post by: IceFire on May 02, 2008, 05:15:04 pm
HP just announced that their R&D group has perfected the "memrister" (I think I got that right) which is a cross between a transistor and traditional memory.  Has the advantages of DRAM with the advantages of non-volatile memory (like Flash) in one.  Potentially a revolutionary technology for computing unless I've missed something.

Innovation and discovery are happening all of the time...we're actually somewhat acclimatized to all of the advances. But they are usually small advances.  We have some huge advances still to come in the areas of energy generation and only now is the impetus on developing those.  We've had the ideas for a long time but not the ability to achieve them...but those days are closer and closer. Most innovation is incremental...the big discoveries of the 20th century were based on work done in previous centuries.
Title: Re: Innovation coming to an end?
Post by: Retsof on May 02, 2008, 09:22:10 pm
Now if we can just get AI right.  Can you imagine actually conversing with your wingmen.  (Of course, that leads to various unpleasant emotions when one dies and you forgot to back him/her up.)
Title: Re: Innovation coming to an end?
Post by: Nuke on May 03, 2008, 02:24:50 am
Thing is, there are no 'obvious' things to achieve any more, the basic human needs for light, heat and food are pretty much met in the West, the scientific knowledge of things such as astronomy and physics have advanced to the point where the layman can barely understand them, thus they lose interest.

There is still plenty of innovation going on, but people are looking in the wrong places, innovation always happens where it is needed, these days a lot of innovation is taking place in third world countries with regards to water reclamation, plant cross-breeding etc.

Europe is about to launch an Ion-Jet driven satellite that will actually orbit low enough to experience a minute degree of atmospheric drag, it's job is to create a gravitic map of the planet. That's pretty spectacular but it'll pass un-noticed by most of us unless something unfortunate happens to it, these days it's the only time half the public pay attention.

So, in my opinion, innovation is alive and kicking, not at Microsoft, where people go home to their air-conditioning, ready meals and armchair, but either in areas that the layman cannot understand what the innovation is, or in areas where it's a question of being creative or starving to death.

i can agree with this. innovation is usually a product of need. we in the west need very little. i may be considered poor by american standards, yet i have money to eat, i have shelter, and i live in ample luxury. theres not much that i need, just a bunch of stuff i want. many people here who come up with an invention are seeking personal wealth, not betterment of the species. people in the 3rd world tend to want the latter and are willing to work for it.
Title: Re: Innovation coming to an end?
Post by: achtung on May 03, 2008, 03:53:13 am
I just know I'm glad to see the space race picking up again.  I hope to see that drive some interesting innovation.
Title: Re: Innovation coming to an end?
Post by: Kosh on May 03, 2008, 07:12:42 am
I just know I'm glad to see the space race picking up again.  I hope to see that drive some interesting innovation.

We never would have gone to the moon the first time if it wasn't for the Soviets, and after we went there a couple of times nobody cared anymore. The result: our space program stagnated and even went backwards to a degree until now, only after another country says they want to go the moon.


EDIT: And NASA is having enormous trouble getting their Saturn V copycat to work, combining that with public apathy and funding problems I'm not seeing much hope at the moment.

EDIT2:
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many people here who come up with an invention are seeking personal wealth, not betterment of the species.

Yes and that's exactly the problem. The US had an opportunity after the Soviet Union collapsed to turn its attention towards advancing science, innovation, and technology for the better of the species, but by and large we didn't do that. I guess running the world was more important.  :doubt:
Title: Re: Innovation coming to an end?
Post by: DeepSpace9er on May 03, 2008, 09:30:48 am
I think this guy is talking about life changing innovations like the automobile or the airplane, or even running water and electricity. Problem is, our lives are just peachy now so innovations of that magnitude will be much harder and more expensive to achieve, and they are not well known either. I guess instant global communications would be comparable to electricity.
Title: Re: Innovation coming to an end?
Post by: Admiral_Stones on May 04, 2008, 07:51:07 am
I just know I'm glad to see the space race picking up again.  I hope to see that drive some interesting innovation.

We never would have gone to the moon the first time if it wasn't for the Soviets, and after we went there a couple of times nobody cared anymore. The result: our space program stagnated and even went backwards to a degree until now, only after another country says they want to go the moon.


EDIT: And NASA is having enormous trouble getting their Saturn V copycat to work, combining that with public apathy and funding problems I'm not seeing much hope at the moment.

EDIT2:
Quote
many people here who come up with an invention are seeking personal wealth, not betterment of the species.

Yes and that's exactly the problem. The US had an opportunity after the Soviet Union collapsed to turn its attention towards advancing science, innovation, and technology for the better of the species, but by and large we didn't do that. I guess running the world was more important.  :doubt:

The question is, did the NASA land on the moon *DUM DUM DUM conspiracytheoryyay!*?
Title: Re: Innovation coming to an end?
Post by: Kosh on May 04, 2008, 09:15:44 am
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The question is, did the NASA land on the moon *DUM DUM DUM conspiracytheoryyay!*?


My father was a technician for Boeing who was contracted to help build the Saturn V rockets. I'm pretty sure we went there.
Title: Re: Innovation coming to an end?
Post by: Maniax on May 04, 2008, 10:19:39 am
Just wanted to add that there seems to be a tremendous amount of innovation happening in the medical sciences, and I don't see it slowing down any time soon.
Title: Re: Innovation coming to an end?
Post by: Nuke on May 04, 2008, 03:52:04 pm
medical innovation just makes it more expensive for doctors to get anything done. alot of quick fix drugs that don't work. lot of expensive mri scans that patients cant afford, and im not even gonna start with mental health.
Title: Re: Innovation coming to an end?
Post by: SadisticSid on May 04, 2008, 05:58:15 pm
Innovation has taken a different direction to the past fifty or so years. Most of the research that's going on today is in the field of biogenics, digital technology and energy, all of which are largely theoretical and have no immediate, visible benefit to joe public. Funnily enough though these are what humanity is begging for right now - better medicine and readily available food, better computers and broadband links, and enough long term fuel and environmental longevity to continue their daily existence.
Title: Re: Innovation coming to an end?
Post by: blackhole on May 04, 2008, 08:57:50 pm
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But will it too, eventually, become impossible, i.e. is there going to be a certain level of abstraction beyond which no human mind may reach its grasp

Humans are intelligent enough that we will eventually figure out how to expand the capabilities of our own brains, and therefore break the only limitation that we could possibly encounter.
Title: Re: Innovation coming to an end?
Post by: McMad on May 05, 2008, 01:45:30 am
Innovation has taken a different direction to the past fifty or so years.
I agree totally with this. It's not so much that there is no innovation, it's just that people aren't as aware of it. To use your example of energy, there's a nuclear fusion plant being built in the E.U. called ITER. On their website they say: "Fusion is the energy source of the sun and the stars. On earth, fusion research is aimed at demonstrating that this energy source can be used to produce electricity in a safe and environmentally benign way, with abundant fuel resources, to meet the needs of a growing world population." Sounds pretty important stuff to me, but how many people have actually heard of it? :confused:
Title: Re: Innovation coming to an end?
Post by: castor on May 05, 2008, 11:37:00 am
Humans are intelligent enough that we will eventually figure out how to expand the capabilities of our own brains, and therefore break the only limitation that we could possibly encounter.
I like that idea.
Yet the universe appears to me like its building "blocks" would be somehow infinitely complex/recursive.
Also, it bothers me a bit that the brains need to be part of the universe :D Like, to understand the ultimate complexity of the universe, do you need to be even more complex than the universe? (luckily, there are plenty of woman physicists out there  ;) )