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Off-Topic Discussion => General Discussion => Topic started by: Kosh on January 01, 2009, 01:39:28 am

Title: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: Kosh on January 01, 2009, 01:39:28 am
http://news.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=08/12/31/2248210


Ka-Boom?
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: Grimper on January 01, 2009, 01:48:22 am
I've seen docos about yellowstone, and supposedly the explosion will be bigger than than Krakatoa.
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: Polpolion on January 01, 2009, 02:29:44 am
Old news; saw this on a documentary on PBS years ago. Pretty interesting, though.
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: ssmit132 on January 01, 2009, 03:06:42 am
I've seen docos about yellowstone, and supposedly the explosion will be bigger than than Krakatoa.

How bigger than Krakatoa, then?

And anyway, we'll only know what it'll be like if (when) it happens. Which I wouldn't be surprised if it did. :nervous: At least we're the other side of the Pacific Ocean.

EDIT: Proximity is not strictly a measure for survivability:
Quote from: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supervolcano">Wikipedia</a>
The Lake Toba eruption plunged the Earth into a volcanic winter, eradicating an estimated 60%[6][7][8][9][10] of the human population (although humans managed to survive, even in the vicinity of the volcano[11]), and was responsible for the formation of sulfuric acid in the atmosphere.
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: achtung on January 01, 2009, 03:20:38 am
Quote
nah, it won't quite be that bad. most predictions expect the immediate danger zone to have a radius of 1000-1600km, with pumice & ash deposit probably covering all of California and most of the Midwest (http://www.tulane.edu/~sanelson/images/yellowstoneash.gif). but rather than being burned, most deaths/injuries will likely be caused by ash inhalation.

luckily, modern humans have the benefit of science and technology.given enough warning, most people within range of the volcanic
explosion and subsequent lava/pyroclastic flow (70,000 to 100,000+ individuals by some estimates) can be evacuated beforehand. everyone else will simply have to stay in doors for a couple of days before they too can be evacuated outside of the ash cover area.

the USGS seems pretty confident that the YVO monitoring program will detect any premonitory indicators (such as emissions of magmatic gases) of any such impending disaster. and studies indicate that, if there is a volcanic eruption, it is not likely to be a caldera-forming supervolcanic eruption due to insufficient rhyolitic magma-storage to sustain such an event.

in the event that a caldera-forming eruption takes place, then yes the ash will probably circle the entire globe and lower the temperature in the lower atmosphere for a few years, and that can have a severe impact on the ecology of the planet. but it's certainly survivable. and the chances of such an event actually occurring is still statistically insignificant--contrary to what is often reported, are are not "overdue" for a supervolcanic eruption. (the mean interval between such eruptions is 710,000 years, not 600,000 years.)

if others are interested, you can read the USGS's report on the Preliminary Assessment of Volcanic and Hydrothermal Hazards in Yellowstone National Park and Vicinity (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1071/) (the actual report is in PDF format).

From a comment on slashdot by lysergic.acid.

Sounds much more sensible to me.
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: karajorma on January 01, 2009, 03:36:59 am
http://news.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=08/12/31/2248210


Ka-Boom?

Doubt it. Earthquakes in the area aren't exactly uncommon and there have been big quakes in the exact same place in the last 50 years.

Sooner or later Yellowstone probably will blow again but I'm not going to worry about an even that happens every half million years until the scientists start saying they think it's likely.
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: BloodEagle on January 01, 2009, 04:20:03 am
In unrelated news, most dams in the United States are in a state of advanced decay.

Don't worry about that impending disaster, though.
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: Black Wolf on January 01, 2009, 04:21:57 am
I've seen docos about yellowstone, and supposedly the explosion will be bigger than than Krakatoa.

How bigger than Krakatoa, then?

Incomparably bigger. Orders of magnitude. Volcanoes get classified by scale equivalence of ejecta (At solid igneous densities, so SGs of around 3). Krakatoa, if my shoddy memory of second year is any good, ejected 20 or so cubic km (equivalent). Supervolcanoes the size of Yellowstone will drop 500 to a thousand, maybe more. The last properly big one from there left a layer of tuff (volcanic ash - essentially you can think of it as a volcanically derived igneous sediment) which is one of the best dating strata for the last million years in the US becasue it's more or less everywhere.

Geology is trying to kill you all over the world though, so don't get too worked up about this. There are lots of other scary plaqces to worry about :D Fortunately, almost none of them are in Australia. :D
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: Grimper on January 01, 2009, 06:26:46 am
Ahhhh..don't you just love living in Aus?

Oh and to all you foreigners...we get to ride in kangaroos. I also have a pet croc, which unfortunately ate my Koala.
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: ssmit132 on January 01, 2009, 06:50:10 am
Oh and to all you foreigners...we get to ride in kangaroos.
Don't spread false advertising!
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: Grimper on January 01, 2009, 07:58:55 am
Aw can't I enjoy our stereotype for a minute?
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: Mars on January 01, 2009, 12:24:15 pm
As someone living in the first major city to be destroyed if and when it does blow . . . I choose to ignore this.
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: Mongoose on January 01, 2009, 01:53:42 pm
Geology is trying to kill you all over the world though, so don't get too worked up about this. There are lots of other scary plaqces to worry about :D Fortunately, almost none of them are in Australia. :D
Yeah, but we don't have killer snakes and stingrays and koalas swarming all over the place, thirsty for our blood. :p
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: Nuclear1 on January 01, 2009, 02:11:04 pm
As long as it doesn't blow between now and June 09, I'm fine with it. Will never be in in the western states after that. :p
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: captain-custard on January 01, 2009, 02:24:40 pm
Ahhhh..don't you just love living in Aus?

Oh and to all you foreigners...we get to ride in kangaroos. I also have a pet croc, which unfortunately ate my Koala.



damn roo rootin  tankgirl aussies, but where the geology isn't scary the spiders and snakes make up for it , and if thats not enough , you just lost at home .....(ok for the first time in a million years but you still lost)   happy new year mate!
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: Flipside on January 01, 2009, 02:36:41 pm

How bigger than Krakatoa, then?



Put it this way, you know the states around Ohio have several feet of ash-rich top-soil?

That was from last time.
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: Retsof on January 01, 2009, 03:17:07 pm
As someone living in the first major city to be destroyed if and when it does blow . . . I choose to ignore this.
Right there with ya.
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: Scuddie on January 01, 2009, 04:14:26 pm
How bigger than Krakatoa, then?
Krakatoa doesn't have the pressure to cause a massive rupture in the lithosphere.  Yellowstone does.

To put it into context, imagine a break in the North American continent several miles wide, and spans from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico.  That's what Yellowstone can do.
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: Spicious on January 01, 2009, 05:06:31 pm
Yeah, but we don't have killer snakes and stingrays and koalas swarming all over the place, thirsty for our blood. :p
How could you forget the spiders (and the kangaroos for that matter)?
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: Flipside on January 01, 2009, 05:13:00 pm
It's the sheep you really have to look out for, turn your back for a second... ;)

Oh, and talking of Geological trouble, apparently, as London is expanding so quickly, it's actually causing the local area to sink under its weight, thus increasing flood-risks :D
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: Spicious on January 01, 2009, 05:18:37 pm
You're thinking of New Zealand.
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: Flipside on January 01, 2009, 05:35:54 pm
Actually, Australia has a roughly 6/1 Sheep-Human ratio, 120 Million Sheep to NZ's roughly 50 million. Though in fairness, this is balanced out by the size difference. Sheep density is higher in New Zealand, but the number of them is higher in Australia :)
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: FUBAR-BDHR on January 01, 2009, 07:57:05 pm
More likely it's the sheep that have to worry about turning their backs. 
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: Flipside on January 01, 2009, 08:00:10 pm
:lol:

To the inventor of Velcro Boots, this Bud's for you' ;)
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: Grimper on January 02, 2009, 05:49:17 am
damn roo rootin  tankgirl aussies, but where the geology isn't scary the spiders and snakes make up for it , and if thats not enough , you just lost at home .....(ok for the first time in a million years but you still lost)   happy new year mate!

Ugh don't remind me. It was pathetic...ok not pathetic, we tried hard, but still....the myth of aussie invincibility is gone...  :(

Bet there hasn't been any major sports teams in the US that have held a winning streak that long though.
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: Hellstryker on January 02, 2009, 06:11:28 am
It's bound to happen sooner or later, but;

Quote
nah, it won't quite be that bad. most predictions expect the immediate danger zone to have a radius of 1000-1600km, with pumice & ash deposit probably covering all of California and most of the Midwest (http://www.tulane.edu/~sanelson/images/yellowstoneash.gif). but rather than being burned, most deaths/injuries will likely be caused by ash inhalation.

luckily, modern humans have the benefit of science and technology.given enough warning, most people within range of the volcanic
explosion and subsequent lava/pyroclastic flow (70,000 to 100,000+ individuals by some estimates) can be evacuated beforehand. everyone else will simply have to stay in doors for a couple of days before they too can be evacuated outside of the ash cover area.

the USGS seems pretty confident that the YVO monitoring program will detect any premonitory indicators (such as emissions of magmatic gases) of any such impending disaster. and studies indicate that, if there is a volcanic eruption, it is not likely to be a caldera-forming supervolcanic eruption due to insufficient rhyolitic magma-storage to sustain such an event.

in the event that a caldera-forming eruption takes place, then yes the ash will probably circle the entire globe and lower the temperature in the lower atmosphere for a few years, and that can have a severe impact on the ecology of the planet. but it's certainly survivable. and the chances of such an event actually occurring is still statistically insignificant--contrary to what is often reported, are are not "overdue" for a supervolcanic eruption. (the mean interval between such eruptions is 710,000 years, not 600,000 years.)

if others are interested, you can read the USGS's report on the Preliminary Assessment of Volcanic and Hydrothermal Hazards in Yellowstone National Park and Vicinity (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1071/) (the actual report is in PDF format).

From a comment on slashdot by lysergic.acid.

Sounds much more sensible to me.
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: portej05 on January 02, 2009, 07:19:49 am
Geology is trying to kill you all over the world though, so don't get too worked up about this. There are lots of other scary plaqces to worry about :D Fortunately, almost none of them are in Australia. :D
Yeah, but we don't have killer snakes and stingrays and koalas swarming all over the place, thirsty for our blood. :p

You forgot the drop-bears - one of the bigger things to watch out for when you're outdoors.
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: StarSlayer on January 02, 2009, 12:13:43 pm
Volcanic Winter? Perhaps it and Global Warming will cancel each other out. :P

 Not that a quarter of the North America going kaboom is funny but I couldn't help but think of the Futurama joke.
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: Daniel P on January 02, 2009, 12:34:32 pm
Volcanic Winter? Perhaps it and Global Warming will cancel each other out. :P

 Not that a quarter of the North America going kaboom is funny but I couldn't help but think of the Futurama joke.

No is not funny.
Title: Re: Yellowstone to blow?
Post by: Flipside on January 02, 2009, 04:09:21 pm
Geology is trying to kill you all over the world though, so don't get too worked up about this. There are lots of other scary plaqces to worry about :D Fortunately, almost none of them are in Australia. :D

Yeah, but we don't have killer snakes and stingrays and koalas swarming all over the place, thirsty for our blood. :p

You forgot the drop-bears - one of the bigger things to watch out for when you're outdoors.


Wear a pointy hat, it worked for Rincewind ;)