Hard Light Productions Forums
Off-Topic Discussion => General Discussion => Topic started by: BloodEagle on May 25, 2009, 10:14:32 pm
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I didn't see a thread about this yet, so....
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iURO8fOyWVOA0ytFlaAGuC9F7R9wD98DLHD01
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — The United Nations swiftly condemned North Korea for its test of a powerful nuclear bomb and South Korean announced Tuesday it would join a U.S.-led initiative to intercept ships suspected of spreading weapons of mass destruction.
The U.N. Security Council said the test was a "clear violation" of a 2006 resolution banning North Korea from conducting nuclear development, and that it would start work immediately on a new resolution that could result in even stronger measures.
Russian officials said the nuclear bomb that the North detonated underground Monday was comparable to those that obliterated Hiroshima and Nagasaki, raising fears that the communist country could spread such technology abroad.
In a further sign of the North's mounting standoff with the world, a report said the country was likely preparing to fire short-range missiles Tuesday off its western coast.
[...]
(Polls are gone, go figure)
Ways this could turn out:
- Pissing Contest
- An Oriental NATO (see above)
- Global Thermonuclear War, Let's Play
- <Insert Option Here>
:ick:
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A strange game. The only way to win is not to play.
;)
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The big question is what will all the neighboring countries think/do......
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The bigger question is how does this affect me in any serious way?
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ICBMs in the hands of a state as monumentally fraked up as DPRK? I think there are few scenarios that might affect you.
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My worry is that by the time the UN gets past the "increasingly severe finger-wagging" stage, it will be too late and some idiot is going to start a war.
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I didn't see a thread about this yet, so....
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iURO8fOyWVOA0ytFlaAGuC9F7R9wD98DLHD01
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — The United Nations swiftly condemned North Korea for its test of a powerful nuclear bomb and South Korean announced Tuesday it would join a U.S.-led initiative to intercept ships suspected of spreading weapons of mass destruction.
The U.N. Security Council said the test was a "clear violation" of a 2006 resolution banning North Korea from conducting nuclear development, and that it would start work immediately on a new resolution that could result in even stronger measures.
Russian officials said the nuclear bomb that the North detonated underground Monday was comparable to those that obliterated Hiroshima and Nagasaki, raising fears that the communist country could spread such technology abroad.
In a further sign of the North's mounting standoff with the world, a report said the country was likely preparing to fire short-range missiles Tuesday off its western coast.
[...]
(Polls are gone, go figure)
Ways this could turn out:
- Pissing Contest
- An Oriental NATO (see above)
- Global Thermonuclear War, Let's Play
- <Insert Option Here>
:ick:
1) yes.
2) uhh.. maybe, a NATO in as much as Asian states aside from mostly China thinking the Pongyang gov is pushing it.
3) lol.
An actual nuclear test isn't going to amount to much other than North Korea getting harsher sanctions, yet simulataneously being able to tell the UN Security Council to back up off their jocks. Nukes don't mean global nuclear face melting war anymore, they mean being taken more serious at the UN. Right now the entire strategy for North Korea is going to change completely. It's going to go from giving them incentives to not develop nuclear weapons (which they supposedly weren't... lol) to incentives to disarm, which believe it or not, is an entirely different ballgame. Their offensive nuclear weaponry however, is still relatively "primative" not to mention their lack of viable delivery system to anywhere important. And shooting them at Japan / S. Korea is a pretty obvious suicide pill for the Pongyang government. Strategically, all they gain from this is assurance against a blitzkrieg coalition invasion, which is realistically all they could have asked for.
The real story here is how this obvious series of events will affect negotiations with Iran, who is known to trade in weapons with N. Korea and is basically following the same course only a couple years behind.
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Brilliant! North Korea just blew up their entire nuclear arsenal, so we don't have to worry :P.
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My worry is that by the time the UN gets past the "increasingly severe finger-wagging" stage, it will be too late and some idiot is going to start a war.
China, Russia and USA will most likely find a common tone and issue a stern warning to NK yes I see this very possible indeed
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MY bets are on Alpha 1 and his harbingers
:P
But seriously, why doesn't the UN invade and be done with them. They've been nothing but defiant and now they're starting to become a threat.
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Because they'd shell the **** out of Seoul and kill tens of thousands the second an enemy boot touched their soil? Because they have a one million man standing army? Because last time they tried they were at war for three years without a successful resolution? (Although granted, the situation now is very different to the last Korean war). Because they have nukes and are insane enough to launch them at Tokyo, Seoul and probably Alaska if they get invaded, not to mention nuking invading armies? Because, while their Air Force isn't exactly top notch, they have one of the densest Air Defence Networks in the entire world?
Invading North Korea is an insane idea, nobody's going to do it except as an absolute last ditch, no choice solution (e.g. if they provoked by invading/nuking a neighbour).
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Involving in the development of other countries is not a good idea... you can try to help but eventually it will always turn in a bad thing.
My guess is that UN will do nothing as usual, neighbour nations will play central roles in this one on the other hand... maybe a regional arrangement will arise from this mess.
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Because they'd shell the **** out of Seoul and kill tens of thousands the second an enemy boot touched their soil? Because they have a one million man standing army? Because last time they tried they were at war for three years without a successful resolution? (Although granted, the situation now is very different to the last Korean war). Because they have nukes and are insane enough to launch them at Tokyo, Seoul and probably Alaska if they get invaded, not to mention nuking invading armies? Because, while their Air Force isn't exactly top notch, they have one of the densest Air Defence Networks in the entire world?
Invading North Korea is an insane idea, nobody's going to do it except as an absolute last ditch, no choice solution (e.g. if they provoked by invading/nuking a neighbour).
The artillery tubes and rockets pointed at Seoul are a real problem, and while it might well be a tough nut to crack, the vast majority of their equipment is hopelessly obsolete, half of their tank corps are T-55's. Their air force is relatively small, but most of their fighters are mig-21's, not much of a threat except if you aren't paying attention. Basically they can come out in a storm, but they have no staying power at all. Nukes would change this however, since they could nuke the invading armies.
EDIT: Besides, south korea is no pushover either. Sure they are smaller but they have much better equipment.
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The artillery tubes and rockets pointed at Seoul are a real problem, and while it might well be a tough nut to crack, the vast majority of their equipment is hopelessly obsolete, half of their tank corps are T-55's. Their air force is relatively small, but most of their fighters are mig-21's, not much of a threat except if you aren't paying attention. Basically they can come out in a storm, but they have no staying power at all. Nukes would change this however, since they could nuke the invading armies.
EDIT: Besides, south korea is no pushover either. Sure they are smaller but they have much better equipment.
Oh, no doubt that the invaders would win the war this time around, especially if you assume China and Russia aren't getting involved (at least, not on the DPRKs side), but the civillian and military casualties would be massive, far beyond what would be politically acceptable for any democratically elected government, except when there's no longer any choice at all, i.e. Kim Jong Il shoots first.
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True, but I doubt Kim Jong Il is stupid enough to start launching nukes off. Anybody who has nukes and starts using them usually winds up facing incoming nukes from everyone else on the planet who has one.
In short: if NK was dumb enough to start a nuclear war, NK would probably become a radioactive slag heap soon after.
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True, but I doubt Kim Jong Il is stupid enough to start launching nukes off. Anybody who has nukes and starts using them usually winds up facing incoming nukes from everyone else on the planet who has one.
In short: if NK was dumb enough to start a nuclear war, NK would probably become a radioactive slag heap soon after.
Usually? As in, that's how it's gone down in seven of the last eight nuclear wars? :p
Realistically, you're right. These are bargaining chips more than they are offensive weapons, in real terms. The prospect of the nukes getting fired at anyone is remote, and the prospect of them being fired pre-emptively is even more remote, even given that the general assumption is that Kim Jong Il isn't exactly all there upstairs. Of course, in a military situation, if it started to look like the north were on the verge of losing they might toss out a few token nukes at Seoul, Tokyo etc. That's MAD after all, which is ultimately at the core of the nuclear debate.
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Really? People don't like MAD? I wonder why anybody wouldn't want to have their entire planet nuked into the ground? :P
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I'm not sure why people think testing bombs = zomg NK nuclear war.
Being an unfavorable and diminutive leader doesn't make Kim Jong irrational. If he were a true lunatic, he'd have done something crazy years ago and been over with it. He would have unleashed that solar ion cannon on the Korean DMZ like in James Bond. But he hasn't. Playing against the UN's wishes doesn't make you crazy, though it certainly digs a deeper hole for yourself.
Right now, nuclear weapons only really fulfill two roles for North Korea, as I said. One is to ensure nobody conventionally invades them again. This strategy is pretty sound - I'll randomly cite Israel post-67' as an active example in how nuclear arms can secure relative peace to a state's mainland. Only thing is, other than possible paranoid delusions from the NK regime, you'd need a reason to necessitate the political cost of nukes vs. the final, though arguably negligible security boost from nukes.
Which leads to reason number two - they're looking to share / sell technology to allies. That's why I brought up Iran (again, known diplomatic ties and cooperative efforts in the nuclear program) as well as potentially any other buyer. If they were looking to use the weapons in a direct offensive role, they could sell them on the market. Problem is, nuclear weapons ain't exactly difficult to track and trace. Any attack would more than likely be inevitably traced back to Pongyang which would again result in death.
So you're really only looking at option one, with the real question being "were they simply that paranoid regarding the Bush administration's Axis of Evil rhetoric, or do they have a reason for added defense?"
They won't be firing them off at Japan or South Korea anytime soon, not without a dramatic systemic shift in their favor somehow.
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Israel post-67'
1973 :P.
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Israel post-67'
1973 :P.
No. I meant what I said.
Yom-Kippur was never about invading Israel mainland or "marching to Jerusalem" despite what some patriotic Egyptians would have you believe. The Arabs only ever set foot on periphery territories (The Sinai and the Golan Heights) that while under Israeli occupation, were (and are) marked buffer zones at best. There's a fair argument (among other reasons) that the Arab push wouldn't have gone much further than those zones (if it even could have) because of Israel's nuclear weapons.
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Fair enough.
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A strange game. The only way to win is not to play.
http://www.introversion.co.uk/defcon/home.html
Enjoy. lol. :nervous:
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yay nuckear war, il get the hot dogs and marshmallows
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A lot of the points about North Korea actually using a nuclear weapon on a neighboring state are rendered largely moot by the fact that, at their current levels, it'll take several years' worth of research to master the miniaturization techniques required to mount an effective warhead on a ballistic missile. I'm also fairly certain that any attempt to deliver a crude Little-Boy-esque device via bomber (does NK even have any bombers with that sort of capability?) could be easily detected and neutralized. The same scenario would most likely hold true for any sort of ground invasion of the country, provided the invading forces didn't just decide to waltz up to some sort of ground-based apparatus.
Now, that having been said, I'm of the opinion that the world shouldn't twiddle its thumbs until NK does possess that capability before taking some sort of decisive action or other. Whether it's via intense international pressure finally having some sort of effect, Kim Jong-il finally croaking, or the least desirable option of military action, preventing a state like that from being able to severely threaten its neighbors is imperative.
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It causes me no small amount of concern that a country run by a nutlog posses an arsenal of weapons that could turn my city into a radioactive campfire faster than I could microwave a burrito. Just my $0.02.
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It causes me no small amount of concern that a country run by a nutlog posses an arsenal of weapons that could turn my city into a radioactive campfire faster than I could microwave a burrito. Just my $0.02.
But it can't turn your city into a because there's no delivery system worth a wank.
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But it can't turn your city into a because there's no delivery system worth a wank.
We think that. However, it's somewhat academic. North Korea also has huge chemical and biological arsenals.
Seoul is gone. It's within range of free-flight rockets like the FROG series and even if you can intercept them, you'll never get them all. The city is coated in a cloud of various persistant gas weapons and will not be inhabitable againd for decades. Pusan is gone. Same reason. Japan's Arleigh Burke IIAs and Patriot batteries probably intercept the inbound Nodong and Taepodong warheads. Anything beyond 100 miles from the border with the North is reasonably safe, as then it becomes a ballistic interception issue and South Korea has invested heavily in TBM-intercepting SAMs, as has the US which maintains substantial forces there. Guam is probably safe too, which is about as far as they can realistically reach at this time.
You'll notice a lot of probably's in those sentences. This is intentional. Intercepting a ballistic inbound is still more of an art than a science, and while the SM2 and current models of the Patriot are very capable in that regard, North Korea still has a lot of missiles and a single focused launch is likely to overwhelm the defenses of any one target.
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But it can't turn your city into a because there's no delivery system worth a wank.
We think that. However, it's somewhat academic. North Korea also has huge chemical and biological arsenals.
Seoul is gone. It's within range of free-flight rockets like the FROG series and even if you can intercept them, you'll never get them all. The city is coated in a cloud of various persistant gas weapons and will not be inhabitable againd for decades. Pusan is gone. Same reason. Japan's Arleigh Burke IIAs and Patriot batteries probably intercept the inbound Nodong and Taepodong warheads. Anything beyond 100 miles from the border with the North is reasonably safe, as then it becomes a ballistic interception issue and South Korea has invested heavily in TBM-intercepting SAMs, as has the US which maintains substantial forces there. Guam is probably safe too, which is about as far as they can realistically reach at this time.
You'll notice a lot of probably's in those sentences. This is intentional. Intercepting a ballistic inbound is still more of an art than a science, and while the SM2 and current models of the Patriot are very capable in that regard, North Korea still has a lot of missiles and a single focused launch is likely to overwhelm the defenses of any one target.
It causes me no small amount of concern that a country run by a nutlog posses an arsenal of weapons that could turn my city into a radioactive campfire faster than I could microwave a burrito. Just my $0.02.
OMG THEIR LEADER IS NUTS HE HAS NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND IS GOING TO FIRE THEM AT EVERYONE AS SOON AS HE CAN THATS WHY WE HAVE TO BOMB BOMB BOMB IRAN, BOMB BOMB BOMB IRA --
oh wait...
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And all of the countries of the world continue to sit there with their fingers on the buttons, eying each other.
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And all of the countries of the world continue to sit there with their fingers on the buttons, eying each other.
At least it's better than 20 years ago, when everyone was on fire.
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But it can't turn your city into a because there's no delivery system worth a wank.
We think that. However, it's somewhat academic. North Korea also has huge chemical and biological arsenals.
Seoul is gone. It's within range of free-flight rockets like the FROG series and even if you can intercept them, you'll never get them all. The city is coated in a cloud of various persistant gas weapons and will not be inhabitable againd for decades. Pusan is gone. Same reason. Japan's Arleigh Burke IIAs and Patriot batteries probably intercept the inbound Nodong and Taepodong warheads. Anything beyond 100 miles from the border with the North is reasonably safe, as then it becomes a ballistic interception issue and South Korea has invested heavily in TBM-intercepting SAMs, as has the US which maintains substantial forces there. Guam is probably safe too, which is about as far as they can realistically reach at this time.
You'll notice a lot of probably's in those sentences. This is intentional. Intercepting a ballistic inbound is still more of an art than a science, and while the SM2 and current models of the Patriot are very capable in that regard, North Korea still has a lot of missiles and a single focused launch is likely to overwhelm the defenses of any one target.
So you're saying that Canada is within 100 miles of the North Korean border?
When I said 'your' back there, I meant the specific 'your' not the indefinite.
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You're not even arguing with me anymore. :rolleyes:
And what I meant was that if one could get a nuclear bomb to my city, it would have little trouble turning it into a slag heap.
Anyway, let's say they have a reliable delivery method that can reach anywhere they like, and they pull a pre-emptive strike on the US and South Korea. Everyone invades, Kim Jong-Il panics and goes (even more) nuts. I'm not trying to be a conspiracy theorist, but what if? It's certainly not something to be taken lightly. People have proven time and time again that humans are not to be trusted.
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If that happens, I doubt something as small as a handful of nukes would hit, considering we have (admittedly undazzling) countermeasures...
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You're not even arguing with me anymore. :rolleyes:
And what I meant was that if one could get a nuclear bomb to my city, it would have little trouble turning it into a slag heap.
Anyway, let's say they have a reliable delivery method that can reach anywhere they like, and they pull a pre-emptive strike on the US and South Korea. Everyone invades, Kim Jong-Il panics and goes (even more) nuts. I'm not trying to be a conspiracy theorist, but what if? It's certainly not something to be taken lightly. People have proven time and time again that humans are not to be trusted.
Kim Il-Jong is a nutcase but that doesn't mean he and his generals have thrown short-term pragmatism to the wind. Moreover, preemptive strikes are often launched with the goal of destroying the target's ability to retaliate before it can do so. I know you're just playing Devil's Advocate here, but the DPRK is so far away from being able to neutralize the United States' strategic arsenal it's (not) funny.
That said, I'd certainly be more comfortable if the North Koreans didn't have the bomb. Nonetheless, far out scenarios of nuclear war on the Korean peninsula do not properly contextualize the issue.
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i think this problem can be solved with a good ol fashion assassination...
...with nuclear bullets of course
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So you're saying that Canada is within 100 miles of the North Korean border?
When I said 'your' back there, I meant the specific 'your' not the indefinite.
I don't know where you all live. (And don't much care, usually.)
In any case, no, it's not.
This post is for the education of the masses who think violence is a reasonable option. I grant that's probably beyond KT's ability to discern, but I would hope the general idea is not lost on him (pretty sure it's not), or anyone else, anyways.
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Am I the only one who didn't dismiss the idea of delivering a nuke the slow way?
In trucks, ships, next to a whole bunch of banana or crude vegetable oil under another massive pile of general products. "Smuggled" into a country. Then you rent a building do some renovation, and cement the nuke into the foundations...
...then on a really (nuclear) rainy day, it only takes a (cell-)phone call to bomb any given capital. It's not the damage per-se (it's only gona take out a couple of blocks and set a ragin firestorm in the next couple of blocks)...
...it's the fear that it could be in any block of any city.
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Am I the only one who didn't dismiss the idea of delivering a nuke the slow way?
In trucks, ships, next to a whole bunch of banana or crude vegetable oil under another massive pile of general products. "Smuggled" into a country. Then you rent a building do some renovation, and cement the nuke into the foundations...
Dunno, but I guess you'd need to bring the core in pretty much ready-to-go condition? Might be tough to get it to go critical otherwise.
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You do realize that a (edit) by design small (/edit) nuclear weapon is only a couple of hundred kilograms heavy even in its crude form?
Hardly an "extravagant" weight compared to all the stuff we do haul around.
For the record the minimum weight of an implosion tech plutonium warhead's payload is a mere 10 kg. That is 10 kg of plutonium. You still need explosive to compress it, several parts to shape the explosion's shock wave so on, but still all in all a suitcase bomb isn't entirely far fetched. Granted it will be a "small bomb" (~1 kt range).
A proper bomb still won't be gigantic and definitely within the capabilities of a simply truck to transport.
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Sure. I thought you were speculating about someone smuggling in the payload material in smaller doses, to reduce the effect of being caught.
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you cant bring it into the us in a cargo container, because they do scan those for radiological. youd have to smuggle it in a van full of mexicans or something.
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You do realize that a (edit) by design small (/edit) nuclear weapon is only
(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d9/Davy_Crockett_bomb.jpg)
This big. And that's a selectable yield of 10 or 20 tons (very close to the minimum practical size and yield for a fission warhead) up to 0.5 kilotons
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davy_Crockett_(nuclear_device) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davy_Crockett_(nuclear_device))
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Remember the Alamo.
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You do realize that a (edit) by design small (/edit) nuclear weapon is only
*Snip*
This big. And that's a selectable yield of 10 or 20 tons (very close to the minimum practical size and yield for a fission warhead) up to 0.5 kilotons
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davy_Crockett_(nuclear_device) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davy_Crockett_(nuclear_device))
Following 10+ years of development by some of the greatest minds in the field of nuclear physics. Somehow, I don't see North Korea matching the efforts of the US atomic program anytime soon.
Seriously, this whole thing is so much of a non-threat it's hilarious. The amount of people panicking here should be directly proportional to the number of members from Japan and South Korea, which I believe is approximately dick.
If you live in the US or Europe, you're sooner going to die from 3 consecutive lightning strikes than a North Korean nuclear attack. Seriously, stop panic-mongering.
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I find it especially hard to give a **** about North Korea in light of the fact that the situation in Pakistan is rapidly escalating from "Oh ****" to "Oh ****."
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I thought Kim Jong Il's parody of "Crazy" might be appropriate.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ijSqe4uOqdI