Hard Light Productions Forums
Off-Topic Discussion => General Discussion => Topic started by: Flipside on November 22, 2012, 04:25:58 pm
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20451208
Just like the old boss, it seems :(
I really do feel for Egypt, it's people try so hard to find their own way and get shat on time and time again.
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Here we go again, damn it, it's always some power monger who gets in.
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It's kind of like what happened in Mali. Secular(who, in Mali, were ethno-centric, but still) rebels fight the government and win, only to have their revolution hijacked by religious fanatics. I wonder how Egypt is gonna turn out in the long run, because Muhammed Morsi is of the Muslim Brotherhood, whom the secular forces pretty much see as hijackers of the revolution. But he has to balance his loyalty to them with his commitment to US-Egypt relations in order to keep that foreign aid flowing.
I recommend listening to this: http://www.atheist-experience.com/archive/AtheistExp-2012-10-14.mp3
It's an Egyptian atheist's summary of the secular perception of what happened in Egypt after the revolution, touching on some of the points I mentioned above like the hijacking of the movement, etc.
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This indeed doesn't look good. There's always hope for some improvement though, Egyptians now know that they can get rid of an unwanted ruler, so Morsi should be really careful. Also, Egypt's economy makes a lot on tourism, so scaring rich US and European tourists off isn't a good policy, and both bloody revolutions and religious extremism tend to have this sort of effect.
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Tunisia, Egypt, Gaza down, Syria and Libya on the way, only Jordan and the Saudis to go, Iran ecstatically applauding in the background. Oh, and Afghanistan/Pakistan/Iraq so mired in internal struggles that whether they fall or not, they're down for the count at the moment anyway.
For those wondering, that's the current tally of countries fallen, falling, or about to fall to the Muslim Brotherhood and their Islamist extremist allies, as supported and run by the current government of Iran.
Turkey is up in the air. The new current government leans Islamist, but they also want into the EU and are actually a functioning democracy, so I'm not prepared to call that one yet. And Jordan, for that matter, may surprise me but I doubt the monarchy can hold on long-term, reforms or no.
If I was a member of the Israeli intelligence community these days I think I'd be contemplating retirement to Europe or North America in the next year or so.
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The timing of this is interesting too, the day after the US and Egypt broker the ceasefire in Gaza, I doubt Morsi is unaware of the potential for embarrassing the US by doing this when he did.
The US is left with an awkward choice, either condemn a country currently occupying an important role in the peacemaking process between Israel and Gaza, and endanger that process, or allow Morsi to turn himself into what adds up to a Dictator, either way, it's a situation the US will not be happy to find itself in.
Edit : If I were a conspiracy nut, I'd almost say it was a masterstroke. Hamas attack Israel, Israel retaliate, Egypt makes itself vital to the peace brokering, Morsi uses that influence to establish his coup. You'd almost think it was planned...
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Well, Morsi could have nudged Hamas to attack Israel, but Hamas being what it is, he could've just gotten lucky. Attacking Israel is what Hamas regularly does. Either way, Morsi might not be a good ruler, but he surely is a really good politician. He put US in position in which they can't really call him out on setting himself up as a dictator. Say what you will about Morsi, but that was one heck of a gambit.
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Yeah, my own suspicions lay with a kind of 'directed opportunism', I've been thinking about Morsi's recent history...
In August Morsi visited the Non-Aligned Movement summit and slammed Syria. This earned him many Brownie points with the US and put him in their good books as a 'supporter of Democracy'. Now he has turned the tables, using the position with the US to establish himself into this situation.
If you look at it from a purely tactical point of view, you almost have to stand back and applaud the man.
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why exactly is egypt 'vital' to the peace process in israel? what are they doing that no one else could?
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The US alone could not have brokered the deal, a third party that Hamas would consider as representative of themselves would have to be present as well as the US (who they would consider to represent Israel first and foremost).
Egypt served in that role, being one of the few countries that was run by the Muslim Brotherhood that had a leader who 'seemed' to be towing the US view on Democracy, whilst being noticeably vocal about being on Hamas side during the recent events, so this made both sides happy. It will be extremely hard to find another country that will meet both sides' requirements for trust when brokering a deal.
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why exactly is egypt 'vital' to the peace process in israel? what are they doing that no one else could?
Egypt is the only other country in the usual pan-Arab-kill-Jews alliance that could hope to stand up to Israel militarily or economically. One of the reasons they made the peace treaty under Nasser was that Egyptians were ultimately doing the majority of the fighting and dying in the various Israel-Arab wars, at ruinous cost to the country, while the other nations involved viewed it as a convenient means to kill off politically unreliable citizens.
As long as Egypt refuses to be dragged in, no matter how tough anyone talks the Israeli state is safe and thus much more willing to negotiate.