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General FreeSpace => FreeSpace Discussion => Topic started by: Black Wolf on February 03, 2014, 02:43:19 pm

Title: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Black Wolf on February 03, 2014, 02:43:19 pm
So, to the best of my knowledge, there're no canon figures on the number of Terrans and Vasudans that died during the 14 year war, so I thought the wisdom of the crowd might help me figure it out.

I don't have a particular timeline in mind for the full 14 years, but the assumptions I am making are that the space war was much less a WW2 style full intensity all the time type event, and more a sort of long, medium to low intensity struggle characterized mainly by occasional major offensives by either side, and a lot of quasi-guerrilla warfare driven by smaller ships slipping through node blockades and running around behind enemy lines. Planets are rarely, if ever bombarded from orbit due to the precedent it would set, and are instead captured by ground warfare, which is where I figure the bulk of the casualties and fighting would be.

I realize that you can fiddle the story that you use and justify almost any figure for this number, so I'm not super worried. I just need a figure for various purposes in Frontlines, and I figured I might as well make it consistent with some kind of general consensus.

So, any thoughts?

[EDIT]Note that I'm only worried about the T-V war - everything before the Shivana forced an armistice. The HoL and the glassing of Vasuda prime and all the Shivan related stuff aren't really relevant in this particular instance.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Lorric on February 03, 2014, 02:59:07 pm
I don't know where the work is, I'd like to read it, but maybe this would be of some use:

http://www.hard-light.net/wiki/index.php/Eishtmo's_Terran-Vasudan_War_timeline
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Goober5000 on February 03, 2014, 03:19:27 pm
Yeah, Eishtmo also thought that the T-V war was a lot like WWI.  Here are some more of his thoughts...

I do have one last thought on why the war was such a stalemate for so long:  It wasn't really much of a war for the bulk of it.  And by bulk, I mean the first 10 - 12 years.

Ever play Civilization II?  You'd be out exploring, come across some random civilization that would promptly declare war on you even though they were half a world away?  You'd never see a single unit of theirs for hundreds of turns, and battles, if they happend at all, woudl be if your units just HAPPENED to come across each other.

I think this is how most of the 14 Year War was fought.  Sure, they declared war early, but the actual FIGHTING almost never took place, not just for the early part, for MOST of it.  It was only in the last few years that we see any serious fighting at all.  This would explain odd names (Aldebaran Encounter, Vega Engagement), and also why the Vasudans held off the Terrans for so long:  They just plain never fought them.  There were battles, of course, rare, but they happened, and they were good sized, but never big enough to consititute the kind of war we see in FS1 and FS2.  Once they were over, it could be months before the two sides ran into each other again.

Except on the ground, where they probably still had the heaviest fighting of the war.  The space war, however, was a yawn.  It was probably more like the navel war of World War I, which really didn't do much of anything outside of ONE big battle.  Then nothing ever again.

All this would explain some oddities we see.  Vasudans in Betelguese and Ross 128 because they had colonies there that the GTA didn't find right away, Terrans colonizing Regulus, and the NTF making Sirius one of the core systems.  Also remember that the GTA had only been in interstellar space for about 7 years before the 14 Year War started, which is a pitifully short amount of time to expand through this small corner of the galaxy.  Add on another 10 years, though, that's more than enough time to build sizable colonies outside of Sol, ones big enough to withstand losing Sol at the end of FS1.

The war didn't actually get hot and interesting until the Vasudans deployed the Typhon, and they probably only did it after they were sure they could take on an Orion.  And even building the Typhon was probably not something they needed to rush to build, so it would explain the absence of a PVN destroyer and why the GTA just simply roll over the Vasudans:  Neither side knew where the other was, and neither was really looking either.


It's worth noting, however, that the GTM-N1 Harbinger was originally used for planetary bombardments during the T-V war, according to a FS1 command briefing.  So planetary bombardments weren't unheard-of, although nothing is said of how frequent they were.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: General Battuta on February 03, 2014, 03:30:45 pm
Between the planetary bombardments and the implied massive colonization push during the Great War (implied, that is, by FS2 population numbers and the very limited duration of Terran starflight) you've actually got quite a bit of room for casualties during TVW because of the huge number of civilians moving between systems. At times it may have been a very grim war of direct life attrition.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Black Wolf on February 03, 2014, 03:40:16 pm
I disagree with several of Eishtmo's positions on the TV war, but I am aware of what he's said. I'm just not interested in accepting it without question.

It's worth noting, however, that the GTM-N1 Harbinger was originally used for planetary bombardments during the T-V war, according to a FS1 command briefing.  So planetary bombardments weren't unheard-of, although nothing is said of how frequent they were.

Actually, the wording of the briefing states that Harbingers were "reserved" for planetary bombardment, not that they were ever used for it. Add that to the fact that they're salted bombs, designed for maximum fallout, and the interpretation that they're revenge weapons begins to make sense - you don't use them unless the other guy does first, and you need to ensure that doing so has some seriously unpleasant consequences. It's not quite MAD, but it's in a similar vein.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Lorric on February 03, 2014, 04:16:49 pm
I disagree with several of Eishtmo's positions on the TV war, but I am aware of what he's said. I'm just not interested in accepting it without question.
Has anyone even done anything on any part of the Terran/Vasudan War that wasn't right before the Shivans show up? I haven't seen anything (and would be interested in anything there might be, but I've searched and found nothing.) And there's very little on the war in the canon. So really, you have basically a blank canvas to paint on in that regard as far as I can see.

Me personally I'd keep the casualties on the low side for a war like this, because of the way the Terrans and Vasudans basically seamlessly create the GTVA. Even with the Shivans, you'd expect a bit of backstabbing and score-settling by both sides if there were bitter grudges from the TV war, and certainly after the great war was over, there's be room for some score-settling. But it doesn't happen. What you describe in your OP sounds like a good basis to work with to me.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: mjn.mixael on February 03, 2014, 04:26:54 pm
Well, this poses an interesting problem given the medium that we use to tell stories around here. Eishtmo's ideas are interesting and plausible, but.. they don't make for a very good space sim campaign. I'm sure it could be done, but it would be difficult to do a campaign where battles are few and far between. That scenario much more easily lends towards Star Wars Prequels levels of blah, as far as a campaign is concerned.

So therein lies the issue. How do you plausibly tell the story of a time period in the 14-year war and have it go beyond some written thesis into fun-filled campaign with actual, you know space shooting.

I really like some of Eishtmo's ideas (and they helped form a basis for several aspects of BtA), but the reality is that his stuff never got off the ground well in FSO. TVWP is still struggling to get something decent out that isn't U-War.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Lorric on February 03, 2014, 04:31:22 pm
A less intense war does allow smaller battles to be more believable though, which means the player can have a greater impact than some big BOE where you're just one fly in a swarm of flies buzzing around.

Black Wolf of course will already have his own plan, but I bet you could create some campaigns where it's not about the big picture. Especially when the T/V war had no winner or loser anyway. You could simply have a campaign revolve around one mission (where you play several missions to complete that mission) or a Vasudan Admiral against a Terran Admiral / rivalry between two capital ships, or just keeping your own capital ship alive behind enemy lines, something like that. And of course the novelty of unshielded combat.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: mjn.mixael on February 03, 2014, 04:54:59 pm
Well, I think it's a little more difficult than that. Since you would only focus on a short set of skirmishes, you get a cog-in-the-machine effect in a different way. Why does this skirmish matter in the scheme of a 14 year long war?

I think what I'm mostly getting at is that it'd be difficult to do a story about the war itself and instead the story needs to be about something else, but within the context of the 14 year war. Consequently, I faced this same problem with BtA's story. It's hard to write a series of missions about the decline era because, well, not much happens in the grand scheme of things until the BETAC signing. Skirmishes with HoL, criminals, etc.. but nothing major that we know of. So instead of writing a story about the decline, I wrote a story against the backdrop of the decline.

And I suppose it's possible that this is all just from my tunnel vision of FS1/FS2 being major grand stories about "The War".. perhaps you've all gone through that process already and I'm just catching up. Though, few who've worked in the TVW era seem to have grasped that, as evidenced by the lack of good TVW era campaigns.

All this to say, IMO.. you could do whatever you want with casualties in the era, Black Wolf! :p
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Lorric on February 03, 2014, 05:13:17 pm
Yes, it would be very hard to write something that "matters" in the T/V War.

Even if you created an alternate history story to bring the war to it's conclusion, it wouldn't mean much with the Shivans arriving soon after. If anything, it might make it harder to defend against the Shivans.

Off the top of my head, the only way I can think of to make an event in the T/V war matter is to be keeping a significant figure/s from the Great War alive through it. For example, the scientists that adapted the Shivan shield technology. Otherwise, it would probably have to be either character-driven to give you something to care about, maybe preventing humanity from losing the T/V war at some key moment, or simply missions created to actually allow you to fight in that era, and relying on that alone simply being enough to draw you in. For me, that is enough due to the lack of such missions, and I am most interested in Black Wolf's campaign.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: NGTM-1R on February 03, 2014, 05:19:10 pm
Eishtmo's interpretation and the World War I At Sea take in general has never made much sense in the face of the direct evidence of the first Command Briefing of the game, which presents the loss of five hundred pilots in Operation Thresher as not actually shockingly high, nor as enough to cripple operational units enough they would have to stand down for replacements and repairs.

500 pilots is presumably enough to completely wipe out several destroyer aerospace groups, but we're never presented with Galatea as coming in to replace units no longer combat effective; Galatea is a reinforcement so that combined with Terran units already in place to complete the operational objectives. The only really supportable conclusion from the evidence in the first CB is that this war is vast undertaking and the units committed to Operation Thresher could actually soak those losses and remain somewhat combat effective. The density of force that implies makes it almost impossible for there not to be constant major combat in shared systems.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Megawolf492 on February 03, 2014, 06:12:53 pm
Eishtmo's interpretation and the World War I At Sea take in general has never made much sense in the face of the direct evidence of the first Command Briefing of the game, which presents the loss of five hundred pilots in Operation Thresher as not actually shockingly high, nor as enough to cripple operational units enough they would have to stand down for replacements and repairs.

What I think Eishtmo was trying to say was that the first 10-12 years was like WWI and the one big battle. After that, it was like WWII and true all out war. So by the time we get to FS1, 500 pilots isn't a lot to Admiral Wolf, but it still keeps the entire death toll from being insane.

If a story is to be told, I think it should follow the pattern set by the Star Wars "Lost Tribe of the Sith" eBooks. The first few eBooks take place at the beginning of the overall story. The next few take place ~1000 years later. The last few take place ~1000 years after that, along with an extra long finale. Each of the mini story arcs have a small finale before the time jump, but the entire collection tells a singular story.

This fits very well with the T/V war. You have the "First Contact War" part (no Turians), then you have the battles revolving the Leviathan production stopping/starting, and then you have the part before the Shivans. You create 3 mini-campaigns that all tie in together. The first few missions you are reacquainting with what happened in the time gap (along with playing the actual missions), then you lead up to a finale. The last mini-campaign is longer than the other two because you have more to work with and its the grand finale.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: headdie on February 03, 2014, 06:42:10 pm
here is something that would slow down a war but allow big battles.

the inter system aspect of the war is dominated by limited access points, the whole damn thing is a series of open spaces linked by easily blockaded choke points meaning that there are three key stages to taking a systems.

1) break the other guys blockade while not leaving yourself dangerously exposed to counter attack.  I expect this to work like a blitzkrieg you punch through, overshoot, turn round and then hit the opponents defences up the rear
2) you engage in manoeuvre warfare hitting strategic targets as available
3) secure the next node(s)

In this model you would have long periods of low intensity warfare while each side built up for the next push followed by an intense period of perhaps a few months tops taking a system.

With operation Thresher I guess what happened is that stage 1 completed, stage 2 is where the offensive broke down, the GTA was able to hit strategic targets such as resupply points but failed to clear out military strong points leaving a contested system with both sides operating primarily from the jump node blockade points to minimise length and risk to supply lines and trying to create a hole in the opposition's defences while not taking too many casualties.

In the mode of war I described above high casualties are probably the norm and you will probably find destroyers operating beyond rated capacity at the start of the campaign with a ready supply of replacement fighters, pilots, parts and weapons ready to be rushed forwards to replace operational losses
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: InsaneBaron on February 03, 2014, 06:52:51 pm
Eishtmo's interpretation and the World War I At Sea take in general has never made much sense in the face of the direct evidence of the first Command Briefing of the game, which presents the loss of five hundred pilots in Operation Thresher as not actually shockingly high, nor as enough to cripple operational units enough they would have to stand down for replacements and repairs.

What I think Eishtmo was trying to say was that the first 10-12 years was like WWI and the one big battle. After that, it was like WWII and true all out war. So by the time we get to FS1, 500 pilots isn't a lot to Admiral Wolf, but it still keeps the entire death toll from being insane.

If a story is to be told, I think it should follow the pattern set by the Star Wars "Lost Tribe of the Sith" eBooks. The first few eBooks take place at the beginning of the overall story. The next few take place ~1000 years later. The last few take place ~1000 years after that, along with an extra long finale. Each of the mini story arcs have a small finale before the time jump, but the entire collection tells a singular story.

This fits very well with the T/V war. You have the "First Contact War" part (no Turians), then you have the battles revolving the Leviathan production stopping/starting, and then you have the part before the Shivans. You create 3 mini-campaigns that all tie in together. The first few missions you are reacquainting with what happened in the time gap (along with playing the actual missions), then you lead up to a finale. The last mini-campaign is longer than the other two because you have more to work with and its the grand finale.

Pretty much what I would say. I always had the impression that the T-V War was something of an on-and-off war, with specific, fairly intense operations as one side tries a new offensive against some target, followed by a calmer staring-contest stretch. Also, I assume civilian casualties were pretty low. Neither race seems to have been trying to exterminate or even subjugate the other; it was more of a "I want this system and so do they" matter. Military casualties would have come in waves, with Thresher being one.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Lorric on February 03, 2014, 07:12:53 pm
I could imagine by the time the Shivans came along, everyone on both sides might well have been tired of the war and happy to be done with it once the Shivans had been dealt with.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: NGTM-1R on February 03, 2014, 07:13:17 pm
What I think Eishtmo was trying to say was that the first 10-12 years was like WWI and the one big battle.

Ross 128 Vasudans say that you, like Eish, forget the U-boat war part of this analogy. (Also Dogger Bank and Coronel and Falklands and the bombardments of the English coast and I could go on).

More to the point, the "force density" comment apparently sailed over your head, so I'll reiterate: World War I and the later stages of the Pacific War happened because one side had very limited comparative resources. That situation if applied to the chokepoints theory of FreeSpace means that the war is over quickly as the side with the overwhelming material advantage finds a weak point in your multiple choke points, crashes through your node blockades and torches your planets. FS lends itself to the power of concentrated force to win battles that win wars by its very nature of FTL, which is one of the reasons the Colossus and the Shivans in both games work.

A parity of force at the strategic level is required to develop the 14 Year War for fourteen years. The availability of relatively large forces and the lack of a perceived or real material disadvantage means that people will be willing to risk some of said forces in aggressive patrolling and other activities that provoke combat on a regular and sustained basis. Inevitably, some of these small-clashes will escalate and you'll have semiregular outbreaks of major combat.

Add to that the fact that some systems were apparently shared, like Antares, for months at a time, and I'd expect the order of the day to be something much closer to Guadalcanal-the-campaign and its perceived parity of force than Jutland and its clash of the dreadnaughts as a result of mutual screwup.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: mjn.mixael on February 03, 2014, 07:28:55 pm
Its all speculation based on highly limited canon information. Let's not start arguing as if someone is actually wrong. I might also suggest that this isn't a thread about the theories and psychologies of war... Especially given that the circumstances are so completely different than any anology we have... Because we have never actually witnessed a space war spanning throughout the galaxy against an alien species with different psychologies.

Juss saying.. This doesn't need to turn into a debate about who's right about a fictional time period in a made up story involving fake characters, desert aliens, and space weapons.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Black Wolf on February 03, 2014, 11:15:00 pm
So nobody wants to hazard a number? I'm sort of thinking a total combined death toll of around 15 million (spread over both sides, military and civilian, over the full 14 years) might be about right?
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Mobius on February 12, 2014, 05:51:25 am
Well, I'm going to be honest with you: I have no idea, and the information we have is so poor I guess it's impossible to come out with an accurate estimate of the death toll.

Personally, I'd go with a WWI-like T-V War, and a WWII-like Great War, as it makes more sense to me. First, because I can hardly imagine an all out war in space that doesn't involve great empires lasting so long, and second, because I believe the Shivans completely changed the rules when they first appeared in FS1, thus leading the PVE to end its hostilities with the GTA.

By the way, in our history we've had a war that lasted en entire century (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hundred_Years%27_War), mostly because it had its on and off (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hundred_Years%27_War#First_peace:_1360.E2.80.9369) periods that made it possible.


EDIT: Also, speaking of planetary bombardments during the T-V War, they would have broken many rules of engagement had they not been aimed specifically at military installations and bases on the surface. I can't speak for the Vasudans, but the Terrans sure would have made a big deal of the unnecessary death of millions of Vasudan civilians.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: InsaneBaron on February 12, 2014, 08:00:47 am
Well, I'm going to be honest with you: I have no idea, and the information we have is so poor I guess it's impossible to come out with an accurate estimate of the death toll.

Personally, I'd go with a WWI-like T-V War, and a WWII-like Great War, as it makes more sense to me. First, because I can hardly imagine an all out war in space that doesn't involve great empires lasting so long, and second, because I believe the Shivans completely changed the rules when they first appeared in FS1, thus leading the PVE to end its hostilities with the GTA.

By the way, in our history we've had a war that lasted en entire century (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hundred_Years%27_War), mostly because it had its on and off (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hundred_Years%27_War#First_peace:_1360.E2.80.9369) periods that made it possible.


EDIT: Also, speaking of planetary bombardments during the T-V War, they would have broken many rules of engagement had they not been aimed specifically at military installations and bases on the surface. I can't speak for the Vasudans, but the Terrans sure would have made a big deal of the unnecessary death of millions of Vasudan civilians.

On the one hand, mjn.mixael is right in that it's ultimately up to the campaign author. There's no clear canon information.

On the other hand, if I were writing the campaign I'd go with what Mobius is saying: an on-off war, with brief flurries of activity followed by stand-off periods. For one thing, if the war had been going full-bore for 14 years I'm pretty sure one side would have collapsed a while back. For another, neither the Terrans nor Vasudans seem to have been trying to exterminate the other race; it was probably more of a competition of planetary resources.

Personally, I think 15 million (that's a million a year) seems too high. An Orion carries about 10,000 personnel, and a Typhon likely carries a similar crew. Cruisers have much smaller crews, apparently in the hundreds but we can't be sure, certainly much less than the 6,000 crew of a corvette. 15 million is the equivalent of ten or eleven destroyers lost per year, and it's unlikely that that many destroyers were lost over the whole war. It would probably take at least 5 cruisers (guesstimating) to equal the crew of a destroyer, and given that destroyer losses were rare (probably less than five for the whole war), that means each side is loosing 50-60 cruisers a year, which seems unsustainable. Pilot losses are to be counted too, but given that it's one pilot a ship, and more then 20 pilots a sortie is very rare (esp on the terran side), they really wouldn't count for much compared to capship losses, and they certainly wouldn't make much progress towards a million a year.

Also, loosing 500,000 people a year for 14 years seems like something that would severely hinder the "Alliance", which seems to have formed very quickly after the Shivans appeared. While I'm sure there were people angry about it (ST:R) losses on that level would likely have lead to much more rampant speceisism.

Lastly, both species have a pretty clear concept of ROE, and seem willing to apply these rules to other species, so I doubt civilian casualties would be very high. Orbital bombardment with Harbingers would have been a sort of MAD atrocity.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Luis Dias on February 12, 2014, 09:58:20 am
A million deaths per year is equal to 10 x 10 thousand?

Anyways I agree, the losses barring orbital bombardment should be pretty low, in the order of hundreds of thousands, perhaps a million (civilian ships and stations mostly), tops.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: InsaneBaron on February 12, 2014, 10:37:40 am
A million deaths per year is equal to 10 x 10 thousand?

Anyways I agree, the losses barring orbital bombardment should be pretty low, in the order of hundreds of thousands, perhaps a million (civilian ships and stations mostly), tops.

Excuse my early-morning math failure syndrome (EMMFS). I understated my own case  One Hundred destroyers lost per year makes Inferno look like a petty squabble.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Black Wolf on February 12, 2014, 11:24:05 am
I was assuming most if those casualties would be from ground combat, and that casualties from ship to ship combat would represent a relatively small fraction of the total deaths.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: General Battuta on February 12, 2014, 11:30:55 am
Given the massive colonization push going on at the same time I suspect a large portion of the deaths would be civilians and colonists who fell victim to blockade or disruptions in supply, leading to ecosystem collapse or fluctuations in access to vital material.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Mobius on February 12, 2014, 01:25:20 pm
But honestly, did it even make sense for a Terran civilian to leave Sol during an intergalactic war between two different species (where the Geneva conventions did not apply and none of the sides could force the other not to shoot at civilians), and live in a place that was just one intersystem jump away from either a Vasudan controlled system or a disputed system?

Obviously, I'm not denying the colonization of all those systems beyond Sol which would have later become the Terran controlled systems of the GTVA, but I find this whole idea that a great many civilians were killed during the T-V War to be rather weird. Most civilians were probably away from the frontlines and lived in colonies where the risk of a serious attack was minimal. Also, I may be wrong, but I can't find any canonical references pointing out to massacres of civilians during the T-V War... that's something the FS Bible or the Tech descriptions would report, right?
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: General Battuta on February 12, 2014, 01:40:02 pm
The GTA's central ideology was canonically one of expansion and colonization, and the layout of the timeline means that most of this colonization must have happened during the T-V war.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Mobius on February 12, 2014, 01:44:13 pm
But surely not in a way that would have endangered civilians. I don't think the civilians used to move to the frontlines during the war; they likely preferred "safe" systems like Delta Serpentis (http://www.hard-light.net/wiki/index.php/Delta_Serpentis), which later became the new capital of the GTA after the Sol jump node collapsed. That is hardly a coincidence and is probably tied to the Terran colonization of nearby systems: Delta Serpentis eventually the capital because it was safe during the T-V War and millions of Terrans were living there in 2335.

Quote
2335: Delta Serpentis becomes the new capital for the remainder of the Galactic Terran Alliance. Contact with Sol not re-established as of 2367.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: General Battuta on February 12, 2014, 01:50:10 pm
Just by the position of the systems the GTA (and the Vasudans) end up colonizing, odds are that colonies will be in the line of military operations. History suggests neither side is likely to draw a sharp line between military targets and civilian shipping, and since the strategic and ideological objectives of both parties include land grabbing, colonists will probably be treated as fair game for raiding and anti-merchant work, if not necessarily full-scale nuclear attacks.

Most civilian casualties would come from disruptions in the colonization program caused by military events: starvation, ecosystem collapse, interruptions of supply, untreated epidemics. The colony program is quite rapid and the sheer number of human beings that need to be moved to achieve FS2 population numbers is colossal.

There's also the question of the species gap. Human psychology, at least, will make it fairly easy to sanction mass killings of Vasudan civilians.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Mobius on February 12, 2014, 02:08:05 pm
Judging from the canon information that we have, the most cruel battles of the Terran Vasudan War were fought in isolated, unimportant systems or planets we don't know anything about. They're not mentioned in FS2, they don't appear in Tech descriptions citing key planets and systems, etc. That leads me to believe the collateral damage of those battles was minimal.

We've got the Battle of Gulnara (http://www.hard-light.net/wiki/index.php/Battle_of_Gulnara) (Terran victory), the Battle of Talania (http://www.hard-light.net/wiki/index.php/Battle_of_Talania) (Vasudan victory), the Battle of Rexias 4 (probably a Terran defeat) and the Vega Engagement (http://www.hard-light.net/wiki/index.php/Typhon#FS1_Tech_Room_Description). Without considering the Vega Engagement, which refers to an entire system, all battles refer to places that are never cited as important (and therefore populated) in the FreeSpace continuity.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: General Battuta on February 12, 2014, 02:12:15 pm
Exactly my point above. Most civilian casualties would come from disruptions in the colonization program caused by military events: starvation, ecosystem collapse, interruptions of supply, untreated epidemics. The colony program is quite rapid and the sheer number of human beings that need to be moved to achieve FS2 population numbers is colossal.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Mobius on February 12, 2014, 02:15:36 pm
I don't understand how civilians could experience any of those problems in systems that were far behind the frontlines. In Delta Serpentis, for example, it would have been nearly impossible to experience starvation or supply interruptions.

Also:

The colony program is quite rapid and the sheer number of human beings that need to be moved to achieve FS2 population numbers is colossal.

Since when the population of Terran systems in FS2 is believed to be high?
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: General Battuta on February 12, 2014, 02:17:41 pm
The systems they're moving to aren't going to be so much 'behind the frontlines' as 'literally the frontlines' in a lot of cases, and so are the lines of supply for those colonies. In order to reach the distribution and population density required for FS2 to work by the time FS1 ends, the colonization program has to be going on during the war and in the middle of it, spatially.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: MatthTheGeek on February 12, 2014, 02:49:56 pm
Since when the population of Terran systems in FS2 is believed to be high?
Just look at the numbers from the evacuation of Capella. Even if you assume Capella was one of the largest ones, that still makes hundreds of millions of people.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: General Battuta on February 12, 2014, 03:07:23 pm
Yep, you need to get '250 million' to be your 'densely populated' standard in roughly ~50 years, with 32 of those probably involving fairly limited population growth.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Mongoose on February 12, 2014, 10:52:06 pm
Either that or everyone screwed like rabbits.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: General Battuta on February 12, 2014, 10:58:49 pm
I thought about that! But even if Capellan citizens reproduced as rapidly in 50 years as the entire nation of China in 100 years, it would still only triple its population, giving an initial seed population in the first year of the Terran-Vasudan War of 83 million. Given 10,000 crew aboard an Orion (the canonical figure from FS2), that's 8,300 Orion-loads deposited into Capella alone, plus necessary supporting infrastructure.

So just to get Capella to the necessary start population assuming you left it alone from year zero of the TVW onward requires a spectacular effort. Assuming you distribute that effort over every day of the 14 year war, you're still depositing nearly 2 Orions worth of people in Capella alone EVERY SINGLE DAY. And that's assuming they breed twice as fast as China in the 20th century!
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Dragon on February 12, 2014, 11:03:37 pm
Perhaps it could also be that people live longer and can reproduce for longer in FS universe. It wasn't really established in game, and given the year, not really unlikely. Remember that not only birth rates, but also death rates matter, and I imagine the latter would be quite low. As long as you're not a redshirt pilot, the average life expectation could be around 300 years for all we know.
Also, while Orion has 10.000 people crew, it's a warship, not a colony ship. Dedicated colonization ships probably carry a lot more people.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: General Battuta on February 12, 2014, 11:16:07 pm
Improved standard of living doesn't tend to push people towards a population expansion rate double 20th century China's, though. Usually the opposite. China's stats include all the mortality factors that would slow that expansion, and some of those factors might well be gone...but even if you assume Capella's seed population bred at 4x the rate of 20th century China (which, well, damn) you're still talking about a huge amount of lift arriving in Capella alone every day of the war.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Mongoose on February 13, 2014, 12:02:54 am
Yeah that was meant as a very unlikely possibility. :p
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: swashmebuckle on February 13, 2014, 12:53:56 am
Or the colony ships just bring along egg/sperm banks and can manufacture artificial wombs. Shake and bake!
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: karajorma on February 13, 2014, 01:05:20 am
Seems rather unlikely though given the known lift capabilities the GTVA have. Remember that in the first mission landing 600,000 troops was seen as a reasonably big offensive but not an enormous one. Getting 250 million people out of Capella was similarly seen as do-able. Shake and bake colonies are the sort of thing you have when your colony has no backup. Not when they can dump another 100,000 people on your planet next week.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: The E on February 13, 2014, 02:09:17 am
Yeah, we kinda have to assume that there are ships out there that can lift that many people with ease. So basically Colossus-sized vessels that are nothing but big colony transports....
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Mobius on February 13, 2014, 03:33:24 am
We have never seen a civilian liner in FreeSpace so we can only speculate on their capacities. If you compare modern day cruise ships to combat carriers, it becomes clear that the former can carry much more people. That's surely because a lot of space in carriers is devoted to military stuff like storing weapons, supplies, airplanes, etc.

A double decker Airbus A380 can carry some 800 passengers in a full Economy-class configuration, and some 500 passengers in a 3-4 classes configuration. Considering that in FreeSpace two or three Ursae bombers put together are probably bigger than a Superjumbo, imagine how many passengers a corvette-sized space faring ship could carry.

Since when the population of Terran systems in FS2 is believed to be high?
Just look at the numbers from the evacuation of Capella. Even if you assume Capella was one of the largest ones, that still makes hundreds of millions of people.

Which is still nothing compared to the 15+ billions, at least, who were living in Sol at the time.

Also, demographics change over time: just because 200 million Capellans escaped from the Shivans in FS2, it does not imply that 200 million Terrans colonized the system during the T-V War. At first they could have been only a few million individuals that gradually increased during the Reconstruction Era, both thanks to new births and immigrants who moved from systems like Delta Serpentis.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: karajorma on February 13, 2014, 05:10:47 am
It does however show that the GTVA and therefore probably the GTA have the capability to put that many people on a planet.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Luis Dias on February 13, 2014, 05:26:17 am
All this population discussion is immensely interesting and intelligent (lets hope it doesn't get derailed by that-you-know-what-topic), but I think you are missing one key element. While it is true that 250 million inhabitants in Capella seems like a monstruous figure in so short notice, we might just be experiencing a lack of imagination due to our 20th century experiences. We could debate this properly, for instance I think bringing the figure of 2 Orions per day is slightly disingenuous since it's very possible to fit way more than 10k civilians in an Orion, perhaps as much as 100k, or depending how decks are arranged we could imagine 1m We can easily imagine giant civilian cruisers bringing the new generations from other more populated colonies (and Earth) into the "new promised lands" (this could prove useful in imagining new civilian liner ideas for made ships in FS2), or just hundreds of simple civilian frigates always making these rounds (and the economics of which would justify the size of the fleets).

Finally, you are also assuming that new generations are still born in the old-fashioned slow way. Simple improvements on this technical limitation could change the whole maths of the discussion.

It does however show that the GTVA and therefore probably the GTA have the capability to put that many people on a planet.

Yeah. Exactly.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: karajorma on February 13, 2014, 05:31:23 am
It's also worth remembering that a trip from Sol to even an outlying system like Capella might take the same amount as a flight from the UK to New Zealand. A lot of people seem to be in the mindset that this is a long journey taking weeks or months. When in fact they only really need the logistics to carry a couple of in-flight meals and some peanuts.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Droid803 on February 13, 2014, 05:39:58 am
If that's economy-class seating, it's still rather unpleasant, just recently re-experiencing it firsthand. Ungh.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Luis Dias on February 13, 2014, 05:42:02 am
We should also bear in mind that if we are to take lessons from the 20th century seriously, we have witnessed the biggest exodus (from the countryside to the cities) in history globally (in the order of billions of people).
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: The E on February 13, 2014, 06:19:57 am
Billions of people moving through areas that are very friendly to humans and already have lots of infrastructure in place. Slightly different to moving to a fresh colony, I should think.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Luis Dias on February 13, 2014, 06:50:47 am
I'm not going to start discussing the environmental feasability of building colonies in wild planets. I'm working on the assumption these planets are StarTrekkian in the sense they are mostly and miraculously just like Earth, at least in the basics (atmosphere, existence of water, no biological threats).
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Dragon on February 13, 2014, 08:23:08 am
Well, I think it's a reasonable assumption. Afterall, why would humans settle on any other sort of planet? :) Hostile worlds could have mining outposts, but cites would be built on Earth-like, reasonably human-friendly planets.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: General Battuta on February 13, 2014, 08:38:54 am
We have never seen a civilian liner in FreeSpace so we can only speculate on their capacities. If you compare modern day cruise ships to combat carriers, it becomes clear that the former can carry much more people. That's surely because a lot of space in carriers is devoted to military stuff like storing weapons, supplies, airplanes, etc.

A double decker Airbus A380 can carry some 800 passengers in a full Economy-class configuration, and some 500 passengers in a 3-4 classes configuration. Considering that in FreeSpace two or three Ursae bombers put together are probably bigger than a Superjumbo, imagine how many passengers a corvette-sized space faring ship could carry.

Yep, exactly. There must have been massive civilian lift capabilities in constant use for the demographics to make sense.

The only sane conclusion of the canon information we have about the 14 year war - including a GTA whose central, unifying ideology was one of colonial expansion - is that the colonization project went on during the war, in massive scale, and was perhaps such a big part of the state's strategic objectives that it was itself part of the war effort.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Mars on February 13, 2014, 08:57:03 am
The Argo has a gross tonnage modestly larger than the largest cruise ships of today. Assuming a single Argo can carry 4000 people (not a ridiculous number I don't think) and a fleet of 2000 Argos (also doesn't seem to be beyond the GTVAs capability) you could move 250 million people in just over thirty one trips.

Obviously, the GTA must have used Elysiums, but the principle remains the same, the smallest Freespace ships are quite large indeed. I don't think we need to imagine a Colossus sized colony ship for the one canon population figure we see to be feasible, or even mobile. The Elysiums tech description implies that it is the GTAs primary mover, and in sufficient numbers (quite a large figure) they could probably move millions, and eventually billions.

Now movement of equipment, I don't know about that. The GTVA must have cities, I suppose this must have taken many hundreds of thousands of TC containers to get industry started. (EDIT) On multiple planet sized colonies,
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: General Battuta on February 13, 2014, 08:59:26 am
I don't think anyone in the thread has argued that the seed population figures are infeasible - simply that they required people and their infrastructure to move in large numbers, and that the timeframe of the TVW means this has to happen DURING the war.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Luis Dias on February 13, 2014, 09:19:20 am
During the war? I'm skeptical about that. If it is possible to move people quickly and without great effort, then I don't think the 14 year gap is so necessary in order to account for all the canon numbers.

What I agree is necessary is that the colonies already have a sufficient number of humans when the Great War ends, so that the GTA doesn't dissolve by pure numbers and remains sufficiently relevant inside the GTVA (and is able to arrange colonies of hundreds of million humans 32 years later). If those massive colonization processes happened before or during the TV war is something where I am ignorant that any relevant canon information is able to lock it down. So I guess is up to your tastes.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: General Battuta on February 13, 2014, 09:33:56 am
The problem is that there's (logically speaking) barely any time before the war breaks out to do all this colonization, and since interstellar travel was a recent discovery, that's the point at which the GTA is probably going to have the least colonization infrastructure ready. So you end up having to place most of the work during the war, which fits nicely with the FS Ref Bible's description of GTA ideology.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: NGTM-1R on February 13, 2014, 09:50:11 am
It does however show that the GTVA and therefore probably the GTA have the capability to put that many people on a planet.

Not just that; the initial colonization is still going to have to bring anything more sophisticated than raw timber or stone with them even on the nicest of planets. If the GTVA can supply 600000 people with trooplift, that also means they can keep them in rations and ammo and weapons from offworld.

I don't think FS armies have gone back to foraging for supply.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Lorric on February 13, 2014, 11:33:11 am
We have never seen a civilian liner in FreeSpace so we can only speculate on their capacities. If you compare modern day cruise ships to combat carriers, it becomes clear that the former can carry much more people. That's surely because a lot of space in carriers is devoted to military stuff like storing weapons, supplies, airplanes, etc.

A double decker Airbus A380 can carry some 800 passengers in a full Economy-class configuration, and some 500 passengers in a 3-4 classes configuration. Considering that in FreeSpace two or three Ursae bombers put together are probably bigger than a Superjumbo, imagine how many passengers a corvette-sized space faring ship could carry.

Yep, exactly. There must have been massive civilian lift capabilities in constant use for the demographics to make sense.

The only sane conclusion of the canon information we have about the 14 year war - including a GTA whose central, unifying ideology was one of colonial expansion - is that the colonization project went on during the war, in massive scale, and was perhaps such a big part of the state's strategic objectives that it was itself part of the war effort.
Uh... why did you turn him yellow?
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Luis Dias on February 13, 2014, 11:56:57 am
It's a vasudan ploy to destroy your concentration.

DON'T LOSE YOUR FOCUS PILOT
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: NGTM-1R on February 13, 2014, 03:20:49 pm
Uh... why did you turn him yellow?

Both are equally painful to read, so I really don't see the difference.

I'd have gone with hot pink, myself.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Megawolf492 on February 13, 2014, 04:43:04 pm
Also, demographics change over time: just because 200 million Capellans escaped from the Shivans in FS2, it does not imply that 200 million Terrans colonized the system during the T-V War. At first they could have been only a few million individuals that gradually increased during the Reconstruction Era, both thanks to new births and immigrants who moved from systems like Delta Serpentis.[/color]

I agree with this. Delta Serpentis might have been THE system to settle in initially because it would have been the first system to be explored and its close to Earth. The settlement of the presumed planet(s) might have followed the way the new world was settled by Europeans: initial military settlements by governments followed by an "open" invitation to the public to settle. With 10+ billion people on earth, many people from most economic backgrounds would have flocked there for many reasons. The population numbers might have been in the billions by the end of the T/V war, with some of them returning to Earth during the Great War. After the fall of the GTA, some of them would have moved to Capella because of promise of safety, land, etc.

Remember, most of the upper class would have had private Yacht-like vessels and some of the middle class could have had small motorboat-like craft. After a while, there would have been starliners ferrying people back and forth like airlines today. Yes, there was a war going on, but I don't believe it would have seemed very close in Sol & D.S.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: General Battuta on February 13, 2014, 04:46:09 pm
Mobius' statement (that you're agreeing with) is the product of his failure to read anything posted in the thread: nobody has argued that 250 million Capellans settled the system during the TVWP. We worked out the actual math of settlement that produces a terminal population of 250 million nearly 50 years after the start of the TVWP, during FS2.

This creates a realistic minimum for the number of people who need to be moved to Capella before and during the T-V War. You're right that many more people may have moved there (though I think you're wrong about rich people/the middle class owning private starcraft). But while many MORE people may have traveled to colonies like Capella during wartime, it was probably not many less than the numbers we calculated, which still imply a significant amount of colonist traffic during the course of hostilities.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Megawolf492 on February 13, 2014, 05:54:43 pm
So, what I think you are saying is that there was a good chunk of the 250 million already there by the end of the Great War (say, 50-100 million). The rest got there by birth or migration from other colonies. And so you are wondering why 50-100 million people (and their stuff) are traveling during wartime. I think that is what you are arguing/trying to figure out.

If you populate the planet(s) of Delta Serpentis with 500m people (at least) before the end of the Great War, then you really don't need anybody at Capella before the end of the Great War. DS is in the heart of Terran space, so there would be a very small risk to whoever wants to make the journey (however that would happen). Given the plausibly overcrowded Earth, many people would want to go there to make a new life for themselves, making 500m over 14 years feasible.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: General Battuta on February 13, 2014, 06:30:02 pm
Capella is just a useful model for 'the total population of Terran colonies'.  You bring up a good point when talking about the distribution of that population, but it's almost irrelevant: Delta Serpentis would need to hold on the order of 1 billion people if it were the focal point of Terran emigration from Sol, and it's right near the front lines of the Terran-Vasudan war, two jumps from Antares and some of the heaviest fighting of the war. Even if it's the safest place in Terran space it's not very safe...and meanwhile, Antares, Adhara, Regulus, and Luyten 726-8 need to gather enough population and infrastructure to become the central powers of Terran politics during the Reconstruction period. Antares is a killing ground, and Regulus is an actively Vasudan system. There's basically no question that millions of civilians were at or near the front during the 14 Year War.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: General Battuta on February 13, 2014, 06:31:19 pm
Ahaha also worth noting that much of the Wiki material on the GTA seems to have been completely invented. Who's responsible for this ****, let's check Wiki history...

e: no, never mind, it's solid! The GTA's central doctrine was one of 'Unified Expansionism', they were explicitly committed to continuing to expand even with the Terran-Vasudan War raging on, and as of the start of FS1 they'd colonized 'twelve worlds outside of the Sol system.  Outposts have been established on fifteen other planets and moons throughout the known galaxy.' They saw the continued expansion of the colonies as an economic and political goal.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Megawolf492 on February 13, 2014, 07:37:31 pm
meanwhile, Antares, Adhara, Regulus, and Luyten 726-8 need to gather enough population and infrastructure to become the central powers of Terran politics during the Reconstruction period. Antares is a killing ground, and Regulus is an actively Vasudan system. There's basically no question that millions of civilians were at or near the front during the 14 Year War.

Don't forget that Luyten 726-8A wasn't even discovered (or at least explored/colonized) until at least the beginning of the Great War, as Laramis was only discovered/explored then. According to http://www.hard-light.net/wiki/images/Nodechart-1.jpg (http://www.hard-light.net/wiki/images/Nodechart-1.jpg), Adhara wasn't discovered/explored yet either. So there are two major systems that needed to be fully colonized after the Great War. And given that Regulus was Vasudan, that's basically three. So, yes, there were colonists all over the place, but there would have a place for people to be until they colonized the new systems. Ross 128 would be the safest (from Vasudans), but I doubt the Lucifer would have destroyed the military there but leave the civilians. So really DS is the safest system outside of Sol. And given how evenly the Terrans & Vasudans seemed to be, the people there would be in little danger from Vasudans, even if it is "only" 2 jumps away.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: General Battuta on February 13, 2014, 09:16:54 pm
The fact that these systems aren't discovered until the Great War but are major regional powers immediately after the Great War locks down the fact that they were colonized during the Great War. And remember, Antares was another one of those major regional powers RIGHT after the Great War, meaning it was colonized not just during the war but during some of its heaviest fighting.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Luis Dias on February 14, 2014, 04:06:40 am
I am extremely lazy (and busy) so I can't suss the details out. However, if all you say is true, then it also makes the point that the war was most probably not that dangerous for civilians (why would they be so willing to put themselves at risk?), or that demographics works in significantly different ways in the 23rd century (Billions of people in the 23rd century may mean entirely different maths and problems than it does in the 20th).
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Megawolf492 on February 14, 2014, 07:02:35 am
The fact that these systems aren't discovered until the Great War but are major regional powers immediately after the Great War locks down the fact that they were colonized during the Great War. And remember, Antares was another one of those major regional powers RIGHT after the Great War, meaning it was colonized not just during the war but during some of its heaviest fighting.

Wait, wut? People were traveling during the Great War? I could see people traveling during the off-again/on-again TV War. At least you could reason with the Vasudans and they might not just kill you outright. If you get attacked by Shivans, you're dead unless you kill them. I would like to see where it says Antares (and the others) was a regional power immediately after the Great War. It seems like it would take some time for these governments to form. I doubt it just happened overnight or even close to it. If the Antares Federation did spring up overnight, it's the only one out of the four to make sense. It's the only system that Terrans could "easily" access during the TV War, even if it was a major battleground near the end of the war. Getting that many people in a 3 month stretch (only two months for Luyten 726-8A) to new systems during an all-out war is ridiculous.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Luis Dias on February 14, 2014, 07:48:17 am
Skimming the reference bible, we have a scientist named XXX who says that subspace has been found "22 years ago", as the TV war entered its 14th year. So there was only 8 years before vasudans were found that humans learned about this new interstellar technique. As Battuta says, there was little time to do this properly before the war, so we must somehow infer that colonization kept on happening even after the TV war broke out.

There are some relevant quotes however:

Quote
As the Terran-Vasudan war enters it’s 14th year, Allied Command has little to say about the overall progress of either side.  While food rationing and record high death counts clearly indicate that the war is taking a severe toll on both sides, there appears to be no end in sight.  That is, until this morning, when the Vasudan Ambassador submitted a formal proposal for immediate cease fire on all fronts,…

food rationing and "record" high death counts.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Megawolf492 on February 14, 2014, 08:09:25 am
It's one thing to say they were colonizing during the TV War. It's another to say they were colonizing during the Great War. I think we all agree that people were traveling during the TV War. The issue is where did they go and how many went to each place. I argue that there was a central hub in Delta Serpentis where many people colonized and then dispersed after the Great War. There still were colonies everywhere, but not with the numbers to make Capella 250m strong by FS2. Either way, I wouldn't place too much emphasis on the FS bible, as it's sketchy at best and really didn't mesh with the game that much.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: General Battuta on February 14, 2014, 08:35:47 am
It's one thing to say they were colonizing during the TV War. It's another to say they were colonizing during the Great War. I think we all agree that people were traveling during the TV War. The issue is where did they go and how many went to each place. I argue that there was a central hub in Delta Serpentis where many people colonized and then dispersed after the Great War. There still were colonies everywhere, but not with the numbers to make Capella 250m strong by FS2. Either way, I wouldn't place too much emphasis on the FS bible, as it's sketchy at best and really didn't mesh with the game that much.

The FS Ref Bible isn't necessary. The FreeSpace 1 intel database is the real clincher which proves that colonization was ongoing during the TVW - a core ideological and political component of GTA policy. The idea of a central hub in Delta Serp is fine, but unnecessary: it doesn't match up with canonical information about the post-Isolation distribution of power, which never describes Delta Serp as a particularly important system, and since it doesn't prevent front line under-the-gun colonization from happening (which it clearly did), it's kind of immaterial.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Luis Dias on February 14, 2014, 08:51:52 am
The war vs the shivans was quick IIRC. Its timeline is pretty much irrelevant.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Gray113 on February 14, 2014, 09:14:48 am
There could be a case for saying that colonisation increased because of the threat from the Shivans. The GTA may have began evacuation Sol in ernest after the fall of Vasusda prime and if a system of 250 mil (Capella) can be evacuated in the space of a few weeks then it is possible that the GTA could have sent 100 mil + colonists from Sol to systems away from the front lines in the time between then and the destruction of the Lucy.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Luis Dias on February 14, 2014, 09:25:23 am
Put humans in space where Shivans are having space superiority? (I see your point though)
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Gray113 on February 14, 2014, 10:33:42 am
This could also be used as a factor in some of the intersystem conflicts that flared up during the reconstruction period. High ranking GTA officials and wealthy cooperate officials that fled earth seeking to create power bases in young, undeveloped colonies leading to violence and factional alliances to maintain newly won fiefdoms. Systems that stabilised would then became the power bases of powerfull political factions could then go on to provide security and high employment which in turn would lead to a greater birth rate and attract immigration from less stable systems.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Luis Dias on February 14, 2014, 10:36:03 am
Yes but it all happens too quickly. 32 years is only enough to make a new generation, perhaps one and a half.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Gray113 on February 14, 2014, 10:41:59 am
12 years max for the situation to settle (I would expect the population on colony worlds would be far easier to control due to atmospheric restrictions panetside and the cost of space travel for most citizens) leaving 20 years for the lost generation to get born, stop feeling sorry for themselves and go Shivan hunting
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: General Battuta on February 14, 2014, 10:43:54 am
Right, but the new generation is only going to be able to account for a small fraction of the canonically implied population even if you assume truly preposterous growth rates.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Gray113 on February 14, 2014, 11:04:21 am
Well old WW2's aftermath showed nothing makes people breed more than surviving a catastrophic war  ;7
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: General Battuta on February 14, 2014, 11:12:06 am
Quite so, and even if you assume a growth rate orders of magnitude better you still get a proportionally small bump over the available timeframe. Most of the colonial population needs to be in place right when the Great War ends.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Luis Dias on February 14, 2014, 11:14:55 am
Well lets make numbers up. Lets imagine Capella has some 250 million people and that the majority of systems will be somewhere between a hundred million and a billion, totaling like 5 billion.

Let's imagine people spawning somewhat like post-WW2 but x2 or x3... let's imagine these people all having children, 5 per couple. To reach 5 billion in a single generation, you'd need to start with 1.4 billion people. If we say it's more like 1.5 generations, then it becomes something like almost a billion people. Those people must have come from Sol directly.

Alternatively, we can imagine a giant birthing policy. In vitro stuff, massive school systems, "parents" having each (couple) 30 kids. In this scenario, you'd "only" need ~300 million people (one generation), 60-100 million if we calculate with "more" than a generation.

But this program is unheard of, it's sheer speculation.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: karajorma on February 14, 2014, 11:47:25 am
It's worth remembering that the T-V war was mainly a war over which parts of the universe would end up belonging to which race. The point of the war wasn't genocide, it was to gain territory. Which could very easily mean that getting out there and staking a claim to an uninhabited world was not just a case of "seeking a better life" but also of "Doing your duty for the war effort"
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: General Battuta on February 14, 2014, 11:59:33 am
Yup, and I think the FS1 techroom entries support that. The GTA isn't just a military power, it's an ideological complex that cares about 'unified expansionism' so much that it puts it front and center even when talking to its own pilots.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Luis Dias on February 14, 2014, 12:29:40 pm
I am just mesmerized at the speed of events in this particular situation. Kinda makes me wonder why are they taking so much time colonizing mars and jupiter in BP.

Spoiler:
SHOTS WERE FIRED
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: General Battuta on February 14, 2014, 12:31:13 pm
That's actually addressed in the BP fiction!

(their populations are still comparatively enormous compared to extra-solar colonies)
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Luis Dias on February 14, 2014, 12:36:23 pm
This is why I need some kind of hardware inside my brain, I keep missing / forgetting this stuff.

However, is it me or is the bp fiction stuff improved quite a lot lately?
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Megawolf492 on February 14, 2014, 01:08:41 pm
Most of the colonial population needs to be in place right when the Great War ends.

"In place" meaning outside of Sol or at their "final" colony? I really don't understand how the colonial situation needs to be complete (for the most part) before the Great War ends. Sure, some colonies would have been well established by the end of the TV War. But the colonies beyond Laramis would need more than 2 months to settle.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: General Battuta on February 14, 2014, 01:16:27 pm
The question here is whether colonists were moving outwards during the event of the 14 year war, right? And the answer is pretty incontrovertibly 'yes'. We know who emerged as regional powers in the IMMEDIATE aftermath of the Great War - the regional powers, the ones worth naming, the ones that persist for more than 20 years even after the GTVA is formed. Some of these powers are centered in systems that were either hotly conflicted or fell under Vasudan military control. This tells us that at least some of the primary centers of colonial power developed in contested regions, and that they were ALREADY centers of power as of the Isolation.

The exact distribution of colonial population isn't really important to the question. There may have been a concentration of population in Delta Serpentis, but it apparently wasn't an overwhelming one. What matters to answering our core question - were colonists at risk during the 14 year war? - is this:

The GTA stated its intent to continue expansion during the 14 year war, and made it a core policy.
The colonial powers that rose immediately after the Isolation were frequently positioned in conflicted regions.
Starvation and shortage apparently led to civilian casualties during the Great War.

The picture that arises is not one of a safe core and limited, conservative expansion that kept colonists safe. It is one of aggressive land-grabbing that armed frontier colonists with the population, infrastructure, and military might to become the centers of Terran power.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Megawolf492 on February 14, 2014, 02:24:08 pm
The question here is whether colonists were moving outwards during the event of the 14 year war, right?

Not anymore, I don't think. At least not for me. I agree with pretty much everything you said. For me the question is whether they were moving outwards during the Great War. We know Luyten 726-8A wasn't explored until at least the beginning of the Great War, since Laramis wasn't explored then. So if the Luyten New Alliance was formed RIGHT after the Great War (as you say), then people must have been going there during the Great War. Same thing with Adhara and Regulus, but for different reasons why they weren't settled before the Great War. But traveling during an all out war against a Xenophobic enemy (vs. a semi-war against a slightly ticked off enemy) would be suicide most of the time. Sure, you could have the military escort civilians to these places, but we don't see any of that in FS1.

However, if some of these governments formed later (maybe a few months to a few years), that would give time for civilians to move in relative peace. Why the people chose to move there (and allow the governments to rise) is really unknown, but really is the only uncertainty.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: General Battuta on February 14, 2014, 02:28:49 pm
I'm fairly confident at this point that civilian settlement of contested, dangerous systems was a regular T-V war practice and that attacks against these settlements would have been a primary political and military instrument for both sides during the T-V war.

What happens during the brief time of the Great War isn't something I've really thought about, since the thread analysis was focused on the 14 years prior.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Luis Dias on February 14, 2014, 03:46:56 pm
Well, the idea that Sol evacuated into colony space out of the way of the Lucifer is interesting. It could account for so many people residing in the colonies, or at least help. Vasuda Prime was leveled in March 1, and it only reached the Sol node in march 29. 28 days could be enough for Sol to realise the Lucifer was going to go after Earth and get everyone evacuated as soon as possible. Since the battle of Deneb everyone realised there was practically no hope for Earth anyway.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: -Joshua- on February 15, 2014, 02:40:18 pm
Hmm. I see people, ocasionally, drawing a few parallels towards the 20th century and the first and second world wars. Considering what has been explained in this thread already, for casualty figures one has to look to the 16th, 17th, 18th, and 19th centuries, where major colonial powers ocasionally clashed to take each other's colonies. Think Europa Universalis/Victoria, not Hearts of Iron. It only became the "Great War" when the shivans arrived/the axis powers consolidated, radically changing the balance of power.
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: Droid803 on February 16, 2014, 07:26:59 am
Vasuda Prime was leveled in March 1, and it only reached the Sol node in march 29. 28 days could be enough for Sol to realise the Lucifer was going to go after Earth and get everyone evacuated as soon as possible.
Was there really such a large time-gap between the Lucifer wrecking VasudaPrime and it going after Sol?
Feels off with regards to my recollection of the events of FS1, but that could very well just be me...
Title: Re: Terran-Vasudan war casualties.
Post by: karajorma on February 16, 2014, 09:03:51 am
Well, the idea that Sol evacuated into colony space out of the way of the Lucifer is interesting. It could account for so many people residing in the colonies, or at least help. Vasuda Prime was leveled in March 1, and it only reached the Sol node in march 29. 28 days could be enough for Sol to realise the Lucifer was going to go after Earth and get everyone evacuated as soon as possible. Since the battle of Deneb everyone realised there was practically no hope for Earth anyway.

That would also explain why border systems like Adhara and Luyten had so much power. If they were evacuating Sol, they'd want to move as far from it as they could in the hope that the Shivans wouldn't pay attention to that world for a while.