[redmenace]

Well atleast the Sunnis are voting this time.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9659209/

[deep_eyes]

This is what  I like to see. fight for whats right and what belongs to you.

[Rictor]

If the Sunnis turn out in force they can scuttle the Constitution. It only remains to be seen how commited they are.

The way I see it, whichever way it goes the insurgency will intensify, the Shi'ites might start hitting back, and then you've got a proper civil war going. Or order is somehow restored and the government is dominated by the Iranian-friendly SCIRI and Dawa parties, creating another Islamic Republic. Either way, the US looses.

[mikhael]

Good and bad, rictor.

Bad because we've gotta clean up the mess we made, but I'll be damned if I'll ever believe it was a mess we should have made.

Good, because I'm tired of the nimrods !!!!!ing and moaning.

[Depth_Charge]

well i hope this thing pass, so my dad and my cousin can come home soon

[Grug]

The people  who are being set up are basically the first turn coats who came forward when the coalition invaded. They were giving handy intel to Aussie SAS and American troops, and thus got the cookies when it came time to set up another state of red tape bureaucracy.

[Bobboau]

as I understand the situation, the people there are beond tired of the sheer uslessness of the non-government we've left there, they want water, power, and some small amount of order, not to mention us the hell out of there. I'm fairly confedent the new constitution will pass if only out of deperation that it might posably get something resembleing a government in place that can get something resembleing basic services opperational again.

[aldo_14]

Ultimately, the Sunnis realise the only way to be rid of the US* is to go for a political process, because the US wouldn't be able to refuse a request to leave by the Iraqi government.  I think it's a question of status quo, or anything else, and it makes sense for them choosing the 'anything else' option.  Because at the end of the day, even if the constitution was scrapped, it'd still be a majority Shia/Kurd coalition dictating the contents of the next version.

*of course, the US isn't the only country there, but it's the one engaged in the most combat and definately the most within Sunni majority areas.

[Rictor]

Originally posted by aldo_14
Ultimately, the Sunnis realise the only way to be rid of the US* is to go for a political process, because the US wouldn't be able to refuse a request to leave by the Iraqi government.

Que pas?

[vyper]

Because if they didn't they'd be starting a war with the government they installed.

[aldo_14]

And so long as Iraq is in the current state, they can't withdrawn without committing political suicide; not only would it be a humiliating defeat to so so blatantly withdraw without 'winning', it'd remove any chance the US has in scaring the likes of Syria and Iran into co-operation.  It'd also be giving even more fuel to the flames of Islamic fundamentalism (as if invading Iraq hadn't done a good enough job at that).

At least if the Iraqi government asks them to leave, the US can maintain an illusion of dignity (and scapegoat the Iraqis when the country collapses into civil war).  Albeit I don't know exactly how they'll sort out the 20 (or so; not sure) military bases the US have already began building for their long term strategic use.

[Rictor]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4367356.stm

Updates...sort of. Basically, no one really knows yet. Seems they've only counted about 20% of the votes. One Sunni province seems to have rejected it, but three are needed to scuttle the constitution.