[Rictor]

http://pajamasmedia.com/2007/01/supreme_leader_ayatollah_ali_k.php

Word of warning: Pajamas Media is the hardcore right-wing blogging HQ. There are conflicting reports, and no major news organizations have confirmed whether he is indeed dead. But apparently he's been hospitalized and is in grave condition, so the difference may not matter that much. Chances are he's going to replaced one way or another, since he can't preform his duties.

This is certainly an...interesting development. The Supreme Leader is the highest figure in Iranian society. He has the final say on almost all matters. There's already been a mini power-struggle during last month's elections to see which faction would get a majority in the body which elects the Supreme Leader.

Personally, this is starting to look like a perfect storm in the making. Khamenei dies, there's an internal power struggle, the UN has just imposed sanctions, the US or Israel may yet attack Iranian nuclear facilities, Ahmadinejad is pressing full-steam ahead with the nuclear program, Saudi Arabia has turned up the anti-Iranian rhetoric lately, the US is planning more troops to bring the Shi'ite militias under control, Hezbollah is trying to topple the government....it starting to look like a very combustible situation. There are a million factors involved, everyone is playing their own game but more on-edge than is usual, even for the Middle East.

[Starkweather]

As Gary Brecher said, if this does explode, genocide will probably go wth it, that or NBC

[TrashMan]

I heard Iran wants to switch all transactions with oil to Euro, and other countries were expressing similar sentiments. Something like that would cause havoc with the USA economy.

A storm in the Iranian leadership is juse so convininent for the Us...

[Harbinger of DOOM]

Meh, I'm thinkin the CIA put some **** in his drink......
or something.

[vyper]

... why?

[Harbinger of DOOM]

'cause I'm a conspiracy nut! Thats why! LOL

[Rictor]

But it could go either way. The US has as much to lose as it has to gain. Khamenei was/is a "status quo" guy. He vetoed some of the more reformist candidates but he also kept the hardliners in check. A new Supreme Leader could re-invigorate the conservative elements within Iran and turn turn back (or try) the creeping reforms and disillusionment with the Islamic system. He could also be more pro-active abroad. Khamenei has effectively been a steadying force and he's kept Ahmadinejad on a pretty short leash. If that were to change,  the US and Israel could be facing a muuch different Iran. But then again, it next Supreme Leader could be Rasfanjani or one of his buddies, in which case the conservatives (Iranian that is) would have the carpet pulled out from under their feet.

I heard Iran wants to switch all transactions with oil to Euro, and other countries were expressing similar sentiments. Something like that would cause havoc with the USA economy.

They've already started doing it, just a little while ago. But I don't think that alone would have too much of a negative effect on the dollar. The dollar is already doing badly, and other, more powerful countries (like China)are slowly starting to convert a portion of their foreign reserves into Euros. Venezuela was also planning to sell its oil in Euros, but I don't know what's going on with that.

As Gary Brecher said, if this does explode, genocide will probably go wth it, that or NBC

Every once in a while, I just hope for a massive, epic, awesome war in the Middle East. What a sight that would be! Cause Iranians are tough and they're smart. No offence to Arabs, but they can't fight for **** and are too stupid to so much as fly a plane, much less build one. Persians on the other hand, are willy people, and Iran has enough manpower and conventional weapons to create a glorious war. Oh please God, let Bush be stupid enough to go pick a fight with Iran. Because they've been tooling up for it for 15 years.

[Herra Tohtori]

Reuters: Iran says no truth to rumour of Khamenei death

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - Iran's U.N. ambassador denied on Friday reports circulating on the Internet that Tehran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had died.

"We checked last night and there is no truth to it," Javad Zarif, Iran's chief envoy to the United Nations, told Reuters about the reports, which first appeared on Web sites on Thursday.

The Internet rumors were circulating among traders in energy and other financial markets, but had not moved prices.

In Tehran, relatives of Khamenei dismissed the rumors, which they said had been circulating for several days, and said he was in good health.

One Iranian source said Khamenei was expected to lead prayers during a religious holiday on Monday.

Khamenei has been Iran's highest authority since 1989.

Presuming that the Iranians (?) are telling the truth, I would trust Reuters more than Pajamas Media.

Then again, it's entirely possible that they are not. Meh, I guess we'll see in time.

[TrashMan]

I heard Iran wants to switch all transactions with oil to Euro, and other countries were expressing similar sentiments. Something like that would cause havoc with the USA economy.

They've already started doing it, just a little while ago. But I don't think that alone would have too much of a negative effect on the dollar. The dollar is already doing badly, and other, more powerful countries (like China)are slowly starting to convert a portion of their foreign reserves into Euros. Venezuela was also planning to sell its oil in Euros, but I don't know what's going on with that.

US media are surprisingly tight-lipped with this info.

It's all over hte newspapers here and analysts are seeing black. While Iran going over to Euro by itself is not THAT big a thing, it's desission to finally do so is moving other oil exporting countries inot doing it themselves.

The US economy is tied to the "petrodolar", basicly giving the US a free lunch from the global oil market. Last I checked hte US has a huge external deficit, that is only possible due to the "petrodolar". If that crumbles, the US economy might very well collapse like a house of cards...

[IceFire]

Unfortunately that collapse will take quite a few other economies down with it.  Or at least throw them into chaos.  This is not going to be pretty if this is whats going to go down over the next year.  None of the major new outlets are carrying this story right now but rumors usually start from somewhere.  I'm interested to see where this leads if anywhere.

[Janos]

As Gary Brecher said, if this does explode, genocide will probably go wth it, that or NBC

SOUND THE ALARM KLAXONS NOW NOW NOW

[NGTM-1R]

Every once in a while, I just hope for a massive, epic, awesome war in the Middle East. What a sight that would be! Cause Iranians are tough and they're smart. No offence to Arabs, but they can't fight for **** and are too stupid to so much as fly a plane, much less build one. Persians on the other hand, are willy people, and Iran has enough manpower and conventional weapons to create a glorious war. Oh please God, let Bush be stupid enough to go pick a fight with Iran. Because they've been tooling up for it for 15 years.

You could say the same of Iraq. Look where it got them. No, Iran would just be Iraq currently on a somewhat larger scale.

The only real conventional warfare option Iran has is to dump all the mines they can lay hands on into the Straits of Hormuz. This however would piss off most of the world, and the US is much better equipped for mine warfare then it was five years ago. (Not to mention that pretty much everyone can be expected to send in their minehunters in that event.)