careful about that crossfire thinking. that always seems to be the most future-proof option, but really by the time you get around to it, it would be more effective to replace with a newer single card. i had that plan with my 4850, but throwing a second one in now wouldn't do me as well as coughing up for a 5k series.
i haven't looked at the 5k series in great detail, but if they follow form, the 5850 will pretty much be a slower clocked 5870. the 5830 might skimp on a couple things. if memory serves, it has lower memory bandwidth and such. if you've got the cash, go for it. if you feel like saving some, the 5770 should be pretty much the same horsepower as a 4870 with the latest bells and whistles. i don't know how heavy into the games you are, but you really don't need the latest hardware to run things decently. i get by in crysis with a 4850 and an AMD 5600+, 2gb ram.
as for why NVIDIA has fallen, they were happy to ride out their brand name for far too long, and didn't really develop anything new. they pretty much just keep upping the horsepower. have they even graduated to GDDR5 yet? last i saw, their top lines were still on 3.