Author Topic: Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two  (Read 1941 times)

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Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two

 

Offline General Battuta

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Re: Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two
now THAT'S more like it

ed: come on hayek, who puts food on shelves except supermarkets
« Last Edit: April 28, 2011, 05:32:24 pm by General Battuta »

 

Offline General Battuta

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Re: Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two
Hayek dominated most of that one; his argument about complexity in the economy was absolutely right. That said, I'm not sure his argument there necessarily made a good case against the bailouts.

I suspect the behavioral schools have made a good argument that some regulation is necessary to avoid inherent snarls in the emergent behavior of multiple humans - animal spirits, yeah, I went there. Dramatic action might help assuage those panics. If that was what worked in cleaning up the Great Recession, the question's going to be whether we can now cut back and stabilize the deficit. Voting in some fiscal conservatives might be just what the system needs.
« Last Edit: April 28, 2011, 06:00:11 pm by General Battuta »

 

Offline redsniper

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Re: Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two
fiscal conservatives
We don't have any of those. In a position to get elected, I mean.
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Offline General Battuta

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Re: Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two

 
Re: Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two
The really notable thing about the US economy is that it's just about the only place where these kind of financial crises happen. What's today the EU overall has held quite stable growth rates except for the repeated crises in 1929, 1980, 1991, the early 2000s and 2008 caused by speculatory bubbles in the United States. Monetary policy and banking regulation in most other developed countries is at least as loose, so those common explanations alone aren't convincing.

It's interesting to look at changes in income inequality as well to explain why the US has these problems. The Gini Index is a measure of inequality; basically the higher it is the further income deviates from an equal distribution. Note how it was highest in 1929 and the late 2000s- the biggest messes. The bad news is that after the GFC inequality continued to increase.


So income inequality and borrowing more than anything else were probably the causes of the recession. Unsustainable borrowing from easy credit combined with large incomes at the top allowed for speculation by private investors. Subprime mortgages got things started but it was reckless speculation by upper income investors that really fed the housing bubble.

The real vindication of Keynes as far as the rap battle is concerned is how much more smoothly things went after 2007 compared to 1929 when countercyclical policy wasn't immediately applied. However neither he nor Hayek offer a good explanation of the kind of malinvestment and unwise lending seen recently or why the US financial system in particular is so prone to crisis. If the government had instead done something like regulating down payments before mortgages went out of control, or simply taxing the rich to check their borrowing, the bubble would have burst earlier and with much less severity.

But I just made this thread because I thought it was a cool video.

 

Offline General Battuta

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Re: Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two
It was a really well done video, kicked the **** out of Epic Rap Battles of History (Vader vs. Hitler and Hawking vs. Einstein are, however, decent matchups).

 
Re: Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two
I suspect the behavioral schools have made a good argument that some regulation is necessary to avoid inherent snarls in the emergent behavior of multiple humans - animal spirits, yeah, I went there. Dramatic action might help assuage those panics. If that was what worked in cleaning up the Great Recession, the question's going to be whether we can now cut back and stabilize the deficit. Voting in some fiscal conservatives might be just what the system needs.

Maybe that's the buzz right now but animal spirits needn't even come into play. Political pressure on banks to raise home ownership and the pyramid-scheme nature of speculation were big factors. Also, a lot of the behavior we saw wasn't really emergent; it only takes a few idiots to screw up an economy regardless of how everyone else behaves and the failure of credit ratings agencies, possibly because of bribes, as well as principal-agent and moral hazard problems (the Lehman executives never paid for what they did, rather they were offered jobs almost immediately after their firm went bankrupt) can explain the rationality of individual behaviors.

And it's too still early to cut the deficit without production dropping further below capacity. Tax increases are fine but spending should be kept up until credit loosens and consumers deleverage enough to spend again. Both parties just want to shrink deficit not debt into the next decade. This is probably a little much but right now isn't the time to start paying back debt.
« Last Edit: April 28, 2011, 07:10:35 pm by Mustang19 »

 

Offline General Battuta

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Re: Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two
You clearly know way more about this than I do but since I want to keep you talking, while the initial impetus may not be emergent what happens when the shock filters down to the rank and file? When consumers tighten spending and pull out of banks that can really put a damp on interbank lending and revenue. Is that less of a problem than I think it is?

Most of the econ (and associated behavioral econ) I know is micro, it's an open question whether a lot of glaring psychological biases on the micro level filter up to the macro.

 
Re: Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two
You clearly know way more about this than I do

Probably less than you think, but I will continue to pretend not to have ten wikipedia tabs open.

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but since I want to keep you talking, while the initial impetus may not be emergent what happens when the shock filters down to the rank and file? When consumers tighten spending and pull out of banks that can really put a damp on interbank lending and revenue. Is that less of a problem than I think it is?

That happened, but debt is more responsible for the crisis than consumer spending. What usually happens in a financial crisis is that economic agents purchase large amounts of assets (land, dot com stocks, etc) on credit that suddenly become illiquid (impossible to sell without significant loss in value). In the housing bubble for instance it eventually became impossible for the price of housing to continue to rise when the people playing the housing game ran out of available credit and were unable to continue, resulting in a collapse of the demand that was holding up prices. Because investors have sunk their wealth into now-worthless assets they are unable to pay off their debts, making banks unable to continue lending as they had before. So it isn't a sudden fall in animal spirits so much as inability to repay debts that bursts the bubble. It's debatable how much animal spirits have to do with inflating bubbles in the first place.

Consumer spending can help the economy recover when the financial system is dislocated and firms must rely on profits rather than borrowing to expand or sustain production. But consumer spending is not going to cause a crisis when it is too low. Countries like India maintain a high and growing savings rate because savings get lent out to firms. What happens in a financial crisis is that any savings become inaccessible to people who might invest them productively due to the dysfunctional financial system. Consumers withdrawing money from deposit accounts and not spending it doesn't help, though, as it hinders banks from returning to profitability and lending again.

The credit cycle explains this particular type of economic crisis quite well.

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Most of the econ (and associated behavioral econ) I know is micro, it's an open question whether a lot of glaring psychological biases on the micro level filter up to the macro.

What do you mean by psychological biases? A lot of the market failures that might be attributed to instinctive judgements could also be attributed to imperfect information flows, game theory and perverse incentives.
« Last Edit: April 28, 2011, 08:25:47 pm by Mustang19 »

 

Offline General Battuta

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Re: Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two
Something that pops up a lot in microeconomic analysis is endowment effect. There's also risk aversion with respect to gains but risk seeking with respect to losses.

 
Re: Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two
The endowment effect doesn't really apply to financial instruments as they are usually purchased to be exchanged at profit. Cognitive biases and risk calculations do affect investment decisions though. Just like it makes sense to regulate gambling it makes sense to keep asset prices matching long-run returns.

I can't say I'm one for behavioral economics. National and international stuff is more my thing.

 

Offline General Battuta

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Re: Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two
Behavioral economics is a critical new frontier in economic study because it allows social psychologists to feel 75% more important at parties.

  
Re: Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two
Indeed. However unlike other types of economics no one has yet found a way to make money with it. It's a pity, since mind control ought to pay pretty well.