They can't drive the price too high, either. This is business, afterall, if they made oil prices too high, suddenly silly stuff like burning weed in a powerplant becomes viable (this was actually done once, after a particularly massive drug seizure). Shortage will drive the prices up, up to a point people won't be able to afford oil at all. And it will also drive the costs up, pretty much without regard of anyone being able to afford the stuff. Your assumption works on short term, but remember, this can't quite go on forever. Lobby is one thing, but at some point even bribing everyone won't do. While I know plenty of politicians that would ruin their own country to make a quick buck, someone is going to realize oil has literally no advantages when it's more expensive than (ridiculously expensive today) solar power. This is going to happen someday, simply for the reason of people generally wanting to spend less money. You can see it now with hybrid cars. Prices became too high, and suddenly companies like Tesla became a smashing success. Not because they're clean, because electricity is cheaper than gasoline. If at some point oil is gonna cost more than LH2, then someone will, sooner or later, start selling LH2 conversion kits for cars and powerplants. And then start selling LH2, and making profits off that. Instead of driving oil prices up, oil companies should begin acquiring nuclear technology, otherwise they're going to come crashing down when someone else brings it into market. It's a bubble, and it's going to burst, eventually.
