Author Topic: Will the next election be H4x0r3d?  (Read 3752 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline aldo_14

  • Gunnery Control
  • 213
Re: Will the next election be H4x0r3d?
Though honestly, if the US can't exert control over a third world country of 25 milion, what are the chances it could control a prosperous and advanced contintent of 500 million? Hell, the US probably couldn't even hold on to Albania for more than a few years.
Aside from the complications of a considerably larger population, I would wager it would be far easier to control a prosperous and advanced area compared to a nation like Iraq. Think about it; when you have a high standard of living, you've got a lot to lose.

When you have a high standard of living you also have a high standard of education and can afford to place a higher value upon freedom - all the most 'succesful' despotic regimes follow a basic principle of keeping the masses so poor and downtrodden that their daily lives are focused upon survival rather than the failures of their leaders.

 

Offline Rictor

  • Murdered by Brazilian Psychopath
  • 29
Re: Will the next election be H4x0r3d?
It's a moot point, since the US wouldn't have a hope of getting past Europe's conventional military. Countries like Iraq have to rely on insurgenct tactics to drive out foreign occupiers, since their army is weak and badly equipped. But the EU's combined military might could easily match anything out there, including the US and Russia. Practically every EU country possess the newest and shiniest military technologies, a far cry from Saddam's barely functioning T-72s.

 

Offline BlackDove

  • Star Killer
  • 211
  • Section 3 of the GTVI
    • http://www.shatteredstar.org
Re: Will the next election be H4x0r3d?
...why would the US invade the EU? EU is the US' unofficial colony. :wtf:

 

Offline redmenace

  • 211
Re: Will the next election be H4x0r3d?
As far as loosing a major war, the eventual conflict with China over Taiwan would do that. Although, I disagree with China's "claim" to Taiwan, I would doubt Europe would stand by Taiwan. They have as much claim to it as they did Tibet.
Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else.
              -Frederic Bastiat

 

Offline aldo_14

  • Gunnery Control
  • 213
Re: Will the next election be H4x0r3d?
...why would the US invade the EU? EU is the US' unofficial colony. :wtf:

Well, the UK is, maybe....

 

Offline Shade

  • 211
Re: Will the next election be H4x0r3d?
Besides, I think the US is the one country France would never, ever surrender to. Not after the whole 'freedom fries' thing. That made it personal. You might catch them off guard while they're busy winetasting or making cheese though :p
Report FS_Open bugs with Mantis  |  Find the latest FS_Open builds Here  |  Interested in FRED? Check out the Wiki's FRED Portal | Diaspora: Website / Forums
"Oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooh ****ing great. 2200 references to entry->index and no idea which is the one that ****ed up" - Karajorma
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct." - Niels Bohr
<Cobra|> You play this mission too intelligently.

 

Offline NGTM-1R

  • I reject your reality and substitute my own
  • 213
  • Syndral Active. 0410.
Re: Will the next election be H4x0r3d?
It's a moot point, since the US wouldn't have a hope of getting past Europe's conventional military. Countries like Iraq have to rely on insurgenct tactics to drive out foreign occupiers, since their army is weak and badly equipped. But the EU's combined military might could easily match anything out there, including the US and Russia. Practically every EU country possess the newest and shiniest military technologies, a far cry from Saddam's barely functioning T-72s.

This is somewhat disingenious.

Allow me to explain.

For a brief period of time around 2000, people actually grew interested in the possiblities of such a conflict. The general consensus was the if all the conventional-weapons stops were pulled out, the EU would lose. However no one would be so mad as to actually try to invade Europe. There are other and simpler ways of bringing a country to its knees.

Europe is still dependant upon oil imports, for example. And the United States Navy is more then capable of shutting them off either at the source or en route. Since the demise of the Soviet Union the truth is that the world's oceans have become a US lake. Nobody else can put together a two-carrier, much less four-carrier, battlegroup. Nobody else can provide a halfway decent escort force. (Germany comes closest, perversely. France has yet to deploy a decent area air-defence platform, while the UK's Type 42s are hampered by small missile magazines and would be easily overwhelmed. Italy has some good ships, but their missile systems are becoming dated.)

Whether the war would last beyond footage of the Andrea Doria, De Gaulle, or Invincible engulfed in flames after having sustained multiple missile hits is an open question. But the navies of Europe in the end cannot compete.
"Load sabot. Target Zaku, direct front!"

A Feddie Story

 

Offline Turambar

  • Determined to inflict his entire social circle on us
  • 210
  • You can't spell Manslaughter without laughter
Re: Will the next election be H4x0r3d?
Besides, I think the US is the one country France would never, ever surrender to. Not after the whole 'freedom fries' thing. That made it personal. You might catch them off guard while they're busy winetasting or making cheese though :p

rofl.
10:55:48   TurambarBlade: i've been selecting my generals based on how much i like their hats
10:55:55   HerraTohtori: me too!
10:56:01   HerraTohtori: :D

 

Offline aldo_14

  • Gunnery Control
  • 213
Re: Will the next election be H4x0r3d?
And China or Middle Eastern countries could step in and provide oil in replacement; already 45% comes from the Middle East, 18% Africa, 30% Europe (Norway providing 20% alone).  The EU imports less than 3% of its oil from the US - and the alternate sources can be reached via land pipelines.  So at most the Us would see China or Russia becoming hegemonious over the EU.  Perversely, the one country really vulnerable to this tactic would be the UK, the US' closest ally.  And how vulnerable would other US interests be with a mass-naval deployment over the atlantic?

(of course, if we extend hypotheticals into the future, any sort of prolonged US-EU hostility would see a far stronger EU naval threat to the US; at present the EU does not need a strong naval presence, only the UK has any sort of recent tradition in that area).  I do find the seeming assumption that the EU would roll over and die after losing a carrier, whereas the Us would not (even though such an incident is surely far more damaging to the away side), rather interesting.

 

Offline Shade

  • 211
Re: Will the next election be H4x0r3d?
Quote
Europe is still dependant upon oil imports, for example. And the United States Navy is more then capable of shutting them off either at the source or en route.
There are a couple of things you're forgetting:

A) Europe is connected by land with both the arabian peninsula and russia, which have some of the largest oil reserves in the world. No need for sea transport. Plus, several european countries are net exporters of oil and don't need to worry about that at all.
B) Europe doesn't need carriers to defend those from US carriers, as there's, you know, land. With airbases on it.
C) While the combined european airforces do not stand up to the USAF, they don't need to. They only need to stand up to carrier based aircraft as the atlantic is too great a gap to bridge for fighters with a combat load. And then we're suddenly talking a 10:1 advantage to europe, as well as a technological edge as Eurofighters are far superior to any carrier based aircraft.
D) European military radar systems are good enough to detect stealth aircraft. Or more specifically, they can detect the air turbulence created by them. So little advantage there.
E) And let's not forget that just as the US possesses the means to disable the Galileo sattelite network once that becomes operational, so do european forces possess the ability to disable GPS at will.
F) The US has exactly jack and ****'s worth of troop landing capability these days. Europe would actually be more capable of invading the US than the other way around, as at least it still retains the ability to land several divisions' worth in a short-ish time.

Basically though, it's very simple: Whichever side is defending will win. Because what it comes down to is you have an entire continent versus whatever the other side can put on ships, which currently isn't much at all as far as land forces go, and really only slightly better for aircraft as even 10 carriers matter very little when they've got 2000+ state-of-the-art land-based fighters to contend with.

If it was on the same continent, the US would most likely be the winner, but lets face it - There just aren't that many countries on the same continent as the US ;)
Report FS_Open bugs with Mantis  |  Find the latest FS_Open builds Here  |  Interested in FRED? Check out the Wiki's FRED Portal | Diaspora: Website / Forums
"Oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooh ****ing great. 2200 references to entry->index and no idea which is the one that ****ed up" - Karajorma
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct." - Niels Bohr
<Cobra|> You play this mission too intelligently.

 

Offline NGTM-1R

  • I reject your reality and substitute my own
  • 213
  • Syndral Active. 0410.
Re: Will the next election be H4x0r3d?
A) Europe is connected by land with both the arabian peninsula and russia, which have some of the largest oil reserves in the world. No need for sea transport. Plus, several european countries are net exporters of oil and don't need to worry about that at all.

There's no land pipe route. It comes in by ship. People have been trying to build a land route for years, but it's never worked. Good luck finding enough tanker trucks. Even if there was a land route, it wouldn't be particularly difficult to cruise up the Persian Gulf and cut it at the source. Besides, oil isn't the only thing. Making the economy collapse due to loss overseas trade has been used to bring the Continent to its knees before.

B) Europe doesn't need carriers to defend those from US carriers, as there's, you know, land. With airbases on it.

Already invalidated by the above.

It is furthermore instructive to consider that in the few times this has been studied by professionals, 6th Fleet, the USN's Mediterranian force, has generally been considered able to blast its way out of the Med using the resources of a single CVBG. This is in the face of combined opposition from Greece, Turkey, Spain, France, and Italy. The Med is a lake to a carrier, and there is no safety from shore-based air attack to be found anywhere in it.

I don't think you fully grasp just what you're dealing with here. A single US CVBG is fully capable of sending any country into the world back to the Industrial Revolution; it would just take longer for some then for others. A single CVBG has more combat power then the airforces of all the Scandinavian countries combined. If they were all to turn on the EU, it would have a serious problem, and you're telling me a carrier battlegroup, let alone two or three, isn't? A carrier alone has more aircraft then all but the largest of land bases. Its escorts add further striking power in the form of cruise missiles, against which there remains no seriously viable defense. If your runways and aircraft are destroyed by Tomahawk strikes then it doesn't really help, y'know? Now that the Improved Spruance is in regular service Tomahawks have gotten pretty common. You could shut down half the airfields in Britain with a single strike-loadout Spruance. Only for a few hours perhaps, but you could do a lot of damage then.

A CVBG has defenses superior to any land base. They were designed to stand off multiregiment Backfire raids, which is about as scary as modern air attack gets. Compared to 50-odd Backfires with AS-6 missiles anything the EU can muster comes across as a joke. Yes, they have some good strike aircraft, but they are not supersonic bombers packing missiles with one-ton warheads. The best maritime strike aircraft the EU can currently muster is the Tornado when equipped with Sea Eagle missiles. Assuming you could get them all together at once, that'd be a fairly impressive force even in a carrier skipper's eyes. But they will not, of course, be all together at once. Finding sixty of them in the same place would be difficult. Their payload is considerably less then a Backfire and their weapons less powerful, but they carry the same absolute number of missiles: two. It is to be noted that the Sea Eagle has a shorter range then the SM2-MR SAM used by almost all US surface ships currently in service, much less the SM2-ER that is the province of a carrier's main escorts. Even if not intercepted they will take losses before launching their weapons. It is also to be noted that several countries don't even have that option. France relies on the air-launched version of the Exocet for its needs, which is even shorter ranged then the Sea Eagle. Several countries like Spain and Turkey don't even have dedicated maritime strike weapons in their inventory.

C) While the combined european airforces do not stand up to the USAF, they don't need to. They only need to stand up to carrier based aircraft as the atlantic is too great a gap to bridge for fighters with a combat load. And then we're suddenly talking a 10:1 advantage to europe, as well as a technological edge as Eurofighters are far superior to any carrier based aircraft.

Advantage is less then you think. A lot. Operational realities dictate that you would have difficulty bringing more the 150 aircraft to bear against a single carrier, which itself has about seventy planes. Slightly more then two-to-one, with the advantages of the carrier being not vunerable to cruise missile strikes and possessing superior defenses to a land base.

Good as the Eurofighter is, it is not as good as you think. It exists in relatively small numbers. There are only about 200 in squadron service spread across multiple countries. The majority of any air-defense effort would fall into the hands of Tornado ADVs or Mirage 2000s. France shouldn't have been allowed to have a say in the design, either, as the Eurofighter inherited the Mirage series' poor look-down shoot-down capablity.

Worth remembering that the B-52H and B-1B can still make it across the Atlantic with a full weapons load. Technically however they don't even need to do that. Equipped with AGM-86C missiles the B-1B or B-52H can reach 800 nautical miles. A B-1B can deliever 24 of these missiles in a single mission. The B-52H can only carry half as many. Each is only slightly inferior to a Tomahawk as a weapon. With six B-1Bs you can deliever 144 missiles in a mission from beyond a range at which you would  be detected, let alone intercepted.

D) European military radar systems are good enough to detect stealth aircraft. Or more specifically, they can detect the air turbulence created by them. So little advantage there.

At short range. Regardless stealth aircraft would play a small role anyways, so this is rather moot.

E) And let's not forget that just as the US possesses the means to disable the Galileo sattelite network once that becomes operational, so do european forces possess the ability to disable GPS at will.

I severely doubt that's true. They can probably tap into it if it goes encrypted still (probably), but in any case the loss would not matter too much. GPS is nice but all US ships and aircraft have backup inertial gear that's really just as accurate.

F) The US has exactly jack and ****'s worth of troop landing capability these days. Europe would actually be more capable of invading the US than the other way around, as at least it still retains the ability to land several divisions' worth in a short-ish time.

I have already proved that such an invasion would not be necessary. However, just to prove you wrong, sitting here in the harbor at San Diego is enough trooplift for a Marine brigade. There is an Army mechanized infantry divsion's more at Pearl Harbor. Then there is a Phibron always available for the Med, the Pacific, and Atlantic (the Med one has currently been occupied with Iraq) for another three brigades. Little Creek has enough members of the Gator Navy for an Army heavy division.

That's four Marine brigades and two divisions of Army troops. Counting the predeployment ships you could add another three brigades of Army troops as well. Not enough perhaps to go head to head with the combined might of the European powers, but they would not be asked to. (The most likely use of any of the Gator Navy would be the capture of Gibralter and Iceland, which they have more then enough trooplift to accomplish.

Europe by contrast has little in the way of trooplift. The French can lift about two brigades of light troops, RN about a division and a half. Spain, Italy, and the Scandinavian countries have no amphibous capablity worthy of the name. Turkey and Greece can lift about a brigade and a half each, but only for short distances. Call it two divisions, then. Just to make things worse nobody in the EU is capable of over-the-horizon landing ops (via LCAC) like the USN is.

they've got 2000+ state-of-the-art land-based fighters to contend with.

You vastly overestimate the size and quality of the European airforces. 700-1000 frontline fighters backed up by about 500 second-rate ones and another thousand or so attack aircraft is a much more realistic estimate.


In short, sir, I really don't believe you have a damn clue what you're talking about. I have long made a study of naval and air matters. You're just blowing smoke.
"Load sabot. Target Zaku, direct front!"

A Feddie Story

 

Offline Nuke

  • Ka-Boom!
  • 212
  • Mutants Worship Me
Re: Will the next election be H4x0r3d?
of course the usa would hit the nuclear trigger before it would allow itself to loose :D
I can no longer sit back and allow communist infiltration, communist indoctrination, communist subversion, and the international communist conspiracy to sap and impurify all of our precious bodily fluids.

Nuke's Scripting SVN

 

Offline Mefustae

  • 210
  • Chevron locked...
Re: Will the next election be H4x0r3d?
Indeed, the ease and simplicity of hitting the 6th with a nuke and wiping it out cold is just too damn juicy an oppertunity to pass up.

 

Offline Kosh

  • A year behind what's funny
  • 210
Re: Will the next election be H4x0r3d?
As far as loosing a major war, the eventual conflict with China over Taiwan would do that. Although, I disagree with China's "claim" to Taiwan, I would doubt Europe would stand by Taiwan. They have as much claim to it as they did Tibet.


It historically was a part of China. The whole Taiwan issue is just unfinished business from the civil war.
"The reason for this is that the original Fortran got so convoluted and extensive (10's of millions of lines of code) that no-one can actually figure out how it works, there's a massive project going on to decode the original Fortran and write a more modern system, but until then, the UK communication network is actually relying heavily on 35 year old Fortran that nobody understands." - Flipside

Brain I/O error
Replace and press any key

 

Offline redmenace

  • 211
Re: Will the next election be H4x0r3d?
Yes a civil was that was mostly funded from the Russians IIRC. The people don't want to be part of the PRC. The only reason as I understand it that they haven't declared independence is that they are afraid of invasion.
Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else.
              -Frederic Bastiat

 

Offline Kosh

  • A year behind what's funny
  • 210
Re: Will the next election be H4x0r3d?
Yes a civil was that was mostly funded from the Russians IIRC. The people don't want to be part of the PRC. The only reason as I understand it that they haven't declared independence is that they are afraid of invasion.


The Russians funded the commie side to some degree, and the US gave several billion dollars in funding (no small amount) to the nationalists, but they just pissed it all away. Biggest reason they lost were because they were extremely corrupt.

The people don't want to be part of the PRC yet, but the new head of the KMT said it would happen when the PRC became democratic. Not sure when that's going to happen.
"The reason for this is that the original Fortran got so convoluted and extensive (10's of millions of lines of code) that no-one can actually figure out how it works, there's a massive project going on to decode the original Fortran and write a more modern system, but until then, the UK communication network is actually relying heavily on 35 year old Fortran that nobody understands." - Flipside

Brain I/O error
Replace and press any key

 

Offline redmenace

  • 211
Re: Will the next election be H4x0r3d?
When pigs fly?

That is actually a very crafty answer[what the new head of KMT said]. But there might have to be further changes to economics in China because Taiwan, IIRC, has a very competitive electronics industry. Particularly MB manufacturing. My understanding is that it is run with very little government interference.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2006, 04:59:50 am by redmenace »
Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else.
              -Frederic Bastiat

  

Offline Shade

  • 211
Re: Will the next election be H4x0r3d?
Quote
I have long made a study of naval and air matters.
I'm sure you have. It's just a pity you're basing your studies on obsolete information. Lets take an example:

You say europe as a whole can only field 700-1000 front line fighters? I find this claim odd, as the scandinavian countries alone can account for 4-500 up to date fighters (with Sweden having the best of them with the Gripen). So the rest of europe have just 500 between them? Hard to believe, we're just not that militaristic here, and I sincerely doubt we could actually kick the rest of europe's ass in an air war.

And then we can move on to naval matters. Between them, the scandinavian countries field upwards of 50 warships that mount harpoons or better for surface combat (some actually mounting stealth missiles with a considerably greater range than harpoons, I think they were originally designed for taking out soviet missile cruisers but they rolled them out just recently anyway), and about 10 modern submarines.

I can't really fault you for not knowing though, as much of the hardware has been rolled out over the last 5 years and you'd pretty much have to be here or be in the business to know about it.

Anyway, I don't doubt that the US might win - But it's far from the certainty you seem to think it would be. It would be a fight to see, that's for sure... though I think we're all glad we'll never actually see it ;)
Report FS_Open bugs with Mantis  |  Find the latest FS_Open builds Here  |  Interested in FRED? Check out the Wiki's FRED Portal | Diaspora: Website / Forums
"Oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooh ****ing great. 2200 references to entry->index and no idea which is the one that ****ed up" - Karajorma
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct." - Niels Bohr
<Cobra|> You play this mission too intelligently.