[Androgeos Exeunt]

What I like is how similar yet different BP and INF play this out. In both, the GTVA gains ground only after the Vasudans start helping out. The difference is that, in BP, the moralities are rather grey, whereas in INF, the black and white is more obvious.

Also, INFR1 had the Vela and its Cargo.

[Mars]

What I like is how similar yet different BP and INF play this out. In both, the GTVA gains ground only after the Vasudans start helping out. The difference is that, in BP, the moralities are rather grey, whereas in INF, the black and white is more obvious.

Also, INFR1 had the Vela and its Cargo.

Er. . . that's not so true in BP. The Vasudan's role thus far in the story has been pretty limited.

[Rheyah]

No, Beta Aquilae would be.  Sol is likely between fifteen and twenty five years behind technologically given the complete integration of the vastly superior Vasudan power systems and joint Terran-Vasudan developed beam cannons.  I mean back then the GTA were using argon based laser weapons.  By the end of Freespace 2 they're using large scale anti-matter warheads, directed energy beam cannons and (absurdly) quantum foam weapons.

I don't care how big your mass driver is or how many 25mm cannons you can shoot at once.  The weapons the GTVA use collapse matter.  Sol would need a complete rebuilding and a very quick technological catch up to be ready for the next hegemonic swarm.  It would likely give a huge boost to the Terran side of the GTVA though, economically, in morale and in industrial capacity.

They'd need to be.  Shivans are stubborn.

[headdie]

No, Beta Aquilae would be.  Sol is likely between fifteen and twenty five years behind technologically given the complete integration of the vastly superior Vasudan power systems and joint Terran-Vasudan developed beam cannons.  I mean back then the GTA were using argon based laser weapons.  By the end of Freespace 2 they're using large scale anti-matter warheads, directed energy beam cannons and (absurdly) quantum foam weapons.

I don't care how big your mass driver is or how many 25mm cannons you can shoot at once.  The weapons the GTVA use collapse matter.  Sol would need a complete rebuilding and a very quick technological catch up to be ready for the next hegemonic swarm.  It would likely give a huge boost to the Terran side of the GTVA though, economically, in morale and in industrial capacity.

They'd need to be.  Shivans are stubborn.

the FS1 tsunami bomb was an antimatter warhead.  also in BP canon while not a match in damage those beams in pure damage the main guns on UEF ships have superior range and still do significant damage, enough so that they would have utility should the GTVA decide to use them.

[Buckshee Rounds]

The Terran half of the GTVA was split into different blocks after the GTA was dissolved. Even after they are nominally unified under the GTVA the NTF rebellion occurs. I think this underlines how factionalised the Terrans of the GTVA are. Now imagine the conditions that existed after Capella went Nova: thousands of displaced refugees, a shattered and demoralised military and a public that pretty much has little to no faith left in the GTVA's capability to defend the Terran-Vasudan species. On top of that there's the long and painful task of assimilating Sirius, Polaris and Regulus back into the fold. Not to mention the possibility of a dormant HoL returning (if not militarily then on some level at least).

Let's assume that despite all the conditions for complete collapse that somehow they manage to keep it all together. Then imagine that contact with Sol is reastablished. I think it could easily be the catalyst for several power plays within the GTVA, Terran and Vasudan alike. There's no way the GTVA comes out of FS2 intact, there's every possiblity that their authority would be bypassed or resisted by local stellar governments that want to take matters into their own hands. There would be a reckoning against those whose duty it was to keep the systems of the GTVA safe, it's impossible that there wouldn't be. My point is, if Sol and the GTVA were to reastablish contact it would not be Sol or the GTVA as we know it (not that we "know" Sol but I digress). Personally I don't believe the GTVA would exist beyond Capella.

Sol has the infrastructure and mentality of a galactic power, by the end of FS1 it's nothing but an isolated system. The whole system is geared for war, it has been since war with the Vasudans started. Now there's all that gear, no enemy to fight and a lot of hurt pride. I don't think the GTA in Sol would go away peacefully or easily, there would be a struggle.

So you've got two pissed off populations, each with their own sub-factions. How well any contact between the two could go all depends on the timescale; if we're talking just 10-20 years after FS2 then we get BP. If we're talking more like 30-50 then well time heals all wounds right? And whose to say the Shivans don't find a backdoor into the place and glass Earth back to the stone age? 

[Megawolf492]

I would think that the GTVA wouldn't open the Sol node (which could take a LONG time anyways) until they were ready. If you got another HoL or NTF, that is priority number one. However, I don't see the military as being shattered after Capella. Maybe demoralized, but more relieved than anything. And I don't think the public lost its confidence in the military. They defeated a big rebellion and halted a species that has destroyed other civilizations (and nearly their's). Sure, if they had failed to collapse the nodes and the shivans pursued them, they would be in big trouble.

The fact that the government is still fully functioning also gives major stability to the situation. They still have the power and authority to protect GTVA space, unlike the psuedo-GTA after FS1. It would be ludicrous for a local government to say "the GTVA didn't completely protect us against the most powerful force in the galaxy, so we think it would be best to face them by ourselves." After FS1, many probably thought the Shivans were defeated entirely. No one thought that after FS2. 

I don't think that after the node collapse, Sol just couldn't stand not having anyone to fight. The Great War was short, but it was tough. Though it wasn't how they wanted to end, it was better than being wiped. They needed some "rest". If Sol is unified (however so) when contact is reestablished, the only reason I could see Sol attacking the GTVA is because they allied themselves with the Vasudans. But that all depends on who is leading Sol at that time.

[Luis Dias]

I also happen to think that within a moment of crisis, it's rather unusual for the populace to rebel against their leaders. The mistake GTVA made was to go wrong on their calculations on the Shivan threat. But they were always well aware of this blindness (listen to Petrarch's command briefings where he warns of the danger of miscalculations here), they designed contigency plans (some more successful than others) and the risk did end paying off (gathering sufficient intel for the duplication of the Knossos portal). FWIW, the GTVA never had a real chance even if they calculated correctly the danger from the very beggining, since they would have tried to shut down the portal and just wouldn't be able to (see Flaming Sword). Further, it could have been even more dangerous, for they would (a) probably not understand they didn't close the portal sufficiently for a Sathanas not to enter it until it was too late, (b) not have any heads up for the Sat Fleet coming down, (c) generally thought they were safe and ok.

As it were, they started evacuating Cappella right from the get go and never ceased to do so until the end. They did alright, given the circumstances, and they did manage to save hundreds of millions of lives, the Knossos intel, etc. AFAICS, they shouldn't have many political problems on their own (here I disagree slightly with BP canon). The worst problem they would have was for mankind to face itself with the knowledge of the kind of cruel, daunting Lovecraftian cosmos they inhabit. I see a sudden brutal surge of suicide rates, for example, desperate depressions, wild panics everywhere, etc.,etc. It could almost shatter a civilization.

[Buckshee Rounds]

I wasn't implying a full blown rebellion, least of all during the second incursion. What I meant was there could be fragmentation after Capella went nova and that fragmentation could lead to something more if contact with Sol was reastablished. You could argue it was the GTVA's own fault for alerting the Shivan's in the first place by failing to prevent the NTF from accessing the portal (as ludicrous as it sounds it would make sense from an external, civilian point of view). The GTVA's authority seems to be founded on being the biggest kid on the block. The NTF challenged that authority, whose to say other systems wouldn't after the Capella nova? You don't lose an entire solar system and expect not to have people doubting you, especially when a fair chunk of those people live in former rebel systems or are refugees from Capella.

There's the material losses to consider as well; the fleet's smashed so policing would become an issue, plenty of civlian vessels were lost and an entire solar system of resources. Economically the GTVA is not going to do well after Capella and that alone would breed unrest.

The GTVA lost plenty of civilians during the evacuation of Capella, there would be questions raised as to their ability to defend against the Shivans. That's a whole issue right there: does anyone living in the GTVA really believe there's a military solution to the Shivans? The GTVA is a military solution to a problem that can't be solved. They can't stop the Shivans showing up and they can't beat them when they do. I'll concede that given the circumstances the GTVA had a pretty solid strategy at the end, but when you add up the losses it really isn't going to make a difference to public opinion.

Another thing to consider - the GTVA lost the second incursion. Nothing about it can be claimed as a victory, except perhaps the Knossos intel. The GTVA is therefore a defeated nation and generally speaking people do not react well to losing wars.

EDIT:

The worst problem they would have was for mankind to face itself with the knowledge of the kind of cruel, daunting Lovecraftian cosmos they inhabit. I see a sudden brutal surge of suicide rates, for example, desperate depressions, wild panics everywhere, etc.,etc. It could almost shatter a civilization.

That's a really interesting point. You'd have to delude yourself into thinking you could be safe from the Shivans. I'd argue that in the present day we seem pretty comfortable with the prosepct of nuclear annihilation at any point, maybe this would become a problem, maybe not.

[MatthTheGeek]

Another thing to consider - the GTVA lost the second incursion. Nothing about it can be claimed as a victory, except perhaps the Knossos intel.

Given the circumstances, survival is a victory in and of itself.

That, and the hundred of thousands of citizens they managed to evacuate.

The GTVA is still in a pretty damn good shape when you take into account they had 80 ****en juggernauts on the other side.

[Luis Dias]

I understand your reasoning Buckshee, but I just can't agree with it. Blaming terrorist organizations for **** ups is amazingly expedient and efficient with any government, especially if it's even true which it is in this particular example (where it's not even a terrorist org, it's a ****ing secession). It even unites the people under the current political banner they are into. They can say silly things like "Bosch was so hitlerite he even brought the devil into our systems!"

Really, the GTVA can only get many positive points out of this war. It's not the humans fault that the shivans are what they are.

[CT27]

  generally speaking people do not react well to losing wars.

Even though there was nothing more that really could have been done against the Shivans?

[Megawolf492]

I wasn't implying a full blown rebellion, least of all during the second incursion. What I meant was there could be fragmentation after Capella went nova...

Fragmentation implies either someone is actively rebelling or the lack of real government forces someone to control a system, like after FS1. After FS1 (and ST), there really was no government and what was left of the military was in chaos. I see neither after FS2. The government - which includes to a large part the Vasudans, lets not forget - is still safely in Beta Aquilae and able to manage the refugees, rebuilding in war torn systems, and their long term goals. The military was decimated by the NTF and the shivans, but is still in better shape than after FS1. So if someone isn't actively rebelling, there is no need to fill a power void that isn't there.

[Luis Dias]

Exactly. Merely the huge coordination that is being done by this government at this time of crisis will only increase and substantiate its power, if anything.