I will consent that university economics and finance instructors are well informed, it's their job after all to be as up to date as possible with information about what they teach, but I will also consent that a great majority of University Profs in general, lean left. To the point that, when challenged/corrected by a student who leans right, some will actively sabotage that student.
How can you not predict based on that system anyway?
US culture is a consumer culture, 350 million consumers, each spending hundreds of dollars a month on everthing from food to electronic gadgets and automobiles.
It's simple math. I'll use myself as an example. Even though I don't have a job right now(and I am looking believe me), my parents being great and helping me out. I don't and haven't purchased anything but neccessities(certain basic foodstuffs and gasoline for my bomber) for almost a year and I spend easily $40 a week.
Now times that by 4 weeks in a month.
4 x 40 is 160.
This doesn't count my rent, which is $100 a month(trailer lot only) or the power bill which averages $35 a month.
Counting all that:
160 + 100 = 260
260 + 35 = 295
Let's round that up to $300 to make the math easier. Now that's a very low monthly expense for most everybody.
Let's say the government gets 5% of that, as it's spent at the register remember. That's $15. Doesn't sound like a lot does it? Now let's times that by 350 million people, cause even if that many aren't spending money it will get made up somewhere else in the system.
15 x 350,000,000 = 5,250,000,000
Understand, that's five billion two-hundred-fifty million dollars per month. Times 12 months per year.
12 x 5,250,000,000 = 63,000,000,000
That's sixty-three billion dollars generated by survival spending only at a rate of 5% at the register. Everybody spends at least that much a month, most quite a lot more. That could be considered the baseline to base economic projections on.
Also, before you go on about how the average person couldn't afford the additional sales tax, remember that they will get their entire paycheck, not half of it. If you earn $200 a week on wages or $2000 a week on salary, your paycheck would be for that amount it would be you're choice how, where and when to spend it.