[blackhole]

A 13-year-old German schoolboy corrected NASA's estimates on the chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth, a German newspaper reported Tuesday, after spotting the boffins had miscalculated.

Nico Marquardt used telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam (AIP) to calculate that there was a 1 in 450 chance that the Apophis asteroid will collide with Earth, the Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten reported.

NASA had previously estimated the chances at only 1 in 45,000 but told its sister organisation, the European Space Agency (ESA), that the young whizzkid had got it right.

The schoolboy took into consideration the risk of Apophis running into one or more of the 40,000 satellites orbiting Earth during its path close to the planet on April 13 2029.

Those satellites travel at 3.07 kilometres a second (1.9 miles), at up to 35,880 kilometres above earth -- and the Apophis asteroid will pass by earth at a distance of 32,500 kilometres.

If the asteroid strikes a satellite in 2029, that will change its trajectory making it hit earth on its next orbit in 2036.

Both NASA and Marquardt agree that if the asteroid does collide with earth, it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes, which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean.

The shockwaves from that would create huge tsunami waves, destroying both coastlines and inland areas, whilst creating a thick cloud of dust that would darken the skies indefinitely.

The 13-year old made his discovery as part of a regional science competition for which he submitted a project entitled: "Apophis -- The Killer Astroid."

[FUBAR-BDHR]

Wonder what the odds are if you add in an estimate of all the additional junk that will be up there by 2029.

[Mars]

There's such a thing as calculating probability to the point that it doesn't mean anything anymore

[Nuclear1]

Thank you Duetsches Wunderkind for making us realize we are now actually 100x more likely to be hit by a killer asteroid.

Not that it's that likely even at 1 in 450, but still...

[Nuke]

i still think we should try to capture it

[Ashrak]

Thank you Duetsches Wunderkind for making us realize we are now actually 100x more likely to be hit by a killer asteroid.

Not that it's that likely even at 1 in 450, but still...

well getting pocket aces in texas holdem is 1 out of 220 and iv gotten em a LOT of times, so were ****ed.

[vyper]

Epic fail sir.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/16/esa_german_schoolboy_apophis_denial/

Widespread media reports claim that a German schoolboy has recalculated the likelihood of a deadly planet-smasher asteroid hitting the Earth, and found the catastrophe is enormously more likely than NASA thought. The boy's sums were said to have been checked by both NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA), and found to be correct.

There's only one problem with the story: the kid's sums are in fact wrong, NASA's are right, and the ESA swear blind they never said any different. An ESA spokesman in Germany told the Reg this morning: "A small boy did do these calculations, but he made a mistake... NASA's figures are correct."

[perihelion]

But!- but!- but!... the Internets said!....    [/jibbering]
 

[Windrunner]

Ah well nothing new, we are doing a fine job destroying this world our selfs, if the astreoid hits the us it will only finish the job that we have started.

[Kosh]

Ok, so now that the chances of Apophis hitting us are suddenly so much greater, why aren't we building some kind of super missile or something to take it out just in case it gets too close?

[Hellstryker]

Don't kid yourself, that ****s already up there 

[Flaser]

Because blowing it to bits this close to the planet may not help...and all those missiles would be very convinient to erase someone's country from the map - or to shoot their their nukes if they complain about it.

....beside sticking a solarsail on a comet and capturing it over a couple of decades would be a lot more economic and would grant us some much needed orbital mass to play around.

[Kosh]

We already have thousands of missiles that can "erase other countries from the map", but we have none IIRC that can intercept an asteroid.

[Colonol Dekker]

....beside sticking a solarsail on a comet and capturing it over a couple of decades would be a lot more economic and would grant us some much needed orbital mass to play around.

I've seen MAximum Overdrive.................
No way i want earth caught in a persistent comet tail.

On the plus side, MT could still be released before it hits,  

[Grizzly]

So does this mean that the Elite 4 release date changes from "Before doomsday" to "Before Apobhis hits"?

[admiral_wolf]

If command gives the go-ahead, I'll move the Galatea into Sol

[Colonol Dekker]

Good luck................

*CD is confused, either
A- he believes it's really out there,
or
B- he wishes it really was.......*


I need to get out more.....

[Goober5000]

Obviously, they're covering up their admission of error.

Time to short iridium futures!

[Turambar]

[BlackDove]

Fatality.

Turambar WINS.