[Bobboau]

So let's look at the state of the world. There are nearly 7 billion people. The world can scarcely handle what we have now. In 50 years it will double. The world will not be able to handle that, it is simply too many people. The growth rate has not diminished much seance the end of the black death, it did peak at about twice it's current level shortly after WW2, but the trend is clear that the population doubles every 50 years. There is only a limited amount of resources and it would take 20 years for any actual change in population growth to have any effect on the related growth of resource consumption. most of these resources are limited in total volume, that is when they run out they will be gone unilaterally reducing your own population growth will only provide those who do not with the resources you didn't consume, so the ones who act most responsibly will be naturally selected against.

What will the world be like in 50 years?

[Kie99]

People 50 years ago probably didn't think the world would be able to sustain 7 Billion people today.

[Grizzly]

People 50 years ago probably didn't think the world would be able to sustain 7 Billion people today.

And they thought there would be a lot more people, but then they suddenly made birth control a lot easier
The black death would have killed us all, but we invented the quarantine.
Hydrocarbon gasse burn a hole in Ozon, but we eliminated the problem and the ozon layer is restoring slowly.
Carbon dioxide was going to warm up the earth, but CO₂ 'sponges' are in development which are able to eliminate that problem too.
Oil is going to run out, but there already cars on hydrogen.




The natural condition of the earth is one of insurmountable obstacles on the road to imminent disaster...

... Strangely enough, it all turns out well.

[Bobboau]

"Hydrocarbon gasse burn a hole in Ozon"
chlorofluorocarbons.

I'm sure life in the auger seems well and good for the bacteria too.

[Nuke]

thats why i live in alaska, cant think of a better place to sit back and watch the world burn from. enjoy your nuclear explosions.

[General Battuta]

Actually I believe that in some models the world population is due to peak in the near future and will then begin to decline.

[Bobboau]

how do those models come to that prediction?

[General Battuta]

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v412/n6846/full/412543a0.html

[Bobboau]

I would rather you summarize than have to pay to read the article.

[General Battuta]

I would rather you summarize than have to pay to read the article.

Weird, I don't have to pay. I guess because I'm on a school connection?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population#Growth

[Sushi]

Not an expert on this, but I'm pretty sure that the western world (which is a minority of the population) is using up a majority of the resources you're talking about, not the booming Chinese/Indian populations... We can probably sustain much higher populations, but I don't think we can have everyone living the hyper-luxurious lifestyle that the western world currently enjoys.

In other words, I'm much more worried about the long-term unsustainability of western lifestyle and culture than I am about explosive population growth.

[Nuke]

its quality or quantity, you cant have both. the earth would explode if it had 7 billion americans on it.

[Kosh]

So let's look at the state of the world. There are nearly 7 billion people. The world can scarcely handle what we have now. In 50 years it will double. The world will not be able to handle that, it is simply too many people. The growth rate has not diminished much seance the end of the black death, it did peak at about twice it's current level shortly after WW2, but the trend is clear that the population doubles every 50 years. There is only a limited amount of resources and it would take 20 years for any actual change in population growth to have any effect on the related growth of resource consumption. most of these resources are limited in total volume, that is when they run out they will be gone unilaterally reducing your own population growth will only provide those who do not with the resources you didn't consume, so the ones who act most responsibly will be naturally selected against.

What will the world be like in 50 years?

It's worth mentioning that the vast majority of that population growth will occur in the poorest regions, so ultimately it wont affect us much unless they choose to industrialize.

I would rather you summarize than have to pay to read the article.

Weird, I don't have to pay. I guess because I'm on a school connection?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population#Growth

Schools usually pay top dollar so all their students/employees have full access to it.

Not an expert on this, but I'm pretty sure that the western world (which is a minority of the population) is using up a majority of the resources you're talking about, not the booming Chinese/Indian populations... We can probably sustain much higher populations, but I don't think we can have everyone living the hyper-luxurious lifestyle that the western world currently enjoys.

In other words, I'm much more worried about the long-term unsustainability of western lifestyle and culture than I am about explosive population growth.

It really depends on technology. Using current technology, no. But it is advancing, battery tech is getting better, nanotech is right around the corner, GMO is here to feed the world, etc. We will still enjoy our hyper luxerious lifestyle, although China and eventually India will join us as well.

[Scotty]

Almost every western and/or 1st world country in the world actually has a fairly rapidly declining population (relatively).  TFRs (Total Fertility Rates.  Basically the number of children borne per woman.) in most of Europe are below two (two is the smallest number that would result in population growth - discounting immigration), and some are low enough to be almost below 1.5.  I think one of the only two or three 1st world/western countries in the world actually experiencing population growth is the U.S., and then only because we allow nearly a million legal immigrants a year.

Places in Africa, India, and some Middle Eastern countries are experiencing growth, true, but they also don't use anywhere near the resources western/1st world nations do.

[castor]

Places in Africa, India, and some Middle Eastern countries are experiencing growth, true, but they also don't use anywhere near the resources western/1st world nations do.

But they will, ASAP.

[Bobboau]

We can probably sustain much higher populations, but I don't think we can have everyone living the hyper-luxurious lifestyle that the western world currently enjoys.

In other words, I'm much more worried about the long-term unsustainability of western lifestyle and culture than I am about explosive population growth.

the western lifestyle is completely sustainable... for a smaller population, if we as a species insist on having a global population of 14 billion then no you are right we cannot, but, if there were fewer people then it's totally doable. I think the fair way of handling this is to partition the world and basically have each partition decide how they want to procede, some places might value large families over higher standard of living, and they should be allowed to make that choice if they want to, but it seems unfair that parts of the world that have decided that a higher standard of living per person should have that taken away when these parts of the world later change their minds.

note: I don't think this will ever happen, seems too logical, the parts of the world with huge unsustainable populations will be like "we want it too" and they won't care that the reason they don't have it already is because of their own choices, further they won't learn to control their population because they will not suffer the consequences of overpopulation, they will view the situation as parts of the world feeling that they are better than them and indignant they will likely start a resource war.

[SpardaSon21]

Can't we just strip-mine the asteroid belt and solve the resource crisis that way?

[Sushi]

It really depends on technology. Using current technology, no. But it is advancing, battery tech is getting better, nanotech is right around the corner, GMO is here to feed the world, etc. We will still enjoy our hyper luxerious lifestyle, although China and eventually India will join us as well.

Glad someone is more optimistic about this than I am. I don't have that much faith in technology.

the western lifestyle is completely sustainable... for a smaller population, if we as a species insist on having a global population of 14 billion then no you are right we cannot, but, if there were fewer people then it's totally doable.

Is it sustainable without a billion people working for dirt-cheap in China to prop it up? Is it really possible to have a high-tech consumer society of all nobles and no peasants? I have grave doubts.

I think the fair way of handling this is to partition the world and basically have each partition decide how they want to procede, some places might value large families over higher standard of living, and they should be allowed to make that choice if they want to, but it seems unfair that parts of the world that have decided that a higher standard of living per person should have that taken away when these parts of the world later change their minds.

Great idea! We should call them "countries."

What do you do if none of them allow you to live how you want?

[Locutus of Borg]

When all the world is overcharged with inhabitants, then the last remedy of all is war, which provideth for every man, by victory or death.

- Thomas Hobbes

[Liberator]

...hyper-luxurious lifestyle that the western world currently enjoys.

In other words, I'm much more worried about the long-term unsustainability of western lifestyle and culture than I am about explosive population growth.

I was unaware that I lived a "Hyper Luxurious" life style.  The non-sustainable part only comes in because we're brainwashed to replace EVERYTHING once a decade or so.  We're fixing to bring in this years harvest using a combine that is almost as old as I am.