[General Battuta]

Huh, I kinda want to help out now.

[Flipside]

Unfortunately, that was a pretty foregone conclusion in the longer term, unlike Egypt etc, there seems a more even division between pro- and anti-establishment forces, and the fact is the Pros have the cash and the connections.

I don't think we are anywhere near the end of the troubles though, even if the more obvious signs of rebellion are squashed, Libya will be in for years of internal strife and conflict.

[achtung]

We went out of our way to topple a regime that the people seemed satisfied not to challenge, and they hated us for it. Now, we sit on our hands as we're begged for help.

I know it's far from being that simple, but it still feels wrong.

[Mustang19]

Just because the West said it wanted to help the rebels, doesn't mean it does.

Publicly, Obama called for Mubarak to step down, but considering the billions in military aid sent to Egypt he probably wasn't enthusiastic about the whole thing in reality.

The same goes for Gadaffi. The West was becoming to be on increasingly good terms with Libya before this whole thing happened. Perhaps NATO wants someone predictable, and pliable, in charge.



edit: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110311/ap_on_re_us/us_libya_intelligence_director

US intelligence director gets in trouble for admitting that the regime is winning.

[NGTM-1R]

The same goes for Gadaffi. The West was becoming to be on increasingly good terms with Libya before this whole thing happened. Perhaps NATO wants someone predictable, and pliable, in charge.

If you honestly believe that he's predictable and pliable, you have not been paying attention.

[Mustang19]

He is, relatively so. Just as the US tried to stay on good terms with the Shah of Iran and the Saud family to keep the oil flowing, in recent years the west has been pushing Gadaffi to increase oil production and liberalize the economy with some success. Dictators can do this because they don't have to worry about getting elected next term.

[Dilmah G]

Huh, I kinda want to help out now.

Me too.

Did any of you guys see this?

[Mustang19]

General Chuck Horner stated that no major offensive has ever succeeded without air superiority. Give the rebels some mortars, M60s and TOWs and they'll prove him wrong.

I'm not sure Dilmah's source is legitimate but it is an interesting possibility. Also, ALLAHU AKHBAR!!!111 X1000

[Dilmah G]

Actually, the man has a point here, as long as Gaddafi has competent pilots (I don't throw those words around, but I believe there are some left after most of the ones worthy of that title defected or ejected), ammunition and fuel, he can thwart any/all ground offensives. Best bet for the rebels is to take the airbases or at least deny them the fuel supplies of those airbases.

I'm not sure if the source is legit either, but I believe there are a number of other sources reporting that information.

[Mustang19]

It will have to be enough since it takes a great deal of time to train soldiers to use modern air defenses. Even then having air defenses isn't as good as having interceptors. The best that can be done for the rebels now would be to give them some Stingers or ZSUs to keep away helicopters.

Hopefully Libya's Tu-22 carpet bombers stay grounded. It would be nasty if they were used against cities.

[headdie]

It will have to be enough since it takes a great deal of time to train soldiers to use modern air defenses. Even then having air defenses isn't as good as having interceptors. The best that can be done for the rebels now would be to give them some Stingers or ZSUs to keep away helicopters.

Hopefully Libya's Tu-22 carpet bombers stay grounded. It would be nasty if they were used against cities.

Just been reading up on the Lybian airforce and to be honest dropping a few crates of stingers and an instruction manual would do a similar job to a NFZ, most of the confirmed equipment is mid cold war, era a few examples of later stuff but not much, and from what i can tell many of their plains are unserviceable anyway due to parts

[Mustang19]

It makes little difference whether the equipment is cold war or not when you're fighting poorly equipped rebels. And Libya probably still has at least 100 operational strike aircraft out of the 400 or so in the air force. The mujaheddin were in a similar situation as what we're talking about, having light air defenses to shoot helicopters and perhaps distract jets but nothing to deny the use of the air to the Soviets. As a result they held the countryside but were never able to launch an organized offensive to hit Soviet bases or take back what urban areas Afghanistan had. A conventional army would have a very hard time with just shoulder launched SAMs against even a cold war era air force. Plus, we're talking about advancing over an open desert against air attack.

[karajorma]

And that's before we get to the basic stupidity of giving out an air strike capability willy-nilly with no idea how to get those weapons back after the end of this war.

[Flipside]

There are going to be complications caused by the fact that the UN is working behind the curve. France has recognised the rebels as Libyas' ruling party, and the UK has pretty much commited itself to the same declaration. If Gadaffi comes out on top, which is slowly looking more likely in this attrition, things are going to get very awkward.

[Black Wolf]

That was a ballsy move by the French, more power to 'em.

Interesting point - if the legitimate governent of Libya asked for help, might the Charles de Gaulle be making a quick trip into the med? Unlikely, I know (hell, I'm not even sure if it'd be permitted by the rest of the EU) but interesting to consider...

[Flipside]

Well, there's a UN summit today on the matter, both the UK and France are united in pushing for a no-fly zone, which means it's already entered territory entirely outside the Iraqi situation.

Thing is, if the UN agree to put their toe in the pool, they'd better be prepared to jump all the way, because push most certainly will come to shove.

[StarSlayer]

That was a ballsy move by the French, more power to 'em.

Interesting point - if the legitimate governent of Libya asked for help, might the Charles de Gaulle be making a quick trip into the med? Unlikely, I know (hell, I'm not even sure if it'd be permitted by the rest of the EU) but interesting to consider...

I'd be worth it just to see those Rafale Ms in action.

[Dilmah G]

Are those the only two countries pushing for an NFZ? And I agree with the push to shove comment, but if it's enacted, the RoE should be fit to engage Libyan aircraft in BVR range if they don't respond to hails, so I'd estimate the Libyan fighter force to buckle in under two weeks and even that's being fairly liberal.

[Bobboau]

Ok, so, a few countries are recognizing the rebel counsel  as the legitimate government of Libya, and right now there are a bunch of mercenaries and a few loyalists attacking what is slowly being recognized as the legitimate government of Libya. So to that effect, if in another country the internationally recognized government of a country was being attacked by a mercenary group and said government requested military aid from the international community wouldn't it be reasonable that the international community would be willing to provide that aid? maybe this is the way to get around China and Russia's opposition?

[Mustang19]

China and Russia hold veto power on the security council so technically they can block any UN action. It's clear now though that the UN isn't handling this situation decisively (nor is anyone really) and the international community should not wait for their approval.