Author Topic: The Socio-Economic Rise of China  (Read 6151 times)

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Offline Kosh

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Re: The Socio-Economic Rise of China
:bump:


One question I have about that link, does it take into account all of the bridges to nowhere and white elephants that have been built at taxpayer expense to prop up the system?

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And about the weak dollar; that's been boosting US manufacturing, doing a bit to close the gaping current account deficit, and working to correct some of the huge global capital flow imbalances that contributed to the current mess.


Things like manufacturing basic consumer goods are never going to come back, once China gets too expensive then there's plenty of other poor countries to make that stuff. So ultimately it is the middle class that gets hurt by this, not helped.
"The reason for this is that the original Fortran got so convoluted and extensive (10's of millions of lines of code) that no-one can actually figure out how it works, there's a massive project going on to decode the original Fortran and write a more modern system, but until then, the UK communication network is actually relying heavily on 35 year old Fortran that nobody understands." - Flipside

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Offline Luis Dias

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Re: The Socio-Economic Rise of China
That's just bull****. I'm no right winger, but even myself can see that free trade is not hurting the middle class when you get to have basic consumer goods a lot cheaper. You are focusing on the visible lost jobs and forgetting all the rest of stuff, not only like the jobs that poor people get in other countries, but more to the point, the cheap goods that come to your country as a result, and the fact that when you pay the chinese with dollars, you'll eventually get that money back by investment. So you got not only good saves throughout the country due to cheaper goods (and thus people can spend in other things and create new markets, therefore new jobs), but now you also have new investers.

And this is no small feat. One could say that the chinese investment did a good job in protecting the USA from an economic meltdown.

 

Offline Unknown Target

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Re: The Socio-Economic Rise of China
One of the biggest problems in the US is that when it comes to things like manufacturing, the vast majority have no idea how; we can't ever employ welders, carpenters, etc, on a mass scale like China; most of our populace have little to no practical working skills; blame the mad rush for everyone to go to college instead of get "dirty" jobs like mechanics or electricians. This isn't news, but it's a cornerstone of our unemployment problems; we just don't have a labor pool that has large amounts of practical, useful skills anymore.

 

Offline General Battuta

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Re: The Socio-Economic Rise of China
One of the biggest problems in the US is that when it comes to things like manufacturing, the vast majority have no idea how; we can't ever employ welders, carpenters, etc, on a mass scale like China; most of our populace have little to no practical working skills; blame the mad rush for everyone to go to college instead of get "dirty" jobs like mechanics or electricians. This isn't news, but it's a cornerstone of our unemployment problems; we just don't have a labor pool that has large amounts of practical, useful skills anymore.

The problem isn't that there's no supply of manufacturing talent, it's that there's no demand. Putting more people into the manufacturing sector would increase unemployment and create more Detroit.

Nobody wants more Detroit.

 
Re: The Socio-Economic Rise of China
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You are focusing on the visible lost jobs and forgetting all the rest of stuff, not only like the jobs that poor people get in other countries, but more to the point, the cheap goods that come to your country as a result, and the fact that when you pay the chinese with dollars, you'll eventually get that money back by investment.

The opposite is happening overall. In a nutshell, the US is running a current account deficit which means net investment is flowing into the country.

I don't assume you've heard of the balance of payments identity. The balance of payments is composed of the national current account and capital account. A nation's balance of payments must sum to zero when all components are included. The current account has several components; the largest of these is usually the trade balance. A country which imports more than it exports must finance its trade deficit somehow. This is done by selling assets (stocks, bonds, factories, mines, etc) to bring capital into the country. Therefore a country's capital account must move opposite to it's current account.

All this means is that the US economy is financing short-term consumption by sacrificing future profits from asset ownership. This is what is usually meant when the US is referred to as a "debtor nation": the private as well as public sector both depend on foreign asset purchases (Treasuries are an asset). Conversely a country which exports more than it imports and runs a current account surplus will run a capital account deficit and will invest in other countries faster than it sells assets to them.

This is all besides the point though. By outsourcing manufacturing, especially over the past decade, the US has traded its ability to produce goods for what turned out to be a brief period of service (mainly retail) sector and housing price fueled growth supported by an unsustainable coincidence of low but rising foreign wages and a pileup of liabilities. Now that seems to be ending, and the US will eventually have to make up for lost time and build an economy on production rather than salary inflation and debt.

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The problem isn't that there's no supply of manufacturing talent, it's that there's no demand. Putting more people into the manufacturing sector would increase unemployment and create more Detroit.

Nobody wants more Detroit.

What exactly do you mean by "putting more people into the manufacturing sector"? People are obviously going to go wherever the jobs are. Right now one of those places is manufacturing.

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ISM's Employment Index registered 58.2 percent in May, which is 4.5 percentage points lower than the 62.7 percent reported in April. This is the 20th consecutive month of growth in manufacturing employment. An Employment Index above 50.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

http://www.ism.ws/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm

Manufacturing remains well below capacity and there's no shortage of labor yet, but it is coming back and a weaker dollar will increase demand for US produced goods.

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That's just bull****. I'm no right winger, but even myself can see that free trade is not hurting the middle class when you get to have basic consumer goods a lot cheaper.

Its a lot more complicated than that; most professional economists will say what you said in more theoretical terms but this is a narrow view. As a nation you get cheap plastic crap for a time but only by bleeding assets and accumulating liabilities. Large foreign capital inflows feed speculation. International wage competition slows wage growth. And you lose a lot of secure unionized manufacturing jobs for relatively tenuous service sector ones. Not a good deal for the average American in the long run. It is a good deal for exporting countries however.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2011, 01:08:30 pm by Mustang19 »

 
Re: The Socio-Economic Rise of China
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From that list China and southeast asia are the only ones that have low labor costs. The rest are just as expensive as america, and they are supposed to be our allies. There are other reasons to source production elsewhere.

If you insist on sauce...

http://www.plantengineering.com/search/search-single-display/rising-labor-costs-in-china-may-cause-manufacturers-to-return-to-us/648179741a.html

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Manufacturing is expected to return to America as China’s rising labor costs erase most savings from offshoring. Reinvestment during the next five years could usher in a ‘manufacturing renaissance’ as the U.S. becomes a low-cost country among developed nations, according to analysis by The Boston Consulting Group (BCG).

Within the next five years, the United States is expected to experience a manufacturing renaissance as the wage gap with China shrinks and certain U.S. states become some of the cheapest locations for manufacturing in the developed world, according to a new analysis by BCG.

 

Offline Luis Dias

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Re: The Socio-Economic Rise of China
Yeah, its a good deal for the exporting countries' people. And if you make a pause and temporarily forget that you are an american but not that you are an earth citizen, then you actually see that this is taking millions of people out of misery... and that this is good stuff, not bad.

So sure, the pressure is on the middle class, as if I am not aware of this myself!, but at the same time I can afford stuff that my parents couldn't, even despite the fact that their wages weren't so pressed as mine is.

 

Offline Unknown Target

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Re: The Socio-Economic Rise of China
One of the biggest problems in the US is that when it comes to things like manufacturing, the vast majority have no idea how; we can't ever employ welders, carpenters, etc, on a mass scale like China; most of our populace have little to no practical working skills; blame the mad rush for everyone to go to college instead of get "dirty" jobs like mechanics or electricians. This isn't news, but it's a cornerstone of our unemployment problems; we just don't have a labor pool that has large amounts of practical, useful skills anymore.

The problem isn't that there's no supply of manufacturing talent, it's that there's no demand. Putting more people into the manufacturing sector would increase unemployment and create more Detroit.

Nobody wants more Detroit.

No, that's car manufacturing, and that's not even manufacturing; I'm talking about people who know how to machine, weld, etc. Most of Detroit was unskilled people screwing in bolts or drilling holes; there was welding and whatnot, yea, but a lot of that has been mostly automated.

There is currently not a lot of demand for American manufacturing compared to China, but that's because American stuff isn't that great and Chinese stuff isn't that bad. There is a lot of demand for plumbers, electricians, etc, and all of those talents relate; if you can weld you can weld pipes in a house or a car or in an airplane.

The point is that there aren't a lot of people in America with real skills anymore. Most people don't know how to build anything - the vast majority of the American work force these days, especially those coming out of college, have no practical experience in many of the things they do. As Mike Rowe said, we've become a nation of people who put money on the table and expect things to be fixed.

 

Offline General Battuta

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Re: The Socio-Economic Rise of China
I definitely agree that if you're a plumber or electrician you can actually do pretty well for yourself. Having worked construction, though, I can see why we as a nation prefer to hire Mexicans to do it.

 
Re: The Socio-Economic Rise of China
Yeah, its a good deal for the exporting countries' people. And if you make a pause and temporarily forget that you are an american but not that you are an earth citizen, then you actually see that this is taking millions of people out of misery... and that this is good stuff, not bad.

So sure, the pressure is on the middle class, as if I am not aware of this myself!, but at the same time I can afford stuff that my parents couldn't, even despite the fact that their wages weren't so pressed as mine is.

Doesn't really matter if it helps people, free trade (or what's usually referred to by that term) has done a lot to increase global competition and efficiency. The problem is when trade results in unsustainable changes to the world economy or a few countries practice currency manipulation. In those cases it slows world growth.

Would be nice if the US didn't just stand around while the Chinese government (among others) devalues its currency by 30-40%. It's unliateral disarmament: we say "free trade" and China stays mercantilist. A 20% tariff on all Chinese goods would be a start. The US is in a position of strength here; exporters depend on us for growth and employment more than we do on them. It just insists on staying the course of neoliberal dickery.

 

Offline Luis Dias

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Re: The Socio-Economic Rise of China
Doesn't really matter if it helps people, free trade (or what's usually referred to by that term) has done a lot to increase global competition and efficiency. The problem is when trade results in unsustainable changes to the world economy or a few countries practice currency manipulation. In those cases it slows world growth.

I'd like to know more about this. Why does currency manipulation slows down growth? It's a very useful tool to keep the balance sheets sane enough. I wished that Portugal could still "manipulate" their own currency, we wouldn't be in the mess we are in.

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Would be nice if the US didn't just stand around while the Chinese government (among others) devalues its currency by 30-40%. It's unliateral disarmament: we say "free trade" and China stays mercantilist. A 20% tariff on all Chinese goods would be a start. The US is in a position of strength here; exporters depend on us for growth and employment more than we do on them. It just insists on staying the course of neoliberal dickery.

I happen to think like Milton in this respect (and no, again I'm not a neoliberal... I'm all for NHS and free education, etc.):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0pl_FXt0eM&feature=player_embedded

 
Re: The Socio-Economic Rise of China
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I'd like to know more about this. Why does currency manipulation slows down growth? It's a very useful tool to keep the balance sheets sane enough. I wished that Portugal could still "manipulate" their own currency, we wouldn't be in the mess we are in.

Currency manipulation artificially lowers costs and creates incentives to relocate production to more expensive, less productive countries that practice it. You make your exports more competitive not by actually improving their quality or developing more efficient productive processes but just by tweaking their price. Foreign countries give you their capital and assets so you can export more stuff to them; the manipulators sacrifice current consumption by shipping consumer goods off elsewhere in exchange for assets and fixed capital to increase future growth.

edit: You can see how this can affect growth imagining what would happen if the US manipulated production costs to attain the same result. What if instead of China subsidizing goods produced within its borders 40%, the United States placed a 40% tax on domestic production? If you think China having an undervalued currency helps us, then shouldn't we overvalue our currency even more?

Sure, currency manipulation would be good for Portugal (or whatever other nation that practices it). But it imposes greater costs on production in other countries because the market price of producing on Portugal is made inaccurately low.

Friedman claims manipulation hurts the country that performs it, as a form of "foreign aid". In practice, like with the example of Portugal you gave, it boosts employment and industrial capacity in these countries at the expense of others.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2011, 02:47:07 pm by Mustang19 »

 

Offline Luis Dias

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Re: The Socio-Economic Rise of China
Currency manipulation is good if you have a pressing problem to solve, but if you devalue your currency, you are effectively empoverishing the population. You don't want to do that without a good reason, and the best solution for any country is to have its currency as high as possible.

So sure, it boosts production in the near term, but it is very bad in long term, since many technologies one country has to invest in to develop its own economy are built outside of that country. If you devalue your currency, you are making these technologies more expensive, and you'll be out-competed by richer economies which can afford these technologies.

So it all balances out, I think. There is no need for protectionist measures. But there's another question lurking here. I've heard many times that china's currency is "undervalued". And I ask, how the hell anyone knows? How does one get to know the "True" value of a currency? If China's currency has its value, then, for me, that is its "True" value. And I see benefits and losses to that state of affairs.

As benefits, China is the biggest pressure against inflation in the world right now. This is very good stuff. OTOH, you are in trouble if you want to sell goods to china. However, china does not need "outside goods" more than it needs to industrialize and develop itself, given the hundreds of millions still in poverty. So they will sacrifice their purchase power for the chance of having more jobs and more work to do.

You are still thinking in zero-sum games, I think. I don't agree with that vision at all.

 
Re: The Socio-Economic Rise of China
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So sure, it boosts production in the near term, but it is very bad in long term, since many technologies one country has to invest in to develop its own economy are built outside of that country. If you devalue your currency, you are making these technologies more expensive, and you'll be out-competed by richer economies which can afford these technologies.

So it all balances out, I think. There is no need for protectionist measures. But there's another question lurking here. I've heard many times that china's currency is "undervalued". And I ask, how the hell anyone knows? How does one get to know the "True" value of a currency? If China's currency has its value, then, for me, that is its "True" value. And I see benefits and losses to that state of affairs.

It doesn't "all balance out". Having to pay a bit more for patent rights or whatever you are referring to is worth improving your access to foreign assets and capital. Currency manipulation has a long history and empirically it's clear that the strategy does work. It's helped the big Asian economies develop very rapidly, even if they would have done almost as well, and at less cost to production elsewhere, without it. Japan stumbled when (among other things) the government did not react to external events that strengthened the yen, but it would not have as strong an economy without manipulation.

The "true" value of a currency as far as this discussion is concerned is the value the market arrives at in the absence of government intervention. Failing that, when one country manipulates the exchange rate of its currency everyone else will have to impose controls as well to return world trade to a state where capital flows more efficiently allocate resources toward expanding production with prices that accurately and consistently reflect the cost of production.

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You are still thinking in zero-sum games, I think. I don't agree with that vision at all.

I mention zero-sum games here but I don't advocate them. Rather it's best for production everywhere else if other countries take China to task about its exchange rate policy, and tariffs can bring costs more into line with economic realities in this case.

A currency exchange rate generally approaches accurate market value when the government doesn't do anything to affect it. A forklift produced in China ought to cost close to the same as one made in America (before shipping and handling). The fact that it doesn't is a sign of market inefficiency; some company will buy a forklift in China instead of America even if it can be made in the latter more quickly and with fewer production inputs. Thus a purchasing power parity calculation is often used to calculate renminbi undervaluation. Alternatively an analysis of the cost to China's currency reserves for holding down it's currency could be used.

The measures of renminbi undervaluation vary, but they run from 15 to 60%.

http://ideas.repec.org/p/cpb/memodm/166.html
« Last Edit: June 08, 2011, 03:52:05 pm by Mustang19 »

 

Offline Luis Dias

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Re: The Socio-Economic Rise of China
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So sure, it boosts production in the near term, but it is very bad in long term, since many technologies one country has to invest in to develop its own economy are built outside of that country. If you devalue your currency, you are making these technologies more expensive, and you'll be out-competed by richer economies which can afford these technologies.

So it all balances out, I think. There is no need for protectionist measures. But there's another question lurking here. I've heard many times that china's currency is "undervalued". And I ask, how the hell anyone knows? How does one get to know the "True" value of a currency? If China's currency has its value, then, for me, that is its "True" value. And I see benefits and losses to that state of affairs.

It doesn't "all balance out". Having to pay a bit more for patent rights or whatever you are referring to is worth improving your access to foreign assets and capital. Currency manipulation has a long history and empirically it's clear that the strategy does work. It's helped the big Asian economies develop very rapidly, even if they would have done almost as well, and at less cost to production elsewhere, without it. Japan stumbled when (among other things) the government did not react to external events that strengthened the yen, but it would not have as strong an economy without manipulation.

The "true" value of a currency as far as this discussion is concerned is the value the market arrives at in the absence of government intervention. Failing that, when one country manipulates the exchange rate of its currency everyone else will have to impose controls as well to return world trade to a state where capital flows more efficiently allocate resources toward expanding production with prices that accurately and consistently reflect the cost of production.

But prices aren't meant to reflect "the cost of production". We are living under a free market, not marxism.

I agree that gov intervention is usually not "efficient". But it is useful, and mostly to poor countries to get the benefits of a devalued currency. However, when such countries develop themselves to reach a wealthy state of affairs, they can't maintain this devaluation. I really don't see this as a problem. If you are saying that this is bad because poor nations get more competitive with it, I can't see it as a "problem", but rather as a good "solution".

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You are still thinking in zero-sum games, I think. I don't agree with that vision at all.

I mention zero-sum games here but I don't advocate them. Rather it's best for production everywhere else if other countries take China to task about its exchange rate policy, and tariffs can bring costs more into line with economic realities in this case.

A currency exchange rate generally approaches accurate market value when the government doesn't do anything to affect it. A forklift produced in China ought to cost close to the same as one made in America (before shipping and handling). The fact that it doesn't is a sign of market inefficiency; some company will buy a forklift in China instead of America even if it can be made in the latter more quickly and with fewer production inputs. Thus a purchasing power parity calculation is often used to calculate renminbi undervaluation. Alternatively an analysis of the cost to China's currency reserves for holding down it's currency could be used.

I really don't understand how you can say that production in China ought to cost the same as in the states, as if there was some physical law that forced this statement to be true. Labor costs in China are reaaaaaally cheap compared to the states. Shipping costs are nil. I can't see how your solution to tariff them is beneficial to anyone but to the governmental budget. So they devalue their own economy, rendering chinese as "slaves" to the rest of the world. How do you see this as an unfair advantage is beyond me. This is akin to a group of professionals undercutting everyone else's prices by living far worse than them.

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The measures of renminbi undervaluation vary, but they run from 15 to 60%.

http://ideas.repec.org/p/cpb/memodm/166.html

Thanks a lot for the source, I'll learn a few things with it!

 
Re: The Socio-Economic Rise of China

But prices aren't meant to reflect "the cost of production". We are living under a free market, not marxism.

I agree that gov intervention is usually not "efficient". But it is useful, and mostly to poor countries to get the benefits of a devalued currency. However, when such countries develop themselves to reach a wealthy state of affairs, they can't maintain this devaluation. I really don't see this as a problem. If you are saying that this is bad because poor nations get more competitive with it, I can't see it as a "problem", but rather as a good "solution".


Whoah whoah whoah, who mentioned Marxism? That pseudoscience has nothing to do with this.

Firms will produce additional units of product until marginal cost equals marginal revenue. Firms that insist on producing at a point where their marginal cost exceeds marginal revenue will go out of business; firms that produce at a point where marginal revenue exceeds marginal cost will (if they're not a monopoly and are in a competitive market) fail as well because competition ensures total revenue at this point will not cover total cost (average plus fixed costs; think of these as cost per unit plus the overhead cost of running the firm). The contrasting forces of economies of scale and diminishing returns will tend to equalize prices everywhere in the absence of barriers to trade. If your industry is inefficient and has strongly diminishing returns to scale it's most economically efficient for you to produce less. If your industry is highly efficient and has less sharply decreasing returns to scale then you should produce more. This ensures the highest level of output. Any sort of state distortion such as currency manipulation "deceives" the invisible hand into allocating too many factors of production toward countries that distort.

Here's a pic. D=MR means demand = marginal revenue, ensuring that the economy as well as the firm produces as much of a product as buyers are willing and able to pay for.



As for the other points: being wealthy doesn't make it any harder to maintain currency manipulation; the developed Asian countries that practiced manipulation in the past still do so. Currency manipulation slows world growth, and in the long, long run that makes everyone poorer.

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I really don't understand how you can say that production in China ought to cost the same as in the states, as if there was some physical law that forced this statement to be true. Labor costs in China are reaaaaaally cheap compared to the states. Shipping costs are nil. I can't see how your solution to tariff them is beneficial to anyone but to the governmental budget. So they devalue their own economy, rendering chinese as "slaves" to the rest of the world. How do you see this as an unfair advantage is beyond me. This is akin to a group of professionals undercutting everyone else's prices by living far worse than them.

Firstly, currency manipulation only lowers your wages in relative terms by increasing costs everywhere else. Sure, there is some wage competition that lowers wages in the US, but currency manipulation drives it back up. A cheaper renminbi means a relatively more expensive dollar and Euro.

To address what you said about costs- that is true, but things are more complicated. There's a difference between marginal and average costs. Marginal cost is the cost to produce one additional unit of output. Marginal costs ought to balance out; more resources should be allocated to more efficient economies with higher output per cost until they produce at the same marginal cost as everywhere else due to diminishing returns on investment. Again, this is why prices will equilibriate globally in the absence of trade barriers. Average costs however are not going to be the same everywhere because they are simply the total cost of production divided by the number of units produced. Efficient economies will have lower average cost in a reasonably undistorted market.

Let me give you a concrete example. Let's say you make money picking cherries. There's a tree with $5 worth of cherries on each branch. You go for the low-hanging fruit first, of course, since that's the easiest to get at. Your marginal revenue for  picking all the cherries on the lowest branch is $5 and your marginal cost is zero since you can easily reach them with your hand. Eventually you pick all the cherries in easy reach and need to spend $4 per cherry on electricity for your cherry-picker to reach up to the next branch. Your marginal revenue is still $5 but marginal cost has gone up to $4. It's still profitable for you to pick cherries so you keep doing it. You soon pick all the ones on this branch and now need even more power to reach the next branch. You still get $5 in marginal revenue but have to pay $5 in marginal cost for the extra electricity. MC=MR and you are now indifferent to producing one additional unit of production; you will keep picking cherries and running your cherrypicker up to this point but no further because the fourth branch would require $6 of electricity to reach and you would cost the economy more than you were producing to reach it.

Now what if someone over the border (lets call him Bob) can pay half as much as you to pick cherries from an indentical tree with the same equipment just because their government prints money to keep their currency 50% undervalued? The power company will relocate because investors would rather give Bob $3 to pick cherries from the fourth branch than give you $4 to consume less power to reach the same number of cherries. Bob will keep producing past the fourth branch and hog all the electricity you could have used more efficiently.

That's uneconomic, and not how things are supposed to work.

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Thanks a lot for the source, I'll learn a few things with it!

No problem. Google "effect of currency manipulation" or something and you'll get plenty more information. Here's a congressional report on Japan's practices, with options to get them to cut it out.

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33178.pdf

Currency manipulation is really a small part of the problem though, since prices adjust most of the way regardless. Retaliating against manipulators is better than letting the problem fester for decades. But global trade imbalances have more to do with extremely low savings rates in the United States than anything else.

 

Offline Luis Dias

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Re: The Socio-Economic Rise of China
Firms will produce additional units of product until marginal cost equals marginal revenue.

Yeah, I get this too, except that it isn't absolutely true. Economies are dynamic and new technologies, new markets, new demands and etc. are always changing the graphic. The price of stuff is always dependent between the pressures between demand and offer, and if the market stays stable for a long time, then yeah you are right. But for many things, this is simply not true.

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As for the other points: being wealthy doesn't make it any harder to maintain currency manipulation; the developed Asian countries that practiced manipulation in the past still do so. Currency manipulation slows world growth, and in the long, long run that makes everyone poorer.

I don't quite get this point, it's a little above my head...

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Now what if someone over the border (lets call him Bob) can pay half as much as you to pick cherries from an indentical tree with the same equipment just because their government prints money to keep their currency 50% undervalued? The power company will relocate because investors would rather give Bob $3 to pick cherries from the fourth branch than give you $4 to consume less power to reach the same number of cherries. Bob will keep producing past the fourth branch and hog all the electricity you could have used more efficiently.

Yeah, I get it. If Bob can produce more cherries while still profiting, is because he and everyone else living on that side of the border is poorer.

A very poor nation will find, for instance, "personal" agriculture profitable. In a rich one, you'd be out of job with it. I guess the example is exactly the same as yours.

But people don't take that kind of poverty with a smile. If people are poorer than in other nations, they will ask why to their politicians. The reason why this is not happening in China is because they are growing up like mad. When they stop growing like that, they will have to stop the devaluation of their currency, to appease the population.

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That's uneconomic, and not how things are supposed to work.

Perhaps, but here are two thoughts. First, the "suppositions" on how things should work are not an absolute, they are merely personal preferences. Second, perhaps while being less efficient from an economical point of view overall, it helps people get out of poverty faster than they otherwise would be. And if you take that into account, if you understand that, for instance, population education is very important for the future economy, and that if people are trapped into poverty they won't be able to educate their sons, then it follows that lowering poverty as fast as possible should be a priority over the overall "efficiency" of the market, with better results long term.

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Currency manipulation is really a small part of the problem though, since prices adjust most of the way regardless. Retaliating against manipulators is better than letting the problem fester for decades. But global trade imbalances have more to do with extremely low savings rates in the United States than anything else.

Ok

 
Re: The Socio-Economic Rise of China
Firms will produce additional units of product until marginal cost equals marginal revenue.

Yeah, I get this too, except that it isn't absolutely true. Economies are dynamic and new technologies, new markets, new demands and etc. are always changing the graphic. The price of stuff is always dependent between the pressures between demand and offer, and if the market stays stable for a long time, then yeah you are right. But for many things, this is simply not true.

Sure. But innacurate pricing due to exchange rate controls don't help.

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As for the other points: being wealthy doesn't make it any harder to maintain currency manipulation; the developed Asian countries that practiced manipulation in the past still do so. Currency manipulation slows world growth, and in the long, long run that makes everyone poorer.

I don't quite get this point, it's a little above my head...

Simple. Faster growth in the overall economy will speed growth everywhere eventually. Its not going to happen in an individual lifespan or even in the lifespan of a country, but small differences in growth add up. Slowing world growth now for your benefit costs you expotentially more as time goes on.

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But people don't take that kind of poverty with a smile. If people are poorer than in other nations, they will ask why to their politicians. The reason why this is not happening in China is because they are growing up like mad. When they stop growing like that, they will have to stop the devaluation of their currency, to appease the population.

Perhaps, but here are two thoughts. First, the "suppositions" on how things should work are not an absolute, they are merely personal preferences. Second, perhaps while being less efficient from an economical point of view overall, it helps people get out of poverty faster than they otherwise would be. And if you take that into account, if you understand that, for instance, population education is very important for the future economy, and that if people are trapped into poverty they won't be able to educate their sons, then it follows that lowering poverty as fast as possible should be a priority over the overall "efficiency" of the market, with better results long term.


There's a good argument there for foreign aid to developing countries there. China could use more infrastructure and education spending. Overall, though, the main effect of exchange rate controls is to depress domestic consumption (including spending on things like education) in order to boost exports rather than significantly affect education outcomes. Additionally, China already has quite good public education education enrollment (95%) and its exchange rate policy is a major drag on developing countries looking to export.

http://www.cfr.org/china/chinas-exchange-rate-policy-heat/p21455

China might stop currency manipulation on its own at some point decades from now for whatever reason, but development is unlikely to matter in this decision looking at the history of other countries which practiced the same policy.

None of this is really personal preference when taking everyone's interests into account. All of the benefits of manipulation are relatively short term and the costs long term. A stronger world economy means faster technological advance and faster poverty reduction in countries other than China if you insist on thinking in the medium term. And when you slow global economic growth it will come around to you, if not now then many generations later.

 

Offline Luis Dias

  • 211
Re: The Socio-Economic Rise of China
Overall, though, the main effect of exchange rate controls is to depress domestic consumption (including spending on things like education) in order to boost exports rather than significantly affect education outcomes. Additionally, China already has quite good public education education enrollment (95%) and its exchange rate policy is a major drag on developing countries looking to export.

Ok, you convinced me there, except for the little issue of depressing consumption will include education, which I don't think follows very well. Education is an internal activity, not an import...

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China might stop currency manipulation on its own at some point decades from now for whatever reason, but development is unlikely to matter in this decision looking at the history of other countries which practiced the same policy.

You made a point about Japan. Is there any possible relationship between japan's currency manipulation and the apparently unlinked "lost decade"?

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None of this is really personal preference when taking everyone's interests into account. All of the benefits of manipulation are relatively short term and the costs long term. A stronger world economy means faster technological advance and faster poverty reduction in countries other than China if you insist on thinking in the medium term. And when you slow global economic growth it will come around to you, if not now then many generations later.

I see. So it's a kind of a tragedy of the commons phenomena. But if they do this by overprinting money, wouldn't that cause big time inflation instead? I better read on your sources before venturing on these things I badly understand though... thanks for your time

 
Re: The Socio-Economic Rise of China
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Ok, you convinced me there, except for the little issue of depressing consumption will include education, which I don't think follows very well. Education is an internal activity, not an import...

Education is domestic consumption. However, devaluing the exchange rate will raise the price of domestic consumption (or lower the value of the currency you use to pay for it; same effect). The end result is the resources you need (college educated professionals - eg teachers, construction equipment, managers, whatever you have to pay for to fund education) become harder to get as they are reallocated to producing exports. But it really makes little difference either way in regards to exchange rates.

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You made a point about Japan. Is there any possible relationship between japan's currency manipulation and the apparently unlinked "lost decade"?

It was likely part of it. The Plaza Accord of 1985 was an agreement between the US, West Germany, the UK and Japan to allow the yen to appreciate. This encouraged investment to flow into Japan (rember the balance of payments identity and the capital account moving opposite exports?), fueling the asset price bubble. It also forced a disruptive patrial transition from an export based economy to one based more on domestic consumption. Other factors contributing to the Japanese asset price bubble leading to the Lost Decade might include low interest rates and banking derequlation. They all happened at the same time to it's hard to finger just one.

So it's possible, but floating the Yen (freeing/"demanipulating" as it were the exchange rate) wasn't a clear culprit and it's good that it happened eventually. Not that the Japanese completely stopped debasing their currency afterwards.

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I see. So it's a kind of a tragedy of the commons phenomena. But if they do this by overprinting money, wouldn't that cause big time inflation instead? I better read on your sources before venturing on these things I badly understand though... thanks for your time

No problem. I learned a lot myself. Have to get to class, will answer you later.
« Last Edit: June 09, 2011, 03:27:02 pm by Mustang19 »