Hmmm, what should I do with you? There is a reason why I used the word "suspect" - to imply that this is speculation, which most of the people got. However, if I say it is speculation, it does not mean there is no grounds for it. Unfortunately I did not have time to talk about this with German colleagues today to hear what they think about it, but yes, the ruling is very questionable.
Why do I find the ruling questionable? There is no good definition on the cases which would invoke military response. Furthermore, this allows combat weapons to be used, which is more than weird for me at least. The only way I can think of this would be necessary is a large scale uncontrolled riot or uprising. In other emergencies, military usually doesn't even need firearms - but then why add such a ruling? No need for a such thing can be seen at the moment, but from what I have heard is that German general opinion is starting to question the euro itself.
What I think will cause nationalism to raise up? It is the looming break up of euro, that has probably became inevitable now. I think Germans don't know how much trouble they are going to get from the collapse of the euro, as lots of German banks have loaned with very high risks to South European countries - countries that cannot pay back, and which also bought German stuff. At the moment the German commerce works well, but this is mainly because the surrounding countries have bought German stuff - and now that is in decline. Germany too has a relatively high level of debt to pay on top of that. Further, it is within the interests of Southern Europeans to transfer lots of their national debt to ECB, and to the further European Stability Fund (I don't know the exact name in English). This is what they are mostly going to do, and I understand it. I would try to do it too, if I were in charge there. The other possibility to solve this mess is to devaluate the euro . Third solution is the break up of eurozone.
Now, the more stable European countries then do not want to participate in paying those loans. That is not strange either, given the circumstances. I don't think this will work in the long run, one solution has been given, the unionization process, but the problem is, it is just more agreements and deals, but who anymore trusts those agreements? That seems to be the first thing that gets rolled over. This is basically the same as that those who are doing well (for now) cough up the cash for the debt and trust the process to correct itself which hasn't worked so far. The same Southern Europeans will say that it is Germany who has benefited most from the euro (no surprise, since the German economy happens to be the closest to the ideal euro economy). The actual numbers show 10 % decrease in living standard and wages in Germany, but it doesn't matter since the absolute values of those wages are still higher. The industry in other Southern European countries has suffered greatly, but it is not clear to me at the moment whether this is a side effect of euro, or just stupid political decisions. In Finland's case, it is mostly the latter. The unionization process will face fierce opposition from Southern Europe (they will agree on ESF bailing them out, but will oppose anything that would change their ability to control their countries), and would actually shift the governments there towards right - the way to defend themselves against EU is the rise of nationalism.
How about a partial break up of eurozone? This has been discussed quite heavily here, but the problem is that Southern European countries are very much intertwined with their loans. Breaking one country from the euro zone would immediately render several tens of billion of deficits in others. For whatever reason, the bailout packages to Greece do not show any difference in the national debt, and this is the same for all indebted euro countries. It would be crazy to expect otherwise from further packages. If the whole Southern Europe is broken up from the euro zone, German banks are going to need funding next, and that cannot be done any more as most of the extra money has been spent in the bailout packages. Not an option, I think.
How about the devaluation of euro, and taking a larger inflation target? This is the former economy in the earlier Southern European countries, and is mainly driven by selfishness. The fundamental reason for this sort of structure of economy is that everybody wants more, and then gets a raise. In order to keep all things equal, that means that the value of the currency will be decreased. This is the easiest way to do it, though very painful for everybody who has saved cash. The devaluation of euro would immediately affect the bank accounts of Germans. The Germans are very much opposed on this action, but then again, they are against spending money in the course of ECB to South too.
Two last possibilities are complete break up of euro zone, or Germany breaking up from eurozone. Both mean that all affected banks will suffer, and there would no doubt be restructuring of the government debts to become realistic in payable terms, or just cancellations of the debt. If Germany does this alone, that means they will lose some amount of those loans (I think some amount of that bailout packages have gone directly to banks, not only in Germany), but more alarmingly, their new currency value would increase - at first at least. This is BAD news, as the surrounding countries would not be able to afford in German products, and Germany relies on exports to Europe, and they would find it even harder to sell stuff to China.
So, what does this have to do with riots? Well, Germany is going to lose money no matter what at this point - this is already a reason for civil unrest, if it happens in a large enough scale and especially if it is shown that German banks have seriously ****ed up their loaning strategies. The rest of it depends on what kind of route will be taken - if it is devaluation, then the lowest wage workers can barely afford living in Germany which will lead to social unrest - plus that you also anger the people who have wealth and power. If it is a new currency, this is already a step towards nationalism. Since the ruling parties in Germany are still weighing towards euro, at least some amount of steps towards right is needed. But I'm afraid it is would not be as simple as that. Since German currency would be valued very high, it would stop the exports from Germany, which will lead towards social unrest. I don't know if it will extend to rioting, but this ruling seems to be a reservation for that.
So, in short I see the court ruling as a precaution for things to come. Any further questions? I see that today, UK and German papers are speculating on Finnish departure from euro. That speculation has started in Finnish magazines too, and some of the companies have already traded the currency used in the deals to dollars. Our EU-minister is repeating similar sort of phrases that were heard in the home made recession in the 1990s, "We will not devalue!" vs. "Finland is fully committed to euro!" The situation in the whole EU level is relatively similar to ours in the 1990, the most reasonable way would be to devalue the euro, or break up some countries and allow them to have their own currencies. Seemingly since this has not happened, German banks have too much invested there, the other possibility is the German reluctance on devaluation. Unless, of course, somebody figures out a way how Germany could get out of this without losing money, but I don't think that will be possible.
The fundamental reason for the crisis is banking and politics. Banking sector for giving out loans with ridiculous risks, and politics for not keeping the legalization and control up to date. Banking crisis is the worst, as it will affect everyone - Iceland managed to pull this one of, but not without a hint of nationalism. The latest banking crisis went past here without rioting (though this would have been justified and should have happened in my opinion), but the guys down there in the South seem to have more temperament... The Chinese have a curse that goes "May you live in interesting times!" - Now I know understand what that means.
EDIT: Oh and I forgot to add, what is actually the difference between a riot and a demonstration? And what is the difference between them in a tight spot?
