Poll

Is the US going to take the dive?

*neeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrmmmmmmm* THUD!
19 (33.3%)
*people in white coats lead Uncle Sam away from the edge*
5 (8.8%)
Snuffleupagus is dead.  Long live Snuffleupagus!
33 (57.9%)

Total Members Voted: 57

Author Topic: The plunge off the fiscal cliff [Poll]  (Read 10240 times)

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Offline MP-Ryan

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The plunge off the fiscal cliff [Poll]
What do we think, folks?  Are we going to see a deal in the next two days?
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Offline Scotty

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Re: The plunge off the fiscal cliff [Poll]
For the sake of my job and income I sure as hell hope so.  I work at the Commissary on the local post, and ship off the Basic in two weeks and change.

Granted, I'm more than a little fuzzy on what exactly would happen if a deal isn't made, but it can't be "good" for federal institutions that spend a lot of money.

 

Offline NGTM-1R

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Re: The plunge off the fiscal cliff [Poll]
I'm expecting a TARP replay, where violent market backlash scares the Republican-controlled House into doing what it is told.
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Offline Mongoose

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Re: The plunge off the fiscal cliff [Poll]
It's really sad, but it's come to the point where I don't really give a **** either way.

 
Re: The plunge off the fiscal cliff [Poll]
After thinking it over, I've really nothing useful to say.  "A plague o' both your houses," is ringing in my ears and raising my blood to a boil, but after all of the utter disappointments both the Republican and Democratic parties have proven to be, and after the complete and utter failure of the electorate to vote them out of office, really, it is just a useless sentiment, isn't it?

It isn't like what I or anyone else thinks has the slightest impact on the outcome.  Didn't during elections, and it sure as hell doesn't now.
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Offline SypheDMar

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Re: The plunge off the fiscal cliff [Poll]
If 2011 gridlock told us anything, then I don't think we'll jump off the edge, especially since the Tea Party became weaker and is pressured by Wall Street to do something. I believe this cliff is a non-issue.

 

Offline Klaustrophobia

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Re: The plunge off the fiscal cliff [Poll]
a last minute deal will be made, for which obama will claim credit.  i'd have been surprised if it was settled before now.
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Offline StarSlayer

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Re: The plunge off the fiscal cliff [Poll]
In this week's rendition of Thelma and Louise the roles of Gina Davis and Sharon Stone will be instead played by Barrack and Boehner.

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Offline Aardwolf

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Re: The plunge off the fiscal cliff [Poll]
So basically taxes are going to go back to what they were before the Bush cuts, right? That sounds awesome, is there some other part I'm missing?

 
Re: The plunge off the fiscal cliff [Poll]
Boehner has no control over the far right wing of his caucus.  They wouldn't provide him enough votes in the House to force through his own, "**** negotiating!" budget plan, because they didn't want to violate Grover Norquist's anti-tax pledge.  Having realized that this has stripped him of all negotiating power (after all, if the highest-ranking Republican in the House can't get his caucus to vote for a budget plan designed by Republicans for Republicans, how can he be trusted to deliver Republican votes on a broader compromise bill?), he's passed the buck to the Senate.  The problem with that is that the Senate can't originate omnibus budget legislation, since all revenue-related bills are Constitutionally required to originate in the House (Article I, Section 7, Paragraph 1).

If the Tea Party types don't back off on the Norquist pledge beforehand, then there will be no deal until the election for Speaker of the House is over.  At that point, if he's still Speaker, Boehner can hash out a compromise with House Democrats and more moderate Republicans.  If he's not still Speaker, then it's hard to say, as how long it will take to get a deal will depend entirely on who replaces him, and who will be the next Speaker of the House is a topic worthy of a thread unto itself.

Either way, we're not getting a deal, prior to the new year, when the sequester kicks in.  I wouldn't expect it to last beyond January, though.  Actually, I wouldn't expect it to last much beyond the first week of January.  Boehner just needs to stonewall the Senate and President long enough to secure his next term as Speaker.  The Speakership election is typically one of the first orders of business in the House, upon returning after an election year.  The 113th Congress will convene on January third.

In fairness, if House Democrats wanted to speed a deal, they could pledge to support Boehner's ongoing Speakership, if he'd start negotiating with them in the room, alongside moderate House Republicans, while cutting the Tea Party caucus out entirely.  That would reduce/eliminate his political need to be so obstinate in negotiations, prior to that particular vote, but House Democrats are probably individually worried about how poisonous supporting Boehner could be to their own careers, further down the road.

Coincidentally, the government shutdown of 1995/1996 lasted twenty-eight days.  It ended on January sixth of 1996, three days after Congress reconvened and reelected Newt Gingrich as Speaker of the House.  I say this, just in case anyone was looking for a bit of historical precedent regarding this kind of situation.

[addition]

So basically taxes are going to go back to what they were before the Bush cuts, right? That sounds awesome, is there some other part I'm missing?

Yes, in addition to the taxes returning to Clinton-era levels, spending will be slashed, by $1.2 trillion, with very few areas exempt from cuts.  (Ex.:  The normally untouchable Defense budget is subject to the wanton cuts, and while military officers cannot have their salaries reduced, they can be furloughed or fired, hence Scotty's justified unease.)

 

Offline BrotherBryon

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Re: The plunge off the fiscal cliff [Poll]
We are going to go over at least temporarily. I just don't see them being able to work a compromise through in time, not while the current batch of tea party crazies and ultra conservatives republicans remain in power. Best possible scenario at this point is a temporary measure that delays the sequester long enough for the next congress to take a stab at it, and even that solution is looking to be a long shot at this time. As for the tax raises the Democrats are holding all the cards in that arena and they know it. Most likely scenario for them is to allow all the tax cuts to expire and then push through a new set of tax cuts geared towards the middle class thus keeping Obama's promise. Republicans will be forced to go along with it as to be seen as not supporting the new targeted tax breaks is politically toxic for them.

We may see a coup for house speaker given all the fracturing going on now within the Republican party itself these days. Beohner's position has been weakened over this whole mess and we very well could see Eric Cantor taking over as speaker.
Holy Crap. SHIVANS! Tours

 
Re: The plunge off the fiscal cliff [Poll]
We may see a coup for house speaker given all the fracturing going on now within the Republican party itself these days. Beohner's position has been weakened over this whole mess and we very well could see Eric Cantor taking over as speaker.

At the risk of a derail, I do need to point out that it is the entire House of Representatives votes for Speaker, not just the majority party, and it requires a full majority, not a mere plurality to take the position.  If the majority party votes as a unified block, then they get to appoint whoever they want, but when the majority party is fractured, the House becomes something more akin to a European parliament, where factions must form a ruling coalition to select a Speaker, or risk gridlock.

Cantor looks a little more favorable to the Tea Party types than Boehner, but if Democrats as a block and a small number of moderate Republicans (only just over a dozen, out of 233 GOP members!) oppose him, then Cantor cannot take the position.  Likewise, if Democrats as a block and Tea Party Republicans oppose Boehner, he cannot continue to hold the position.  The Democrats do not have the raw numbers to pick the Speaker on their own, but with the GOP fractured and the majority and minority separated by a mere thirty-three votes, the Democratic caucus potentially has veto power over whoever the GOP puts forward for the Speakership.

I should have asked for January third off work, so that I could keep myself glued to C-SPAN all day, because selecting the next Speaker has the potential to be amazing.  (I can't be the only one who finds C-SPAN to be gripping entertainment, right?)

 

Offline LordMelvin

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Re: The plunge off the fiscal cliff [Poll]
I should have asked for January third off work, so that I could keep myself glued to C-SPAN all day, because selecting the next Speaker has the potential to be amazing.  (I can't be the only one who finds C-SPAN to be gripping entertainment, right?)
You're not the only one, no.

I wonder if they'd mind if I had one of the TVs at work on cspan instead of the usual ijjit-friendly tripe...
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Offline Swazi Spring

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Re: The plunge off the fiscal cliff [Poll]
I believe Obama wants to go over the fiscal cliff in order to further his agenda. He's going to try to blame the upcoming recession on the Republicans. Perhaps more sinister than that, however, is his plan to use the economic turmoil to enact even more leftist legislation.

 

Offline watsisname

Re: The plunge off the fiscal cliff [Poll]
You make very ****ty posts.
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Swallowed by the seductive night.

 

Offline NGTM-1R

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Re: The plunge off the fiscal cliff [Poll]
I believe Obama wants to go over the fiscal cliff in order to further his agenda. He's going to try to blame the upcoming recession on the Republicans. Perhaps more sinister than that, however, is his plan to use the economic turmoil to enact even more leftist legislation.

I believe you're an alt.
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Offline General Battuta

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Re: The plunge off the fiscal cliff [Poll]

 

Offline Mort

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Re: The plunge off the fiscal cliff [Poll]
A compromise will be reached. A compromise that is hugely disappointing, solves nothing and only kicks the can down the road

  

Offline Goober5000

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Re: The plunge off the fiscal cliff [Poll]
I'm expecting a TARP replay, where violent market backlash scares the Republican-controlled House into doing what it is told.
When TARP was passed in 2008, the Democrats controlled both houses of Congress.


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If he is, he isn't showing as such in the admin panel.

 

Offline NGTM-1R

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Re: The plunge off the fiscal cliff [Poll]
When TARP was passed in 2008, the Democrats controlled both houses of Congress.

Insufficient numbers of Democrats were willing to vote for it in the House to pass it. After the first failure to pass the TARP and the market crash that resulted, however, it passed the House on a wave of a Republican panic about their primary donors. The shift in Democrat votes between the first and second attempts at passage was far less significant.
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