[MP-Ryan]

Saying China's system works now and is successful is quite comparable to building a house on cheap land overtop of a recently-dropped unexploded bomb and saying it's a great idea and financial success because the bomb hasn't gone off yet.  It says nothing about the long-term prospects of the strategy.

China is smack in the middle of a transition that's going to take over a century, and current prospects on economic outlook, energy consumption, and environmental damage, (not to mention civil unrest) are not particularly good if they don't alter course soon.

If their artificial undervaluation of their currency doesn't bite them square on the ass, their energy infrastructure will.  If energy doesn't, the pollution will.  If the pollution doesn't, the corruption will.  And if the corruption doesn't, their contunous suppression of human rights and their citizenry will.  China has a simmering pot of major issues underlying their economic "success" that aren't going away.  The drive for economic success has come at the cost of many other aspects of daily life, and sooner or later they're going to have to pay that bill.

[StarSlayer]

I always figured the west went through the industrial revolution growing pains when all we had was steam and coal, China (and likely India) are going through theirs in the age of chemicals and nuclear power.  They've got a much higher chance of screwing themselves over in a big way before they make it out the other side.

[666maslo666]

Saying China's system works now and is successful is quite comparable to building a house on cheap land overtop of a recently-dropped unexploded bomb and saying it's a great idea and financial success because the bomb hasn't gone off yet.  It says nothing about the long-term prospects of the strategy.

China is smack in the middle of a transition that's going to take over a century, and current prospects on economic outlook, energy consumption, and environmental damage, (not to mention civil unrest) are not particularly good if they don't alter course soon.

If their artificial undervaluation of their currency doesn't bite them square on the ass, their energy infrastructure will.  If energy doesn't, the pollution will.  If the pollution doesn't, the corruption will.  And if the corruption doesn't, their contunous suppression of human rights and their citizenry will.  China has a simmering pot of major issues underlying their economic "success" that aren't going away.  The drive for economic success has come at the cost of many other aspects of daily life, and sooner or later they're going to have to pay that bill.

I think Chinese growth is based on solid foundations, they have a diversified economy, lots of industries, are rapidly educating their population and invest heavily in infrastructure. When it comes to energy they are building a lot of renewable and nuclear capacity, so that is also fine for the future, and barring peak oil they wont run out of stuff to burn anytime soon. The pollution is a concern but it is one that will cost them some lost lives and $billions, not one that could bring down the economy. Besides, fast industrialisation + pollution is preferable to anemic industrial growth with clean environment. Corruption is a concern, but again it wont bring down the economy nor is it much worse than in other comparable developing nations. The same applies to human rights, altough that is an area where I dont agree with their policies at all.

[666maslo666]

I always figured the west went through the industrial revolution growing pains when all we had was steam and coal, China (and likely India) are going through theirs in the age of chemicals and nuclear power.  They've got a much higher chance of screwing themselves over in a big way before they make it out the other side.

Really? Id say it is the other way around and due to modern technologies and know-how they have a lower chance to screw themselves over, if anything.

[headdie]

I always figured the west went through the industrial revolution growing pains when all we had was steam and coal, China (and likely India) are going through theirs in the age of chemicals and nuclear power.  They've got a much higher chance of screwing themselves over in a big way before they make it out the other side.

I would be more tempted to say that western economics has evolved over centuries by something akin to natural evolution/selection, China on the other hand is trying to engineer the same changes and in the space of decades without the flexibility of an open economy.  In Chinas command economy they are expecting everything to work out in the end regardless of outside factors.

[redsniper]

The pollution is a concern but it is one that will cost them some lost lives and $billions, not one that could bring down the economy. Besides, fast industrialisation + pollution is preferable to anemic industrial growth with clean environment.

Goddamn, I know right? Why the hell would you want to have fewer unnecessary deaths or a clean environment if it ends up COSTING MORE??? People don't think this stuff through, smh.

[Dragon]

Note, it's typical corporate thinking. Chinese do a lot of that. No company would implement an expensive policy solely "because it's good for environment". Usually, either governments need to force them to keep pollution down with sanctions, or the "green" policy also happens to save them money. Now, China essentially acts like one big corporation, and there's noone to tell them to stop polluting. Oh, and workforce in China is cheap, so they don't mind a few deaths.

[karajorma]

Let me supply a few anecdotes to argue this from a different angle from the economic one MP-Ryan is using.

1) A recent case which hit the news was where a baby died because the ambulance the family called refused to go to the hospital until they were certain they would be paid by the family.

That's an extreme version of the sort of thing I hear every day. Pretty much every foreigner is told to ignore ambulances unless absolutely vital and just simply take a taxi instead.

2) More relevant to the article in question. Do you know what is probably the largest factor that stopped the housing bubble from bursting already? It was the decidedly uncapitalistic intervention of the Chinese government who brought out laws forbidding people taking out mortgages on properties for rent.

Now I'm not going to claim that China's approach hasn't helped improve the lives of people in the country, but you have to remember where they were before Deng Xiaoping's economic reforms.

You're quoting Wikipedia articles, which is great, but I'm talking to people who actually lived through the Cultural Revolution.

And from here it's quite clear that China have taken a massive economic gamble which might not pay off. I certainly wouldn't assume that China's current economic success is in any way sustainable, impressive as it has been so far.

[666maslo666]

Goddamn, I know right? Why the hell would you want to have fewer unnecessary deaths or a clean environment if it ends up COSTING MORE??? People don't think this stuff through, smh.

Poverty is a human rights violation of the highest order. More so than dirty environment. Maintaining economic growth is paramount for any developing nation. After all, they can always go green later, when they are wealthy and can afford it.

Now I am not sure there is a dichotomy between fast industrialisation and clean environment, but if there is, then the first one is certainly preferable.

[Mars]

Poverty is a human rights violation of the highest order. More so than dirty environment. Maintaining economic growth is paramount for any developing nation. After all, they can always go green later, when they are wealthy and can afford it.

Now I am not sure there is a dichotomy between fast industrialisation and clean environment, but if there is, then the first one is certainly preferable.

Quick economic growth doesn't necessarily do anything at all to poverty in terms of percentage.

[Mikes]

Poverty is a human rights violation of the highest order. More so than dirty environment. Maintaining economic growth is paramount for any developing nation. After all, they can always go green later, when they are wealthy and can afford it.

Yeah, right!

I don't think you get it ... "going green" is kinda like acting "ethical" ...  as long as everyone works together, it works, as soon as only one guy starts throwing the rules over board - without consequences - , that one guy gains enough advantage to screw everyone else over with impunity.

If that is allowed to go on long enough there is a point where everyone else suddenly questions why they should remain ethical / green as well.
On the other hand you can of course definitely understand China, the "new guy" as well ...  if you have to catch up you use every advantage you can get, that's just human nature as well.

So there's either a huge confrontation with China looming or alternatively we'll just stop pretending that we are in any kind of form still interested in the long term future of our planet species.

Also a large reason of why US culture is as it is in regards to ethics and why people who can will keep screwing others over to the point and if the economy collapses in the process who cares as long as they themselves get out richer than before. (and worse ... the fact that there are still people who classify any behavior that ends up enriching the individual as "smart", no matter the circumstances.)

[headdie]

Poverty is a human rights violation of the highest order. More so than dirty environment. Maintaining economic growth is paramount for any developing nation. After all, they can always go green later, when they are wealthy and can afford it.

Now I am not sure there is a dichotomy between fast industrialisation and clean environment, but if there is, then the first one is certainly preferable.

Quick economic growth doesn't necessarily do anything at all to poverty in terms of percentage.

which is related to the whole quality of GDP which the video talked about.  High GDP growth is great but you need something to show for it in the end in terms of goods the market wants and the value of those goods.

Though from the video the demand is there for additional housing, the truth is that what is available is not only bad value for the market but is also priced outside of that market's affordability, as such while money is being spent, nothing is replacing that money because no one can afford to spend what is being asked.  If they could afford it, not only would the money be replaced thus sustaining GDP the people in that market would also benefit from the improved living standards as a side effect.

[Luis Dias]

Last two decades we saw the fastest decline in poverty in the world that has ever happened, and the bulk of that was in China.

There's a lot of talk about inequality lately and with good reason, but look at this graph now:



and tell me that there hasn't been any development regarding poverty, etc.

About the environment, well. They are building coal power plants like crazy despite the smog burning their citizen's lungs. I'm sure it will be alright.

[karajorma]

Unlike the smog of old London, the citizenry in China are very much aware of exactly how bad for them the high pollution present in bad days in Beijing and most of Jiangsu is.

How do you expect to have economic growth when there are 100 million people who don't want to leave the house for anything that isn't essential?

[Lorric]

It's interesting to see China's economic growth talked about in a different way to the way I normally see whenever it comes up, that China is this unstoppable juggernaut that is ever picking up momentum and destined to rule the World economically.

I wonder if the Chinese themselves would have a bit of a chuckle and shake of the head at such ideas?

[StarSlayer]

Well according to "Future 80s" (which is best future) Japan should be the world economic juggernaut and look how that turned out.

[General Battuta]

Well according to "Future 80s" (which is best future) Japan should be the world economic juggernaut and look how that turned out.

I can recommend several documentaries by parallel Earth historians 'Tom Clancy' and 'Michael Crichton' exploring our struggles against the rise of glorious Nippon.

[Grizzly]

Unlike the smog of old London, the citizenry in China are very much aware of exactly how bad for them the high pollution present in bad days in Beijing and most of Jiangsu is.

How do you expect to have economic growth when there are 100 million people who don't want to leave the house for anything that isn't essential?

My brother is a student at Wageningen, which happens to be a world renowned university when it comes to Biology. As a result a lot of Chinese students go there, and some get to live in the same dorm (is that the proper word?) as he does.
Every single one of those students has remarked on how clean the air is here.

[Luis Dias]

How do you expect to have economic growth when there are 100 million people who don't want to leave the house for anything that isn't essential?

No mr. Bond, I expect you to di...

ahh..

I mean, it matters zero percent what I expect. What is true is that china has been growing at 7%+ every year now with all naysayers been forecasting their doom for more than 15 years now. To say "how do you expect to have economic growth" when we *do* see economic growth with our own very eyes is an exercise in wankidom IMHO. They are growing, and that's that.

Well according to "Future 80s" (which is best future) Japan should be the world economic juggernaut and look how that turned out.

There's a lot of truth in this and I've discussed this point elsewhere. Take notice that although it would be really far fetched for Japan to outpass the USA in raw total GDP due to their pop numbers, it is fairly easy for China to surpass the US's total GDP, given they are 10x the population size of Japan. They don't need much innovation even. They just need to do what they are doing right now, build infrastructure and use foreign proven technologies to optimize and speed up their economy. Once their GDP per person is somewhere in the vicinity of 20/30% that of the US, they will have surpassed them in total GDP.

That is scheduled to happen somewhere after 2017 and before 2024.

[Grizzly]

Japan did not make it mainly due to ... an economic crash in Asia, right?