[Mongoose]

I already have neocon wannabees on Facebook and elsewhere calling Obama "Neville Chamberlain."  Terrific.

[Dragon]

Yup. Russia is checking just how much they can get away with before the west considers doing something about it. I have a feeling this won't end well for the world...
The unmarked troops are probably Spetznaz equivalent of tier 1 black ops or former Berkut operators operating on Russian orders. Not many other options there, I think. Sufficient to say, it's not a good sign. It's probably in everyone's best interests that Russia does not get it's way here like it did in Georgia. Because they aren't going to stop here if they do. And Belarus is much more suppressed than Ukraine, so I think I know what their next target will be...

Well, I'm about 4.5 years (at least if everything goes right) from graduating from the university. There were 6 years between Georgia and Ukraine conflicts, and if the situation resolves in Russia's favor, they might not wait that long. Anyway, I'll probably be looking for a job abroad. In New Zealand, perhaps, I've heard the weather is lovely there, and IIRC, they mostly speak English... Failing that, a nice, remote lab in the US, far away from anything of strategic importance and working on something completely useless from the military point of view.

[An4ximandros]

Canada has pulled out of the G8 Summit and withdrew ambassadors from Russia.

[Luis Dias]

Not just Canada. The G8 is suspended.

[Dragon]

I'm not surprised. After all that's happened, words are not enough. Putin has all but authorized the invasion (and IIRC, Duma already did even that). Further sanctions on Russia are required, and hosting a summit there is certainly a bad idea. There should be a summit where national leaders would talk about what should they do, but without Russia.

[Rakebuzz]

It might now just take one stressed dude to accidently pull some trigger, and the two armies will go at it at full force.
Not sure if a world war is unlikely. I think China and Russia are more prepared for global madness then America and Europe....
And if they form a pact, Europe will be screwed.... we just ain't got the numbers!!
We in Holland have got less then a low budget skeleton crew army. We fire a lot every year. Money issues...And if we have to deploy them in the east, and they fall there, there is not a lot left to fight for us over here when the sky get's black with parachutists.... Cause that is what will happen if the **** will hit the fan!
Russia flies over Holland every year with their nuke bombers. Just to show muscle (it was in the papers a few times). We have no idea what's in them every time, and every time we just have to pray on Russia Enginering untill they leave our airspace... Airplane crashes are always a possibility. And what if they are carrying?? If we would fly some bombers over the kremlin, they might ask us what the F we are doing over there, and go into their usual big-toes-mode, and boycot the lot from Holland again! ('Their cows walk outside, so their milk and cheese are most likely contaminated with one or two bacteria and not up to our standards'-BS...) But they can do what they want because you should never make it hard for a bully madman??    And now there are paralympics.... I would neverever go! Not with WW 3 on the doorstep! Olympics are one week old and Russia is going into MADMODE again... "Partytime,peace and tranquility is over! Time for another tank-drill...."

We should kick Russia and China out of the Big Club. If there are crooks in your club, you've got, and are a member of... a club of crooks! It's as simple as that.

[The E]

It might now just take one stressed dude to accidently pull some trigger, and the two armies will go at it at full force.

I think you are overestimating the fragility of the situation. Yes, it's certainly hairy, but I am pretty sure that noone will start a war because of a small incident.

Not sure if a world war is unlikely. I think China and Russia are more prepared for global madness then America and Europe....
And if they form a pact, Europe will be screwed.... we just ain't got the numbers!!

Not that we need numbers. Invasions for territorial gain are the stupidest thing to do in the current world; Given that Europe doesn't have anything Russia or China would want, there is little justification for it anyway.

We in Holland have got less then a low budget skeleton crew army. We fire a lot every year. Money issues...And if we have to deploy them in the east, and they fall there, there is not a lot left to fight for us over here when the sky get's black with parachutists.... Cause that is what will happen if the **** will hit the fan!

No, it won't. This isn't WW2. And, let us be honest here, the Netherlands are strictly irrelevant compared to Germany, France and the UK. If you want a military conquest of Europe, those are the countries you need to beat first.

Also, did I mention that invading Europe would be the downfall of Russia as a superpower? Because that's not how you wage war today.

Russia flies over Holland every year with their nuke bombers. Just to show muscle (it was in the papers a few times). We have no idea what's in them every time, and every time we just have to pray on Russia Enginering untill they leave our airspace... Airplane crashes are always a possibility.

Every year? I've seen references to an incident from 2011, but not a yearly repeat of it. Can you provide sources? (Also, the risk of a Tu 95 or Tu 160 crashing over the Netherlands is minuscule to them crashing while en route)

And what if they are carrying?? If we would fly some bombers over the kremlin, they might ask us what the F we are doing over there, and go into their usual big-toes-mode, and boycot the lot from Holland again! ('Their cows walk outside, so their milk and cheese are most likely contaminated with one or two bacteria and not up to our standards'-BS...) But they can do what they want because you should never make it hard for a bully madman??

It is the sovereign right of any country to enact trade restrictions. If they want to restrict trade with NL wares, that's their business. They don't have an obligation to buy from you, and you do not have an obligation to sell to them.

    And now there are paralympics.... I would neverever go! Not with WW 3 on the doorstep! Olympics are one week old and Russia is going into MADMODE again... "Partytime,peace and tranquility is over! Time for another tank-drill...."

Dude, I don't know if you're aware, but this entire thing? It's been planned for years. It's not a situation where Putin just woke up one morning and fancied himself a bit of Crimea. What we're seeing is a long-planned operation to turn the Crimea into a russian protectorate or satellite state.

We should kick Russia and China out of the Big Club. If there are crooks in your club, you've got, and are a member of... a club of crooks! It's as simple as that.

Then we should probably exclude the US as well. And the UK. And France. And Germany. And Japan. And Italy. And Canada.

[Rakebuzz]

http://www.nrcnext.nl/blog/2012/07/03/next-checkt-bijna-dagelijks-verjaagt-een-f-16-een-russisch-vliegtuig/

http://nos.nl/artikel/417408-f16s-onderscheppen-russen.html

http://www.telegraaf.nl/binnenland/21879056/__F16_s_uitgerukt_in_Volkel__.html

quick summery....it seems that yearly is un understatement.
it happens roughly 6 times a year.

[some Dutch text]
Conclusie
Volgens minister Hans Hillen „verjaagt een F-16 nog bijna maandelijks een Russisch vliegtuig” uit het Nederlandse verantwoordelijkheidsgebied, het door de NAVO toegewezen luchtruim dat Nederland bewaakt. Dat gebeurt aanzienlijk minder dan de minister beweert. Toch gebeurt het regelmatig, volgens een woordvoerder van de Luchtmacht sinds 2009 zo’n vijf á zes keer per jaar. Op de formulering „verjagen” is ook wat aan te merken: dat komt in de praktijk neer op observeren en meevliegen tot het toestel ons luchtgebied verlaat.

[English]:
Spokesman of (dutch) Airforce says that it happens 5 to 6 times a year since 2009..


[more Dutch]
En dan is er nog de kwestie van het „verjagen”, zoals Hillen het tegenover Nu.nl formuleert. Het ministerie van Defensie vat het op haar website als volgt samen: „Wij vliegen naar de toestellen toe om poolshoogte te nemen en begeleiden ze dan ons verantwoordelijkheidsgebied uit.” Volgens de woordvoerder van de Luchtmacht komt het er in de praktijk op neer dat de F-16’s het Russische vliegtuig in de gaten houden en meevliegen tot die het luchtruim heeft verlaten. Dan wordt die taak overgedragen aan Deense, Engelse of Duitse straaljagers, afhankelijk van de vliegrichting. Van enige offensieve interventie, of het afdwingen van een bepaalde route, is geen sprake. De term „verjagen” is een misleidende overdrijving.

----------------

[part In English]: Driving them out of our airspace is mildly overstated. We go fly next to them to see what they are up to, untill they leave our space. then that task (taak) is given to the next country (Denish, Enlish or German fighters) it flies into. We do not force them into a route. To say that would be misleadingly exaggerating...

[Rakebuzz]

I think that China an Russia have a unique class of badness in comparison to all the other named countries.
But I guess it's all in the Eye of the beholder. And what the Eye is permitted to see....
Sure...nobody is without flaw, but it's the attitude and heart that matters when making decisions.
Some things are just plain malicious!

[Mpez]

I think that China an Russia have a unique class of badness in comparison to all the other named countries [...]
Sure...nobody is without flaw, but it's the attitude and heart that matters when making decisions.
Some things are just plain malicious!

Every country wants to selfishly gain as much as they can (some European countries, without the EU knowing, were secretly in talks with the Russians to not have an embargo on their goods). If we talk about evil, we should also mention the agreement for Kosovo to become independent, which set precedence for Russia's moves on Abkhazia and South Ossetia. While I would partially agree with what you are saying, it's nothing new in the world of politics.

Dude, I don't know if you're aware, but this entire thing? It's been planned for years. It's not a situation where Putin just woke up one morning and fancied himself a bit of Crimea. What we're seeing is a long-planned operation to turn the Crimea into a russian protectorate or satellite state.

Maybe, but it seems more like a "Plan B". In my opinion, Russia wanted whole Ukraine to cut ties with the EU and become more dependent on Russia. And Ukraine was dependent on Russia to start with (maybe a bit less after the previous revolution). Either Russia predicted and 'helped' to destabilize Ukraine's government to then try to bite off Crimea for themselves, or the situation went out of control and Russia is just adjusting on the fly (both scenarios being equally scary).

[Rakebuzz]

And what if they are carrying?? If we would fly some bombers over the kremlin, they might ask us what the F we are doing over there, and go into their usual big-toes-mode, and boycot the lot from Holland again! ('Their cows walk outside, so their milk and cheese are most likely contaminated with one or two bacteria and not up to our standards'-BS...) But they can do what they want because you should never make it hard for a bully madman??

It is the sovereign right of any country to enact trade restrictions. If they want to restrict trade with NL wares, that's their business. They don't have an obligation to buy from you, and you do not have an obligation to sell to them.

Did you think that was my point? You misunderstood. I don't give a ratsbutt if they take our cheese or not. My point is that they have no business flying armed or unarmed bombers over our country at their whimsy likings!

[The E]

Did you think that was my point? You misunderstood. I don't give a ratsbutt if they take our cheese or not. My point is that they have no business flying armed or unarmed bombers over our country at their whimsy likings!

The articles you linked to do not mention any violations of NL territorial airspace. According to them, the russian planes stay inside international airspace, something they are perfectly free to do according to the relevant treaties. That danish, german, dutch and british interceptors get sent out is a matter of prudence, not a matter of actively having to defend the airspace.

[Rakebuzz]

http://www.nrcnext.nl/blog/2012/07/03/next-checkt-bijna-dagelijks-verjaagt-een-f-16-een-russisch-vliegtuig/

Interpretaties
[q]
Dit is een onaangekondigde schending van het luchtruim en wordt door het ministerie opgevat als provocatie. Volgens de uitspraak van Hillen betreedt dus „bijna maandelijks” zo’n Russisch vliegtuig het Nederlandse verantwoordelijkheidsgebied.
[end q]

English:
This is an unannounced violation of the airspace that belongs to the Dutch Area of Responsibility.

I rest my case.

I do not care much for Wussion Woogle Twanslation. And their newspaper only state what Poetin wants it to state. Our newspaper and 8 ó clock news said that drunk diplomat was beating his children from left to right and the neighbours had to call the cops. And at the same time his drunk spous was driving through town on a rampage ride...
Their newspaper seems to have only said that the foul Dutch arrested their honourable diplomatic immune high represetative in an illigal raid and that they should respond in kind!

Do you want me to look that up too? I can fill three pages here with links if you like...

[The E]

You do know that "Area of responsibility" and "territorial airspace" are two different concepts, right? The area of responsibility extends far beyond the boundaries of national airspace (See this sentence in that article you linked: "Die toegewezen zone strekt zich uit boven het Nederlandse luchtruim en tot ver boven de Noordzee, tot zo'n 200 kilometer noordelijk van Leeuwarden."). A plane only violates your airspace if it crosses the border, or it enters the space above your territorial waters (which extend 20 nautical miles from the relevant land areas); That interceptors get sent out to intercept contacts far in advance of them actually crossing the border is only prudent. But, and that's the salient point here: That does not mean that dutch territory was ever violated.

So please. If you want to get all enraged? By all means, feel free. But do us a favour and actually inform yourself about the actual situation. Military aircraft entering foreign airspace unannounced is a big ****ing deal, and it happens very very rarely. It didn't happen here.

[Luis Dias]

Dude, I don't know if you're aware, but this entire thing? It's been planned for years. It's not a situation where Putin just woke up one morning and fancied himself a bit of Crimea. What we're seeing is a long-planned operation to turn the Crimea into a russian protectorate or satellite state.

Well, truth be told, it has been a de facto russian territory for quite a good deal of decades now. It's one of their most important naval bases giving them full access to the black sea (and thus the mediterranean), and the prospect of this thing being in the "protectorate" of Europe, or worse, NATO, was probably driving Putin and his cronies mad as hell for quite some time. They figured that as long as they could keep a russian puppet in power all would be fine, except that this particular puppet was so incompetently arrogant that he managed to ire the more ideologically western against him in such a way to just oust him completely.

This move against Crimea is (AFAIK) against international laws and so on, but at its core, it's a move to protect its influence in the black sea and its global importance. Now we can debate how much of this is Putin going berserk for profits and how it is just Moscow defending itself from NATO kicking the russians out of this country right on their doorstep, but what appears clear is that both Moscow and NATO aren't playing by the same rules here, and that got us here. The west was playing on the "insurrency" game, the "Ukraine Spring" narrative to get the ball rolling so that Kiev would eventually become european and then NATO-affilliated. Putin obviously hated this idea. The last thing they want is such a massive border so near Moscow given to NATO, especially one that has been russian for so long*. And so he decided to play different rules.

They are both managing the crisis badly (from the pov of the people). The best way to do this would be to arrange guarantees that Moscow would continue to be able to control its Sevastopol base and other previous deals with Ukraine despite its political leanings, and also guarantee that this country would not fall under NATO control. IOW, maintain the global politics status quo while providing political freedom to its regional populace.

Putin is playing hard, and the big question in my mind is how far is he willing to go to force NATO to resign its long-term objectives in Ukraine. This is why the reminiscence to 38/39, Checkoslovakia and so on is so damning. Is Putin playing a "Hitler" card here, or just being "reasonable" in trying to protect its regional interests? I have no idea except to say that I dislike Putin like hell (however that is irrelevant here).


* This is why Medvedev was caught saying how Ukrainian democracy was something they didn't want to happen back in 2008 /9. It's just a risk that Moscow couldn't take, and now we see why.

[Rakebuzz]

[q]
next.checkt heeft handmatig het archief doorgespit, en daaruit blijkt: in 2011 werden in tien gevallen F-16’s ingezet om een onbekend vliegtuig in het Nederlandse luchtruim te onderscheppen. Vier keer daarvan ging het om een civiel toestel, zes keer was er inderdaad sprake van een Russische Bear.
[end q.]

in 2011 6 times a Russian Bear was intercepted INSIDE DUTCH SPACE!

I'd like to think I am well informed.
But I understand I should let the matter rest....

[CKid]

Russia demands surrender of Ukraine's Crimea forces

[Dragon]

Well, it's escalating. Civil war is in full swing, protests from all sides are getting violent. In Crimea, there's not only Russian population, but also plenty of Tatars and a fair share of Ukrainians. They protest pro-Russian protests in there, especially Tatars have reasons to fear the Russian incursion (USSR made Hitler's associates from them, leading to ethnically-motivated massacres). Also, it's not like the Russian-speaking populace has it easy, with the current anti-Russian protests they did get hit pretty badly. While Russia's claims about protecting Russian-speaking population in Crimea are flimsy, their concerns about it are not without reason. And then there are Crimean nationalists, who don't want neither East nor West, but an independent Crimea. And that's not even counting foreign forces in the country...

Anyway, there will be a war. It seems inevitable, really. The only question is, will it be the WWIII, or something more like the war in Georgia? Though if it's the latter, Putin will get even cockier and will likely try the same thing with Poland. He will not stop. People like him never do. People like him are stopped, and it costs a lot. We've been through this before. Given our history, we'll have a WWIII then, because Poland might be a mismanaged mess slowly being sold off, but we really don't like being subjugated by force. I really hope this doesn't end like that, but things are looking more and more grim with time.

In any case, Nuke, if you ever wanted to swap your house in Alaska for a nice villa right at the front lines, my family might soon have an offer for you.

[Phantom Hoover]

The E has summed up quite well why a WWIII scenario is very unlikely. The world does not work like it did in the thirties.

[zookeeper]

The E has summed up quite well why a WWIII scenario is very unlikely. The world does not work like it did in the thirties.

Sure, to escalate the situation into WW proportions would require something unlikely and unexpected to happen, but on the other hand it still only requires one irrational actor.