[headdie]

The question for me is what would've happened to Steele's command in the alternate universe once they ended up scattered — or if in fact they would've ended up scattered at all. So much of the 14th's success depended on the confident, independent, aggressive action of its constituent elements even under some really unexpected circumstances.

You mean with Steele being the plans within plans moving pieces in a carefully orchastrated pattern and the AoA scenario depending more on reactions both of the Taskforce commander and its component senior officers?

[StarSlayer]

Here is something else to consider.  We know who the UEF are, the 14th didnt, the GTVA had very tight control on the data coming from Sol and the 14th had no way to verify what they were told.  Tell those ships crews that the local government is corrupt and regularly engages in acts criminalized under BETAC and suddenly in their eyes this is the act of a swift blow designed to minimize the impact of the confrontation on the civilian population while rescuing them from an evil regime.

The big lie doesn't work that well unless you can kill anyone who can contradict you.

They don't necessarily need to attempt the big lie, but with their crews in the dark and that gives the GTVA the opportunity to manufacture an incident that make the UEF appear the aggressors.  The 14th BG could have been sent through the gate with an Ops Plan ready to execute that would provide the illusion that the GTVA was provoked.  Once some "Gulf of Tonkin Incident" took place battlegroup personnel would be placed on a confrontational footing while operational tempo would reduce the chance of second guessing.  Once that machine is put in gear its momentum will carry it through and assuming the Sol System was decisively secured the GTVA can probably keep the lid on it long enough that it no longer matters when the truth comes to light.

[Damage]

I don't think Steele would've allowed his fleet to split up as much as Bei did, with two caveats--

1)  They'd be negligent not to do some scouting just to ascertain their current location/status/situation.
2)  If one of Steele's ships went running off like the GTC Duke did, you can bet he'd have sent forces to regain control.

Ditto for Lopez.  In any case, they need some information, and at that point the only method for gaining data was to do some good old-fashioned recon.

I'm going to change the direction of this topic a little:

Did the 14th Battlegroup really change during the events of AoA?  Did their experiences (esp. those of Bei's Sr and Jr) affect the actions of the whole fleet--

OR

Did the 14th Battlegroup under Adm Bei get sent through because its personnel had a higher average NGRI sensitivity in the first place because Threat-Two retroactively contrived events for that eventuality?

My eyes just went cross-eyed.

[Luis Dias]

I don't blame you, it's an interesting package of questions and I don't even feel the confidence of having all the necessary facts in my memory to recall in a such analytical systematic way.

[StarSlayer]

If we consider GTVI documents released through Granite Hunter Ops as legitimate there is an interesting theory forwarded on the subject.  Primarily that events in the alternate universe were in part contrived by Threat Two in order to create a control group of humans that they could modify, specifically the sleepers stored on Sanctuary.  This control group would then be inserted into the prepared environment on SoL.  Whether or not Threat Two was capable of influencing 14th Battle Group personnel assignments I cannot theorize, however, if we accept that Sanctuary is the foundation of a larger Threat Two operation then they at least must of expected to utilize the 14th in order to safely conduct Sanctuary to SoL.

[Damage]

There's a notion forming in my head and I don't think I can articulate it quite accurately now but I want to get it written out before it leaves and my kids distract me again.

Threat-Two may be capable of affecting past events (from our perspective) because their perception/interaction with space-time is different, and potentially far more advanced (for lack of a better phrase) than our own.  With the idea that the Sanctuary and the events of AoA were some sort of experiment to test the human species for potential...ascension?...There is an implication that the Vishnans themselves are not aware of the future--at least not any moreso than we are.

This is a thought that I find simultaneously reassuring and quite disturbing, because here's where it happened.

Because if the Vishnans cannot see their own future any better than we can, then they can be outfoxed.  However, if they can affect the past (again, from our perspective) why would they not be acting to preserve their own interests from ahead of our perspective, or are they in fact altering it in some so very subtle way that we ourselves cannot grasp we are being manipulated as the epileptic trees begin flowing forth?

[Luis Dias]

This idea of a species that cannot see the future but can interact with its own past is very interesting and has its own set of amazing issues, Arthur C Clark made a great story about that kind of thing.

[StarSlayer]

Which one?  For some reason I'm defaulting to Asimov's The End of Eternity

[Luis Dias]

That's the one.

[CT27]

You guys make a lot of sense and I should have realized Admiral Bei had knowledge of the 'real' plan beforehand.  It's just me probably, but I still kind of have trouble seeing Admiral Bei and some of the other higher ups originally being willing to possibly fry Chicago, London, Tokyo, etc. in beam fire.

They must have had some kind of war plan in case the UEF didn't surrender after the 14th parked itself above Earth right?

[crizza]

They would have taken the UEF completely by surprise.
Aside from Calder no one expected hostilities to begin with.
I don't think we would see a Diomedes cruising through Bradybury Fleetyards executing helpless UEF ships, but they TEVs would arrive ready for battle, while the UEF was not.

[CT27]

What do you think the plan was if the 14th was able to get in position above Earth, made their demands and the UEF said they wouldn't surrender Earth without a fight?  If all the 14th's ships were concentrated at Earth, wouldn't the UEF fleets 'surround' them?

[Scotty]

They can't afford to not surrender in that instance.  If the GTVA glasses even one major city on Earth it's tens of millions dead.  It takes time to surround someone.  It takes even longer to render them combat ineffective, and five or ten or fifty cities would be a smoking, glassed ruin by then.

It's a bluff that the UEF cannot call without critically failing in every phase.

[Phantom Hoover]

I feel like, based on the Blitz, the Tevs are probably perfectly capable of devastating Earth even in the present strategic environment.

[Scotty]

They are.  But in the immediate sense in a hypothetical Earth encirclement before the real commencement of hostilities, they have both the tactical presence to accomplish it and a total lack of political pressure to avoid doing it.

[AdmiralRalwood]

I feel like, based on the Blitz, the Tevs are probably perfectly capable of devastating Earth even in the present strategic environment.

Given the timeframe CASSANDRA estimates for Steele's attack at the end of Act 3, they Tevs are not only capable of an attack on Earth, but are right about to engage in one.

[Celendil]

I feel like, based on the Blitz, the Tevs are probably perfectly capable of devastating Earth even in the present strategic environment.

Yes, but the geopolitical situation didn't allow that to happen up until the War Dogs attack on the Carthage gave Steele tactical command freedoms that he never had before. The successful attack on the Carthage in Act 3 probably only gave him more power to conduct the war his way, and what that's really going to mean for the UEF I suspect we'll have to wait for Act 4 to find out.

[leoben]

Are you guys sure the Tev's plans to attack Earth includes glassing cities? I feel like that's something they're not willing to do. By the logic that they're perfectly capable to show up in force around Earth's orbit and and start bombing the **** out of the cities, something's holding them back. Either it's that they're not willing to kill civilians en mass on Earth, or they know something's waiting for them at Earth that is a 'significant hurdle' in forcing the UEF to surrender.

I seriously doubt they Tevs are willing to exterminate a significant portion of Earth's population for the sake of victory. They'd have attacked already if that wasn't a showstopper for them.

I'm sure Steele has a plan to achieve victory without glassing major cities.

BTW does anyone have any data on what the GTA's civilian population is right now?

[niffiwan]

I believe the plan was to threaten to glass cities, not glass them as a 1st step. It's more murky what would have happened if the UEF didn't surrender at that point.

[DanielBeaver]

Are you guys sure the Tev's plans to attack Earth includes glassing cities? I feel like that's something they're not willing to do.
...
BTW does anyone have any data on what the GTA's civilian population is right now?

I seem to recall that the HoL representative in the Nagari dream said that there was political unrest in the GTVA as a result of the war. I've always interpreted the Tev approach as actually being "mercy through quick victory". That is, smash the UEF military as swiftly and brutally as possible, so that they can establish control in the system without resorting to large scale atrocities. Doing crap like nuking cities and killing tens of millions of civilians would probably be wildly unpopular with the GTA public - after all, a big motivation for re-opening the portal to Sol was to be an emotional re-uniting with the people of Earth.