what would the chances for seeing something like COD:Infinite Warfare from ef*ing EA have been without SCs crowdfunding campaign success? Zero? Nada? Zilch? Not even when hell freezes over?
Still pretty slim. Crowdfunding success does not translate into "this franchise/genre/what-have-you is fiscally viable" to anyone in the industry anymore.
A good example for that you can see in cRPG genre:
-
Wasteland 2 was a modest success for inXile, with critical acclaim and lot of buzz from the hardcore fans (esspecially those who have been screaming "not my Fallout" at Bethesda). Financially it was successfull enough beyond the Kickstarter that inXile is gearing up for
Wasteland 3 while still developing
Torment: Tides of Numenera.
-
Divinity: Original Sin was breakout critical success for Larian, who have been producing rather mid-tier fare in the past (and I am a fan of the Divnity-Series). It's financial success was enough to launch development of a sequel which is already in the pre-order cycle.
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Pillars of Eternity showed that Osidian still has it and was a success on both fronts. They are also going ahead with new IP in same genre with
Tyranny soon.
However does any major company touch this genre with ten foot pole? - Nope, the closest we get are
Witcher 3 (which is excellent on its own right, but also an outlier considering how much CD Project was staked on the Witcher-franchise since the inception of the company) and
Dragon Age (which seems to be headed in the opposite direction as far as the gameplay genre is concerend). We might see some movement considering EA chained Bioware to some nebulous project so they can get certain people back for
Mass Effect: Andromeda.
There are lot of contributing factor in the mix why this is so: From the apprication of nostalgia, to the proliferation of the MMORPG, to need to get as broad a customer base as possible upon, to the weight of past entires.
A single games success makes some ears stand up in attention but nothing more. Esspecially considering how much voodo-consumer forecasting is going on (e.g. EA realizing that that Mass Effect has only 30 precent brand-recognition among the group of "Sci-Fi fans" their market research company dug up).
Meanwhile EA published Titanfall, maybe the best multiplayer science fiction arena shooter ever
I see that Battuta enjoys
that in-industry pissing contest ...