Hard Light Productions Forums
Off-Topic Discussion => General Discussion => Topic started by: est1895 on August 14, 2012, 12:29:23 pm
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Mediators are calling it a serious problem in Germany. Will there be a fourth Reich?
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No.
Also, you have exactly one post to give some sources for your ****ing bull****. As an actual German living in actual Germany, I am highly doubtful of your premise here. Failure to provide sources will result in extended mockery.
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Mediators are calling it a serious problem in Germany. Will there be a fourth Reich?
Hey can we get a citation or a link or some reasoning or anything that makes a good OP?
Thanks in advance.
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https://www.google.com/search?q=neo+nazi+germany&sugexp=chrome,mod=5&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#q=neo+nazi+germany&hl=en&prmd=imvnsu&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ei=tY8qUKaVDerw0gHl3YDIBw&ved=0CFcQ_AUoBA&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_cp.r_qf.&fp=2f6e4ee0255d6a70&biw=1280&bih=699
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Noooooo, don't do his work for him.
Besides, I can claim with the same level of veracity that the US is headed toward being a hard-line objectivist christian theocracy.
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Noooooo, don't do his work for him.
Besides, I can claim with the same level of veracity that the US is headed toward being a hard-line objectivist christian theocracy.
To be fair, I would agree and call groups like WBC a problem. Nothing really substantial beyond that of any shock-group, but still a problem. I don't know all that much about neo-nazism in Germany, though. Also I think it's interesting that the brunt of est1895's posts are about Germany yet all of them are either questions that could be answered in a simple google search or completely unsubstantiated claims. (or both, I guess)
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No.
Also, you have exactly one post to give some sources for your ****ing bull****. As an actual German living in actual Germany, I am highly doubtful of your premise here. Failure to provide sources will result in extended mockery.
Hey, c'mon, Call of duty needs that world war 3.
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The facts are this:
1. Ever since the ****ing world war, we've had some neo-nazi idiots running around.
2. Ever since the wall came down, we've had a problem with the disenfranchised youth in East Germany, due to East Germany being an economic backwater when compared to West Germany. This has been slowly changing, but we're now 23 years into being a reunited state, and the damage done by the rushed reunification process is still there.
3. Unlike West Germany, the East never really tried to educate young people on the horrors of Nazi Germany. As per the communist playbook, they declared nazism dead ex officio and left it there.
4. Disenfranchised youth + lack of economic opportunities (jobs, for example) = anger. Here expressed by forming hate groups.
5. Last year, one of the most mysterious crime series in german history was solved. To everyone's surprise, it was perpetrated by a trio of right-wing terrorists who were claiming to be the front of some nazi-themed underground organisation.
6. This sorry state of affairs was only possible due to very high-level idiocy at the Verfassungsschutz (Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, a domestic intelligence agency tasked with intelligence-gathering on threats concerning the democratic order, the existence and security of the federation or one of its states, and the peaceful coexistence of peoples), who at several points would have been able to solve this thing.
7. As a result, the news media have been taking a closer look at neo-nazi activities, thus creating the illusion of there being a rise in said activities.
Germany now is as likely to become the "fourth Reich" as it was immediately following WW2. Even less so, given that there are no internal pressure groups trying to steer us that way. Unlike the US, Germany's political discourse tends towards reaching a consensus between the big political factions; the amount of mud-slinging we get around here is pretty low-key compared to what we see when looking at the US.
Hey, c'mon, Call of duty needs that world war 3.
I thought that the middle east was booked as the opposition there?
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I thought that the middle east was booked as the opposition there?
You see, that was only the inital step into making the ultimate COD villain, a russian neo-nazi ex-black ops mercenary of middle eastern descent, the only piece left now is the neo nazi part.
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I thought that the middle east was booked as the opposition there?
You see, that was only the inital step into making the ultimate COD villain, a russian neo-nazi ex-black ops mercenary of middle eastern descent, the only piece left now is the neo nazi part.
Price has been skirting Ultimate CoD badguy territory for long enough, lest face it he fire a nuke off his own back, how badguy do you want to get?
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I thought that the middle east was booked as the opposition there?
You see, that was only the inital step into making the ultimate COD villain, a russian neo-nazi ex-black ops mercenary of middle eastern descent, the only piece left now is the neo nazi part.
Isn't that the villain from Soldier of Fortune?
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I do remember seeing a BBC newscast on this issue a few weeks back. It focused on things like whole blocks in some city of another being filled completely with white supremacists, and the same thing happening to some backwater town. But tbh, I don't find it that alarming. Troubling that there are still people who find being a Nazi appealing, but not alarmed. The 'BNP' and 'National Front' are more likely to become a major problem in my opinion, as let's face it, if any of them did get big and become a potential risk everyone would put their **** to one side to curb stomp the **** out of them. Again....And again...And one last time for
luck GREAT JUSTICE.
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Germany now is as likely to become the "fourth Reich" as it was immediately following WW2. Even less so, given that there are no internal pressure groups trying to steer us that way. Unlike the US, Germany's political discourse tends towards reaching a consensus between the big political factions; the amount of mud-slinging we get around here is pretty low-key compared to what we see when looking at the US.
Why all the random US mudslinging? You're the only one who has mentioned the country in the thread so far.
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Why all the random US mudslinging? You're the only one who has mentioned the country in the thread so far.
It's probably true. I honestly don't pay any (nonzero) amount of attention at all to German politics so I'll just take The E's word for it but you've got to have your head buried pretty deep in the sand to not see mudslinging in US politics at the federal level. Mostly it centers against whoever is the president, but there's still a decent amount against congress, though that may just because of the comparatively small pool of constituents.
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Well, my take on Germany is that currently there isn't that much that sort of activity. But with the EU wide economic downturn, there will be higher tensions. I don't know how that will affect the political discourse, but I'm pretty sure that there will be some radicalization happening inevitably if things turn out for the worse. Getting a facist regime back in power in Germany would require something like a massive recession, unemployment and hyperinflation. If it goes to right wing activity, I would be more worried about Hungary at the moment - but the truth is, I haven't been there myself to say for sure. Greece and Spain are also going to face some amount of radicalization no matter what now.
But currently in Germany, NO. The thing with German radical opinions is that they are hidden, nobody is going to say anything that sort in public, but at home it might be different. It is still another thing whether the said person actually means it or if it is just his way to went his frustration on something.
This is coming from a person who has been traveling enough to Germany (work trips) during last five years.
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Exactly. Neo-Nazizm, and extremism in general, is on the rise everywhere. Maybe Neo-Nazis get more publicity in Germany because they're controversial and certain to attract a lot of attention. Media always look for shocking and controversial things to make fuss about, as I mentioned some time ago in another thread. While in Greece or Hungary Neo-Nazis might be a real problem, in Germany they're only as problematic as WBC in US. Bunch of jerks and loons whom nobody reasonable listens to and who insult a lot of different people, making themselves seem much more important to media by jelling controversial things really, really loud.
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Well, my take on Germany is that currently there isn't that much that sort of activity. But with the EU wide economic downturn, there will be higher tensions. I don't know how that will affect the political discourse, but I'm pretty sure that there will be some radicalization happening inevitably if things turn out for the worse. Getting a facist regime back in power in Germany would require something like a massive recession, unemployment and hyperinflation. If it goes to right wing activity, I would be more worried about Hungary at the moment - but the truth is, I haven't been there myself to say for sure. Greece and Spain are also going to face some amount of radicalization no matter what now.
But currently in Germany, NO. The thing with German radical opinions is that they are hidden, nobody is going to say anything that sort in public, but at home it might be different. It is still another thing whether the said person actually means it or if it is just his way to went his frustration on something.
This is coming from a person who has been traveling enough to Germany (work trips) during last five years.
Actually it's "NO Period".
What kinda reasoning is this "hidden" crap? "They" (TM) aren't saying it in public so "they" (TM) must be saying it in private because you just know "they" (TM) do?
Lemme call bull**** right there.
This is coming from a person actually living there for the last 30 years. Fact is that nowadays you will propably have a hard time finding a country where Neo Nazism is LESS of a problem than in Germany.
Simply because most Germans are aware of history.
In general: Calling a German a Nazi nowadays is pretty much on the same level as calling random Americans "genicidal Indian slaughterers".
I.e.: At best... you are professing your own ignorance/idiocy.
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Talking of ignorance, one of my friend's family was celebrating Diwali last year and got the word "Scum" carved into their car. Apparently people still aren't being educated to the fact that the swastika was (and still is) a symbol of peace well before Hitler got his Darth Vader battling mitts on it.
Almost completely unrelated, but this topic just brought it to mind. Also we're in GD, I'm pretty sure that it's written in the Geneva Convention that topics have to be derailed at some point here.
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Actually it's "NO Period".
What kinda reasoning is this "hidden" crap? "They" (TM) aren't saying it in public so "they" (TM) must be saying it in private because you just know "they" (TM) do?
Lemme call bull**** right there.
This is coming from a person actually living there for the last 30 years. Fact is that nowadays you will propably have a hard time finding a country where Neo Nazism is LESS of a problem than in Germany.
Simply because most Germans are aware of history.
I base my opinion on some Germans that moved here, and my brother living in Germany. Sometimes people from outside see things differently. So talk about immigrants like Turkish or Persian is definitely not said in public, but at home. Persians and Turkish then comment about the racistic attitudes of the general population against them - which occasionally takes hilarious shapes. I.e. a Turkish person owning a car shop cannot actually be seen in the shop, and has to hire German salesmen as customers would not otherwise buy. A bald Finnish lumberjack went to buy food from Turkish fast food restaurant, and that restaurant paid HIM money - they mistook him for Neo-Nazis that had been pestering the shop. And I'm still to spot a gypsy in German cities. What it comes to violence and wanton destruction of property, you have your share of football hooligans there.
All this is just saying that the seeds of racism and facism lie in everybody, no education will change it. Those seeds have not disappeared anywhere, and will not at any point soon. They will manifest themselves even in the Germans despite the much touted history - I suspect that this could change frighteningly quickly despite all the knowledge of the people. What it just needs is some outside pressure and disturbance from the norm. Understanding that there has been evolutionary advantages to racism is the key of understanding its occurence - this is the depth of the problem. Also know that Germany too is heading for economical trouble, which WILL radicalize people and provide the grounds for the above. For some reason I also think that since a lot of Germans are saying they have learned from WWII history, I already suspect this is already similar to the herd-thinking that happened before WWII. It is hard for me to believe that humans would learn from the history - my personal opinion is that this sort of learning happens only from what they have experienced personally.
I actually expect a swing towards extreme right and left (mostly towards right for certain reasons) in the political climate throughout the Europe, but let's see how that pans out.
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What I really want to know... is why est1895 seems to have this obsession with Nazism, yet is strangely incapable of doing any research on his own...
Note for the Dekkerling: the National Socialist Party swastika goes the wrong direction - ironically, their motives also quite contradictory to peace as well. :p
Lastly, about radicals - they only make significant headway in politics in dire situations and when information can be controlled to their advantage. I don't think you're going to see the level of extremism in the western world as seen in the 1930's and '40 any time soon.
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Hey, c'mon, Call of duty needs that world war 3.
lol
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I like how the thread continued without est1895. Maybe that's his master plan: Get HLP Godwin'd.
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Neo-nazi's did 9-11
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Neo-nazi's did 9-11
... yeah and Bush is really a German... :cough: cough: :P
Hey... get the media to repeat it and some idiots will believe it even after they see a birth certificate.
LOL
Ironically Hitler wasn t even German as such, he was born in Austria... I can see a lot of Americans going "NO WAY" now when they read this ;)
Although, to be fair, one has to say that Austria since then improved the quality of its exported politicians :)
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Although, to be fair, one has to say that Austria since then improved the quality of its exported politicians :)
Did it also improve the quality of its painters?
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Although, to be fair, one has to say that Austria since then improved the quality of its exported politicians :)
Did it also improve the quality of its painters?
Not sure... and the quality of its movie actors is questionable as well.
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Not sure... and the quality of its movie actors is questionable as well.
Will still consider it a danger then. :p
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Ironically Hitler wasn t even German as such, he was born in Austria... I can see a lot of Americans going "NO WAY" now when they read this ;)
Please don't tell, because we Germans claim to be Austrians if somebody doesn't like us. ;)
o.k, as The E mentioned it before there was a bust of a Neo-Nazi Terrorgroup:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Socialist_Underground
Unlike other Terrorist who can't even smash a window without sending a three paged manifesto afterwards to the media they never made the killings public.
So for more than six years the German media speculated about a mysterious serial killer that kills immigrants.
The victims were mostly owners of small shops (like fast food shacks or groceries), and all of them were killed with the same pistol, the most common theory was that it is connected to organized crime like drug trafficking or racketing.
The media called it "The Döner Killer" - not only the tabloids, even the big German newspapers used this label.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosphorus_serial_murders
So, that's up otherwise ?
Actual a Athlete from the German Rowing Team of the Women was send back early from London because... their boyfriend is a member of the NPD.
The NPD hasn't declared an illegal party yet, and the Athlete does not support her boyfriends political stance but hey, they send her back anyway, just to be sure.
Neo Nazi activity in Germany is mainly propaganda by the NPD.
They organize marches, for example on the first of may, or against child molesters, or to remind the destruction of a German town by allied bombers during the second world war.
Typical they are able to gather 100 - 500 - 1000 Neo Nazis for the march, at least the double amount of counter protesters from the left and 200 or more Policemen to keep both sides separated.
Traditionally the left counter protesters will try to block the march, the policemen try to remove the blockade, some idiot is starting throwing rocks and both sides are enjoying a nice melee while the neo nazis change the route of the march.
Afterwards any side - except the cops - is happy because they reached their goal.
Neo Nazis aren't very popular in Germany, the main opinion is that they are losers.
Under educated, dumb and asocial losers.
Well, the thing is that this opinion is more a way to re secure the own political stance:
"A person like me, that is well educated, intelligent and successful can't be a Neo Nazi, right ?"
In fact not all Neo Nazis are dumb, under educated or asocial.
Some of their leading theorists are lawyers, doctors or other academics.
Some of them are intelligent, and able to discuss without making a bad figure.
And in some parts of Eastern Germany they are very social, organizing youth clubs or acting as trainer in sport associations.
And the thing is that even while most of the Germans don't like Neo Nazis, national socialistic opinions aren't uncommon.
The theory about the Jews control everything ?
Most Germans will agree that's anti-Semitic bull****.
But tell them that 1% of the population controls everything to the disadvantage of the remaining 99 % ?
... many will agree. But to be fair, that's not only a problem in Germany ;)
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Not sure... and the quality of its movie actors is questionable as well.
There's nothing questionable about Arnold at all. He's clearly terrible. (But a hell of a lot of fun.)
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Ironically Hitler wasn t even German as such, he was born in Austria... I can see a lot of Americans going "NO WAY" now when they read this ;)
I'm pretty sure this is common knowledge as far as history goes, though I will admit that this and the start of WWI is about the extent to which US History courses talk about Austria in [Michigan's] secondary schools. Which is weird because we all know that Austria-Hungary didn't drop off the face of the Earth as soon as Germany went to war in 1914, but you can't tell from the required curriculum. If only I had taken extra history instead of all that damn math and literature... :p
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I say it's time we did something about all this hate in the world.
JOIN ME, COMRADES! Together, from our tropical sea-base, we shall destroy the world's need for borders! We will build bipedal tanks! We will research instant curry! We'll all wear ski masks and eyepatches!
Together we shall be... BAHRAM
(http://static.cdn.ea.com/battlelog/prod/emblems/320/535/2832655391325703535.jpeg?v=1329194010.19)
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Can't we be called something cooler like SPECTRE? That way when the British send the inevitable secret agent to stop our Legions of Terror you can give him a fine meal as part of your standard villain duties.
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According to the Evil Overlord List (http://www.eviloverlord.com/lists/overlord.html), all goodly heroes are to be immediately shot. No last requests. No final meal. I'm not ending up like Dr No, or Gold Member.
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According to the Evil Overlord List (http://www.eviloverlord.com/lists/overlord.html), all goodly heroes are to be immediately shot. No last requests. No final meal. I'm not ending up like Dr No, or Gold Member.
Then the forces of justice will get suspicious on why their agents are not returning, and start sending armed, trigger-happy soldiers to your still-under-construction base instead of mere infiltrators.
Push comes to shove, you get a James Bond or Jackie Chan clone sent to your base.
...Besides, it's fun using the shooting range, mess hall mixer, or the laboratory centrifuge as an improvised interrogation device. Evil overlords that rely on giant lasers and shark tanks have no imagination.
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According to the Evil Overlord List (http://www.eviloverlord.com/lists/overlord.html), all goodly heroes are to be immediately shot. No last requests. No final meal. I'm not ending up like Dr No, or Gold Member.
Actually, I'm afraid the dinner is a union thing. Just like saying "Nice of you to drop in" after dropping somebody through a trapdoor. Evil Overlord List is nice, but gotta complain with union rules. :)
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I'm pretty sure that the impolite, rude, and openly brutal villains also attract a lot more negative attention than the affably evil ones. A fine meal and a job offer can go a long ways towards preventing conflicts with enemy agents.
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That, and they don't get union benefits. :) Discounts on underground lairs, easier certification of superweapons, more options for negotiating with International Union of Henchpeople, and a priority when hiring corrupt lawyers, among other things.
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My dark kingdom will be without unions, for they will not be needed. As long as all my henchmen have the ability to hit a child-sized object at ten paces, then there shall be tea and crumpets for all!
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How can it be dark without unions and their incomprehensible, ever changing rules in exchange for useless benefits? Also, if there aren't any unions, how can there be strikes depriving the population of vital services for an unspecified amount of time and ultimately suppressed by military? Labor Unions. You can't live with them, you can't live without them. :)
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How can it be dark without unions and their incomprehensible, ever changing rules in exchange for useless benefits?
I'll turn off the sun.
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Indeed, the first line of defense for any evil organization should be to avoid attracting attention in the first place. As much as possible, keep prying eyes away from your evil base, and if they do manage to snoop around, make sure they return back to base with no solid proof of any wrongdoing. The forces of justice will find it difficult to justify sending more agents if their agents always return home unharmed and empty-handed.
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Hmm, I'm not quite comfortable talking about what I plan to do once I become a fully fledged Evil Overlord, in a thread that began about Neo-Nazis. A fresh start may be in order. All in favour?
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Interesting development from Germany:
http://news.yahoo.com/german-troops-deployed-home-soil-court-rules-234106824.html
I suspect that this is aimed towards violent right wing protests that are most likely going to take place a couple of years in the future.
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I suspect that ...
:rolleyes & groan:
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Interesting development from Germany:
http://news.yahoo.com/german-troops-deployed-home-soil-court-rules-234106824.html
I suspect that this is aimed towards violent right wing protests that are most likely going to take place a couple of years in the future.
I suspect you have no idea what you are talking about. The ruling in question is highly, highly questionable. Also, it specifically forbids the use of the Bundeswehr against protesters and demonstrations, so yeah. None of that.
The only thing (and this is where the questionable part comes in) where the Bundeswehr is allowed to be deployed is in the case of "a catastrophe, or imminent catastrophic danger"; Basically only when the Police is absolutely incapable of reacting appropriately.
Oh, and please share your crystal ball with the rest of us. I wonder how you can be so sure that there will be violent protests in the future that escalate so much that regular police can't handle them.
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:outb4****storm:
:warp:
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Interesting development from Germany:
http://news.yahoo.com/german-troops-deployed-home-soil-court-rules-234106824.html
I suspect that this is aimed towards violent right wing protests that are most likely going to take place a couple of years in the future.
I suspect you have no idea what you are talking about. The ruling in question is highly, highly questionable. Also, it specifically forbids the use of the Bundeswehr against protesters and demonstrations, so yeah. None of that.
The only thing (and this is where the questionable part comes in) where the Bundeswehr is allowed to be deployed is in the case of "a catastrophe, or imminent catastrophic danger"; Basically only when the Police is absolutely incapable of reacting appropriately.
Oh, and please share your crystal ball with the rest of us. I wonder how you can be so sure that there will be violent protests in the future that escalate so much that regular police can't handle them.
Food riots? Social unrest in debt-laden countries? A guy in Italy just lit himself on fire in front of the parliament building. You have to admit, the possibility of widespread protests isn't exactly lessening as time goes on.
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And how is any of that something which can't be controlled by the police?
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Did I say it was or wasn't? No, all I simply said was "the possibility of widespread protests isn't exactly lessening as time goes on".
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No, it's not.
It's not increasing either, however.
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I would disagree with that. Rising food prices, continuously stubborn unemployment, and a worsening debt crises in many member states of the EU, and other general trends around the world indicate an incrementally increasing risk for civil unrest. Unpopular civic measures such as the Trapwire network in the US and the continuing expose' on the world's richest also favor a trend towards a more fragile world-state.
That being said, in other areas the opposite is true. In Washington DC, increasing economic gains and stability may indeed mean that area of the world, along with other nations such as possibly Germany, where exports are high and quality of living is quite good, mean that in those areas have a lessening risk of civic unrest in the coming years, while places like Italy, Spain, and some areas of the United States, such as Oakland, CA, show an opposite trend.
However rising pan-European sentiments of anti-immigrants and an increasing focus on the far right's revival may indicate to the powers in charge that they should be prepared for trouble in the future. From what I've heard in almost every arena, Germany is pretty much the only state in the EU that seems to be weathering the economic storm with any degree of success these days, and I've gathered that it's one of the primary forces that's keeping the Euro together - so at the moment it seems like it's in the eye of the storm. However looking outside of Germany, I can see a breakup of the Euro possibly igniting unrest in other countries that may spill over into Germany, thus giving powers cause for concern.
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And how does any of that doom and gloom lead to civil unrest on a scale that would necessitate the use of the armed forces? Please remember, the mandate handed out by the court explicitly forbids the use of the military to police protests, and only makes an exception for "catastrophic occurences" a term undefined in this context. The one thing you are ignoring (possibly because you don't know), is that this ruling by the constitutional court is highly controversial for that very reason, and as such not very likely to ever be acted upon, unless the court can clarify its stance.
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I'm not sure if this is what the bill's passage implies, but did Germany previously not have any mechanism whereby military troops could be deployed inside the country in cases such as a large natural disaster? In the US, the National Guard (essentially a military reserve force and officially-organized militia under the authority of a state's governor) is frequently mobilized in the aftermath of events like hurricanes and wildfires; however, the domestic deployment of federal troops by the President is severely limited. Interestingly enough, a law passed under Bush eased those restrictions, but its provisions were struck down a year or two later.
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Yes, the Bundeswehr has been supplementing local efforts for disaster recovery for years. That part of its job has never been under discussion, and has never been criticized.
This ruling (it is NOT a bill, it's a ruling by Germany's equivalent of the supreme court) would allow the use of the Bundeswehr in their role as an armed response force to some sort of undefined situation where the police would not be able to handle it.
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Food riots? Social unrest in debt-laden countries? A guy in Italy just lit himself on fire in front of the parliament building. You have to admit, the possibility of widespread protests isn't exactly lessening as time goes on.
What does Italy have to do with Germany? And why single out Europe in that regard at all? The "possibility for those future problems" is not any less in the US or anywhere else.
Keywords being "possibility" and "future".
The biggest possibility in regards to this thread however is that of people with no facts whatsoever pulling paranoid idiocies out of their own a**.
Appears to work especially well with foreign countries... as they know even less about those.
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Agreed. Italy is on the brink of bankrupcy and in a much worse situation than Germany, which is doing quite well compared to the rest of the Eurozone. I guess that in a few years, people might start considering going back to Fascism in Italy, but I don't foresee such thing happening in Germany anytime soon. Eurozone would collapse long before Germany is even close to the state Italy or Spain is in.
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I guess that in a few years, people might start considering going back to Fascism in Italy, but I don't foresee such thing happening in Germany anytime soon.
Wait, what? Yes, the situation isn't good, by a long shot. But Fascism? As if the "Years of Lead" had taught us nothing. Trust me, there's enough political will left in the nation to prevent that from ever happening again.
p.s.: and I'd say "brink of bankrupcy" is a bit too much... but I'm digressing.
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Hmmm, what should I do with you? There is a reason why I used the word "suspect" - to imply that this is speculation, which most of the people got. However, if I say it is speculation, it does not mean there is no grounds for it. Unfortunately I did not have time to talk about this with German colleagues today to hear what they think about it, but yes, the ruling is very questionable.
Why do I find the ruling questionable? There is no good definition on the cases which would invoke military response. Furthermore, this allows combat weapons to be used, which is more than weird for me at least. The only way I can think of this would be necessary is a large scale uncontrolled riot or uprising. In other emergencies, military usually doesn't even need firearms - but then why add such a ruling? No need for a such thing can be seen at the moment, but from what I have heard is that German general opinion is starting to question the euro itself.
What I think will cause nationalism to raise up? It is the looming break up of euro, that has probably became inevitable now. I think Germans don't know how much trouble they are going to get from the collapse of the euro, as lots of German banks have loaned with very high risks to South European countries - countries that cannot pay back, and which also bought German stuff. At the moment the German commerce works well, but this is mainly because the surrounding countries have bought German stuff - and now that is in decline. Germany too has a relatively high level of debt to pay on top of that. Further, it is within the interests of Southern Europeans to transfer lots of their national debt to ECB, and to the further European Stability Fund (I don't know the exact name in English). This is what they are mostly going to do, and I understand it. I would try to do it too, if I were in charge there. The other possibility to solve this mess is to devaluate the euro . Third solution is the break up of eurozone.
Now, the more stable European countries then do not want to participate in paying those loans. That is not strange either, given the circumstances. I don't think this will work in the long run, one solution has been given, the unionization process, but the problem is, it is just more agreements and deals, but who anymore trusts those agreements? That seems to be the first thing that gets rolled over. This is basically the same as that those who are doing well (for now) cough up the cash for the debt and trust the process to correct itself which hasn't worked so far. The same Southern Europeans will say that it is Germany who has benefited most from the euro (no surprise, since the German economy happens to be the closest to the ideal euro economy). The actual numbers show 10 % decrease in living standard and wages in Germany, but it doesn't matter since the absolute values of those wages are still higher. The industry in other Southern European countries has suffered greatly, but it is not clear to me at the moment whether this is a side effect of euro, or just stupid political decisions. In Finland's case, it is mostly the latter. The unionization process will face fierce opposition from Southern Europe (they will agree on ESF bailing them out, but will oppose anything that would change their ability to control their countries), and would actually shift the governments there towards right - the way to defend themselves against EU is the rise of nationalism.
How about a partial break up of eurozone? This has been discussed quite heavily here, but the problem is that Southern European countries are very much intertwined with their loans. Breaking one country from the euro zone would immediately render several tens of billion of deficits in others. For whatever reason, the bailout packages to Greece do not show any difference in the national debt, and this is the same for all indebted euro countries. It would be crazy to expect otherwise from further packages. If the whole Southern Europe is broken up from the euro zone, German banks are going to need funding next, and that cannot be done any more as most of the extra money has been spent in the bailout packages. Not an option, I think.
How about the devaluation of euro, and taking a larger inflation target? This is the former economy in the earlier Southern European countries, and is mainly driven by selfishness. The fundamental reason for this sort of structure of economy is that everybody wants more, and then gets a raise. In order to keep all things equal, that means that the value of the currency will be decreased. This is the easiest way to do it, though very painful for everybody who has saved cash. The devaluation of euro would immediately affect the bank accounts of Germans. The Germans are very much opposed on this action, but then again, they are against spending money in the course of ECB to South too.
Two last possibilities are complete break up of euro zone, or Germany breaking up from eurozone. Both mean that all affected banks will suffer, and there would no doubt be restructuring of the government debts to become realistic in payable terms, or just cancellations of the debt. If Germany does this alone, that means they will lose some amount of those loans (I think some amount of that bailout packages have gone directly to banks, not only in Germany), but more alarmingly, their new currency value would increase - at first at least. This is BAD news, as the surrounding countries would not be able to afford in German products, and Germany relies on exports to Europe, and they would find it even harder to sell stuff to China.
So, what does this have to do with riots? Well, Germany is going to lose money no matter what at this point - this is already a reason for civil unrest, if it happens in a large enough scale and especially if it is shown that German banks have seriously ****ed up their loaning strategies. The rest of it depends on what kind of route will be taken - if it is devaluation, then the lowest wage workers can barely afford living in Germany which will lead to social unrest - plus that you also anger the people who have wealth and power. If it is a new currency, this is already a step towards nationalism. Since the ruling parties in Germany are still weighing towards euro, at least some amount of steps towards right is needed. But I'm afraid it is would not be as simple as that. Since German currency would be valued very high, it would stop the exports from Germany, which will lead towards social unrest. I don't know if it will extend to rioting, but this ruling seems to be a reservation for that.
So, in short I see the court ruling as a precaution for things to come. Any further questions? I see that today, UK and German papers are speculating on Finnish departure from euro. That speculation has started in Finnish magazines too, and some of the companies have already traded the currency used in the deals to dollars. Our EU-minister is repeating similar sort of phrases that were heard in the home made recession in the 1990s, "We will not devalue!" vs. "Finland is fully committed to euro!" The situation in the whole EU level is relatively similar to ours in the 1990, the most reasonable way would be to devalue the euro, or break up some countries and allow them to have their own currencies. Seemingly since this has not happened, German banks have too much invested there, the other possibility is the German reluctance on devaluation. Unless, of course, somebody figures out a way how Germany could get out of this without losing money, but I don't think that will be possible.
The fundamental reason for the crisis is banking and politics. Banking sector for giving out loans with ridiculous risks, and politics for not keeping the legalization and control up to date. Banking crisis is the worst, as it will affect everyone - Iceland managed to pull this one of, but not without a hint of nationalism. The latest banking crisis went past here without rioting (though this would have been justified and should have happened in my opinion), but the guys down there in the South seem to have more temperament... The Chinese have a curse that goes "May you live in interesting times!" - Now I know understand what that means.
EDIT: Oh and I forgot to add, what is actually the difference between a riot and a demonstration? And what is the difference between them in a tight spot?
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@ The E: You're right, I didn't know that; the "catastrophic occurrences" is the sort of open-door statute that we in the US have become unfortunately accustomed to; and I'm not saying anything about the intent here, but we in the US are also unfortunately accustomed to those statutes being abused once put in place.
What does Italy have to do with Germany? And why single out Europe in that regard at all? The "possibility for those future problems" is not any less in the US or anywhere else.
Keywords being "possibility" and "future".
The biggest possibility in regards to this thread however is that of people with no facts whatsoever pulling paranoid idiocies out of their own a**.
Appears to work especially well with foreign countries... as they know even less about those.
I'm not sure if you read my post or not, but if you didn't;
"I would disagree with that. Rising food prices, continuously stubborn unemployment, and a worsening debt crises in many member states of the EU, and other general trends around the world indicate an incrementally increasing risk for civil unrest. Unpopular civic measures such as the Trapwire network in the US and the continuing expose' on the world's richest also favor a trend towards a more fragile world-state."
and;
"mean that in those areas have a lessening risk of civic unrest in the coming years, while places like Italy, Spain, and some areas of the United States, such as Oakland, CA, show an opposite trend."
So as you can see I was not singling out Europe alone. As for what Italy has to do with Germany, I guess it's the same sort of question as "what does Texas have to do with New York?" They're both part of an interconnected economic framework that rely upon each other, and both have many citizens and relatives that live/travel between the two countries/states. So what goes on in Italy will surely affect Germany in the future, as is already happening.
Yes, keywords being possibility and future. I don't think I said anything to the contrary.
Next time, please just check your defensiveness at the door and try to understand what someone's trying to say, rather than immediately taking two steps to trying to prove them wrong and/or stupid.
CmdKevin; for everyone's sake, I hope you're right. But wasn't there a big hubbub just recently about neo-nazis winning some big election in Greece? I don't really know enough about that situation to comment, but if Italy gets as bad as Greece, who knows. I know the hardliners are trying to tear back ground in the US.
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I guess that in a few years, people might start considering going back to Fascism in Italy, but I don't foresee such thing happening in Germany anytime soon.
Wait, what? Yes, the situation isn't good, by a long shot. But Fascism? As if the "Years of Lead" had taught us nothing. Trust me, there's enough political will left in the nation to prevent that from ever happening again.
p.s.: and I'd say "brink of bankrupcy" is a bit too much... but I'm digressing.
This is one of the few places where I really hope I'll be wrong. But going by the economic prognoses I've seen, Italy is seems to be going the same way as Greece, and UT mentioned what already starts happening in Greece. On one hand, Italy has already had an experience with Fascism, but when facing a crisis, people tend to forget their history lessons. Let's hope this whole economic crisis gets better before things really go south.
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It isn't actually that long ago when Greece still had a little bit different government organization; Greece was a dictatorship in 1970s. It is that quickly how things change.
However, I don't blame the people in Southern European countries for this one. Well, they are of course responsible for the voting behavior, but how does that go then when the parties promised something and never actually delivered? The issue here is that monetary systems within the societies differed quite a bit around the eurozone, and nobody, it appears, controlled the loaning at all. This allowed Southern Europe to borrow with the same interest rate as Germany (I believe that the interest rate in Northern Europe would also be slightly higher). Of course, nobody forces anyone to take loans, and especially stupid loans, but still, some amount of responsibility falls on the bankers, and on the organization that should keep them under control.
After I'm done with my mortgage, I'll never take any loans again.
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Here in Poland we have a saying: "Dobry zwyczaj, nie pożyczaj" (It's a good habit not to take loans). Another good habit is not spending more than you actually have. Sounds like Captain Obvious to any logically thinking human, but most governments don't seem to be aware of those simple rules. As evidenced by Greece (and really, most other countries too) doing both of these things. Some time ago, Romney praised Poland of all nations for being smarter with their money than the rest of the Europe, citing adherence to the latter rule as a reason. I wonder what this world is coming to (it isn't anything good, that's for sure).
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I'm still pretty sure that if everyone in HLP chips in, we could get our offshore base up and running. From there we can bring unity to the world, and prepare for the Shivan incursion, the Cryvans and the Arachnid attack (we already know they have 'Brain bugs' so it'll be a peice of piss to stomp them out).
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or we could just nuke everything
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Ha, ha, didn't see that response coming from you Nuke.
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i know, its getting old. but its still expected from me.
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Nuke, I've had you figured out for a long time:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZ4-obTw0VY
:wakka:
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I'm still pretty sure that if everyone in HLP chips in, we could get our offshore base up and running. From there we can bring unity to the world, and prepare for the Shivan incursion, the Cryvans and the Arachnid attack (we already know they have 'Brain bugs' so it'll be a peice of piss to stomp them out).
We already have a solution to a Cyrvan invasion: Dekker. Any female leader of theirs will be unable to resist his seductive personality, and any male leader will be easily convinced to head to the nearest pub for a few pints.
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Nuke, I've had you figured out for a long time:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZ4-obTw0VY
:wakka:
of course. i want to spread the love, joy and happiness that is nuclear hellfire.