[Mefustae]

Well, I now remember that it was the Yom Kippur War that was mentioned, but beyond that i'm at a loss at the moment finding online backup for that particular tidbit. Come to think of it, I was interrupted halfway through by a mate, so there is a good chance I misread it. However, my point remains valid, making a large attack shortly before a ceasefire comes into effect is just bad sportsmanship [for lack of a better term].

[Sandwich]

Fine, I can accept that kind of criticism, but you'd better be looking at both sides when you make that statement.

[vyper]

The attached image is NOT REAL (AFAIK), but it's still amusing... sorta...

Okay, now you've just sickened me.

[NGTM-1R]

And how many people do you think are more willing to join Hezbollah now?  The whole point is that any terrorist or insurgent network gains support from engaging a larger foe; it's very much the 'plucky underdog' effect that gives them strength, allowing the justification of the likes of terrorist attacks as a response to an inability to fight symmetrically.  Terrorists aren't measured in military strength; they're measured in their ability to operate within a civillian population, and with the tacit support of that population.  I don't think Israel has done anything to erode that support base  - I'd say history proves the opposite will occur, with short term losses being recuperated by the desire for revenge in South Lebanon.

If we were talking about the PLO or a similar organization, you would be right. But we aren't. Hezbollah is a considerably more sophisicated organization. They don't take people off the street, give them an AK-47, and call them fighters. Hezbollah makes an attempt at training and discpline. Even a cursory glance at their tactics proves that they are not a traditional terrorist organization. They haven't responded with a suicide-bombing campaign, but with Katyushas. There is a much greater level of technical sophistication at work here. This requires skills, skills which are not common among civilians in that part of the world. They must be taught. Similarly Hezbollah has made a serious attempt to engage the IDF and at least slow them down. They have demonstrated some understanding of basic infantry tactics. They've made use of crewed support weapons. Again, skills that must be taught. Hezbollah is not, at least in Lebanon, a terrorist organization in the conventional sense of the words. The proper parallel here would be a militia. Those are measured in military strength. Yes, they may well have more recruits now (but see below), but those recruits must still be trained and equipped.

Further you chose to overlook the pyschological factor. Hezbollah attempted to stand. The IDF mopped the floor with them like every other opponent Israel's armed forces have ever faced. That Hezbollah tried to stop the IDF or slow them down, and failed, is indisputeable. They can hardly claim victory. At best the kill ratio here was 1-to-5 in the IDF's favor. It may well have been more. Being crushed is never good for morale. A lot of Hezbollah people have seen just how futile their leadership's attempt was. How many of them will keep the faith as they have before? Similarly, how many are really going to be eager to join an organization that is the at the top of the IDF's hitlist, when the IDF has just demonstrated how lethal they can be?

It's also worthwhile to note that CNN was just reporting (yay for Larry King Live not being Larry King) the average citizen of Lebanon considers that Hezbollah brought down the wrath of the IDF on them for no good reason. And that Hezbollah is tactly acknowledging it's their fault by offering to pay for reconstruction of damaged civilian properties.

[Sandwich]

Actually, I must correct a couple of things there. Hezbollah is still a terrorist organization; using suicide tactics is not a requirement for the "terrorist" status. As the name states, generation of terror among civilian populations is the mainstay, and that, I'm sorry to say, Hezbollah has excelled at. With over a million Israelis having evacuated their homes in the Northern quarter of Israel, true terror was achieved quite effectively by those Katyushas.

Additionally, the IDF did not win the war nearly so handily as you might think. Read any of the English-language news coming out of here; there's not many at all who think this was a victory. At best, it was a stalemate. Sure, we could have won by carpet bombing them, but civilian casualties would have been horrendous - unacceptable. We also could have won by a prolonged ground engagement (which the leadership seemed to be heading for when the ceasefire was agreed upon), but the cost in IDF soldiers' lives would have been far too high.

No, Israel did not win this war. Had we won it, Hezbollah would not be merely licking its wounds and regrouping for the next assault. Had we won, the grip of the Hezbollah (and let's not forget their retarded bastard child down in Gaza, the Hamas) over their people would have been shattered, their influence of no further significance.

[NGTM-1R]

Perhaps, but my point was not that they are not terrorists, but that they do not behave as such. (Edited previous post for clarity.)

Similarly I never claimed the IDF won; merely that it smashed all who directly tried to oppose it. I know they had much broader objectives then they were given the time to accomplish, but from a purely "who's holding the battlefield" and "who's the kill ratio in favor of" the IDF did win. It was not the complete victory they sought, and perhaps not a political victory at all. But on the battlefield they were victorious.

[karajorma]

The problem is that Hezbollah has claimed victory. And the Lebanese tend to believe them somewhat.

[Mefustae]

Similarly I never claimed the IDF won; merely that it smashed all who directly tried to oppose it. I know they had much broader objectives then they were given the time to accomplish, but from a purely "who's holding the battlefield" and "who's the kill ratio in favor of" the IDF did win. It was not the complete victory they sought, and perhaps not a political victory at all. But on the battlefield they were victorious.

On the basis of the disparity between military resources and capabilities between Hezbollah and the IDF, i'm going to disagree with you on that assertion. Yes, Israel dominated the battlefield wherever Hezbollah chose to fight openly, but the fact remains that the IDF should by all means have been much more effective in their strikes.

[Kosh]

A kill ratio of 1-5 isn't too bad considering that the IDF uses state of the art western, while Hezbollah is stuck with 50's and 60's era Soviet stuff.

[aldo_14]

Both sides have different definitions of victory, in any case.  I would venture this may perhaps be part of the reason why it's called 'asymmetric' warfare.

[Rictor]

A kill ratio of 1-5 isn't too bad considering that the IDF uses state of the art western, while Hezbollah is stuck with 50's and 60's era Soviet stuff.

Actually, most of Hezbollah's kills have come from fairly modern ATGMs and RPGs. From what I've heard, they mostly have Russian Saggers, Metis' and RPG-29s, but also European MILANs and American TOWs (the date on the box said 2001). These are by no means 60s weapons, they are from the 80s and 90s and are capable of defeating the armour on any tank currently in existance, even Merkavas.

I would venture a guess that if Hezbollah didn't have these sorts of advanced weapons, they wouldn't have fared nearly so well. What seperates them from Hamas and Fatah, which Israel are so used to defeating, is partially training but also armament.

[aldo_14]

No doubt the Iranians can provide a bunch of stuff, too.  Perhaps even stuff can be bought on the black market and smuggled in Iraq? (ok, this is a wild stab; but I think it's plausible)

[Sandwich]

The reason I say the war was a failure for Israel is that it failed to achieve one of the two primary goals. One goal, which apparently has been reached (so far, though not through the means desired), was the cessation of the Katyusha rocket barrages on Israel. A ceasefire, not the destruction of Hezbollah, brought that goal about.

But we utterly failed at achieving the second goal: the return of our kidnapped soldiers.