Need a fifth option.
But honestly, for modeling, it hardly matters at all what program you use. Some are marginally easier (MAX) or more difficult (Maya, POV-Ray, arguably Lightwave), but each has its own advantages and disadvantage, and by the time you're any good you'll have mastered whatever program you use to such a degree that it would make no difference (and this'll happen at about the same time no matter what you use).
Choose whatever program you get for its rendering capacities- in those, programs are not all created equal, and each has a completely different system, some clearly better or worse. For rendering capacities, I'd recommend MAX in a cost-blind comparison to all those, because it's essentially modular due to its plugins, giving you the ability to add almost any capability you want- hair, radiosity, procedurals. LightWave would probably win out if you're on a budget, as it's cheaper even to start with and comes with many of the most common advanced functions, as well as the unbeatable Hypervoxel system.
If you're REALLY on a budget, either free Blender or Carrara/Raydream (well, of course I'm gonna include my tool of choice), which have a degree of plugin capability. Carrara 2.0 is really more like a slightly lesser LightWave now, as what isn't included in the package comes relatively cheap. Only thing is, its particle system is no good for the sort of things you normally use particles for. If particles (explosions and the like) are at all important to you, go LightWave instead.
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