[Gank]

Originally posted by Admiral Nelson
China has nothing like the sort of shipping required to mount an effective invasion of Taiwan.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/navy.htm

With 40 odd true amphibs, they aren't going to be getting much of that huge army across the straight, unless they plan on packing them into various frieghters and the like...

Taiwan has a standing army of 200,000, not to mention 1.5 million reservists, all trained specifically to repel a Chinese invasion. Without a huge increase in amphibious shipping and marines, China would be acheiving little more than putting its ships and men into a meatgrinder trying to invade.

You're thinking in ww2 style tactics, mass invasion on the beach. If China does ever launch an amphibious invasion of Taiwan, its likely to come after they've reduced most of the island to rubble and then only likely to be aimed at securing a port/airfield which they certainly have the ability to do.

Originally posted by Admiral Nelson
Note too that China has no Brahmos or Yakhonts at present, they have merely been offered for installation on its two destroyers ordered from Russia. These ships are still under construction. Even when completed, that will give the Chinese a total of two ships equipped with Yakhont. At present China has two -- count 'em -- two modern destroyers (the US has about 80).

The Brahmos and Yahkont were mentioned in a future conflict context, which is what any US-China conflict will be. One of the modified Sovremenny's has been finished and will soon join the 2 other Sovremenny's already in Chinese service you neglected to mention. Both of these are armed with Moskits, which pose a great danger to any US carriers. China is also engaged in seperate negotiations with India and Russia over aquiring Brahmos and Yahkonts as well as air launched moskits.

You're neglecting to mention its Song, Ming and Kilo class subs as well, which may be diesel but still pose a considerable threat, particularly in coastal waters around taiwan.

Originally posted by Admiral Nelson
As for China's air force, where is it going to acquire all the ramp space near Taiwan to get even the smallest fraction of its aircraft in the air at one time? Most of China's aircraft will be low on feul the minute they even reach Taiwan. They have acquired 40 Su-27s and plan to build more, but this is still very much a future threat.

China has 250 Su-27/30s in its inventory and plans buy or build a further 150 in addition to 1200+ other fighters in service. They also have plenty of runways around Tiawan to put enough planes over the island as well as tankers to keep them there.

[Admiral Nelson]

Originally posted by Gank

You're thinking in ww2 style tactics, mass invasion on the beach. If China does ever launch an amphibious invasion of Taiwan, its likely to come after they've reduced most of the island to rubble and then only likely to be aimed at securing a port/airfield which they certainly have the ability to do.

Reducing Taiwan to rubble would leave China forever condemned in the eyes of the world. With the sanctions and blockade that would inevitably follow, how long would the Communist party stay in power as millions of Chinese become unemployed? It just isn't a realistic scenario in today's world. Moreover, of what value would a rubbled Taiwan be to China?

The Brahmos and Yahkont were mentioned in a future conflict context, which is what any US-China conflict will be. One of the modified Sovremenny's has been finished and will soon join the 2 other Sovremenny's already in Chinese service you neglected to mention. Both of these are armed with Moskits, which pose a great danger to any US carriers. China is also engaged in seperate negotiations with India and Russia over aquiring Brahmos and Yahkonts as well as air launched moskits.

These are the 2 modern destroyers I mentioned above. How are a mere 2, or even 4 destroyers going to get anywhere near a US CVBG to put these weapons to use? China is many, many years away from putting a significant fleet to sea.

You're neglecting to mention its Song, Ming and Kilo class subs as well, which may be diesel but still pose a considerable threat, particularly in coastal waters around taiwan.

The Chinese have beaten the heck out of their Kilos, they've had to send several back to Russia for repairs. The Song appears to be half decent, but only 2 are in service. The ancient Mings are of little threat to anyone but their crews!

China has 250 Su-27/30s in its inventory and plans buy or build a further 150 in addition to 1200+ other fighters in service. They also have plenty of runways around Tiawan to put enough planes over the island as well as tankers to keep them there.

Yeah, I goofed on the rate of production; they have managed to get that number into service already. AFAIK, however, China has a mere 10 modified Tu-16 tankers in service, and are beleived to have ordered a few Midas tankers from Russia.
These aircraft are indeed a significant threat; do note Taiwan's acquisition of 150 f-16s, 60 Mirage 2000s, ~120? IDCs. Coupled with Taiwan's purchase of Patriot SAMs, the Chinese certainly won't find the air battle over Taiwan to be any cakewalk.

[pyro-manic]

China + USA = BIG ****ING MESS.

Easy as that. No winners, only losers. Millions of civilian casualties, global economic meltdown, both sides lose pretty much all their military.

Happy days, eh?

[Gank]

Originally posted by Admiral Nelson
Reducing Taiwan to rubble would leave China forever condemned in the eyes of the world. With the sanctions and blockade that would inevitably follow, how long would the Communist party stay in power as millions of Chinese become unemployed? It just isn't a realistic scenario in today's world. Moreover, of what value would a rubbled Taiwan be to China?

Sanctions imposed by who? The UN? Hardly likely seeing how China has a veto on any resolutions. US enforced sanctions are likely to hurt the US more than China. And how exactly is a nation the size of China going to be blockaded?

Originally posted by Admiral Nelson
These are the 2 modern destroyers I mentioned above. How are a mere 2, or even 4 destroyers going to get anywhere near a US CVBG to put these weapons to use? China is many, many years away from putting a significant fleet to sea.

Sure the fleet is small, and head to head wouldnt last long in a naval engagement, but you're assuming here the Chinese are going to sent the dds out into the open sea to engage the carriers. In order for its airplanes to be effective a cv has to park itself just off the coast, leaving it vunerable to a hit and run attack by one or more dds or even fast attack boats. A single moskit is enough to put a carrier out of action, and the Sovremmeny's carry 8 tubes each. A single Yahkont will sink a carrier.

Originally posted by Admiral Nelson
The Chinese have beaten the heck out of their Kilos, they've had to send several back to Russia for repairs. The Song appears to be half decent, but only 2 are in service. The ancient Mings are of little threat to anyone but their crews!

A torpedo from a ming will kill as quick as one from an Akula, and only a stupid captain would ignore them off because they're obsolete. And theres at least 3 songs in service

Originally posted by Admiral Nelson
Yeah, I goofed on the rate of production; they have managed to get that number into service already. AFAIK, however, China has a mere 10 modified Tu-16 tankers in service, and are beleived to have ordered a few Midas tankers from Russia.
These aircraft are indeed a significant threat; do note Taiwan's acquisition of 150 f-16s, 60 Mirage 2000s, ~120? IDCs. Coupled with Taiwan's purchase of Patriot SAMs, the Chinese certainly won't find the air battle over Taiwan to be any cakewalk.

Not a cakewalk, but they would win. China has another 500 modern fighters based on the Mig-33 and Lavi about to or starting to enter production as well as fighter bombers like the JH-7. The IDF btw is a Taiwanese design based on the F-5.

Also the three batteries of patriots Taiwan has are pac-2s, these have a poor record against ballistic missiles like Scuds, I wouldnt count on them being too effective against aircraft. Most likely they'll be used to try and stop some of the incoming surface to surface missiles.

[Shrike]

Originally posted by IceFire
At the heart of capitalism lies China....because everything is "Made in China".  I doubt the two could go to war...it'd be crippling to both.

Guess who France's biggest trading partner was in 1914?

Guess who Germany's biggest trading partner was in 1914?

If you answered Germany to A and France to B, you're correct.

Economic interdependence is no guarantee of continuing peace.

As for China versus the US in a military conflict, considering how concerned the chinese over the US's success in the gulf, I'd say they don't see the US as an easy opponent at all, especially not like some of the anti-US wanking going on.  Their almost frantic race to upgrade their military should suggest that they see their military as overall inferior to that of the US.

I should also point out that beating the **** out of a large, cold war style military like China's is what the US military has been designed to do for generations.  Why do you think the US has trouble during the occupation of Iraq but steamrolled during the actual invasion?

[Bobboau]

"Economic interdependence is no guarantee of continuing peace."

it helps though

[Gank]

Originally posted by Shrike
As for China versus the US in a military conflict, considering how concerned the chinese over the US's success in the gulf, I'd say they don't see the US as an easy opponent at all, especially not like some of the anti-US wanking going on.  Their almost frantic race to upgrade their military should suggest that they see their military as overall inferior to that of the US.

Of course they wouldnt see the US as an easy opponent, although I doubt the mass tank rush over a 30 mile country while taking potshots at conscripts in their T-55s had anything to do with it. Easy or not though the fact remains that the US is not going to invade and occupy a country of 1 billion+ people. And Chinas modernisation isnt "almost frantic", its steady and in line with their economic growth.

Originally posted by Shrike
I should also point out that beating the **** out of a large, cold war style military like China's is what the US military has been designed to do for generations.  Why do you think the US has trouble during the occupation of Iraq but steamrolled during the actual invasion?

US steamrolled Iraq because the Iraqis didnt fight in large numbers. US bought off top commanders who told their men to go home, had they actually fought thing might have been a little different as the events at Umm Qasr and Basra showed.

btw anti-US wanking? as opposed to pro-US wanking?

[jdjtcagle]

Originally posted by pyro-manic
China + USA = BIG ****ING MESS.

Easy as that. No winners, only losers. Millions of civilian casualties, global economic meltdown, both sides lose pretty much all their military.

Happy days, eh?

...Very well said...

[Mr. Vega]

And none of you have said anything about the prospect of the Chinese using guerilla warfare.

[Admiral Nelson]

Originally posted by Gank
Sanctions imposed by who? The UN? Hardly likely seeing how China has a veto on any resolutions. US enforced sanctions are likely to hurt the US more than China. And how exactly is a nation the size of China going to be blockaded?

By the US and EU. That would be enough. If the Chinese really reduced Taiwan to rubble, you won;t find a soul willing to trade with them again. The USN would be more than up to the job of blockading China. It would of coure be impossible to prevent smuggling etc, but you certainly won't be seeing any container ships coming in and out of Chinese ports in the face of the US Navy.

Sure the fleet is small, and head to head wouldnt last long in a naval engagement, but you're assuming here the Chinese are going to sent the dds out into the open sea to engage the carriers. In order for its airplanes to be effective a cv has to park itself just off the coast, leaving it vunerable to a hit and run attack by one or more dds or even fast attack boats. A single moskit is enough to put a carrier out of action, and the Sovremmeny's carry 8 tubes each. A single Yahkont will sink a carrier.

In a hypothetical Chinese attack on Taiwan, the US carriers would sit off of the east coast of Taiwan, making using of tanking assets to take down Chiense aircraft and ships. The The DDs could either come out of port to attack, or sit in port to do nothing. Let's not forget that each CVBG has at least 3 Aegis crusiers/destroyers escorting it, with hundreds of missles in total designed for the express of intercepting weapons such as the Yakhont. Not to mention the question of how the Sovs are going to target the CVBG in the first place, or survive to get in range.

I wouldn't count on a single Yahont sinking a carrier, either. Look at the enomous punishment FRANKLIN took; a super carrier is many times more durable than that.

A torpedo from a ming will kill as quick as one from an Akula, and only a stupid captain would ignore them off because they're obsolete. And theres at least 3 songs in service

Perhaps, but unlike an Akula, the WWII technology Ming hasn't a chance of getting a firing solution against a modern CVBG without being detected and sunk.

Not a cakewalk, but they would win. China has another 500 modern fighters based on the Mig-33 and Lavi about to or starting to enter production as well as fighter bombers like the JH-7. The IDF btw is a Taiwanese design based on the F-5.

The IDF is more similar to an F-16, its rather an odd bird.

Also the three batteries of patriots Taiwan has are pac-2s, these have a poor record against ballistic missiles like Scuds, I wouldnt count on them being too effective against aircraft. Most likely they'll be used to try and stop some of the incoming surface to surface missiles.

I sure would not want to be in an aircraft on the receiving end of
a PAC-2.  An anti air engagement is not at all similar to a Scud intercept.

China and Taiwan will periodically throw out all kinds of bluster at one another, but don't expect to see a Chinese invasion any time soon. There is too much to lose and too little a chance of success for them to try it.

As for a US invasion of mainland China, it is impossible to conceive of a scenario in which the US would try this. What possible purpose could it serve? What would the US hope to achieve? The US military needs to worry about plausible situations, and not things which will never happen.

[Mr. Vega]

3 Aegis crusiers/destroyers escorting it

It was said earlier that a Yahkont was specifically designed to outmaneuver Aegis systems.

[ionia23]

In the recent remake of "On The Beach", world war III begins with the US and China losing the ability to hold civilized discussions over Taiwan.

Worth renting, btw.

[jdjtcagle]

That's it I'll settle this... I'm making a CIV3 Map right now

[Shrike]

Well ****, I lost the reply I was writing just as I was about to finish.  Anyhow, take a look here.  Just skimming it should show that China is looking to aggressively upgrade its warfighting abilities.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/2004/d20040528prc.pdf

[Gank]

Originally posted by Admiral Nelson
By the US and EU. That would be enough. If the Chinese really reduced Taiwan to rubble, you won;t find a soul willing to trade with them again. The USN would be more than up to the job of blockading China. It would of coure be impossible to prevent smuggling etc, but you certainly won't be seeing any container ships coming in and out of Chinese ports in the face of the US Navy.

Here you're presuming the EU would back up the US in a conflict with China, no guarantees they would. As for trade, nobody blinked an eye when Russia reduced Grozny to rubble. People may condemn it, but at the end of the day governments look after their own interests first, and trade with China is a big interest to most of the developed world. And yeah the US could blockade Chinas ports, but how exactly are they going to prevent trade being conducted across its borders, not exactly an island you know.

Originally posted by Admiral Nelson
Let's not forget that each CVBG has at least 3 Aegis crusiers/destroyers escorting it, with hundreds of missles in total designed for the express of intercepting weapons such as the Yakhont.

An Aegis cruiser is not designed to intercept Yahkonts or Sunburns, these missiles are designed to defeat Aegis cruisers defences. Both missiles travel at mach2-3 at 5 meters above the sea. The best chance an Aegis has of stopping one is driving into its flight path

Originally posted by Admiral Nelson
Not to mention the question of how the Sovs are going to target the CVBG in the first place, or survive to get in range.

Yahkonts has a range of 300km and Moskit 250km, the DDs dont have to get too close too launch. Most likely they would make their attack as part of a combined air/naval/ss misile assault using other forces attacks to distract the US while they got within range, and as pointed out, they dont need to be too close. Chinese military doctrine has always been about hitting a technologically superior foe with massed technologically inferior forces in the right place at the right time.

Originally posted by Admiral Nelson
I wouldn't count on a single Yahont sinking a carrier, either. Look at the enomous punishment FRANKLIN took; a super carrier is many times more durable than that.

Franklin was hit by two iron bombs, Moskit and Yahkonts are supersonic cruise missiles designed to destroy or disable carriers a with one hit. 2 bombs is hardly enormous punishment btw, and the Franklin never went to sea again after them. Even slight dmage to the flight deck or a minor list is enough to put the carrier out of the fight, and a single Yahkont or Sunburn is easily capable of this. A 4 ton object hitting a ship at mach 3 is going to make a mess of it regardless of how heavilly armoured it is.

Originally posted by Admiral Nelson
Perhaps, but unlike an Akula, the WWII technology Ming hasn't a chance of getting a firing solution against a modern CVBG without being detected and sunk.

 WW2 is stretching it, and it has a chance, a very small one but mass 30 boats on one carrier and those odds arent that bad anymore. Dont think the chinese wouldnt sacrifice a couple of dozen ancient subs if they thought there was a decent chance of putting a carrier out of action, and a single torpedo is all it takes.

Originally posted by Admiral Nelson
I sure would not want to be in an aircraft on the receiving end of
a PAC-2.  An anti air engagement is not at all similar to a Scud intercept.

PAC-2s had poor success in engaging Scuds over Israel and Saudi, Scuds are primitave ballistic missiles which fly at a set trajectory. The chances of a PAC-2 taking out a manuevering object like a plane are slim. Taiwan relys on Hawks and homegrown SkyBows for this, the patriots are for ssms.

Originally posted by Admiral Nelson
China and Taiwan will periodically throw out all kinds of bluster at one another, but don't expect to see a Chinese invasion any time soon. There is too much to lose and too little a chance of success for them to try it.

True, although I think you're underestimating their chances of success, in a sustained conflict between the two there would only be one winner.

Originally posted by Admiral Nelson
As for a US invasion of mainland China, it is impossible to conceive of a scenario in which the US would try this. What possible purpose could it serve? What would the US hope to achieve? The US military needs to worry about plausible situations, and not things which will never happen.

Again true, like I already said, any fighting would likely be done through proxys.

[Flipside]

Both China and the US are self-contained environemts, they can produce just about everything they need on home soil, not including luxuries, but if China were cut off from the rest of the world, they would carry on quite nicely thank you, so could America, though with less ease for the populous.

The reason they are both walking the same path at the moment is because they both share an Achilles heel, and they need to deal with that before they can start looking at each other suspiciously again

[Corsair]

China sorta needs oil...and food...or are those luxuries? The U.S. needs oil too...we aren't self-sufficient, are we?

[Admiral Nelson]

Here is an interesting article on this very subject with a provocative conclusion -- straight from the Naval War College in Rhode Island:

http://www.nwc.navy.mil/press/Review/2003/Summer/art3-su3.htm

[Admiral Nelson]

Originally posted by Gank

Here you're presuming the EU would back up the US in a conflict with China, no guarantees they would. As for trade, nobody blinked an eye when Russia reduced Grozny to rubble. People may condemn it, but at the end of the day governments look after their own interests first, and trade with China is a big interest to most of the developed world. And yeah the US could blockade Chinas ports, but how exactly are they going to prevent trade being conducted across its borders, not exactly an island you know.

China's rail/road links with other nations are very poor. Nearly all its trade is moved via ship. It would of course not be possible to stop all trade, but very possible to cripple China's economy.

An Aegis cruiser is not designed to intercept Yahkonts or Sunburns, these missiles are designed to defeat Aegis cruisers defences. Both missiles travel at mach2-3 at 5 meters above the sea. The best chance an Aegis has of stopping one is driving into its flight path

Given Chinas past maintainence record, it would be lucky to keep 2 of its 4 DDs at sea at one time. That gives them 16 missles to loft towards the US carriers. The main problem here being....

Yahkonts has a range of 300km and Moskit 250km, the DDs dont have to get too close too launch. Most likely they would make their attack as part of a combined air/naval/ss misile assault using other forces attacks to distract the US while they got within range, and as pointed out, they dont need to be too close. Chinese military doctrine has always been about hitting a technologically superior foe with massed technologically inferior forces in the right place at the right time.

The DDs need something to provide them with targeting data at that range. The question is what will enable the Chinese to track, target and then hand off that data to the ships for firing? They're recce assets are poor, and would have to fly right over Taiwan itself to get at the US CVBGs. Not an attractive prospect.

PAC-2s had poor success in engaging Scuds over Israel and Saudi, Scuds are primitave ballistic missiles which fly at a set trajectory. The chances of a PAC-2 taking out a manuevering object like a plane are slim. Taiwan relys on Hawks and homegrown SkyBows for this, the patriots are for ssms.

The trouble with the Scuds wasn't so much in hitting them, but in hitting the wrong part of the missle. The patrot's hit the larger fuel tank part of the scud, and not the smaller warhead. The Patriot is a serious threat indeed to any aircraft going...


Anyways, thanks Gank for an interesting discusion.

What would happen if the Chinese were to acquire a high poly Seth?? wink wink....

[Gank]

Originally posted by Admiral Nelson
China's rail/road links with other nations are very poor. Nearly all its trade is moved via ship. It would of course not be possible to stop all trade, but very possible to cripple China's economy.

As pointed out, Chinas largely self sufficent except in the area of oil, though I'm sure a good bit of this comes overland from russia.

Originally posted by Admiral Nelson
Given Chinas past maintainence record, it would be lucky to keep 2 of its 4 DDs at sea at one time. That gives them 16 missles to loft towards the US carriers. The main problem here being....

16 missiles of Moskit or Yah'konts variety targeted on a CV is a guarenteed kill.

Originally posted by Admiral Nelson
The DDs need something to provide them with targeting data at that range. The question is what will enable the Chinese to track, target and then hand off that data to the ships for firing? They're recce assets are poor, and would have to fly right over Taiwan itself to get at the US CVBGs. Not an attractive prospect.

They've got these things called radars nowadays, you can put them on land, ships, airplanes, submarines. China has at least 3 over the horizon radars, contrary to what the article you posted says.

Originally posted by Admiral Nelson
The trouble with the Scuds wasn't so much in hitting them, but in hitting the wrong part of the missle. The patrot's hit the larger fuel tank part of the scud, and not the smaller warhead. The Patriot is a serious threat indeed to any aircraft going...

Umm, no they didnt, PAC-2 missiles dont impact with the target, they use a proximity fuse. I dont see how you could possibly argue that they are a credible threat to aircraft given their shoddy record against missiles on set trajectorys. Besides, they wont be used in this role, the tiawanese aquired them to counter China's SRBM treat.

Originally posted by Admiral Nelson
What would happen if the Chinese were to acquire a high poly Seth?? wink wink....

Wouldnt really affect the balance of power that much.