[Corsair]

Originally posted by Admiral Nelson
Here is an interesting article on this very subject with a provocative conclusion -- straight from the Naval War College in Rhode Island:

http://www.nwc.navy.mil/press/Review/2003/Summer/art3-su3.htm

Interesting indeed....*goes off and muses possibilities*

[übermetroid]

Originally posted by Gank
The Brahmos and Yahkont were mentioned in a future conflict context, which is what any US-China conflict will be.

Ok, then we get the new and improved star wars system, orbital anti-bunker missiles, stealth fighters and ships, and exoskeleton body armor for the troops complete with night and IFR vision...  

EDIT:  Oh yea, we also get lasers on our 747s designed to take out missiles.  
EDIT #2:  I wonder when the lasers will be put on ships?  

[neo_hermes]

Originally posted by ubermetroid
exoskeleton body armor for the troops complete with night and IFR vision...  

dude imgaine...Infantry running around carring miniguns with thousands of rounds of ammo strapped to their backs...

[übermetroid]

Originally posted by neo_hermes
dude imgaine...Infantry running around carring miniguns with thousands of rounds of ammo strapped to their backs...

  Sounds like a new video game!

[Janos]

Originally posted by neo_hermes


dude imgaine...Infantry running around carring miniguns with thousands of rounds of ammo strapped to their backs...

And then the Machine Tentacle Monsters overrun their defences, but the little kid saves the day (for a while)?

Oh yeah, and Gank:
How the hell is China going to find the CVBG? It's not the easiest task, you know. US carriers are tremendously durable - destroying it requires A LOT of weaponry. And the carriers themselves have quite a defensive screen, which you should be able to surpass to attack the CV itself (and you would need to get close enough to fire the **** anyways).

[TrashMan]

Originally posted by neo_hermes


dude imgaine...Infantry running around carring miniguns with thousands of rounds of ammo strapped to their backs...

It's closer then you think!

I'm keeping track on military development, and they are making progress in "smart" armours filled with sensors and microcomputers.
Lately, they have made a braketrough with exoskeleton armour, but details are sketchy at best....

[Gank]

Originally posted by ubermetroid




Ok, then we get the new and improved star wars system, orbital anti-bunker missiles, stealth fighters and ships, and exoskeleton body armor for the troops complete with night and IFR vision...  

Future as in 2-3 years, if it happened now US isnt in a position to fight due to Iraq.

Originally posted by Janos
Oh yeah, and Gank:
How the hell is China going to find the CVBG? It's not the easiest task, you know. US carriers are tremendously durable - destroying it requires A LOT of weaponry. And the carriers themselves have quite a defensive screen, which you should be able to surpass to attack the CV itself (and you would need to get close enough to fire the **** anyways).

Try reading the thread.

[Admiral Nelson]

Originally posted by Gank

As pointed out, Chinas largely self sufficent except in the area of oil, though I'm sure a good bit of this comes overland from russia.

Other than the blockade destroying China's economy.... Sure, they could feed themselves, but imagine all those millions of workers standing around outside their shuttered factories suddenly unemployed. All those skyscrapers in Shanghai suddenly empty, no more FDI ever, etc etc.... How long with the Communist Party survive??

16 missiles of Moskit or Yah'konts variety targeted on a CV is a guarenteed kill.


They've got these things called radars nowadays, you can put them on land, ships, airplanes, submarines. China has at least 3 over the horizon radars, contrary to what the article you posted says.

The US also has these things called radars, mounted on such vessels... Expect the OTH radars (if they even exist) to eat t'hawks straight away in any conflict. exect also to see those Sovremmenys' bow and stern at a 90 degree angle to the ocean after they eat a mk-48 each. Really, the USN is well aware of the threat posed by Yakhont and Moskit and has spent the last decade working on means to deal with the threat. These aren't magic weapons.

Umm, no they didnt, PAC-2 missiles dont impact with the target, they use a proximity fuse. I dont see how you could possibly argue that they are a credible threat to aircraft given their shoddy record against missiles on set trajectorys. Besides, they wont be used in this role, the tiawanese aquired them to counter China's SRBM treat.

The point is the patriots fused against the wrong part of the Scud, not whether or not the missle physicaly hit it.  The patriot was designed first and foremost as a SAM, and is every it as good as the SA-300 in this role. Not to mention the rest of the missles Taiwan has available.

[Gank]

Originally posted by Admiral Nelson
Other than the blockade destroying China's economy.... Sure, they could feed themselves, but imagine all those millions of workers standing around outside their shuttered factories suddenly unemployed. All those skyscrapers in Shanghai suddenly empty, no more FDI ever, etc etc.... How long with the Communist Party survive??

 This isnt the 18th century, a naval blockade isnt going to cripple any economy, please provide one example where it has. And even if the US did manage to cripple the Chinese economy someway, the communist party wouldnt lose power, for the simple reason that theres no viable alternative to it. Look at some historical examples of naval blockades in time of war, Germany during ww2. Did the economy collapse? no, were there millions of unemployed? no, germany had to bring in foreign workers and use pows as labour. A naval blocade will hurt an economy, but its not going to bring a country to its knees, besides after reading the article Shrike posted I'm not so sure the US could actually blockade the whole of China.

Originally posted by Admiral Nelson
The US also has these things called radars, mounted on such vessels... Expect the OTH radars (if they even exist) to eat t'hawks straight away in any conflict. exect also to see those Sovremmenys' bow and stern at a 90 degree angle to the ocean after they eat a mk-48 each. Really, the USN is well aware of the threat posed by Yakhont and Moskit and has spent the last decade working on means to deal with the threat. These aren't magic weapons.

OTH radars do exist, read the article Shrike posted. Tomahawks travel at 500mph, they're fine for blowing up **** in third world countries but China has SA-20s, which would turn a tomahawk strike into a very expensive fireworks show. Thats presuming the US knows where they are, Chinese are very proficient at camoflage. As for the USNs ways to deal with Yahkonts, they have nothing in service which can counter them yet, and wont have for quite some time. They arent magic weapons, but they are assymetrical equalisers, or assassins maces as the article Shrike posted says.

Originally posted by Admiral Nelson
The point is the patriots fused against the wrong part of the Scud, not whether or not the missle physicaly hit it.  The patriot was designed first and foremost as a SAM, and is every it as good as the SA-300 in this role. Not to mention the rest of the missles Taiwan has available.

The patriots didnt "fuse" against the wrong part of the missile, they missed completely or just knocked the missile off course. Stop making stuff up. Its a moot point anyways, Tiawan bought the Patriots specifically to counter Chinas SRBM threat, and given the amount of those aimed at the island they wont be wasting any on planes.

One other thing nobodys brought up, how many people of Chinese descent are in the US, and how many people of US descent in China?

[Admiral Nelson]

Originally posted by Gank

 This isnt the 18th century, a naval blockade isnt going to cripple any economy, please provide one example where it has. And even if the US did manage to cripple the Chinese economy someway, the communist party wouldnt lose power, for the simple reason that theres no viable alternative to it. Look at some historical examples of naval blockades in time of war, Germany during ww2. Did the economy collapse? no, were there millions of unemployed? no, germany had to bring in foreign workers and use pows as labour. A naval blocade will hurt an economy, but its not going to bring a country to its knees, besides after reading the article Shrike posted I'm not so sure the US could actually blockade the whole of China.

Since every German was a solider or working in a weapons factory or dead, of course their asn't unemployment. A blockade of China would ruin its economy. Sure, if the communists want to clamp down on everyone and turn China into a mega North Korea, they can survive, but would they?

OTH radars do exist, read the article Shrike posted. Tomahawks travel at 500mph, they're fine for blowing up **** in third world countries but China has SA-20s, which would turn a tomahawk strike into a very expensive fireworks show. Thats presuming the US knows where they are, Chinese are very proficient at camoflage. As for the USNs ways to deal with Yahkonts, they have nothing in service which can counter them yet, and wont have for quite some time. They arent magic weapons, but they are assymetrical equalisers, or assassins maces as the article Shrike posted says.

Heh. China _is_ a third world countty. Now its the SA-20 that's the latest miracle weapon, capable of defeating anything thrown against it. How many such systems do they have? Where are they deplayed? Will the US not target these sites?

As for not knowing where the radars are, if the Chinese turn them on then suddenly the US will know exactly where they are.

The patriots didnt "fuse" against the wrong part of the missile, they missed completely or just knocked the missile off course. Stop making stuff up. Its a moot point anyways, Tiawan bought the Patriots specifically to counter Chinas SRBM threat, and given the amount of those aimed at the island they wont be wasting any on planes.

Who is making stuff up? That's exactly the analysis I've read of Patriot effectiveness, viz.
http://www.cdi.org/issues/bmd/Patriot.html  amongst others. And if the PAC-2 is such a 'poor' weapon against SRBMs, as you claimed before, why did Taiwan buy them? Why would they use them against such targets if they can't hit them?

One other thing nobodys brought up, how many people of Chinese descent are in the US, and how many people of US descent in China?

Lots. Few.

[Gank]

Originally posted by Admiral Nelson

Since every German was a solider or working in a weapons factory or dead, of course their asn't unemployment. A blockade of China would ruin its economy. Sure, if the communists want to clamp down on everyone and turn China into a mega North Korea, they can survive, but would they?

You're living in dreamland if you think a naval blockade is going to bring China to its knees. It'll hurt its economy, but wont damage it. Besides if the US tries such an act they will find themselves at war fairly sharpish, which means every chinese will be working in a weapons factory, a soldier or dead. The odds of the US sucessfully embargoing the whole of Chinas coasts while at war arent all that great anyways.

Originally posted by Admiral Nelson
Heh. China _is_ a third world countty. Now its the SA-20 that's the latest miracle weapon, capable of defeating anything thrown against it. How many such systems do they have? Where are they deplayed? Will the US not target these sites?

Who the **** said anything about miracle weapons, a tomahawk is a 500mph drone, you could shoot it down with aaa. As for china being a third world country, it is, its also the worlds largest country and one of the fastest growing economys, and its also sitting beside the worlds leader in missile production who's starved for cash and selling off weapons to anyone who'll buy. And if you want to know the locations of Chinas sam sites, why dont you ask the Chinese government, I'm sure they'll tell you

Originally posted by Admiral Nelson
As for not knowing where the radars are, if the Chinese turn them on then suddenly the US will know exactly where they are.

The general area they're in, most likely there'll be a couple of dozen dummy sites around them to confuse any strikes that get through the air defences.

Originally posted by Admiral Nelson
Who is making stuff up? That's exactly the analysis I've read of Patriot effectiveness, viz.
http://www.cdi.org/issues/bmd/Patriot.html  amongst others. And if the PAC-2 is such a 'poor' weapon against SRBMs, as you claimed before, why did Taiwan buy them? Why would they use them against such targets if they can't hit them?

What that article is actually saying is the scuds broke up on reentry, and the patriots locked onto a seperate part of the broken up missile, not the wrong part of a whole one as I thought you were saying. As to why the Tiawanese bought them, name the alternative?

[Ghostavo]

Actually, China is a 2nd world nation, not third...

[Shrike]

I should note that you don't use a tomahawk against a radar installation, because a t-hawk required premission planning, instead, you use a HARM which seeks out active radar sites.

Personally I wouldn't be too convinced the russian missiles will sweep the seas of USN ships - the Yakhont only has 120km range in sea-skimming mode, which will likely be well within a USN defense ring, and the Sunburns aren't much better.  Plus, any realistic US deployment is going to have literally thousands of SAMs in the immediate area, plus all the carrier-based interceptors, plus carrier-based AWACS.

[Gank]

Originally posted by Shrike
Personally I wouldn't be too convinced the russian missiles will sweep the seas of USN ships - the Yakhont only has 120km range in sea-skimming mode, which will likely be well within a USN defense ring, and the Sunburns aren't much better.  Plus, any realistic US deployment is going to have literally thousands of SAMs in the immediate area, plus all the carrier-based interceptors, plus carrier-based AWACS.

Yahkonts arent going to sweep the seas of US ships, nobodys saying that, they can however put a cvbg out of action. 120km is the range for seaskimming the whole way, they'll probably use a mixed alttitude flight which has a range of 300km. As for US defences, the article you provided specifically says the US has no counter to the missiles. There was some other interesting stuff in there as well, like the Klub missiles is getting for its Songs and the Kryptons it has for its SU-30MKKs, both of which pose serious threats to naval vessels. Like it or not, China has the capability to take out one or more CVBGs. Whether they do or not in practise is another thing, but the means are there.

[Nico]

Various points:
Naval blockade worked against Cuba. That said, Cuba is a small island, whileChina is the largest country on Earth. Go figure.

China, a Third World country? My god, better read that than being blind.

Patriots: ask the IDF ( the Israelians ) how good they are. They suck, plain and simple.

Carriers: China may have outdated ships, subs and planes, but they have a ****load of them. If you align ONE more target than what the carrier fleet can handle, it's a sure hit. I don't think there's any pb for the chinese doing that.

Guerilla. As proven in Irak nowadays, the US army is unable to deal with that. And chinese have been used to doing guerilla ( against the japanese ) and proved they could do very well.

That's for defense. As for China invading another country? In their current military state, it's as possible as USA invading them. They can't, they just don't have the logistic to support a prolonged, distant war as they could on their own soil.

I read lots of funny things about WW3 in the 50 following years, chinas turning into the next big threat, etc, but get a gripe people, taht ain't gonna happen. Same goes for their exploding economy: they'll face the same thing every country faced at that point: growing health, growing understanding of the populace about their own rights, growing social requests, etc, which will slow down the whole thing w/o any external influence.

[Jetmech Jr.]

How's this sound to everybody?

US attacks China = Chinese Victory
China attacks US = US Victory

[Corsair]

Wasn't it that way in every major war of the 20th century?
To name a couple:
WWI - Germany attacks, Germany "loses"
WWII - Germany & Japan attack, Germany & Japan lose

Conclusion: Launching a war of aggression just isn't a smart thing to do anymore.

Hmmm....

[Jetmech Jr.]

Exactly, Corsair. Basically, with advantages available on each country's 'home turf,' the way it works is if you attack someone, and your not on at least neutral ground, your gonna get ****ed up, big time.

[Reez]

Uh... if you didn't realize, Germany conquered quite a bit before they lost. Meaning, they made a lot of area their territory, then ended up losing it cuz the US came in with overkill and blew the pants off of em. Remember that the allies won D-day, even though it was a massive attack on German territory.

[Jetmech Jr.]

I meant in current times, between the more powerful countries